A post-Tunisian Foreign Office
Daniel Korski 6:13pm
The Foreign Office has come in for a lot of criticism lately, following delays in
getting Britons out Libya. Some argue that it is all William Hague's fault. Others that the department is unfit for purpose.
Both of these views seem a bit unfair. The FCO managed to help Britons in Tunisia and Egypt, and only came up short when the company they had used failed to take off for Libya. True, there should have been a better contract in place – which would give the FCO alternatives – but that hardly translates into systemic failure. True, ministerial divisions between Jeremy Browne, in charge of consular affairs, and Alistair Burt, who runs Middle East policy, did not help. But that's probably inevitable.
A more damaging criticism is why the FCO - with its diplomats, embassies and analysts – failed to understand how brittle the North African regimes were. But not just the FCO, but also the
Quai, the Auswaertiges Amt and the State Department. Now, Dominique Moisi, one of France's leading foreign policy thinkers, digs into this question:
If the FCO is to learn the right lessons from the events in North Africa, it must do more than study the consular failures."Revolutionary ruptures upset diplomats’ familiar habits, both in terms of their personal contacts and, more importantly, in terms of their thinking. A fast-forward thrust into the unknown can be exhilarating, but it is also deeply frightening. In the name of “realism,” diplomats and foreign-policy strategists are naturally conservative.Indeed, it is no accident that Henry Kissinger’s masterpiece, A World Restored, was devoted to the study of the recreation of the world order by the Vienna Congress after the rupture of the French Revolution, followed by the Napoleonic adventures. Is it more difficult to predict, and adjust to, the coming of a fundamental change, than to defend the present order, under the motto of “the devil you know is always preferable to the devil you don’t know!”
But, beyond these mental habits lie more structural reasons for the conservatism of foreign policymakers and diplomats. By emphasizing the relations between states and governments over contacts with the opposition or civil societies (when they exist in an identifiable form), traditional diplomacy has created for itself a handicap that is difficult to overcome.
By requiring their diplomats to limit their contacts with “alternative” sources of information in a country, in order to avoid antagonizing despotic regimes, governments irremediably limit diplomats’ ability to see change coming, even when it is so close that nothing can be done."
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annassasin
March 5th, 2011 6:28pm Report this commentIf you read the personnel review conducted a couple of years ago, under D.Miliband, you would understand why the F.O. is (nearly) unfit for purpose.
Croissant and Chips
March 5th, 2011 7:26pm Report this commentAsk yourself whether anyone accurately predicted these events and the timescale. If you cannot find the person or organization then it is a fair bet that your quest for a crystal ball in the foreign office will be fruitless. Human systems are very unpredictable at the micro level - ie. revolution this year. And the macro level is virtually useless in policy planning terms. For example, at the macro level the UK is clearly fucked. What can we do it about it? Seemingly nothing.
Perry
March 5th, 2011 7:45pm Report this commentWithout at all casting a slur on the genius of Zen, this is like the sound of one hand clapping.
TrevorsDen
March 5th, 2011 7:56pm Report this commentCroisant - it took labour 13 years to fek us, so clearly unfeking us will take time as well.
But its not impossible. But we have to get our priorities right. Something peabrains find difficult to grasp.
The 'arab spring' was clearly one of the unknown unknowns we did not know about.
yank
March 5th, 2011 9:33pm Report this commentWell, thankfully, you all have David Cameron to sort this all out, as the Daily Mail tells us:
"British diplomats and spies have been engaged in intensive efforts to speak to opposition forces, which are led by Mustafa Abdel Jalil, head of the rebel National Libyan Council.
Now ministers have approved a presence on the ground to gather information and boost the chances of the rebels."
So Dave doesn't know who's in charge at rebel HQ, and hasn't even spoken to them, but he's damn certain he wants them to win, and he's committing resources to that outcome. Good show, Dave. You'll have your Falklands moment yet.
Problem is, it's not likely to be the moment you think it should be, although it may well precipitate a real Falklands moment, in the Falklands.
2trueblue
March 5th, 2011 11:06pm Report this commentThis is the one biggest events of our time and thank God Liebore and Bliar are not in power as it unfolds. The mess they created here and the poverty of minds and capability that they left behind need not be afflicted elsewhere. Forgot, isen't Bliar busy bring peace about elsewhere?
Jez
March 6th, 2011 5:39am Report this commentHave you read The Times this morning you Pleb?
TomTom
March 6th, 2011 10:39am Report this comment"This is the one biggest events of our time"
Perhaps, but the real moment is yet to come and it too will emerge unannounced and unexpected by the those it topples
Archie
March 7th, 2011 5:04am Report this commentOh dear, the Foreign Secretary looks decidedly glum in your photo. Not at all gay.
Kaithe Greene
March 7th, 2011 5:24pm Report this commentI live and work in Tunisia and was here when the uprising started and left, along with a number of my colleagues on 16th January. We returned three weeks later and have been here ever since. I would like to point out that there was a tank at the end of my street, coils of razor wire and a military patrol around the local shopping centre, numerous roadblocks, gunfire and tear gas in the streets, and no public transport or police on the streets before the FCO amended their website to suggest not traveling to Tunisia for anything other than essential business. That seems seriously negligent to me. A colleague who flew out on one of the very few flights available on the 13th reported that tourists were still arriving despite the fact that the majority of businesses (including the UK embassy) were closed because of the troubles - that seems nothing short of criminal to me. Yes, we're all adults and responsible for ourselves, but surely the FCO should either keep their website updated or publish the information that registering with their Locate service and expecting support in times of trouble is does not imply that the embassy will help you.
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