Fox: Iran could have a nuclear weapon by 2012
Peter Hoskin 5:00pm
As Cairo smoulders, it's easy to forget about one of the most combustible ingredients in
the Middle Eastern cocktail – Iran. Yet the threat still exists, as Tony Blair and
Liam Fox have been keen to remind us. James Kirkup reports that the Defence Secretary has warned a Commons committee that Iran could have a nuclear
device as soon as next year.
Fox isn't the first to make the 2012 claim. The director of the CIA did so last year. And a recent article by the former UN weapons inspector David Albright and Andrea Stricker – which
I arrived at via Jeffrey Goldberg – explains just how Iran
might pull it off, in spite of recent setbacks:
Although, by my reckoning, this is the first time that a member of the coalition government has mentioned the possibility of 2012 in public. That alone makes it pretty noteworthy."Technically, Iran could decide to build a nuclear weapon now using the Natanz enrichment plant. The United States has estimated that Iran could produce enough weapon-grade uranium for a bomb in about one year. ISIS estimates Iran could halve that time to six months with advance preparation, and with somewhat better operation of the IR-1 centrifuges. U.N. experts say Iran knows enough now to build a crude weapon but faces problems in missile delivery.
At the same time, there is wide international consensus behind the U.S. estimate that Iran is unlikely to use the Natanz plant to dash to weapons in 2011 or 2012. It would have to divert a stock of low-enriched uranium under safeguards. Iran could try to delay inspectors' access to the enrichment plant, but the inspectors are highly likely to detect this diversion within two months, long before Iran could produce enough weapon-grade uranium for a bomb. The resulting international condemnation, and possible military strikes, would likely deter Iran from even trying to use Natanz.
In the longer term, thwarting Iran's growing options to develop a nuclear weapon remains a major challenge. If Iran built a secret site using more advanced centrifuges, it could be ready to build a bomb as soon as 2012 or 2013."
Previous
Cabbie
January 31st, 2011 5:18pm Report this commentWMD-40 minutes?
EC
January 31st, 2011 5:42pm Report this commentBlimey, it's twenty to six already. That only gives us two and a hours!
Fatbloke on tour
January 31st, 2011 5:42pm Report this commentPH
Foxy Loxy is just rattling his gums to remind us that he still exists.
He has no day job due to Dave reaming the armed forces so he has to try and look busy sometimes.
I think Foxy would be better off joining the back benches and scowling, he looks so out of place sitting in a cabinet of toffs and millionaires.
Dave the Rave and Cleggy probably have servants with better social manners and breeding than EK's finest Tory.
Erica Blair
January 31st, 2011 5:43pm Report this comment'Although, by my reckoning, this is the first time that a member of the coalition government has mentioned the possibility of 2012 in public. That alone makes it pretty noteworthy.'
Except it's Liam Fox, which makes it noteworthyless.
Florence of Arabia
January 31st, 2011 5:43pm Report this commentIran's the one we have to watch. They are very clever people. If there's any uprising against the mullahs, we should be supporting it. They would be our best ally in the Middle East.
Point of interest to those who don't know: the Iranians are not ethnic Arabs. The word Iran means Aryan. the same as us. They had a civilisation long pre-dating islam.
Fatbloke on tour
January 31st, 2011 5:51pm Report this commentErica B @ 5.43
You are right, Foxy Loxy has the gravitas and credibility of an underwear model.
He was out of his depth in the Beer Bar 30 years ago and the "Maggie" train he hitched himself to has been and gone.
Complete walloper, makes Dave a Sniffy look good, probably the only reason he has a job.
victor jara 67
January 31st, 2011 6:08pm Report this commentWell lets expect the neocons to be raising the beat of the war drums as they have being beating for the last two years.
Iran's great crime of course is not their murky human rights record (Shared by many neighbouring "friendly" states) or there sponsoring of resistance movements in Lebannon and Gaza But that they challenge US/Israeli domination of the region . In effect they upset the current power balance in the region. If Iran has a bomb then the other regimes then have to choose who to side with and there would not be many looking to the west.
The current events unfolding in the middle east with US sponsored dictators looking rather less secure. It makes for worrying times for Pax Americana.
Hence an apocalyptic narrative emerges about the Mullahs nuking poor little Israel equipped with its only nuclear arsenal courtesy of the US taxpayer. While the Mullahs are many things they are not suicidal enough to attack Israel. However this must be kept from a gullable public as the fear factor gets cranked up.
The Laughing Cavalier
January 31st, 2011 6:14pm Report this commentUnfortunately, the fat man's hero, the grinning charlatan, has poisoned the well. There is no hope of anyone taking warnings seriously after ancien regime's 40 minute porky. As for military action ...
Vulture
January 31st, 2011 6:23pm Report this comment@Laughing Cavalier:
fear not, don;t Dave's aircraft carriers come on stream around 2015.
Pity there won't be any aircraft to put on them, though. I'm sure the Mullahs will be quaking in their smelly slippers.
Rue Britannia. Carry on laughing.
Verity
January 31st, 2011 7:01pm Report this commentLaughing Cavalier - You're right. The waters are now opaque, thanks to Scary Blairy stirring the mud up.
yank
January 31st, 2011 7:32pm Report this commentVulture,
The air history museum near my home here has one of the old Swordfish "Stringbags" on display, so should be able to get that thing kitted out for service. I've got some nails and twine in the garage, and if you can supply the canvas and glue plaster....
TrevorsDen
January 31st, 2011 7:35pm Report this comment'gravitas and credibility of an underwear model' -- thats Chris Bryant surely.
A lot of gravitas there for a former Minister of State for Europe and Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs at the Foreign and Commonwealth Office.
And shadow justice minister.
Vulture - I read the carriers will only be entering service in 2016 and 18.
The F35s will only enter service in 2020 - if we are lucky.
All down to brilliant labour forward planning.
http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/UPDATE-2-Pentagon-delays-F-35-targetukfocus-351297277.html?x=0&.v=1
'The Pentagon overhauled the Lockheed Martin Corp F-35 fighter program for the second time in a year and said it would buy 41 Boeing Co F/A-18 warplanes over the next three years to offset slower production of the Lockheed plane.'
'schedule delays and massive cost overruns'
The 'vertical landing (STOVL) capabilities, was put on a two-year "probation," and could be canceled if Lockheed was unable to fix significant test problems.
--- thats the one Labour were relying on.
TrevorsDen
January 31st, 2011 7:52pm Report this commentVulture - explain the military strategy by which you intend to take on the world within the United Kingdom's GDP?
strapworld
January 31st, 2011 8:27pm Report this commentCabbie. Well said. I do not believe we will be taken in so soon after WMD.
Anyway, if Iran does manage to produce them Israel will have something to say about it. Trouble is they will not do any talking.
Perhaps Nostradamus was, allegedly, right on 2012?
Neil Turner
January 31st, 2011 9:34pm Report this commentOver to you then Israel.....
DZ
January 31st, 2011 10:18pm Report this commentIran has a nuclear-armed neighbour: Pakistan. There is no love lost between the two nations. What would one expect Iran to do when Pakistan created its bomb?
CB
January 31st, 2011 11:54pm Report this commentI am more optimistic. The apparent success of Stuxnet in thwarting normal operation of Iranian nuclear plants combined with the increasingly strict sanctions regime makes it very difficult for Iran to progress to the stage of nuclear weapons in anything like the timescale you outline.
Or so I hope. An Iranian bomb is something that everyone - not just the West and Israel - should be concerned about.
Baron
February 1st, 2011 12:09am Report this commenton the mildly positive side, Iran will need a credible delivery system, too. During the Korean war, the Russians had the bomb, couldn't drop it. Are the Iranians working on it, will a friendly power supply it? Methinks we should be told.
Roto
February 1st, 2011 1:52am Report this commentI believe the genie is far out of the box. It's only a matter of time, a short time (perhaps 3 years), before the Middle East countries, including Iran and outside, begin to arm with nuclear weapons. Like it or not, we face a proliferation of nuclear advisaries. Perhaps some will be on our side, but that's not definably definite (including Israel), so the risk of much destruction to US assets, including possible a major US city, is very much a possibility. The adversaries in this case, whoever they may be, will of course be annilated, but we will suffer mightily as well. Yes, maybe our adversaries are not that stupid, but battles are not initiated by logic alone. Emotional recklessness is almost certain to be in the mix. We need to prepare for this outcome.
Tom (Bristol)
February 1st, 2011 4:20am Report this commentIs Liam Fox's statement a latent reference to Bilderberg Group + The New World Order agenda ? May also explain why Bliar is starting to bang his Drums of War, yet again, over Iran. We will be much safer once Bliar is on trial in the Hague !
arnoldo87
February 1st, 2011 7:58am Report this commentTom(Bristol)
Over on Rod Liddle's blog, for the past week we have been running a competition. Eveyone who calls Blair a liar is invited to submit some evidence to prove their accusation.
So far, the Bliar merchants have proven to be all mouth and no trousers.So here's your chance to be the first to break the duck. Give us a lie.
Can you deliver? ..........Is the Pope a protestant?
Cameo Parkway Kid
February 1st, 2011 4:52pm Report this commentTrevor. No matter how much you dress up the rape and pillage UK's military planning was down to Labour's piss-poor management, the sole reason is down to the hatchet mentality within this government. MoD procurement goes beyond govts - its w*nk, needs reforming, end of. We therefore probably agree.
But the slashing of swathes of capability can only be laid at the door of the Dave and George show. If such cuts had occurred during Labour's tenure, the Tory press would have been up in arms and the Flat Earth Society on here would've got their knickers in a veritable twist
Consequently, barely a word has been said. Slavish to the extreme. Not only have the scumsuckers got rid of the Harrier fleet too early - and shoved a crucial weapon system on the totally inappropriate GR4, they've also got rid of the arguable the best ASW fleet in the world.
Add to that, they're chopping Sentinel and Shadow - probably the two biggest force-multipliers for UK forces in Helmand; slashing the Army of a further 25,000 troops in 2013, as well as planning to decommision Albion, amongst others of the ?RN's surface fleet in 2012.
We were the best in the world in relation to planning and carrying out contingency ops 5 years ago, in 5 years time, we'll be incapbable of securing our borders, let alone deploy a small-scale BG anywhere. So it doesn't matter if Iran develop nukes, we'll be unable to do f&*k all about it.
Shouldn't be surprised - it always seems to go belly-up when you put a dodgy car-salesman in charge.
David Lindsay
February 1st, 2011 4:53pm Report this commentHe simply has to go.
Is Lord Lothian, the former Michael Ancram MP, still available?
Back to top