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Wednesday, 9th March 2011

A second national debt that needs to be dealt with

Ed Holmes 2:06pm

Public sector workers will be waiting nervously for John Hutton’s pension review, due out tomorrow.  It is likely to mandate extra pension contributions of around 2.5-3.5 percent of pay and new ways to make entitlements grow more slowly.  Policy Exchange advocated a similar solution in a report published last year. 

Predictably, the TUC is up in arms. It says that public sector pay is not significantly out of line with the private sector – despite all the evidence that it is. The main reason why those in the public sector get a better deal is their pensions.

These add up to the equivalent of 44 per cent of public employees’ wages and 71 per cent for uniformed services – but are just 9.3 percent for (less secure) private sector schemes.  Despite much longer retirements (around 25 years on recent estimates compared to 15 years ago in 1990), public workers have not been asked to pay more. Teachers, for example, contribute little more than they did in the 1920s as a percentage of their salary. Instead, the burden has been borne entirely by the taxpayer.

The liabilities for this second national debt add up to around £1.2 trillion – around £47,000 per household. Let me repeat that figure: £1.2 trillion – or over a million million. This is leading to the manifestly unjust situation where private sector workers will be paying more towards public pensions than they save for themselves – around £15,000 each. Such largesse  towards the public sector is perhaps part of the reason why over half of those working for the private sector have no pension arrangements at all.

But there is another aspect to over-generous pensions. They are trapping public workers, giving them an incentive to stay on and become underperforming time-servers.  To combat this, Hutton will switch accruals from final salaries to career averages – helping lower-ranking workers at the expense of high flyers benefiting disproportionately from late-career rises.  He is also likely to recommend increasing the pension age to 65 - somewhat compensating for the extra 9.2 years of a public employee’s working life that are worked in the private sector.

Hutton’s reforms are a step in the right direction – but will likely turn out to be insufficient.  We should expand the ‘cap and share’ system outlined in the 2009 Pre-Budget Report to limit the accrual of additional liabilities.  In the longer term we need public pensions to be, in Alistair Darling's words, ‘to be broadly in line with those offered in the private sector’.  This might mean creating fully funded money purchase schemes, which some organisations such as Ofcom have already done.  We also need much greater clarity about the scale of the problem: the OBR continues to accept government discount rates, which have been widely discredited, leading it to underestimate the real liabilities by half.

The coalition has been brave thus far.  Of necessity, it has already taken a great deal of flak for its measures to deal with the national debt.  But unless urgent action is taken, this second national debt will continue to haunt us.

Ed Holmes is a research fellow in the Economics Unit at Policy Exchange

Filed under: Alistair Darling (197 more articles) , Coalition (2088 more articles) , Efficiencies (18 more articles) , Employment (149 more articles) , John Hutton (9 more articles) , Pensions (53 more articles) , Private sector (41 more articles) , Public sector (118 more articles) , Spending cuts (626 more articles) , UK politics (5406 more articles)

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PayDirt

March 9th, 2011 2:58pm Report this comment

What about the employment contracts these public servants with pensions have, where their rights are legally enforceable? Time for a two-stage currency switch where public servants get paid and take their pensions in fast depreciating pounds sterling while private companies attract the best by paying them in Euros or somesuch. Will happen sooner or later.

TomTom

March 9th, 2011 3:04pm Report this comment

Is it true that in 2003 Council Pension Schemes were opened to Councillors to participate ?

BenM

March 9th, 2011 3:05pm Report this comment

"The liabilities for this second national debt add up to around £1.2 trillion – around £47,000 per household. Let me repeat that figure: £1.2 trillion – or over a million million."

So what?

Those liabilities aren't all due at once. They're very long term, stretching out over decades - so the UK is easily able to meet them.

Stop trying to scare people with big numbers and no context.

"This is leading to the manifestly unjust situation where private sector workers will be paying more towards public pensions than they save for themselves – around £15,000 each."

What is manifestly unjust?

Private sector workers could have got themselves a public sector job and enjoyed these benefits. Public sector work was not a closed shop.

What is needed is getting the Private Sector to get its own house in order and to avoid this foolish race to the bottom where no one gets anything simply because bitter Tories can't face the total mess they've made of the economy.

Lonesome Dave

March 9th, 2011 3:14pm Report this comment

Public sector staff could always re-apply for their "own" jobs as may in the private sector have had to. The subsequent contracts on offer may not be the same but hey ho, they don't need to aply....

Dan Grover

March 9th, 2011 3:28pm Report this comment

I thought that, in Treasury speak, a trillion was a thousand billion? I mean, you never hear about "one hundred thousand billion."

HJ

March 9th, 2011 3:28pm Report this comment

Paydirt:

"What about the employment contracts these public servants with pensions have, where their rights are legally enforceable?"

Just as Brown taxed private sector funds which had already been invested on the basis that they were tax free, it should be possible to devise a tax on pension income received (above a certain level) where the pensions are not backed by a fund. It cannot be beyond the wit of the government to reduce the taxpayer liability even on existing entitlements.

sam

March 9th, 2011 3:44pm Report this comment

Got to love that "perhaps" in the "perhaps this is why half the private sector doesn't have pensions". As in "we have no evidence whatsoever that these things are linked, and intuitively they have nothing to do with each other, as public sector pension contributions are paid through general tax, but by suggesting some link we add weight to our case"

There's a good argument in here - don't waste it by drawing a straw man cause and effect

Mr. Green

March 9th, 2011 4:06pm Report this comment

#Dan
I think a financial "Trillion" is a numerical "Billion" (1 million millions)

Foundavoice

March 9th, 2011 5:04pm Report this comment

BenM's comments are so far removed from reality I can't be bothered to entertain them.

Mr Green - Dan is correct. We adopted the 1,000 million as a trillion (it used be be million million IIRC) in the 70s as this is the generally accepted worldwide and avoids confusion.

Adrian

March 9th, 2011 5:15pm Report this comment

Some people choose an occupation in public service because it offers a good pension. If pensions are no better than the private sector it follows that those people might take thier talents elsewhere. I'm not suggesting that there will be a shortage of people willing to work as teachers, police officers, firefighters, nurses etc., but the quality of candidates will be reduced.

Pensions are by nature a long term thing. For some in the public sector there is no fund. The treasury shoulders the burden. In the case of police officers, a pension to which the individual contributes 11% of earnings at present is paid directly by the police authority from central government grants and precepts.

Since 1919 governments have had the opportunity to set up pension funds for the police but have chosen not to do so. Still, at least it provides an outlet for bitter envy from those who not serve.

There is a legitimate question about pensions. What is the value of police service, teaching, nursing, street cleaning? Are they less valuable than, say, futures trading? The answer is yes because without enterprise there is no sustainable public sector. However, tackling pension provision in the private sector is as important as the public sector because an astonishing number of people make no provision at all for their future.

TrevorsDen

March 9th, 2011 5:35pm Report this comment

In '98 pensions was 16% of spending, in '06 it was 17% of spending and in 2012 it will be 18% of spending.

Its not going to get any better - By 2050, half the population will be aged 55 or over.

So BenM - needs to think again. But BenM thinks all problems can be solved by spending money he has not got.
Of course if we just spend more with borrowed money then the %age going to pensions will come down and BenM will shout 'success'
Pensions do not become liable in 20 years - they are becoming liable now every day every month every year.

TGF UKIP

March 9th, 2011 6:09pm Report this comment

With approximately four times the number of private sector than there are public sector workers, this should be an easy one for the Cameron Tories to win on.

So useless are they,though, at any sort of populist communication that we can almost certainly expect to see Unison & co carrying the day in the polls on this. It really is just so easy for the Swivel Eyed and his mates.

So far as the number goes, though, it was the Obama triumph in the US and the Brown achievement over here to put "trillion" into common usage. The best way, however, to get anyone to grasp just how large a number it is, is to pose the question "How many days, weeks months or years is a trillion seconds"

While most people guess a few years at most, the answer is a gobsmacking 31,668 years (source: DT Business section)

DC

March 9th, 2011 7:02pm Report this comment

I don't know about the rest of public servants but I've served in the military for 17 years now and 'the pension trap' is a common squaddie term. Many of us reach the point where the disruption, multiple tours and other negative aspects of forces life are only outweighed by the prospect of a decent pension at a relatively early age. Take away the pension and retention of experience within the military will be much more difficult to achieve.

GrahamS

March 9th, 2011 7:52pm Report this comment

So it's OK for taxpayers to bail out the banks and investors in Equitable Life, oh and fund wars that have nothing to do with us but not fund public sector workers who have paid into a pension fund all their working lives.
A pension scheme is a long term contract and if the public sector pension was run by a private company they would not be allowed to change the terms of the contract right at the end of the deal.

If the money had been properly saved and invested then it would still be there to pay out now instead of being squandered, as it was being collected, by successive governments.

Framer

March 10th, 2011 12:02am Report this comment

Civil servants currently pay nothing for their pensions which are so generous it would cost someone in the private sector around 20% of their earnings. Now they are going to be asked to cough up a mere 3%!

The trick is that employers' contributions keep rising to fill the gap and if that fails 'ASLC' comes into play [state top-up, as and when necessary].

Note how Francis Maude made concession after concession when reducing slightly the 3-years salary redundancy pay-offs for civil servants. He is frit of the public sector unions.

When UKIP spots the fact that those unions represent a labour aristocracy they might make a real breakthrough.

Nick

March 10th, 2011 12:11am Report this comment

GrahamS, you may think that a private company would not be allowed to change the terms of a contract, but that is precisely what a large and increasing number of private sector organisations have done with their pension schemes. Of course there's a sham "consultation" to keep the lawyers away, but most contracts are barely worth the paper they are printed on.

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