Cameron caught in the middle
Peter Hoskin 3:36pm
Need a bestiary to tell the hawks from the doves? Then this article (£) in the Times should serve your purpose. It's an account of Tuesday's Cabinet meeting on Libya, and the
differences of opinion that transpired. Michael Gove, we are told, was "messianic" in his call for a tougher stance against Gaddafi. William Hague, for his part, was considerably more
cautious. A graphic alongside the article puts George Osborne, Liam Fox and Andrew Mitchell in the Gove camp, and Nick Clegg and Danny Alexander with Hague. David Cameron, chairman of this diverse
board, is said to be "caught in the middle".
The government has since denied that the Cabinet is split. And Gove has emphasised that, "when it comes to questions like Libya and foreign policy the Foreign Secretary is the expert". Yet, it must be said, Nick Clegg's speech in Brussels yesterday did little to dispel the idea that there are two very different hearts beating in government. The Lib Dem leader urged Europe to get involved in North Africa, but he meant it in terms of economic cooperation and development assistance. His only reference to military intervention was to quote Cameron: "you cannot impose democracy from 30,000 feet."*
And this is where Robert Gates, the US Defence Secretary, steps in. He told a congressional panel yesterday that, "a no fly-zone begins with an attack on Libya to destroy the air defences." Which is to say, maintaining a no-fly zone would require things to be dropped from 30,000 feet. It's not quite clear that this is what the hawks are set on. (The Times article, for instance, suggests that, "[George Osborne] is cautious of advocating any solution involving cost to the Exchequer.") But it is clearer that the doves are set against it.
*Although I think the PM had it at 40,000 feet.
Previous
Liz Elliot-Pyle
March 3rd, 2011 3:46pm Report this commentI reckon Michael Gove is the only true conservative in the cabinet. I wish he could replace Cameron.
Anxiously Stable
March 3rd, 2011 4:03pm Report this commentBefore Dave goes too far down the road in imposing a no-fly zone along with the French, he might like to recall that our Gallic chums were part of the original military powers that imposed something similar over Iraq during the 1990s – only to pull out, leaving the Brits and the Yanks on our own.
Oh, and the Liberal Democrat Foreign Affairs spokesman, Sir Menzies Campbell (remember him?) was quoted in Hansard as saying that the imposition of a no-fly zone over Iraq ‘wasn't worth the life of a single British pilot’.
Dave is fortunate indeed to have such reliable ‘partners’ in his new military venture.
oldtimer
March 3rd, 2011 4:07pm Report this commentGove is posturing even more preposterously than Cameron. The UK counts for zilch when it comes to military intervention; it struggles to maintain its military posture in Afghanistan. Ministers, and PMs, just look silly when they say things like this.
According to AlJazeera the Arab League and the African Council(? correct name) have today said they were thinking about imposing a no fly zone. Quite how they would do that was not explained. Best to let them get on with it. It is the Middle Eastern/African Big Society at work.
Woody
March 3rd, 2011 4:19pm Report this commentI see not for the first time, Gove is tipping off his mates at The Times. They might as well hold cabinet meetings in the middle of Trafalgar Square.
ChrisH
March 3rd, 2011 4:24pm Report this commentSurely I can't be the only one who thinks it is good that the cabinet are being consulted and that debate on such an important issue is a good thing. I don't want a cabinet that is thinking as one on an issue that doesn't have a right answer because that means there is no check on the PM.
I'd prefer decent cabinet discussion, and disagreement, over Blair's "sofa government" any day.
alan campbell
March 3rd, 2011 4:31pm Report this commentLoose talkers.
Mr Dark
March 3rd, 2011 4:38pm Report this commentMr Gove should concentrate on sorting out the mess of our schools rather than meddling in areas he knows nothing about. He shouldn't be briefing his old mates at the Times either in ways which are unhelpful to the Prime Minister.
TrevorsDen
March 3rd, 2011 4:52pm Report this commentHow do you posture in the privacy of a cabinet meeting?
How many times was Iraq discussed in the cabinet (as opposed to the sofa) before we invaded?
Vulture
March 3rd, 2011 4:52pm Report this commentGod, this load of stumblebums are beginnng to make Bliar look good. Bomb from what? Invade with whose army?
If little Govey wants to bomb Libya, let him be the one to pilot the Typhoon. His wife says that when he passed his driving test (on the seventh attempt) it was just because the Inspector was thankful to get out of the car alive Go, Govey, go!
PuppetMaster
March 3rd, 2011 4:57pm Report this commentCan't you focus on the meat of the story? I see no purpose in focusing on the words of these actors.
The real story is who gets the oil contracts when it is all over. Now the Spanish and the Italians control the gas fields in the wet, BP and Shell control a few of the oil concessions in the east.
If Gaddafi falls these are all likely to be renegotiated, originally Gaddafi confiscated the oil infrastructure from the Americans, so that is why they are not backing Cameron's war talk.
whatawaste
March 3rd, 2011 5:11pm Report this commentThis is a non starter or to excuse the pun it just wont fly. As Robert Gates has said this is a huge undertaking that would need hundreds of planes. Libyan air defences are extensive and effective - the USAF lost a plane in the 1980's raid.
A no fly zone requires all air defences to be destroyed. Firstly satellite recon has to take place as existing photos will be out of date then analysts have to examine the data before deciding on targets. You can bet, if they have not done so already, that missile batteries will be located next to schools, hospitals etc.
Secondly you need politicians that have the cojones to take responsibility when errors are made and a school/hospital are hit and there are civilian casualties. I cannot see Cameron doing this: Liam Fox had better start sharpening his sword when he has to fall on it!
The Libyan air force is pretty big as well, and whilst the F18 superhornet will overpower the Libyans there are questions about other NATO aircraft inclusing the Typhoon which is untested in battle.
Ray
March 3rd, 2011 5:24pm Report this commentGrief, do they never learn!
yank
March 3rd, 2011 5:26pm Report this commentSo Cameron's caught in the middle between Hague and Gove?
Well one thing's for certain, they'll both be driving their points home. And we can't really be sure who's gonna come out on top here. And I wouldn't submit to either, Dave, if you're smart. Best be discrete about it all.
Ian Walker
March 3rd, 2011 5:52pm Report this commentOperating a no-fly zone against a professional army armed with SA-2/SA-8/SA-13 systems is not a viable option. First you have to kill the SA-2s with cruise, then you have to take out the mobile SAMS from 40,000ft with LGBs. All of this before you can engage their aircraft at low-level bombing height. The trouble is, the minute you start this, Gaddafi has nothing to lose, and uses his chemical weapons on the protestors.
A knackered Iraqi Imperial Guard this is not. Much better to support the rebels on the ground - as the SAS are no doubt already doing.
Maximus
March 3rd, 2011 6:21pm Report this commentHague is right to be cautious - Gove is an inexperienced ideaolgue and should be calmed down and told to concentrate on his own portfolio. The sheer amount of assets needed to enforce a no fly zone is a serious commitment and the US has no appetite for it. The UK is almost laughably in no position to carry it out at all, thanks to the cutbacks in the military budget after the totally bungled so-called Strategic Defence Review
TGF UKIP
March 3rd, 2011 7:03pm Report this commentWith Obama America on that side of the Atlantic and the UK integrated Europe on this, Gaddafi can cheefully get on with doing exactly what he wants.
Unless, of course, Obama being ever the political opportunist does try to make himself look hawkish and uses carrier aircraft to bomb airfields and strategic army installations.
2trueblue
March 3rd, 2011 8:14pm Report this commentItis refreshing that we have some idea how open dialogue between the ministers. With Bliar and Liebore there was no such information available, from anyone.
Verity
March 3rd, 2011 8:17pm Report this commentAnyone who doesn't think that Cameron is taking his orders from Blair is naive to the max.
V cozy.
2trueblue
March 4th, 2011 12:25am Report this commentVerity. Next thing we hear from you is that he has been abducted by aliens.
Baron
March 4th, 2011 1:31am Report this commentmaintaining a no-fly zone over Libya is a non-starter; just one single medium range missile would suffice to free the region, the world of the farting nutter, change the mind of those he enslaves to see things differently, provided it’s aimed well. The carnage can always be blamed on an ammunition dump with which the guy must be surrounding himself. Trust me, I know, I’ve checked.
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