A 26 point lead for the Tories

Jess

Thought Murdoch had turned!

STAN, UK

NO DOUBT lABOUR WILL TRY TO RUBBISH THIS , BUT JUST REMEMBER YOU GOV CALLED THE lONDON mAYORAL RACE SPOT ON.

bt

And according to the poll they'd do worse if they replace him with any of the cabinet heavies.
What larks, Pip! What larks!

Mind you, that includes just the deeply objectionable types that cluster to the rear of the PM. But it'd be fascinating to imagine what would happen if a bunch of Labour stalwarts started pushing Frank Field forward as a replacement. In that case I think the poll figures wouldn't be nearly as bad; might even save Labour's bacon.

Max Kaye

Good grief! Even the shambles that was Michael Foot didn't do as badly.... Methinks even that 'bulimic' buffoon Prescott wouldn't have cocked up so badly.

Frank Field was once asked by Tony Blair to 'think the unthinkable'.

Will he now be asked by his Labour colleagues to 'retrieve the irretrievable'?

Personally I think Frank Field is nice guy, but after the shafting he got from Brown last week his credibility with the wider public is shot.

TrevorH

tshk tshk, at this point in the electoral cycle and with all the governments problems Cameron should be doing even better ... time for a change of leader ...

Travis Bickle

But using the Brownie rounding formula (as practiced in PMQ every week) this officially makes Labour and Conservative neck and neck, and too close to call.

CS

Oh no, how are they going to convince themselves that all is rosy now that they can't argue that the Tories aren't as far ahead as Labour were in 1997?

Perry

Methinks that this news is going to concentrate wonderfully the minds of many Noo-Lie-Bore MPs. And, as many never had a proper job anyway, one can only surmise that the ranks of would-be equality advisors and polytechnic (sorry, ‘University’) teaching applicants would swell wonderfully too, - joining those exiting from Boris’ establishment.

No chance of course of people from the higher echelons jumping ship into nicely paid corporate jobs I suppose.

PK

Taxi for Brown!

Jonathan T

Truly remarkable poll, particularly given YouGov's recent history of accurate forecasting.

These are Blair '96 numbers - barring a never-before-seen event, the Conservatives will win the next election with at least a 100 seat majority.

There are clearly gaps in current Tory policy (most notably a coherent strategy on health) but this poll provides the space to articulate a fully formed agenda for the next two terms.

Robert Williams

Yet,it seems, the Conservatives can't even rely on the vote of Portillo. He admitted on BBC1 "This Week" that he did not vote for Boris, but he did vote.

David Lindsay

Forty-nine per cent of the thirty-five per cent who voted in the local elections, presumably. Who cares? Sixty-five per cent of the potential electorate is still waiting to be reached.

I hate to break the news to David Cameron, but that would involve being politically different from Gordon Brown. Not just twinklier. Not just posher. Not just less Scottish to the untrained eye. But POLITICALLY different.

I'm not holding my breath.

Lee Jakeman

A really sad day :-)

Ted Tedford

Max: Does a 'shafting' from Mr Brown necessarily destroy one's credibility? I'd have thought it helps 'decontaminate' (dread word!) Mr Field in the eyes of the political affiliation that is seemingly resurgent.

And I bet there are lots of people shafted by Mr Brown who might gain credibility by talking about it.

If you see what I mean.

Max Kaye

Ted Tedford, I agree - to a degree: the shafting of Frank Field would make a good cause celebre for internal opposition to rally around. As a 'leader', however, he is a non-starter.

Ian C

David Lindsay - if you had any knowledge of polling (and as a pretend politician you clearly ought) you would know that most polls are of c 1200 people at most. If this was conducted as an exit poll from last week's elections, as your comment suggests, it would be a much more substantial sample than normal, so even more accurate. So go on keeping digging that hole in the sand for your enormous empty head to bury itself in.

Simon R

Ian C
Actually, if it was conducted as an exit poll, it would only reflect the views of those that had exercised their vote - about 35%. That leaves the views of 65% uncanvassed.

However, David Lindsay, it was not an exit poll but a "standard" YouGov sample and so Ian C is right after all.

David Lindsay

And how many people said that they weren't going to vote, or weren't going to say?

The Tories are still not on course to win the next Election. But who cares? It wouldn't make any difference if they did. And that is the real point.

Ian C

Out of 35% of the electorate there are plenty of samples to know what the outcome of the poll is. You only have to sample 100 questionnaires to know what the next 100 will say within the marhgin for wrror. My point is that this poll is very revealing and a certain D Lindsay was pretending otherwise and hearing the news he wants to hear. I do accept that the fat lady is not yet signing nor will until after election day and that tune could be different from what this poll is suggesting. It does not invalidate the message of the poll as was being suggested.