Europe, the times they are a-changin'

Jack Simpson

I used to think EU membership was essential in order for Britain to maintain global influence in respect of foreign policy, but Libya changed my mind because Europe was so hopelessly divided on it, leading me to realise that Europe can't speak with one voice after all. I'm still unconvinced we should leave altogether, but we really need to consider what the nature of our relationship should be.

RCE

I cannot help but feel that this talk of a Damascene coversion to a view that has been held by most Britons for decades is a disingenuous attempt to assuage growing criticism of a govt that shows its ineptitude on a daily basis.

If they think we should get out then we should get out now: the principle will not change over time. Every day that passes is yet more money down the drain. If they don't really think we should get out and this is just an attempt to throw 'red meat' to the right, then we'll see such chatter continue until the next GE, when a vague promise of some sort of reform will be made in order to stop many Tories voting UKIP and denying Cast Iron Dave a majority (again).

I know where my money is.

denis cooper

James -

Did you happen to read my comment on your last article along these lines, on June 17th?

Here:

http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/7033788/how-the-tories-could-capitalise-on-the-eurozones-woes.thtml

It ran:

"James -

"As I wrote last week, if the eurozone countries decide that a solution will require a treaty change then Britain has a veto over that - and could use the negotiations to secure various things that Britain wants from the EU."

And as I pointed out to you the week before:

http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/6997913/camerons-european-opportunity.thtml

"Cameron has already agreed to a radical treaty amendment without asking for or getting anything at all in return.

Here are the Conclusions from the March 24/25 meeting of the European Council:

http://www.consilium.europa.eu/uedocs/cms_data/docs/pressdata/en/ec/120296.pdf

and Item 16 on page 7 is:

"Recalling the importance of ensuring financial stability in the euro area, the European Council adopted the decision amending the TFEU with regard to the setting up of the European Stability Mechanism. It calls for the rapid launch of national approval procedures with a view to its entry into force on 1 January 2013."

Plus in reply to Feste later that same Friday afternoon:

"As stated above, Cameron has already agreed to a radical treaty amendment without asking for any quid pro quo, and he was pre-authorised to do that by both Houses of Parliament without any Tory MP suggesting that maybe they needed a new leader.

The Lords agreed on March 21st - the short debate starts at Column 527 here:

http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201011/ldhansrd/text/110321-0002.htm

and the motion was passed without a vote in the next section.

The Commons had a similarly brief debate on March 16th, starting at Column 421 here:

http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201011/cmhansrd/cm110316/debtext/110316-0004.htm

"The Minister for Europe (Mr David Lidington): I beg to move,

That this House takes note of draft European Council decision EUCO 33/10 (to amend Article 136 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union with regard to a stability mechanism for Member States whose currency is the euro) and, in accordance with section 6 of the European Union (Amendment) Act 2008, approves Her Majesty's Government's intention to support the adoption of draft European Council decision EUCO 33/10."

The vote was deferred to March 23rd, Budget Day, Division No 236 at Column 1063 here:

http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201011/cmhansrd/cm110323/debtext/110323-0004.htm

MPs voted 310 - 29 to send Cameron to the European Council the next day with a formal mandate not to negotiate, but to simply agree to the proposed treaty change.

The government claims that the treaty change is not within the scope of the so-called "referendum lock", and so there will be no referendum.

Instead there will just be an Act to finally approve the treaty change, but it's not easy to see how MPs and peers who willingly pre-authorised Cameron to agree to it could subsequently vote against it." "

If large numbers of Tory MPs are really coming round to the idea that we should leave altogether, as you claim, then we should expect them to start their rebellion against Cameron by blocking that Bill.

Axstane

I know that most of the replies will say that Cameron is a Europhile and even some that say he wants to secure a future as an EU official but I ignore those repetitve claims since they simple stifle rational debate.

As I see it Cameron dare not initiate a divorce from the EU whilst our nation is in such economic turmoil. If he did, and our economy worsened - one of two possibilities - he would go down in history as a vandal of a recovering economy.

Cameron's best play is to allow the EU to become more and more ridiculous, convoluted and demanding. He will forsee that popularity of its institions will wane throughout the Nordic and Teutonic countries. Couple with the unsolvable plight of the PIIGS he might see the EU dissolve in front of his eyes.

It is clear that most people, including MPs and some Ministers, are very disturbed by the whole EU matter. Many can admire a stately liner whilst it floats but that will not blind them to its plight when it sinks. However, take a poll as to whether taxes for the rich should be increased and almost all except the rich will vote for it so a plurality of public opinion is not always a good measure.

What is really clear is that the collapse of the Euro or the demise of the EU will be world-shattering on economies. We don't have the money for enough lifeboats to sail away from the wreck. We will caught in the undertow.

John Bracewell

I will believe it when I see it and if true, not before time.

Slim Jim

Well, we can live in hope, but frankly, this is just a pipe dream. Will our political class (not just the Coalition government) allow such thoughts to mature and flourish? Remember how they connived and conspired to avoid a referendum on the Lisbon treaty? Will they manage to square the circle between unemployment, immigration and housing costs in the UK? Will they realise that our hands are not only tied behind our backs, but our feet are encased in concrete too, thanks to poor human rights legislation? Don't hold your breath.

barnacle bill

" ... David Cameron to use the coming years to develop a far looser relationship with Brussels."

Before or after he becomes an EU Commissioner?

Rhoda Klapp

So the theory advanced elsewhere that this is merely a placement exercise designed to bring the disillusioned voters back to the tory party is not even to be discussed? We will not (OK, I speak only for myself) be impressed by words. Or hints and allegations. Their trust is gone, and they need to do far more to rebuild it than feed fairy stories to the lobby.

RKing

It was generally stated that it was in the interest of the ordinary people to remain in the EU but recently it has clearly been shown that this is not the case. Take Greece as an example. It surely would be far better for the greeks to leave the euro at least and realign their exchange rate to suit the financial mess that they are in. Since tourism is probably their major industry then the tourists might begin to flock there again giving their economy a much needed boost. The same applies to Spain and Portugal.

Recently IDS suggested that bosses in the UK should give preference to UK workers and in a TV discussion a representative of employers quite bluntly said "No Way".
He was only interested in foreign workers which gave him a better cash returns.

So much for the EU being in the interests of the people.

It's my belief that from day one the EU experiment was never about the people and the replies that it would be a disaster for us to leave are merely a smokescreen.

GET US OUT!!!!

The Laughing Cavalier

The first thing we need to do is take back the billions in rebate that Blair gave away in his attempt to buy the Presidency with other people's money (aka the long-suffering taxpayer).

David Parker

The majority of the so called elite of the political class (of all parties) as well as most of the senior Whitehall civil servants are fundamentally in favour of The European Project of ever closer union and increasing centralisation of government. They may differ in their views about the best ways of achieving this and be critical of some of the obvious mistakes which have been made, but at heart they still remain euro-federalists.

What has changed is not their basic acceptance of the principles of the EU, but their slow realisation that the increasing unpopularity of the EU and its intrusions into their lives amongst the majority of the electorate will now become a far more important factor in future general elections than has been the case in the past.

Apart from the few stalwart eurosceptic MPs who have always openly advocated withdrawal, the bulk of our senior politicians, whilst paying lip service to the need for reform, have up to now been resolutely opposed to British withdrawal from the EU. Having tried for so long to suppress any genuine debate about Britain's continued membership their sudden change of heart will rightly be viewed as being more opportunistic than genuine.

Even if both Labour and the Conservatives were forced, as a matter of political expediency, to guarantee an in/out referendum as a part of their election manifesto,could either of these parties be trusted to negotiate a new relationship with the EU which would genuinely be in Britain's best interests?

Number 7

About time too!

It would appear that the Eurofederalists are even better than Liebore - if that's possible - at Pouring taxpayers' money down a black hole.

barry laughton

I certainly won't be holding my breath. Past and present performance by the Coalition has not shown any movement towards any change in the UK-EU relationship.

David Ossitt

There is a tide in the affairs of men,
Which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune; Omitted, all the voyage of their life, Is bound in shallows and in miseries.

Shakespeare, Julius Caesar IV, iii, 217

The tide is almost here.

John Steed

It ain't gonna happen. You just watch.

Bruce, UK

If only.

Liz Brown

How I wish that Cameron would find the cojones to take us uot - but that can only be a pipe dream whilst he still courts Clegover

Duyfken

I'll believe it when I see it done, and not before. My mistrust is deep.

Graham

The EU matter should be put to a referendum. However,the politicians will do all in their power to prevent this happening.

NMO

All very interesting but what percentage of people reading this will pay to access the Times online? Not many I suspect. So why keep plugging articles behind a paywall? Does the Spectator have an interest in doing so?

I havent read a Parris piece since he disappeared behind the Times paywall and I'm not going to start now.

John

Sounds like Dog Whistle politics again, or whatever the spinners call it. When they actually DO something to restore even the slightest piece of our Soveriegnty, we can start to trust them. How sad that all trust has been lost.

James Strong

I'm in favour of leaving the EU too and am content for people to know that.
The three cabinet members and half the Tory MPs who want to leave and are not content for people to know that are men and women of dubious honour and courage.
What are they doing to get us out?
I suppose they are making discreet representations behind the scenes etc. etc.

Not nearly good enough.

Get us out.

Andy H

So finally the fog is lifting, and the political elites that formerly had there head turned by the allure of power without responsibility, un audited expenses and a comfortable life on the teat of the European excess are seeing what we, the general population have been seeing for a long time.

How can these so called clued up experts have been deluded for so long?

Maybe James, you should reconsider those whom you hold in high esteem, and realize that there judgement has been faulty for a long time.

Forget how the person got there, but there conclusion is exactly the same as many have been outlining for years.

Your answer should have been why has it taken you so long........?

strapworld

And pigs will fly!

The A listers will do what Cameron tells them to do. Bill Cash will make his speeches which always bore. (He would do the Eurosceptics a service if he just supported them and did not speak.) I am afraid what is left of both the Labour Party and Conservative activists are mainly anti the EU, but they are always ignored. The leadership of both major parties are EU supporters and will not change.

Of course Cameron may well promise a referendum leading up to a general election. But will decide against holding one after the election, unless he loses of course.

Ukip is ridiculous. There are so many flotsom and jetsom groups, parties who want out. Why they cannot all get together under one banner and one leader is beyond me. At least then they may stand a chance.

It will take a mass movement of the people, along the Tea Party lines, before these stupid politicians will do anything remotely in the UK interest.

MaxSceptic

Inshallah!

oldtimer

I read that Mr Barroso has offered Mr Cameron c23 billion euros to drop all our rebate entitlements. I have a better idea. We drop the EU.

It is difficult to see the UK leaving the EU under the present political leadership. They are all contaminated by power. They all need, and deserve, to be sacked for their mismanagement of the UK economy and its relationship with the EU.

I expect to wait in vain for this to happen and for new leadship, with the necessary gumption to make the fundamental changes that the UK now requires to arrest its decline.

Slim Jim

Is the political class finally coming to realise that membership of the EU and the ECHR is actually the problem and not the solution? Welcome to reality!

In2minds

To get the UK out of the EU? Simple, first get rid of Cameron.

Andrew Shakespeare

As with everything involving David Cameron, I'll believe it when I see it.

Dimoto

Axstane - spot on.
The people who think we can just up and leave the EU and suddenly everything will be lovely, are identical in intellectual prowess, to the Greeks who think default is the easy option.

A more interesting blog-post would have been news of wavering of Euro-enthusiasm in the ranks of the LibDems.
Tory blaming of the LibDems for failure of the government to "sort" EU membership could be a profitable tactic in Con/LibDem marginals next election.

As for the under-class, they have always been with us, but they can't be shipped off to the colonies or foreign wars these days.
IDS might succeed in reducing their numbers to a more manageable/affordable level though.

Mirtha Tidville

Cameron is wedded to the EU...he probably thinks it even has some merit so nothing will change and we will still be unable to deport Somali Bandits...I despair!!

Y Rhyfelwr Dewr

This is why I believe the bailouts are a good thing. The Eurosceptic movement is picking up a real momentum now, fuelled by the bailouts. The more we have, the greater the pressure becomes to quit.

The best thing the federasts could do would be to refuse any further bailouts, allow Greece, Ireland, and all others to quit the common currency, and carry on with a two-speed Europe based on a central rump of relatively successful Eurozone economies. It would defuse all that public anger, and they could carry on running their racket as before.

Happily for us, they're too stupid and arrogant to see sense, so it won't happen, more bailouts will follow, and Britain will eventually quit the EU.

Fex Urbis

@Denis Cooper,

Of course he didn't, he's got a life.

Charles Martel

There is just one big problem.

Cameron has absolutely no credibility on this issue. He has spent his entire time as leader of the Conservatives undermining the eurosceptic wing of the party, barring people who support the Better Off Out campaign from government (and in opposition).
He has also alienated many Libertarians by calling them closet racists.

The flurry of 'eurosceptic news' over the last few weeks is probably that Cameron now understanding that he will never get enough votes trying to be the LibDems.
He will also never win an election without the right wingers on board (i.e. most of the party).

The party has to find a replacement for Cameron and fast. If the LibDems impolode, we could be getting an election faster than many think. Time to plan for post Cameron, the Jimmy Carter of British politics.

Simon Stephenson.

Axstane : 10.36am

"What is really clear is that the collapse of the Euro or the demise of the EU will be world-shattering on economies."

Well, this appears to be the received wisdom, but I wonder how true it actually is?

As far as the euro goes, the unspeakable truth is that just as the euro has been bad for the inefficient economies, it has been good for the efficient ones. Germany, for example, has benefited enormously from being able to trade in a currency far weaker than would have been the case under the deutschemark. To me, the idea that there should be fiscal transfers between Germany and the PIIGS would not be an act of generosity - it would be a payment for being instrumental in keeping down the value of the currency, and a recognition that the influence of Germany's economy makes it very difficult for the economies of less commercially orientated cultures to compete at the prevailing exchange rate.

This is the reality for the euro - that the stronger nations need to be prepared to pay for the competitive advantage they receive from sharing a currency with the weaker nations. With this type of arrangement agreed, there's no reason why the euro shouldn't survive. After all, take the separate nations away, and it's no different from the fiscal transfers from South to North that take place in the UK economy - with separate currencies, the SouthPound would appreciate while the NorthPound would devalue, but without separate currencies there must be fiscal transfers.

And if the political EU is abandoned, and replaced with a free-trade area, there should after a few initial hiccups be little difference to economies - unless one believes the assertion that it is only the EU's political emasculation of sovereign nation-states that is preventing Europe from sinking into war once again. If this is true then of course economies, and much else, will be very much affected. But is it true?

JohnPage

Cameron won't deliver. He's an EU Quisling.

disenfranchised

i got to see what the EU was about when travelling regularly to luxembourg and brussels almost thirty years ago. i witnessed total frustration from those with a conscience, feeling immense pity for them, at the same time feeling only disgust at the total excess being quite unashamedly gorged upon by others.
if cameron were a man of honour he would now be moving heaven and earth to give us his promised referendum.
but politicians, be they of westminster or brussels, could't care less about the feelings of the people, so our only hope is that the venal EU finally collapses under the weight of it's ever-increasing debt.....

John Bracewell

Simon Stephenson 3.35
I think the answer to your final question is No.
Since 1949 when the EU was created, with the trading not peace of Europe in mind, there are now 2 differences, NATO has become more organised and at least 2 countries, France and Britain, have nuclear weapons. Starting a third world war under the changed circumstances is unlikely and the existence of the EU would not stop it if a country was so determined to start something. Nothing will stop the minor skirmishes from time to time but NATO and nuclear weapons should prevent escalation. NATO intervened in the breakup of Yugoslavia not the EU. The EU as an entity has no say in the UN, it is the individual countries that determine any military response to any aggressive acts. So, I cannot agree with the argument that it is the EU that has prevented a pan-European war since WW2. It is just a convenient idea touted by Europhiles.

Verity

RCE 10:25 a.m. Me too.

Steve Tierney

I've always thought that we'd end up leaving and I'm just biding my time waiting for it to happen.

It'll be a wonderful day.

Verity

They're liars.

I think this next time, they will get whipped at the ballot box. It began to happen at the last GE, with -- even after 11 disastrous and treacherous years of manipulative socialism, the Tories couldn't get enough votes to formm a government.

This has apparently taught them nothing.

Look for a huge surge in the smaller parties, with UKIP at the front, at the next GE. I think UKIP will get seven or eight seats. Possibly more. It would be nice to see them in third place. (Even nicer to see them in first, of course, but such a sea change isn't going to happen.) I would also expect the EDL and the BNP to get at least one seat each.

Geert Wilders' party came from nowhere and now the government can't make a move without their approval and many expect Geert Wilders to be the next PM.

Paging Nigel Farage. Will Mr Nigel Farage please pick up one of the white courtesy phones on the concourse.

Verity

Slim Jones - "Is the political class finally coming to realise that membership of the EU and the ECHR is actually the problem and not the solution?"

No. They have known it is a totalitarian construct all along. They just wanted to be at the top table.

However, the voter ground is shifting under their feet and they are lying to save their sinecures.

Simon Stephenson.

John Bracewell : 4.31pm

Yes, it certainly is the europhiles' trump card - that we must put up with everything that's bad about the EU, because without the EU we'd have been at each others throats for the last 60 years. Maybe this is what they genuinely believe - I hope so, because the downsides of the EU are considerable, and if they are being offset by a knowingly false justification, in order to support the dream rather than the reality, then the people of the EU are being very badly served.

bojimbo

The EU is one big insurance scam ; " if you run out of money , the others will contribute " .

Cynic

"His answer, to my surprise, was "forget that, we should just leave"." Why were you surprised? That he had finally woken up to the delusion of trying to reform the EU from the inside? Or that he was even daring to think the unthinkable and breathe the 'out' word? We, here, in the real world at the grass roots have been able to see the EU for what it is for a long time. It costs us a fortune for which we get no benefits (who considers Corpus Juris and open borders beneficial?). It hasn't had its accounts signed off for over a decade (and the whistle-blower was sacked). It ignores the wishes of the people (think of all the votes that went against EU wishes only to be ignored or the people made to vote again until they got the answer 'right'). It is h*ll-bent on rushing towards ever an closer union of disparate peoples (how well did that work in Yugoslavia?). The only hope is that eventually the corrupt and ruinously expensive EU will disappear up its own fundament, but I sincerely hope we've escaped before then.

denis cooper

Fex Urbis -

Yes, James Forsyth has a life, and he also has a paid job as a journalist producing supposedly accurate and informative articles.

denis cooper

To clarify, so far Cameron has agreed to TWO further amendments to the EU treaties, both of which are now in the pipeline for final ratification by all member states so they can come into force.

The first, agreed in June 2010, is the Transitional Protocol on MEPs, which is necessary to sort out the legal pickle created by the German government's refusal to withdraw 3 of the 93 MEPs elected in Germany in June 2009.

Those 93 MEPs were elected under the pre-Lisbon rules, and the German government had made no provision to cut their numbers to the new maximum of 90 for any country if/when the Lisbon Treaty came into force.

This does mean that the EU Parliament has been unlawfully constituted since the Lisbon Treaty came into force on December 1st 2009, and all its acts since then should be deemed null and void; but nobody seems much bothered about that, and I don't think many people would say that this small technical amendment to the treaties merits a referendum or it should have been used as a bargaining chip to recover powers from the EU.

On the other hand the second treaty change already agreed by Cameron, at the March 24/25 meeting of the European Council, is a radical amendment to Article 136 TFEU which would over-turn the "no bail-out" clauses in the treaties and legalise future eurozone bail-outs, and that is of an entirely different order of magnitude.

If I saw large numbers of Tory MPs voting to block the Bill to approve that amendment then I would start to believe that discontent with the EU was boiling up among their ranks.

ndm

Britain has no future outside the European Union, which remains the only game in town. Outside the European Union, Britain would be little more than a third-rate state.

Britain, just like Iceland, would have to obey EU regulations to gain access to the single market without any say whatsoever over the policies of that market. That there are two or three Conservative cabinet secretataries talking about exit strategies only demonstrates how stupid the upper leadership of the Conservative Party is.

Perry

I cannot understand how the H2B has the audacity to be photographed in front of our National Flag, - except to provide further proof that he is tainted with Bliarist cynicism.

Verity

ndm - Not if we joined the US and became a state. And not if we formalised the Commonwealth that wouldn't result in even more third world garbage mysteriously finding the money for one-way plane tickets.

On second thoughts, becoming a state of the US is more appealing and less tricky.

Boudicca

Are we really supposed to believe that the Conservative Party under Cameron will do anything about the UK's relationship with the EU. Pull the other one.

This sudden burst of Euroscepticism on behalf of the Tories is a desperate attempt to start recovering the votes Cameron gave away when he cancelled the Lisbon Referendum and 'came' out as the most Europhile PM since Heath. They have suddenly realised that ex LibDim votes are going back to Labour and the CONservatives are going to need the anti-EU UKIP votes at the next GE.

Do they really think people who have left the Conservative Party and defected to UKIP will return to the Tory fold because a few journalists start publishing articles saying (once again) the next Conversative Government will start the process of recovering powers. It will never happen. Cameron will not use the only weapon that would make the Commissars take notice - the threat of a UK IN/OUT Referendum. Those who have taken the step of leaving the CONservatives to join UKIP, don't want a renegotiation - they want OUT. So their votes won't be going back to the Tories unless a free and fair IN/OUT Referendum is guaranteed.

David Cameron - "There will be no Referendum on the EU because I believe it is in the interests of the UK to be in the EU." No amount of alleged Tory Euroscepticism will be credible unless Cameron is ditched; and that isn't likely to happen any time soon.

Y Rhyfelwr Dewr

ndm @ 6.33

I'm sorry to say we haven't much a future IN the European Union.

When we joined the Common Market in 1973, its economies accounted for a third of global GDP. It's now a quarter and falling rapidly -- by 2020, it will be less than a sixth.

During the same period, the USA has maintained its share of global GDP, and for all its problems, looks like continuing to do so.

But your assessment of the UK's prospects outside the EU are excessively gloomy. For a start, our access to European markets is guaranteed by World Trade Organisation treaties that are not dependent upon membership of the EU.

The EU exports considerably more to the UK than vice versa -- any time Brussels wanted to play silly buggers with us, we could hurt them harder than they could hurt us, and they know it.

Greenland used to be a member of the EEC, but left in the 1980's, since when, it has prospered. While Iceland's economy is not out of the woods yet, it is recovering considerably better than the EU's economy is -- or Britain's.

You are forgetting the very considerable anti-competitive liabilities that the EU imposes upon British business. Leaving the EU would leave us free to lift red tape and cut taxes considerably, allowing us to compete more readily with the rest of the world.

Leaving the EU would also leave us free to trade freely with the rest of the world, without the tariffs and protectionism that EU membership imposes. Britain enjoys a healthy trade surplus with every continent in the world EXCEPT Europe.

Remember that we have the Commonwealth -- 54 nations, all over the world, with a combined population 6 times that of the EU -- which we have sadly neglected these past four decades. What would, for example, India's population -- three times the populations of the entire EU combined -- be worth were we permitted to trade freely with them?

Let's not forget that Switzerland -- tiny, landlocked, lacking any sort of Commonwealth trade structure, and NOT a member of the EU -- is one of the richest countries in the world.

Or Mauritius -- even tinier, and literally a thousand miles from anywhere -- is a very successful little country: calm, peaceful, orderly, democratic, not rich but getting richer every year through decades of steady economic growth, without membership of any supra-national organisation except the Commonwealth.

You've been listening to hysterical federasts too much, ndm. Lacking a coherent argument against Britain's withdrawal, they resort to prophecies of doom and gloom in an effort to terrify people like you into behaving yourselves. Do you really want to subject yourself to a government like that? One that thinks fear is a legitimate way of manipulating the People? Are those the kind of people you want ruling you?

Y Rhyfelwr Dewr

Verity @ 7.20

Have you actually lived in the US for any length of time?

I lived there for some years, and trust me when I say that, our combined history and language not withstanding, it is a very, very different country to ours.

Becoming the fifty-first state would not work. Nor do I think the Americans would be remotely interested in having us.

I, for one, would not be remotely interested in becoming American. I love America. My wife is American, and our children have dual nationality. We'll be celebrating the 4th of July tomorrow evening. The USA is unquestionably my second home. But I'm British, and I have no desire to cease being so -- efforts to subsume my nationality into that of another country are half the problem with the EU!

ndm

Y Rhyfelwr Dewr writes:

-- Greenland used to be a member of the EEC, but left in the 1980's, since when, it has prospered. While Iceland's economy is not out of the woods yet, it is recovering considerably better than the EU's economy is -- or Britain's.

According to WikiPedia the populations of Iceland and Greenland are:

Iceland - 318,452
Greenland - 56,615

They are not exactly good models on how the UK would fare outside the EU.

As to Switzerland, its economy remains parasitic - since it is based on Switzerland's status as a tax "haven." As to Mauritius - that surely smacks of desperation.

ndm

Verity writes:

-- ndm - Not if we joined the US and became a state. And not if we formalised the Commonwealth that wouldn't result in even more third world garbage mysteriously finding the money for one-way plane tickets.

Ah, yes. Britain would be the largest state in the union and would have the same power in the US Senate as Montana. That is surely the fastest way to make the UK utterly irrelevant.

David Lindsay

Not only would the negotiations necessary in order to leave the EU drag on for years and years, but calling the referendum “a device of demagogues and dictators” was Thatcher’s only ever favourable quotation of a Labour Prime Minister. Yet to those who worship at Thatcher’s altar while wholly ignoring her record on this and so much else, the demand for that deeply flawed and wholly foreign device has become a nervous tick. They honestly cannot see how Pythonesque it is to demand a referendum in the cause of defending parliamentary sovereignty. The Lisbon Treaty is self-amending, so there can never be another treaty. What is needed is legislation with five simple clauses.

First, the restoration of the supremacy of British over EU law, and its use to repatriate agricultural policy and to restore our historic fishing rights in accordance with international law. Secondly, the requirement that, in order to have any effect in the United Kingdom, all EU law pass through both Houses of Parliament as if it had originated in one or other of them. Thirdly, the requirement that British Ministers adopt the show-stopping Empty Chair Policy until such time as the Council of Ministers meets in public and publishes an Official Report akin to Hansard. Fourthly, the disapplication in the United Kingdom of any ruling of the European Court of Justice or of the European Court of Human Rights (or of the “Supreme Court”) unless confirmed by a resolution of the House of Commons.

And fifthly, the disapplication in the United Kingdom of anything passed by the European Parliament but not by the majority of those MEPs certified as politically acceptable by one or more seat-taking members of the House of Commons, so that we were no longer subject to the legislative will of Stalinists and Trotskyists, neo-Fascists and neo-Nazis, members of Eastern Europe’s kleptomaniac nomenklatura, neoconservatives such as now run France and Germany, people who believe the Provisional Army Council to be the sovereign body throughout Ireland, or Dutch ultra-Calvinists who refuse to have women as candidates. Soon to be joined by Turkish Islamists, secular ultranationalists, and violent Kurdish Marxist separatists.

This calls for a Labour three-line whip in favour, with the public warning that the Whip would be withdrawn from any remaining Blairite ultra who failed to comply. The Liberal Democrats set great store by decentralisation, transparency and democracy, and represent many areas badly affected by the Common Fisheries Policy. The Liberals were staunch free traders who were as opposed to the Soviet Bloc as they were to Far Right regimes in Latin America and Southern Africa. The SDP’s reasons for secession from Labour included both calls for protectionism and the rise of antidemocratic extremism. (Both the Liberal Party and, on a much smaller scale, the SDP still exist, and both are now highly critical of the EU.)

The SDLP takes the Labour Whip, the Alliance Party is allied to the Lib Dems, the Greens are staunchly anti-EU, so is the DUP, and the one other Unionist is close to Labour. The SNP and Plaid Cymru can hardly believe in independence for Scotland, greater autonomy for Wales, yet vote against the return to Westminster of the powers that they wish to transfer thence to Edinburgh or Cardiff; the SNP also has the fishing issue to consider. Even any remaining Conservatives who wanted to certify the European People’s Party as politically acceptable might be brought on board.

Leaving those fabled creatures, backbench Tory Eurosceptics. It is high time that their bluff was called. This is how to do it.

Verity

David Lindsay says it all, and succinctly.

David Price

@ Simon Stephenson

You are so, so, so right.

It amazes me that so few people have noticed that the PIGS countries are keeping the Euro artificially low, for which Germany is amazing grateful as it exports Mercedes Benz cars to China, US and India.

Merkel's problem is keeping her own voters on side without explicitly spelling this (which is bleedin' obvious) out in public; even though that's a central tenet of her economic strategy.

strapworld

A fair warning from ironiestoo.blog

"EUWünderState - EU Citizens' Initiative Referenda to become Registration Vehicles to identify the EU's Doubters.

Any pretence by the EU that its attempts to listen more closely to the voices and interests of the people who have to live and work under the evermore arbitrary, interfering and totalitarian EU, invariably end up as merely extending the powers and snooping ability of this foul and contemptible construct.

Thus it is with citizens' initiatives, the sole supposed item with a whiff of consulting the people which emerged from the Constitutional, EU Reform, Lisbon Treaty.

Happily lack of money, presently seems to be stifling the concept, as reported in this article from EurActiv, but it also reports on how the idea seems to be likely to become hijacked as a means of tracking and recording those EU citizens who might have the temerity to suggest that there is anything at all wrong with our new Orwellian Paradise!

When the money is found (as inevitably almost always seems to be the case in corrupt institutions) think twice before appending your name to anything that might suggest some area of the EUWünderState could be improved!

Vulture

@ndm

You typify the 'We have made our bed and must lie on it' argument. It is significant that in the 35 disastrous years since joining this project the pro-EU arguments have shifted from promising us a cornucopia of benefits and wonders, to dire threats and warnings of what would happen if/when we were to leave.

You say we would be a third rate country if we left. Better that than being a third rate powerless province of a totalitarian empire that glories in its own corruption and post-democracy.

If the EU is the only game in town, its time we invented a new one, since so long as we play by the rules of this particular game we lose. As more and more people are coming to realise.

Simon Stephenson.

Vulture : 9.00am

"You say we would be a third rate country if we left. Better that than being a third rate powerless province of a totalitarian empire that glories in its own corruption and post-democracy."

This is the key discussion that must be had. We've had 35 years of non-discussion of the question as to whether our future is better secured by remaining in the EU than by being outside it. And this discussion needs to be pitched at how the EU actually is, and what it is realistically possible for it to become, and not predicated upon some idealised concept of a political competence and harmony that is unachievable outside Hollywood.

michael

European commission - all they want (by hook or by crook) is our money... And the louder they shout, the more they bully, the more we give em. It's game over.

michael

The EU,
-time to depart,
the more we give
-the louder they fart
the louder they fart
-the bigger they feel
that's ours on the menu
-most every meal

Val Smith

...And I must admit that the shift is in the right direction. Britain has nothing to do with the eurozone troubles. The British ship should sail off...

Y Rhyfelwr Dewr

ndm @ 10.33:

"Iceland - 318,452
Greenland - 56,615

They are not exactly good models on how the UK would fare outside the EU."

Well, if tiddler countries like that can prosper outside the EU, the prospects for one of the top ten largest economies in the world must be pretty good. A large, powerful economy is hardly likely to do worse in the world than one the size of Kettering.

"As to Switzerland, its economy remains parasitic - since it is based on Switzerland's status as a tax haven."

Umm, you don't actually know anything about Switzerland, do you? There's a lot more to it than banking, skiing and chocolate, you know.

"As to Mauritius - that surely smacks of desperation."

No, it smacks of personal experience, actually. I used to live there, and it's one of the most successful countries in the third world, with a very real prospect of joining the developed world in time. In fact, it's difficult to think of something to criticise about it (except that, measuring twenty miles by ten, there's not much to do there).

The point is that, while it has a long way to go, it's a very successful little country, a third-world nation, with no natural resources, remotely located, that is none the less works extremely well, and without any assistance from the EU or similar. Again, if they can do it, I'm quite sure the UK can.

But would you care to respond to any of my other points -- that treaties are protected by the WTO? the trade deficit with the EU? the EU's appalling collapse of global trade share? the anti-competitive expense and bureaucracy of EU regulation? the protectionism that prevents our trading freely with the rest of the world? the fact that the EU is a peon compared to the Commonwealth? and that the Commonwealth's economies are considerably more successful than the EU's?

Ian Walker

The biggest hope is that the political strategists in the Conservative party take note of the recent Eurosceptic mutterings coming from Labour, who as we all know will hitch on to any old cart to get into power.

Once the ungentlemanly agreement that no-one in the Commons is anti-EU gets broken, the floodgates will open.