To see whether the coalition will last, watch how the Lib Dems respond to Dilnot
James Forsyth 12:23pm
The approach that the Liberal Democrats take to social care over the next few weeks and months will be the best guide we have to how they now
view the future of the coalition.
If, in the coming all party talks, they effectively ally with Labour and try to score points off the Tories by suggesting that their coalition partners are ‘too mean’ to fund a solution to the problem then it will be apparent that they have moved fully into distancing mode and are preparing to position themselves as the party who restrained the Tories. This would imply a Lib Dem exit from the coalition sometime well before the 2015 election.
But if they are the ones trying to find a funding model that would be acceptable to both coalition parties then that will suggest that they are sticking to Nick Clegg’s model of trying to portray themselves as a party of government, prepared to take difficult decisions. The logic of this position is that the Lib Dems stay in coalition right up until May 2015 to show that they can ‘do government’.
So far, the signs are that the Lib Dem leadership is trying to take the latter course. But the party at large, whose heart still beats on the left, may well succeed in pushing Clegg – as it did over the NHS reforms – into a more oppositionist position.



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Gawain
July 4th, 2011 12:59pm Report this commentOr, since this is the Liberals we are talking about, they'll try to appear to be in charge of the reform whilst at the same time frustrating the dastardly Tories. Either way they will make any reform ineffective.
Mirtha Tidville
July 4th, 2011 1:11pm Report this commentInteresting scenario, however I dont think many people really care what this lot want anymore. They are increasingly a political irrelevance and with Liebour in turmoil, if they decide to walk away from the Tories the resulting General election will safely see them down the river and out of sight.
Sooner the better in fact
Glen Shakepeare
July 4th, 2011 1:17pm Report this commentWe can only hope for the former option. I think Clegg is finished whatever option he chooses but the party may feel they have some chance at redemption. After the humiliation at the recent polls they really don't have any other choice.
Perry
July 4th, 2011 2:12pm Report this commentBut what does the H2B say? - or more especially, what would Bliar say?
But there again he was careful never to incriminate himself, - crafty loor-ya!
Maggie
July 4th, 2011 2:26pm Report this comment"...the party at large, whose heart still beats on the left..."
Their heart might beat on the left in the north, where they present themselves as an ersatz Labour Party, but not in the south where they present themselves as a morally superior Conservative Party. At the last local elections they lost seats in the south because they weren't supportive enough of the Tories and in the north because they were supportive of the Tories.
The LibDems didn't gain any Opinion Poll advantage by their noisy opposition to the NHS reforms so perhaps they'll support their coalition partners this time.
Rhoda Klapp
July 4th, 2011 4:43pm Report this commentThose who seek examples of the useless pygmies I refer to in the politics vs personality post above need look no further than the LibDems.
TrevorsDen
July 4th, 2011 5:04pm Report this commentMaggie makes a good point. The schism that is the LD party needs to make its mind up.
As long as it is such a wide schism it would never make a serious govt party.
it has lost support from the left, it needs to play for the centre and be hanged if lefties leave. The 'alliance' days are over, labour would never give them an inch; the LDs need to think of what they really have left. As long as they live in fear of people they no longer represent they will never pick up votes from those that might support them.
As it is, having been given a chance in the spotlight they have been shown to be no different to any one else, 3 of their original cabinet ministers have been exposed in scandals (and Alexander has upset the unions, thereby further blighting any chances with labour).
Fergus Pickering
July 4th, 2011 5:27pm Report this commentSo, Glen Shakespeare, the only chance for your apology of a party is to go back to being the poodle of the left and doing their bidding without being offered ANYTHING AT ALL in return. As David Steele. As Paddy Pantsdown. The right leader for you is Simple Simon. No balls. No brain. No sense at all. How pathetic you always were. Clegg made us feel that perhaps we were unfair to you. But we weren't.
alcazar
July 4th, 2011 8:16pm Report this commentIt is really irrelevant what the Lib Dems think. There is genuine cross-party support for a durable long-term solution (a real rarity) - the only real issue is timing, with the Labour benches pushing for an earlier resolution and agreement than the Gov wants. This needs careful and considered planning and I support the Gov's position of not rushing to a quick fix. Lib Dems have no influence on this at all. The recent demolition of a local council Lib Dem base was the onset of their rigor mortis. They also have no money and don't have union coffers to bail them out. They are finished, and dying slowly.
Val Smith
July 5th, 2011 9:51am Report this commentAlas, I suppose that they will break the coalition well before 2015.
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