A by-election poll boost for the Tories
Fraser Nelson 5:34pm
Oh dear. Rather than buy votes, Gordon Brown's £2.7bn unfunded tax cut has doubled the Tory lead in Crewe & Nantwich according to an ICM poll of the constituency for the News of the World tomorrow. Tories on 45% against Labour's 37%, suggesting a Tory majority of about 1,000 - and a 12% swing. The under-35s have turned against Brown the harshest, with 56% of them saying they will vote Tory. Some 24% say the tax bribe has made them more likely to vote against Labour and just 4% say they are more likely to vote Labour as a result. As a general rule, 4% is about the share of a Western country believing that Elvis is still alive. Brown has taxed us so much that a £250 rebate (at most) would never be that welcomed. As I say in my News of the World column tomorrow, if a thief steals your wallet and returns your library card you don't thank him. I expected the result of the tax bribe to be neutral. But to harden hostility to this extent - well, it really takes something. Brown's only consolation is that this £2.7bn was money borrowed from the City. The way things are going, it will be a Cameron government that picks up the bill.
NOTE: ICM sample random 1,000 people on 15 and 16 May.



Previous






Tiberius
May 17th, 2008 6:12pm Report this commentThe scorched earth idea recurs. After 11 years of Labour government, it was always going to be difficult for the Tories to clean up the mess in one term, as I've opined previously, but with two years more for Brown to wreck things in the fashion of this week, the dark warning of the final paragraph in the magazine's leader this week causes something of a shudder.
Nicholas
May 17th, 2008 6:47pm Report this commentThere has been a sea change, but Brown and the Old Labour, New Labour, Leftist, Socialist mutant horde are too deluded or too stupid to see it. I fervently hope it spells the end for socialism.
Paul B
May 17th, 2008 7:02pm Report this commentIt a wonder that any under 35 year old would vote for them (that said its a wonder anyone of any age would vote for him) when you consider that his policies have priced a third of them out the housing market, the second third who can still afford it, cannot obtain a mortgage, and the lastr third who have a property see its value disappearing down the proverbial.. They have all go it to pay huge amounts of money to secure a pension, - and face the prospect of not retiring to 70 all thanks to Beans incompetent policies. If they try to work hard they pay 40pc(51 if you include NI) tax as soon as they blink. If they buy a nice car, they will be taxed to death, thats even before they have put a squirt of fuel in it. Because of the idiots bio green fuel policy-food prices are now surging, the schools their offspring will attend are in many cases useless, (and hes proposing to force the poor blighters to stay onto 18!!).The hospitals are run by the workers for the workers and are filthy and ridden with deadly viruses.
I could go on but it gets too depressing.
The country is truly up to neck in the Brown stuff-literally. I do hope Torys win on Thursday and take the next GE-but by god, its a poisoned chalice they will inherit.
Fraser Nelson
May 17th, 2008 7:21pm Report this commentTiberius, I do the scorched earth theme in the NOTW column tomorrow. I looked up the Maastricht-definition (ie, real debt: £400bn in 1997, £616bn now and £844bn by 2012-13. Already interest payments are larger than the defence bill. Brown is already raiding Cameron's budget.
Perry
May 17th, 2008 7:47pm Report this commentYes Paul B. – a poisoned chalice indeed. And I see no quick or comfortable answer. It is a sad thing that the people who take on this kind of reparative and corrective task take on all the s**t, - psychic (in the sense of mentation), - and material. For this reason, if none other, natural justice calls out that Mz. Prudence and her drear acolytes pay a heavy price and clean up their own mess.
But that looks less likely now. And in any case, what would, or could they do? To borrow from Matthew P. today, warped minds are at work, - not just one as MP thinks. For is there not an element of folie a deux on a grand scale?
I therefore earnestly hope that whoever inherits this mess, with all the expectations and resentments that are bound to follow, has the fortitude, insight, and inspiration to continue.
And a long period of education, in the best sense, is surely desirable. This to clearly, concisely, and consistently reveal the facts behind this sorry story. This to counter the pernicious indoctrination that has pandered to the greed and lazy thinking that has allowed, even fanned, this current situation of indebtedness and dependency.
There is so much to do. So little time. Oh dear.
PT
May 17th, 2008 8:44pm Report this commentExactly Paul B. The future seems quite depressing.
Did you know the new generation of schools funded under the PFI scam will probably last no longer than 25 years?
I should know. I design many of them!
Combined with public pension liabilities, lack of savings, ageing population and already heavily burdened youth, the sh*t is really going to hit the fan in future thanks to this lot.
Perry
May 17th, 2008 9:38pm Report this commentI wish to withdraw my use of the word ‘education’. The word has been so distorted and misused by Noo-Lie-Bore it makes me cringe.
I don’t know what I would replace it with. I’m just trying to make the point that, after years of being fed unremitting tosh, the Great British Public need clear insight about the muddle into which they have been led.
THX1138
May 17th, 2008 10:25pm Report this commentI have just flicked back through 3 pages & everybody in the caption photo's is just so bloody ugly. Is that guy with Dave the candidate for Crewe? He isn't going to win any beauty contests either. Where did all the good looking politicians go? Italy I suppose.
HC
May 18th, 2008 1:39am Report this commentCan anyone explain Gordon Brown's claim on the Today programme that he has reduced debt from something like 44% to 38%? Surely this is another Brownie? Just wondering how he gets away with saying that...
chris
May 18th, 2008 3:18am Report this commentHow did Humphries let Brown get away with saying that Britain was a low debt naton the other day: this beggers belief!
Kevyn Bodman
May 18th, 2008 4:06am Report this commentIf you want good looking politicians why don't you draft some TV autocuties?
They are chosen for their ability to look pretty and read at the same time.
I would rather have politicians who are clear thinkers, and clear speakers/writers who can communicate what they think.
I want them both honest and diplomatic and I want them to more or less share my attitudes and biases.
I want them radical, because tinkering is going to be insufficient, and I want them courageous because things get difficult.
Absence of personal ambition would be nice, but unrealistic.
And they need some ability to get people to work for them.And the sense to know that they can't do it all, can't be experts in every area so will spread the tasks wisely.
Although I think she's wrong on a couple of issues she is right on many, and satisfies all the criteria of clear thinking,communication and courage:
draft Melanie Phillips.
Fergus Pickering
May 18th, 2008 7:34am Report this commentSchools are not for education. Schools are for teaching you useful things you need to know. And f you don't like school, and plenty of people don't, then leave the place and get a job and spend the money. You don't have to be educated. It doesn't matter. Education os one of our awful religions. Health is another. Get a proper religion if you must have one. Christianity is very serviceable, subtle and sophisticated and it's been around a long time.
Kevyn Bodman
May 18th, 2008 8:49am Report this commentFergus Pickering:
Srong disagreement this sunny Sunday morning.
Education is the single most important thing for improving quality of life.
The pleasure of knowing things, the pleasure of finding things out, the pleasure of making the effort to discover and understand things.
And the understanding that there are known unknowns and unknown unknowns. (Rumsfeld was unjustly mocked for that.)
And the ability to think for oneself.
Irrespective of whether or not education increases earning power it's invaluable for the individual.
It's essential for society too.
Water
May 18th, 2008 9:48am Report this comment“just 4% say they are … likely to vote Labour as a result. As a general rule, 4% is about the share of a Western country believing that Elvis is still alive” just what I needed to hear on a Sunday morning.
THX1138
May 18th, 2008 10:19am Report this commentKevyn- Your right of course I was just making a light hearted observation sorry won't happen again- Back to putting the boot in. "Mad Mel" running the country your having a laugh too much god, intelligent design, MMR, WMD, AGW, BBC, Israel, ranting & banning things for the average Brit I think.
You had your go with a loon right wing President in the US and look how that turned out not very pretty the lowest poll ratings in history of the office. The loon right has lost all the arguments or if it hasn't lost the arguments it hasn't got any candidates which amounts to the same thing. Just remind yourselves that the Candidates for the Tories & Republicans are just right of centre who believe in gay & minority right's, the state, environmental protection & worst of all for you lot the truth that man made climate change is a fact.
You know I could vote for either of them & that should terrify most of you on this board. Looks like my side won!!!!
Tiberius
May 18th, 2008 12:56pm Report this commentThe obvious consequence, Fraser, being how will Cameron deal with the economic situation as he seeks a likely second term in 2014/5?
Charlie T
May 18th, 2008 2:47pm Report this commentI guess George Lucas`s numberplate is feeling nostalgic for the days when the beautiful people misruled us Beckett, Prescott et al
Incidentally did anyone read the review of William Shatners autobiography in today's ST? Very funny observation about chaps who use exclamation marks in their writtings . Gets the numberplate person spot on.
Ian C
May 18th, 2008 3:34pm Report this commentFraser - you need to add the off-balance sheet funding (PFI etc)and present value of future state subsidies to e.g. the railways (much more than 12 years ago) in order to get a meaningful comparison for debt in 1997. The complexity is what makes it easy for him to spin the figures he does. You need an analyst of some standing for this. But if I were the Tory leadership I would be getting this job done now in time for an unexpected election. (It is not unrealistic to expect that after Thursday the dawning will start in Labour ranks that they will be better off with a sooner rather than a later election. If Broon bombs at the Conference in September - v. likely - that will be the trigger and by next Spring the reality could become compeling for them).
Fraser Nelson
May 18th, 2008 6:25pm Report this commentIan C, I hear what you say but believe the Maastricht-definition debt is a pretty linear series. I agree that it's time to get a proper analyst to look at this and project debt repayments until 2013 to see what Brown has really done to the economy. Or we could just get CoffeeHousers to do a we-think version..
John
May 18th, 2008 7:07pm Report this comment- You don't have to be educated. It doesn't matter. Education os one of our awful religions
What utter tosh. Education makes life worth living, AND it helps you get a good job.
John
May 18th, 2008 7:09pm Report this comment- The loon right has lost all the arguments
Yes, we should expect this nonsense from Mr Numberplate. It's the loonie left that's lost the argument, it's the loonie left that's destroyed this country. But you can'r expect numberplates to understand MP.
John
May 18th, 2008 7:11pm Report this commentAnd education helps you understand the difference between your and you're, a fact that's bypassed some of the great brains on this blog.
THX1138
May 18th, 2008 11:03pm Report this commentJohn- Do you think the loon right has won the arguments then? Where are the candidates? Where are the governments? I'm not a member of the left I will probably vote Tory next time I like Dave & the new Tories I'm just the kind of person they need to win round I'm just surprised that any of you lot do.
Charlie T- Well done on getting the the THX1138 reference so if you know the film that THX1138 is a defender of liberty & escapes from a tyrannical fascist state rather appropriate I thought . As for your Capt Kirk observation if going you are going to insult me just get on with no need to hide behind cryptic references. You know what they say about chaps who can't say what they mean? You can't but I can and the word Is coward.
Fergus Pickering
May 19th, 2008 8:18am Report this commentKevyn, I have not made myself clear. I am all for knowing things. And schools are sort of OK too. It's Education with a capital E I don't like. The thing Blair repeated three times. Education means our being moulded by the State into just what the bastards want It is described by Aldous Huxley in Brave New World. Education means Citizenship classes. Education means thinking what you are supposed to think. I came across it in my Edinburgh school bloody years ago when I poked fun at Scottish Nationalism, something you were NOT ALLOWED TO DO, especially if you ere English. Education is trapping every poor child in some building ruled by teachers for AS LONG AS POSSIBLE until the poor child has a clutch of certificates and has given up THINKING for ever.My hero, in this regard, is Socrates sitting under a tree and underminin everything you thought you knew - anti-education if you get my drift. Unwillingly to school said Shakespeare. Good man, Shakespeare.
THX1138
May 19th, 2008 11:34am Report this commentJohn & Charlie- Sorry I went over the top. I hate the way we pour vitriol on each other just because we have different political views at least we are all engaged in the process unlike 90% of the UK.
I bet if we sat down in a real coffee house over a skinny cappuccino we would find that we agreed more than we disagreed about the state of the country and what needs to be done.
Anyway what I have noticed on this blog is that personal abuse always comes when you make a good point so the man gets played not the ball. John my English it's not perfect & I was educated under a Tory government, does some bad grammar not entitle me to an opinion ?
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