The writing's on the wall

Simon Cawkwell

Brown has not been alone in developing this insane housing bubble. Balls has revelled in the restriction of planning permission. They both argued that that would stimulate the economy. But the truth is that it has greatly deterred the development of our own people since, inevitably, young couples cannot afford to pay housing costs and bring up a family. Depopulation of the UK in terms of people originated from those already here (rather than immigrants) has been a disaster. For this alone Brown must surely go.

Nicholas

It is hard to equate the obvious level of feeling expressed by ordinary people (as reported here) and demonstrated by the recent elections with, for example, the BBC Politics Show treatment this afternoon of yet another imminent Brown "re-launch".

This included some slick BBC propaganda for this ailing government and interviewing only obvious Labour die-hards for their advice to Brown. Milliband was in denial and seemed oblivious to the election implications although confused at having to defend his leader's duplicity over Scotland. Not a single opposition person or ordinary man in the street was interviewed or asked for an opinion on the matter. It was an extraordinary piece of biased and subjective reporting, giving Labour a platform for yet more deluded spin as if the events of the past fortnight held no lesson for Labour at all.

How long can this truly awful government presume on the British people as though they have just been elected, with talk of pressing ahead, concentrating on policies and launching yet another series of empty headlines?

And Brown dares to attack Cameron in the Commons for a lack of substance?

Alf Tupper

What a depressing rationale.

The general tenor of this, reminds me of the feckless approach taken by English football pundits at every competition. All eyes are on the draw and the capabilities of the opposition, and the permutations which might best ensure our avoidance of anyone with great talent, and the chances thereof, of fluking it. No emphasis is put at all, on the efficacy of our own team.

The Tories, instead of agonising over how many gasps there are left in a mortally wounded Mr Brown, should rather be sharply focused on the choice of weapon which will finish off both him and the hapless soul handed the task of winding down this sorry term.

It's an unfashionable way to play I know, but right now the Tories should be told to go out, give their best and demoralise the opposition through a confident and clear display of their own talents.

This is of course, to assume they have talents discernible from those of the present government.

Scary Biscuits

Getting rid of Brown would only cause a temporary blip in Labour support, much as Brown's succession did.

The real problem isn't the personality but the policies. Everybody, even hard core Labour supporters, is coming round to the view that Brown's policies (on health, education, the economy, etc) are wrong headed.

Unless Labour change their policies as well as their leader the only question is how much they will lose by. Unfortunately for them none of the contenders, Miliband included, is showing any evidence of having made this intellectual leap. Their best hope therefore lies in a caretaker leader such as Straw to try and minimise the defeat.

Only if they elected somebody like Frank Field would they be genuinely in with a chance of winning.

Ian C

There is no way that Brown can be replaced in these circumstances without bringing on an election. If he was under some pressure to seek his own mandate last autumn it would be overwhelmingly necessary for any successor if he were to be replaced. The question for the Tories is, what is the optimum date for getting rid of him by, if they can influence the date at all? If a recession is going to happen it has not started yet. They won't want to get any of the blame for it if it does. If it does not happen they need to get him out before the recovery from today's uncertainty starts (Brown's only hope as we all see it today). So given the 'known unknowns', if I were the Tory party I would just want him out of there ASAP so he can't do any more damage with his childish politicking and tax and spend behaviour. The best forward measure of measuring the damage expected from the current environment is the £/Euro exchange rate - and we're off the bottom at this time, although it might just be taking a breather while the markets weigh up 'what next'. If the past is anything to go by we have been in a typical 'Labour currency crisis' since last September and it now will not end until the date is set for Labour's departure.

Fabio P.Barbieri

Where, exactly, in Brockley? I live in the neighbourhood and would like to see it and take a photo before someone erases it (this is a red-green area).

mart

Fraser the bit where you lose me is where Mr Brown is supposedly responsible for "artificial restriction on supply of UK housing in the face of ever-rising demand".

The government says it wants 3 million new homes to be built. Let's leave aside the fact that the government can't do this themselves, and that house builders are unlikely to want to provide new product in a bear market.

But let's focus on our green and pleasant land a moment. Let's be a little conservative (small c) and say, do we want 3 million new homes? How many homes do we already have - about 30 million (that's a guess)? So a proposal for 3m new ones is going to increase the size of every town in the UK by a tenth?

It makes no sense to me.

And if 3m is too many, how many is the right number?

Perry

I’m sure Ross Clarke wrote a fine piece for Speccy on this subject several months (year or so?) ago. I cannot find citation. He disputed need for large house building projects.

Chas

A "Lightening rod" is a rod that lightens things. A "lightning conductor" conducts lightning. I think you mean the latter. (the rod suffix is American: do try to avoid it.)

The Laughing Cavalier

The right number is the number that we the people want. It is soviet style planning restrictions enforced by municipal marxists that is largely responsible for the restriction in housing supply.

Alf Tupper

mart.

"do we want 3 million new homes?"
Well, I don't. It doesn't sound like you do either.

But the man currently riding the Istanbul omnibus: he's going to need most of them in the not too distant future that Labour and the EU combine have mapped out for us.

David

This government is also responsible for raising stamp duty rates and for imposing HIPs. Both are inimical to moving house - often it makes more sense to stay put.

Millsee

mart May 11th, 2008 2:22pm said: "the bit where you lose me is where Mr Brown is supposedly responsible for "artificial restriction on supply of UK housing in the face of ever-rising demand"."

Since the turn of the century, the Treasury has had an increasingly tight grip on all facets of Government policy. It was Rothschild who said "Give me control of a country's finances and I will care not one jot who writes the laws".

All policy is, ultimately, reduced to a cost-benefit. Transport policy: DfT requires a business case to assess the impact on the environment but a scheme will not be funded until the benefit-cost ratio has been boiled down including, for example, an allowance for the amount of CO2 released into the atmosphere.

The same applies with planning policy. Only will permission be granted if a site is included in a local development plan, which has economics at its heart.

And this is GB's legacy. Stifling departments' efforts to promote their own agendas without referring to the ever powerful Treasury.

One would think there was a shortage of cash at Government!

John

There should be tougher planning regulations, not more lenient ones (coupled, to be sure, with a complete freeze on any further immigration - and sod the EU). This country is vastly over-populated, and there is a sickening blight of the most awful excuses for 'houses' destroying every town in the land, being built in the most unsuitable places imaginable: in floodplains, on green belt land (the one that the prat Kevin McC. wants to abolish) etc. They want to plonk one of those idiotic 'eco towns' not very far from me, at a spot completely wrong in economic, ecological and transport terms. The whole idea that we should expand indefinitely is insane. And not not every northener has an automatic god-given right to live in the south; and not every Pole has a god-given right to live in England.

Simon Orr

mart: The point is that the government shouldn't decide how many houses are built any more than it decides how many tractors are made. Quantity and type of housing (and development in general) should be left to the market. The governments job should be to make sure the buildings are of sufficient quality and appropriate for the area.

Infrastructure? Thats what planning departments are actually for!

john cornford

All along, Cameroon has failed to demonstrate that he knows what is happening. To fight Crewe etc on the 10p tax change is to try to shoot a fox already dead. He should follow up the public mood - which is only just realising that Broon's vaunted economic success was a theatre of smoke and mirrors - built on vast increases in 'employment' in the so-called public sector; the spending of vast amounts of money 'borrowed' from the future via public private partnerships, on the NHS and other infrastructure, so producing a 'boom' in construction that is about to grind to a halt (and meanwhile the productive part of the economy has been withering away) Not to mention the enormous 'stealth' taxes, pension fund and telecoms network raids, sale of the nation's gold at give-away prices etc, that our honest joe from the manse neglected to mention to the electorate. And now we have Milliband telling us that Broon has 'passionate' beliefs ! (so did Hitler) - God preserve us from passionate beliefs that involve stealing from the taxpayer to salve the believer's social conscience without even admitting the fact to us.
Mr Cameron - you MUST make clear to the electorate that they have been conned by Nulab all along - not just with the 10p trick. Only by doing so will they turn convincingly away from Blair's and Broon's quackery.

Lee Jakeman

"Just as anti-Toryism was for a long time the strongest political force in Scotland, so anti-Brownism has become a huge force in Britain." Why can't you ever say ENGLAND? Labour is ANTI-ENGLISH.

Water

"Brown’s survival is vital to Tory chances at the next election" absolutely, but then again the next GE is a long way away. Though it seems hard to see how Gordon is going to win back the publics favour.

Brockley Nick

If you want to see the graffiti, here it is:

http://brockleycentral.blogspot.com/2008/05/how-brockley-central-works.html

Kevyn Bodman

re. John at 6.32pm on May 11th.

YES, every northerner has an automatic right to live in the south.
And every native of Devon has an automatic right to live in Shropshire, and so on.
No internal passports or residnce permits in the UK, please.

As for Poles ,that's a different issue. And it shouldn't be confined to Poles who are largely industrious and law-abiding.
The issue there is, should the UK stay in the EU?
I say 'No' to that question.

mart

Simon: do you concede that the government has a role in providing housing to those unable to afford market rents or a mortgage? If yes, then I humbly submit that your argument as presented should be modified to accommodate this point.

That is, the government (insofar as it is a public servant) does have an interest in the quantity as well as the quality of housing.

However, all this being said, I don't support the "central planner" type of assertion that Britain must have 3m (or even 1m!) new homes.

Fabio P.Barbieri

Brockley Nick - thanks. I suspect that the writing on the wall is, to mix metaphors, on the wrong side of the tracks.

John R

Could we please stop referring to it as a housing "boom"? It is *not* a boom, it is a bubble - an asset price bubble fuelled by cheap debt. Booms are healthy. Bubbles are not. This needs to be hammered home - it's Brown's Bubble like the gold sales were Brown's Bottom.

Oh, and @ john cornford - at 49% in the polls, I'd say Cameron's doing pretty well at demonstrating "that he knows what's happening". :-)

Water

Add ageing tax to the list.