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Wednesday, 20th April 2011

How the Finns might rock the European boat

James Forsyth 6:51pm

Normally, the results of the Finnish elections don’t merit much discussion. But the success of the True Finns, the only party to put on seats in the elections there last week, could have a major impact on this country.
 
The True Finns ran almost as a single issue party during the final week of the campaign. Their message: we’ll say no to bailing out other Eurozone countries. Seeing as they are almost certainly going to be part of the next Finnish government, this rather throws a spanner in the works of Brussels’ plan to bail out Portugal.
 
Now, as Dan Hannan notes, if the Finns were to veto the use of the Eurozone funded European Financial Stability Facility to bail out Portugal, all the burden of doing so would fall on the European Financial Stabilisation Mechanism, to which Britain is a party.

This raises two intriguing questions. First, if Britain’s share of the bailouts rise, will the Treasury do anything to try and limit Britain’s contributions? Second, if the True Finns are successful in getting Finland exempted from contributing to the bail out of Portugal, what boost will that give to other Eurosceptic parties across Europe?

Filed under: Bailout (20 more articles) , Euro (190 more articles) , Europe (752 more articles) , Finland (2 more articles) , International politics (737 more articles) , Portugal (17 more articles)

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Peter From Maidstone

April 20th, 2011 7:07pm Report this comment

I have worked with many Finns for many years, and spent much time in Helsinki. When Finns make up their mind about something they are not likely to change their mind, whatever the consequences. This latest outcome is good news indeed for the rest of us who are subject to the EU experiment.

JohnBUK

April 20th, 2011 7:11pm Report this comment

Just shows, they've more guts than the UK bunch of pussies!

Richard Calhoun

April 20th, 2011 7:17pm Report this comment

" what boost will that give to other Eurosceptic parties across Europe? "

This is the fascinating question, will UKIP be able to capitalise on the success of the TrueFinns?

They will need to become more adept at marketing themselves but I fervently hope they succeed

bojimbo

April 20th, 2011 7:24pm Report this comment

If the Finns can say no .....................

Boudicca

April 20th, 2011 7:32pm Report this comment

The Euro bailouts are illegal according to the EU's own treaties. Why is our Government participating in something which they know is illegal and why aren't they being challenged in the Courts?

It is to be hoped that the True Finns block the bailouts to highlight just how undemocratic the EU is and how it breaks the law when it suits. UKIP can only gain from the True Finns example of national democracy in action.

Meanwhile, the EU Commission today demanded a 5% increase in the EU Budget. Paying up will destroy any benefit from the spending cuts Cameron has made but he will no doubt just pay up. Once again, we are going to get a clear demonstration that it is the EU which now governs the UK and our elected puppet-Government is merely its stooge.

Vote UKIP at every opportunity and turn the anti-cuts March in London on 14 May into an anti-EU demonstration.

Neil Turner

April 20th, 2011 7:43pm Report this comment

Please, please, please, please rock the boat

Charles Martel

April 20th, 2011 7:50pm Report this comment

But more importantly... why should Britain bail out the Eurozone, when its own members rufuse to?

This is explosive for the Tories... we might be having an election sooner than we think!

Paul

April 20th, 2011 8:06pm Report this comment

All of which raises the question: why didn't Darling, Osborne and Cameron tell the EU to get stuffed when this proposal was going through? Even if the vote was by qualiifed majority voting, I don't see how the EU can compel member states to hand over money, a point Thatcher realised when she threatened to withhold payment until a rebate was awarded to UK.

barnacle bill

April 20th, 2011 8:37pm Report this comment

Of course Cameron/Osborne won't say enough is enough, it'll be: "How high Masters?"

disenfranchised

April 20th, 2011 8:42pm Report this comment

god bless timo soini and his true finns, and god bless nigel farage and UKIP.
without these common sense politicians all we patsies living under the EU are doomed.....

Robert Eve

April 20th, 2011 8:51pm Report this comment

We live in hope.

JohnPage

April 20th, 2011 8:58pm Report this comment

will UKIP be able to capitalise on the success of the TrueFinns?

Not a chance. UKIP are rotten.

Vulture

April 20th, 2011 9:00pm Report this comment

@Neil Turner.
No. please,please,please sink the bloody boat!

lids

April 20th, 2011 10:30pm Report this comment

If only UKIP wasn't run by a bunch of drunken crooks.

Go Finland, show UK politicians up for the pussies they are.....

TGF UKIP

April 20th, 2011 10:36pm Report this comment

The Finns might rather put your jelly's "Victory" budget claim into context, James.

TomTom

April 20th, 2011 10:49pm Report this comment

German Press reports the EU Commission is already working to circumvent Finland. There is no way you will stop the EU Commission, it will twist and turn to get its way - rules are simply the trails left by what they have done rather than route-markers

Baron

April 20th, 2011 11:29pm Report this comment

hate to put a spanner into your rejoicing, but have you any idea how many of the loans the Irish, the Portuguese, the other countries under threat have to roll over came from our banks, ha?

Archie

April 20th, 2011 11:53pm Report this comment

But if anyone does attempt to rock the boat, Mr. Forsyth, what we'll be subjected to, is blather of the type emanating from the LibDem bimbo on Iain Dale's radio programme today. Nothing substantial but lots of pro-EU sentiment.

wrinkled weasel

April 21st, 2011 12:00am Report this comment

There is a culture of arrogance in Europe. Even the EU Budget Commissioner appears to mock Britain and its supposed efforts to curb spending.

Janusz Lewandowski is quoted as saying:
“Someone is criticising us, I have to say the UK budget is growing this year. Is this austerity?”

Not the words of someone who is about to go cap in hand or someone who feels particularly upset about spending money.

The EU is not bargaining, it is demanding. That can only come from having power. No entity with a power base seeks to diminish itself, in fact quite the opposite, it seeks to grab more power.

When it comes to the Finns, their worries do not amount to a hill of beans. The only action that the UK can take, in order to stop this travesty now is unilateral action. Cameron must withdraw from the Lisbon Treaty and must stop rewarding profligacy.

This is not rocket science but pragmatism. Sooner or later Cameron will face an angry electorate who are already suffering under a massive burden of taxation. Cameron is useless on the whole, but he is a pragmatist, and the sooner he sees his own position under the threat, the better it will be for us all.

In2minds

April 21st, 2011 12:04am Report this comment

JohnPage & lids - Indeed, UKIP are part of the problem.

Sir Everard Digby

April 21st, 2011 7:26am Report this comment

Where does the idea that the bailouts are illegal come from?

They are specifically covered in the Lisbon Treaty under Article 122.

“when a member-state is in difficulties or is seriously threatened with severe difficulties caused by natural disasters or exceptional occurrences beyond its control, the Council [of national governments], on a proposal from the Commission, may grant, under certain conditions, Union financial assistance to the member-state concerned.”

That is a re-write of Article 119 from the EU Foundation Treaty.

The EU Commision does not have the power to grant a bailout but the Council of National governments does,on advice from the Commission.

That is why no-one has mounted a legal challenge - they would lose.

Perhaps the pertinent question to ask is why certain comments on this site suggest otherwise?

TrevorsDen

April 21st, 2011 7:44am Report this comment

So Boudicca you want an anti EU March? Then organise your own - don't come the anarchist and hijack someone else's.

Aren't true Finns basically socialists? In any tug of war like this where we end up paying more then certainly we should give less back to Finland.

Wrinkled - our budget IS growing this year. The question that must be asked is about how the EU is managing its budget in real terms. And of course just asking for something does not mean you get it.

I don't think its in our interest to see an economically crippled Portugal, something hysterical numpties forget. It would be in my own interest to see them out of the Euro because thats where I holiday.

Liz Brown

April 21st, 2011 8:49am Report this comment

Let us hope that they also say NON to the proposed increase in the EU budget. As we are already bailing out Greece, Ireland and soon Portugal, these countries should also be saying NON

Perry

April 21st, 2011 9:41am Report this comment

Just rock that boat baby!

And then bye-bye EUSSR!

Derek Pasquill

April 21st, 2011 9:47am Report this comment

Good on the True Finns. Bravo.

General Zod

April 21st, 2011 10:02am Report this comment

Baron, you are making the mistake of considering real world consequences instead of indulging in fantasy politics.

lids

April 21st, 2011 10:13am Report this comment

Trevors Den, you really have a handle on things don't you? True Finns socialist eh?? Do you have any understanding of Finnish society, nope thought not. BTW here is the headline in that esteemed publication Socialist World.

"Protest against racist polices of True Finns party

18/04/2011
Following last Sunday’s parliamentary election in Finland, talks are taking place on forming a coalition government. The results saw a big increase in support for the anti-immigrant, rightwing populist True Finns party, gaining 19.0% (39 seats) from 4.1% (5 seats) in 2007."

Crack on with your bogus posts big lad, the rest of us know who the problem socialists are, Cameron and his chums in the LibDems and nouveaux idiots like two brains Willetts and his desire for middle class kids to be sanctioned against in their university apps.

Commentator

April 21st, 2011 10:28am Report this comment

Trev, I know that this is too difficult for your simple mind and you can only manage one thing at a time: singing from the Cleggerons' hymn sheet. Yet the whole point is that Portugal doesn't need a bailout on the EU's terms. The solution to excessive debt is not more (expensive) debt. That is why Greece, Ireland and Portugal all need to go bust.....and will do so, whatever the spin/outright lies from the EU and the UK Treasury. The bond markets have already priced in default. That default will then require a major bailout of a number of Euroepan banks. If you know all the answers, just put some of your own money into a Portuguese sovereign debt.

Commentator

April 21st, 2011 10:30am Report this comment

Aren't the True Finns waysists and fruitcakes? David Cameron, Nick Clegg, the BBC and the Guardian said so ....so it must be true.

TomTom

April 21st, 2011 10:32am Report this comment

"They are specifically covered in the Lisbon Treaty under Article 122."

Yet that Treaty is NOT superior to the German Verfassung, and funnily enough Merkel lacks a majority for the Stabilisation Fund in the Bundestag - they are calling it a Confidence Motion - and she does not enjoy much of that.

As for Art. 122, try Art 123 " Article 123 (ex Article 101 TEC)

1. Overdraft facilities or any other type of credit facility with the European Central Bank or with the central banks of the Member States (hereinafter referred to as "national central banks") in favour of Union institutions, bodies, offices or agencies, central governments, regional, local or other public authorities, other bodies governed by public law, or public undertakings of Member States shall be prohibited, as shall the purchase directly from them by the European Central Bank or national central banks of debt instruments."

Try Art 125: " Article 125 (ex Article 103 TEC)

1. The Union shall not be liable for or assume the commitments of central governments, regional, local or other public authorities, other bodies governed by public law, or public undertakings of any Member State, without prejudice to mutual financial guarantees for the joint execution of a specific project. A Member State shall not be liable for or assume the commitments of central governments, regional, local or other public authorities, other bodies governed by public law, or public undertakings of another Member State..."

Try Art 126: "1. Member States shall avoid excessive government deficits."

yank

April 21st, 2011 10:43am Report this comment

Heh heh, first Iceland turns down the blood money payments, and now Finland rejecting the bailouts. It's lookin' bad for the London banksters.

Best clean up those zombie banks, folks. They'll have you in a zombie economy for a decade and more, if you don't.

PayDirt

April 21st, 2011 12:27pm Report this comment

So, as Munchau wrote in this week's FT, either the Europeans with their EU currency join together in a fiscal union(and issue single Europe-wide bonds instead of all this Greek and German stuff), or the states with unmanageable debt go for default and banking Armageddon follows.

TomTom

April 21st, 2011 12:40pm Report this comment

Best strategy is to force Deutsche Bank, SocGen, Barclays, RBS etc to move out of Europe to China - Shanghai or Hong Kong then pass legislation permitting default of any mortgages and declaring then Non-Recourse Loans.

That way Europe can revive and China can pay for its Mercantilism over the past decade

denis cooper

April 21st, 2011 12:46pm Report this comment

Whatever mechanism is used for a eurozone bail-out it is very unlikely that it will comply with the letter of the EU treaties and certain that it will not comply with the spirit, unless it is accepted that Article 122(2) TFEU can be used to over-ride the treaty provisions which prohibit any such action by the EU and /or its member states.

As late as March 2010 Merkel herself was categorically denying that Article 122(2) could be used for that purpose:

"According to our understanding, this article 122 sets as a condition that the countries should not have contributed to the situation that has evolved, but that exceptional circumstances are responsible. According to my and our understanding these are rather earthquakes and floods, but also natural catastrophes, than something that can be applied to the Greek situation. So according to my opinion there is no contractual basis in the Treaty, on the basis of which one could do that.”

It beggars belief that Osborne could have been unaware that the proposed bail-out of Greece would be illegal under the EU treaties, and he should have stated publicly that if Darling consented to any such unlawful agreement then as the new Chancellor it would be his duty to revoke that consent.

David Parker

April 21st, 2011 2:00pm Report this comment

Sir Everard Digby,
"when a member-state is in difficulties or is seriously threatened with severe difficulties caused by natural disasters or exceptional occurrences beyond its control,"

These circumstances were not beyond the control of the governments of either Greece or Portugal, but were directly caused by their own fiscal incompetence.

However, so far as the EU is concerned their laws are little more than their flexible friend, to be bent in any way they wish.

Boudicca

April 21st, 2011 2:01pm Report this comment

Sir Everard Digby
April 21st, 2011 7:26am

Debt, overspending and overborrowing isn't a natural disaster that couldn't be predicted. The Maastrict Treaty specifically banned bailouts of other Eurozone members. See item 3 in the attached.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100084220/ten-reasons-why-britain-shouldnt-join-the-portuguese-bailout/

Boudicca

April 21st, 2011 2:05pm Report this comment

TrevorsDen
April 21st, 2011 7:44am

The rally on 14 May is an anti-Debt rally.

When the spending cuts our Government is making to reduce the deficit will be completely cancelled out by the insatiable demands for money from the EU - to fund Euro bailouts and keep the profligate EU in the manner to which the Oligarchy want - I think it is entirely appropriate to link the two.

I will be there - with my OUT of the EU banner because I object to funding the EU when we are borrowing hugely to pay for our own country. I doubt if I will be the only one.

Hepworth

April 21st, 2011 5:06pm Report this comment

UKIP exist for one reason.
To nullify the BNP vote. They are financed by vested interest.
If you think voting for a false flag will help, more fool you.

Tapio O. Neva

April 23rd, 2011 3:42pm Report this comment

"The True Finns ran almost as a single issue party during the final week of the campaign. Their message: we’ll say no to bailing out other Eurozone countries. Seeing as they are almost certainly going to be part of the next Finnish government, this rather throws a spanner in the works of Brussels’ plan to bail out Portugal."

The Social Democratic Party (the member of the European Socialist Party) shared the same opinion with the True Finns during the last two weeks before 17th, April, 2011, the electiond day.

There is some bias in reporting. Mr. Soini and Niinistö (the speaker, National Coalition Party, EPP) share the idea, that bailing out should not continue unlimited to 2013, but the crisis of Greek and Portugal should be taken in process already in 2011 or the early 2012.

This is the key-issue in Finland: either 2011/2012 or 2013, when be bubble is already too big.

The minister of finance, Mr. Jyrki Katainen argued, that starting now, would rise the debt management costs for 800 000 000 euros for the state of Finland, if EURIBOR rose by 1%.

I think, that especially the Financial Times and the Economist should take more time to report the Finnish issue, as the European Socialist Party in Finland, ie. The Social Democratic Party wants to discuss the matter almost in the same spirit as the True Finns with the National Coalition party.

The email of the chairwoman of the Social Democratic party is jutta.urpilainen (Mrs Jutta Urpilainen) at eduskunta.fi and the chairman of the Social Democratic parliamentary group is eero.heinaluoma at eduskunta.fi (Mr. Eero Heinäluoma, ex-minister of Finance).

Please find out and ask directly for the persons responsible in negotiation the next cabinet.

In Finland it is possible, that FM Jyrki Katainen (jyrki.katainen at eduskunta.fi) becomes the prime ministeri, Mrs Jutta Urpilainen becomnes the minister of finance.

Timo Soini's email is timo.soini at eduskunta.fi .

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