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Monday, 30th May 2011

Gaddafi’s position weakens

David Blackburn 6:12pm

As Noman Benotman predicted, Colonel Gaddafi’s relations with his military are disintegrating. Reuters is reporting that 120 loyalist officers have defected and arrived in Rome.

Details are scant, but this is a major success for Britain and France’s attempt to effect regime change without intensifying their military deployment. There will be doubts as to how long the resilient dictator can survive without loyal military leadership. Gaddafi now has to choose how to respond to this treachery – rough justice may be tempting, but that might deepen the rebelliousness of his officers, increasing the likelihood of a coup. NATO will be trying to exploit this stroke of luck, encouraging further defections.

PS: Gaddafi's coumpound has again been hit by NATO bombing. There's a possibility that Jacob Zuma, the President of South Africa, was in the compound at the time – he had been attempting to broker peace. Either way, Zuma was unhurt and is now on his way back to South Africa.

Filed under: Britain (738 more articles) , Foreign Policy (318 more articles) , France (246 more articles) , Gaddafi (134 more articles) , Libya (295 more articles) , Military (271 more articles) , NATO (123 more articles)

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Russell

May 30th, 2011 6:44pm Report this comment

A pity they couldn't have got Zuma and Gaddafi at the same time. Both rotten leaders and both total thieves stealing millions from their people.

Fergus Pickering

May 30th, 2011 6:59pm Report this comment

Imagine hitting Jacob Zuma, or one of his posse of wives. It looks as if Ghaddafi (or however you spell it) was the one to hit because he was the one to lose. The most important thing in a war is not the right and the wrong but the winning and losing. Maybe, just maybe, Cameron got this one right.

Bloody Bill Brock

May 30th, 2011 7:10pm Report this comment

I very much hope that Gaddafi does crumble very soon. 1)Lives saved, 2)a deeply unpleasant gangster is removed from power, hopefully dead,3)those on the left who have never stopped whining about the Libya question since it began, but who supported a government prepared to constantly give Gaddafi fellatio, will just shut up.

Norman Dee

May 30th, 2011 7:10pm Report this comment

Zuma is on his way home, where he will, no doubt, take the traditional African route and support Gaddafi "He may be a shit, but he's our shit"

A J Scott

May 30th, 2011 7:25pm Report this comment

Well, Mr Zuma would have been a serendipitous collateral inclusion in a strike on Gaddafi.

Thomas

May 30th, 2011 7:48pm Report this comment

I hope Mr. Zuma washed the stench of mass murder off himself like he can dowith AIDS proir to leaving whatever bunker/orphanage/cancer ward he met that other African looney in.

Hugo Chav

May 30th, 2011 8:48pm Report this comment

What about Assad! Murder and torture are going through the roof in Syria. Why has Assad not been referred to the International Criminal Court and had a warrant issued like Gadaffi's?

Fergus Pickering

May 30th, 2011 10:51pm Report this comment

Because, Hugo, Ghaddafi is more vulnerable than Assad i.e. easier to beat. And that is surely the wisest course.

Austin Barry

May 30th, 2011 10:58pm Report this comment

Hugo Chav@ 8.48 pm asks, "What about Assad?"

Well, apparently, per the Israeli intelligence website DEBKAfile, Obama and Dmitry Medvedev have agreed that the US will let Assad finish off the Syrian uprising without too much pressure from the US. In return, the Russian president will help the US draw the Libyan war to a close by bringing about Qaddafi's exit from power i.e. the West has traded Assad for Qaddafi and we, the little people, shouldn't worry about the morality or the body count.

David Taylor

May 30th, 2011 11:38pm Report this comment

Well some interesting comments on your article above,David.
Has anyone considered the effects of a constant bombing campaign on the children of Lybia? Now that nice Mr Cameron has authorized the dropping of even larger (bunker busting) bombs. These are truly horrific weapons and make no mistake, they will be dropped near populated areas.
This war on Libya has already cost the UK taxpayer an additional £4.5 billion (I thought we were hard up) and it will come to be known as Cameron's Folly.
This war has escalated (as they all tend to do) so that it is no longer about enforcing some nebulous UN resolution but has become a matter of pride that NATO can win against a defenceless country.
The Russians were concerned that this would happen but didn't vote against the action for their own political reasons and now seem keen to bring it to a close before the next phase of desperation occurs.

John Montague

May 31st, 2011 12:46am Report this comment

The meltdown seems to be accelerating. Even more officers are deserting across the Tunisian border.

Verity

May 31st, 2011 3:02am Report this comment

Why do we give a crap about Libya?

Just go in and annex their oilfields. Pay them rent. And let them get on with their desert-dictator-life as they have for thousands of years.

Before paying for the oil, deduct £20bn for the murder of PC Yvonne Fletcher and let her family decide how it should be distributed.

Jimmy R

May 31st, 2011 4:53am Report this comment

“Well, apparently, per the Israeli intelligence website DEBKAfile” Austin Barry May 30th, 2011 11:38pm

So DEBKAfile is the Israeli intelligence website. Well this is what the site describes itself as:-

“DEBKAfile was founded by a team of journalists in June 2000 as an independent Internet Web site, providing an intelligence and security news service.”

So what you claim is a report from the Israeli intelligence website is, in fact, nothing but a version of events offered by a bunch of Journalists. That is one huge difference in accreditation and it seems they are the only source which seems to have been aware of the unsupported claim they are making, which in itself seems rather strange in this modern day and age.

Fergus Pickering

May 31st, 2011 5:47am Report this comment

Austin Barry, why should more bodies (or at least more of OUR bodies) be expended on killing Ghaddafi than on killing Assad? Les, I would have thought. And I d hate Tories puling about morality. That's the socialist thing. WE are conerned with reality and the art of the possible. What's all this self-pitying little peole stuff? More lefty sentimentality I think. Morality is msostly a matter of fashion. Who can doubt that we would have been better to leave Serbia alone. We have added to the power and influence of Albania, surely the most lawless collection of criminals in the world.

Peter From Maidstone

May 31st, 2011 8:28am Report this comment

David Taylor, where do you get 4.5 billion from as the cost of involvement in Libya? All the reports I have seen suggest 300 million with a cost of about 38 million per day ongoing.

Vulture

May 31st, 2011 8:52am Report this comment

To paraphrase the Bible
'Gadaffi has killed his thousands, and Assad his tens of thousands'.

We must all trust that the war of Dave's Folly does not end in more tears and blood.

Andrew Fletcher

May 31st, 2011 8:59am Report this comment

We get to the head of the line on high quality oil
Russia gets to keep their guy Assad in return for giving us the nod
It's a fair enough deal but what I object to is the b.s. that gets trotted out - "freedom, democracy,blah blah"
It gets to the point where even some of the government don't really swallow it (i.e. Jeremy Brown and Bagshawe on QT last week, reduced to "going fake emotional" on democracy etc)
The government should treat us like grown ups. It's about oil, it's about a trade off with Russia, it's in our national interest, so let's get on with it

Hugo Chav

May 31st, 2011 9:56am Report this comment

Andrew Fletcher,

You're bang-on. It's the awful sanctimony that grates and makes me very angry.

Any fool who backs up these lying politicians has obviously not learnt the lessons of Iraq & Afghanistan.

Maddy1

May 31st, 2011 10:05am Report this comment

Rats do desert the sinking ship!

Remittance Man

May 31st, 2011 10:48am Report this comment

Nah! Zuma was already on his way home and nowhere near the compound when it was bombed.

How do I know?

Because I was listenng to the ANC SABC news this morning and believe me, if western bombs had fallen anywhere near Zuma it would have been the only thing being discussed. Instead we had some eejit rabbiting on about Walmart buying up a local chain of discount shops.

Jamie B

May 31st, 2011 12:05pm Report this comment

David - Only a small point but this would seem to be a victory for the Italians rather than UK and France. It is anglo-centric to view this campaign in bilateral terms particularly as it ignores the heavy contribution being made by other states, not least Qatar and UAE.

Chris

May 31st, 2011 12:11pm Report this comment

Interesting use of the word 'loyalist' to mean its exact opposite, there.

David Taylor

May 31st, 2011 8:09pm Report this comment

Peter from Maidstone
as you know, the MOD will not disclose costs of an ongoing operation (because it frightens the horses apparently) so I used a published media estimate of £50m per day and we are now in month 3 of this affair (so £1.5billion per month x3).
Even using your figures of £38m per day that would come to £3.4billion so £300m seems very light to me. Perhaps a bit of spin going on again as usual because these costs are totally unjustifible in our present (and forseeable future) economic woes.

John Montague

May 31st, 2011 11:47pm Report this comment

Estimates I've seen for the total cost of allied operations suggest 1 billion for the first 15 days, then 350 million a fortnight thereafter. So about 2 billion for the first 2 months, with a lot of the cost being borne by the US (all those expensive tomahawks).

That's everybody. The UK Government apparently announced that the first (very intensive) four days of operations cost some 32 million.If any of this is at all accurate, that would give a pro-rata UK cost over 2 months of a minimum 300 million.

Counterpose that to BP's commitment to a minimum £2 billion investment, possibly extending to a £20 billion programme over time, and the usefulness of reducing European dependence on Russian gas. Shell have a big stake too; in fact it seems Yank was wrong to stress BP's role so much, Shell appears to have benefited most from UK government assistance in Libya.

John Montague

June 1st, 2011 12:04am Report this comment

Ah,, glitch. All undenominated figures are in Euros

Minnie Ovens

June 1st, 2011 11:20am Report this comment

There's a possibility that Jacob Zuma, the President of South Africa, was in the compound

Not true but one could only hope.
Just think, two for the price of one.

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