What will Gordon do if the US strikes Iran's insurgent training camps?
James Forsyth 7:07pm
David Ignatius has a great column in The Washington Post this morning looking at the international events that could shake up the presidential race. One of the things that he considers is the US bombing the facilities that the Iranians are using to train fighters before sending them into Iraq; there’s a significant chance that this will happen this summer.
If President Bush were to order this it would be immensely controversial. His critics would accuse him of risking all out war with Iran and Obama would almost certainly condemn it. But it would also have huge ramifications for British politics: what would Gordon Brown say?
Brown would be walking a tightrope. If he were to offer his support for it, it would be a red rag to the Labour party and could result in resignations from the cabinet and maybe even a leadership challenge. But if he were to withhold his support, it would fundamentally fracture the coalition that is fighting in Iraq.
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Comments
Henry Rogers
May 8th, 2008 7:42pmJames, I'm sure the Whitehall system has beavered away and produced a reasonably good attitude for the UK to strike if that should happen. But what the Hell can we really do about it anyway, whether we approve or disapprove of things that the US (or Israel) might do to Iran (and vice versa), apart from speech making?
bt
May 8th, 2008 7:46pmHmm... set up a review? It seems to be his all-purpose response to anything remotely tricky.
More seriously, if things go on as they are, it's unlikely he'll be in a position to make a decision - he'll be gone. There are quoted odds of 3:1 that he'll be out of office 2Q 2008.
Would a care-taker PM dare jump in?
Might do, if it was Jack. I think Condi makes his eyes glaze over.
Max Kaye
May 8th, 2008 8:58pmWhat would Gordon Brown say? He'd say what he always says: "I've presided over 11 years of rising employment.... 1 million children brought out of poverty.... the best economic record since the ark...." etc, etc.
Irrelevant? Of course - but then so is Brown. (And, unfortunately, Britain too).
Bruce, UK
May 8th, 2008 9:24pmWhat will Gordon do?
Dither, of course.
Perry
May 8th, 2008 10:54pm[What will Gordo do?]
Disappear?
Re-re-save Africa?
Put ill-equipped UK troops on standby in the front-line (border)?
Appear on chat-show?
David Lindsay
May 9th, 2008 1:11amNothing, if he has any sense.
You do realise, don't you, that Britain, the US and Israel are three different countries, none with any particular obligation to either of the other two (to put it mildly)?
Israelis do realise this, axiomatically, about the US, as Israelis and Americans alike do about Britain. It is very high time that we returned the compliment.
Or, to put it another way, it is very high time that we re-learned some self-respect.
RJB
May 9th, 2008 1:11amI think it more likely that Brown would come under pressure to condone the strikes, rather than actually take part. The Americans, in strict military terms, would rather do it themselves anyway. Anything we did, be it a tomahawk from a sub or a few Tornados would be purely cosmetic - and highly unlikely.
I suspect that the Americans would rather ourselves, the French and the Germans remained the 'good cop' in the, more important, ongoing nuclear wrangling and leave them to dish it out. That would, in theory, leave the window open for negotiations to continue from both Europe, and whichever administration takes over in January. Not that those negotiations are getting anywhere ...
Still can't see them doing it though.
Ian C
May 9th, 2008 9:07amHe'll ask Blair what he should do! (And we know what Blair will say - rightly).
Dirk Blade
May 9th, 2008 9:12amSince the Iranian-trained fighters in Iraq have a direct impact on the British mission, as well as the lives of British servicemen, and since we have been so utterly ineffectual at securing the Iraq-Iran border within our own sector, it would be good if the Prime Minister authorised the use of British forces to support such a raid. The government loves sending messages, so here's a chance to send a worthwhile one. It would be a belated attempt to make good the damage that the government's failure to stick the course has done to the Iraqis and the US, and to our credibility as an ally and military power. Our senior leadership understand, as the US have understood for years, that Iran has always been the big issue in the Middle East, which makes our failures in Basra even more culpable.
As for such a strike leading to 'all-out war' between Iran, and the US-Iraq govt. I think there's enough evidence that the Iranians are already doing as much as they can to influence events in Iraq. I don't think such a strike will necessarily have a significant effect on their interference. It might actually be the display of 'western' resolve that the blighters need to see that we are, the woeful 'EU Three' efforts notwithstanding, serious about curbing their influence.
Ted Tedford
May 9th, 2008 9:17amI think he should go on The National Lottery to announce a multi-million pound initiative to promote understanding between Iran and the UK, while simultaneously cutting the defence budget by the same amount, because that's how he thinks we deal with 'security' in the 21st century.
Or he could just perform a death-clog dance on a burning US and NATO flag while shouting 'Allahu Akhbar': he couldn't do much more to make clear his contempt for our military alliances.
salieri
May 9th, 2008 10:02amGordo could always say that a million Iranians had been lifted out of poverty.
TGF UKIP
May 9th, 2008 8:14pmDirk Blade, I agree with every single word - brilliantly put. Ted Tedford - agreed, but he should also invite Cameron to join in his death-clog dance. Let's not forget the Cameron Berlin speech nor his pledge to continue the underfunding of the Armed Forces to create all the more, another £28bn, to pour down the bottomless pit called the NHS.