America's debt crisis fuels Obama's political crisis
Peter Hoskin 10:24am
Momentousness without momentum. That's what we're getting from America at the moment, as
this all-crucial debt deal continues to stutter and stall. The main development in Washington yesterday was John Boehner securing enough Republican votes to pass his bill in the House of
Representatives — only for it to be summarily tabled by Democrats in the Senate. What will
follow over the weekend is yet more frantic negotiation between the Democrats and Republicans in Congress, as each tries to make their various plans more acceptable to the other, while also keeping
their own die-hards on side. Meanwhile, the clock keeps on ticking down towards default: three days, 13 hours, 35 minutes...
The economic consequences of an American default are something that we considered yesterday (the quick version: global recession). But it's worth emphasising that there are likely to be severe consequences even if Washington's lawmakers manage to scrape together a deal in the next few days. The fear is that the deal will be so rushed, with so many unlikelihoods stitched into its fabric, that the US credit rating will be downgraded anyway, from AAA to AA. It would be yet another shock to the international system, coming on top of the protracted collapse of the Eurozone.
And it all adds to the poisonous stew at the end of Barack Obama's spoon. There are some who might have hoped to tar the Republicans with recent events, but it's not proving quite as simple as that. The President's ratings are plummeting on the back of this crisis, and in response to economic concerns more generally. The Rasmussen Approval Index has 50 per cent of people saying that he is doing a poor job on the economy. Gallup have him at his lowest ever approval rating. And here is perhaps the most concerning polling of all for Obama's supporters, from Pew:
Little wonder why the good folk of Political Betting are asking starkly: Is now the time to bet against Obama? The President is looking more vulnerable than he ever has done. An efficient and convincing Republican candidate might cause all sorts of electoral mayhem.
P.S. Here's The West Wing's take on the debt ceiling, default and all that:



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Bill Rees
July 30th, 2011 10:42am Report this commentThe Republicans in the House have agreed to increase the debt ceiling from $14.3 trillion to $15.2 trillion, but this has been rejected by the Democratic-controlled Senate.
I would think that the ball is therefore now firmly in the court of the Democrats and the President, who simply can't go on spending money as if there's no tomorrow.
Rhoda Klapp
July 30th, 2011 10:50am Report this commentEven if the (arbitrary) deadline is reached, there are many ways around actual default. This is all just kabuki. A compromise will be reached, at the last minute. Doesn't the hero always disarm the bomb with a second (or seven) to go, never half an hour?
Bill Kristol-Balls
July 30th, 2011 10:58am Report this commentTrouble with these polls is there's no such thing as a generic Republican candidate in the 2012 field.
roger slade
July 30th, 2011 11:14am Report this commentThis is what happens when you have a president who is desperate to serve a second term rather than have the interests of his own country at heart. Reminds one of Tony Blair with his spin and lies who was equally without merit.
Ricky
July 30th, 2011 11:24am Report this commentA simple fact. Under the watch of the hapless Obamastan the US Treasury has less in reserve than Apple Corp. Apple just posted cash reserves of $76.4 billion compared to US Treasury Reserves of $73.7 billion.
Obamastan's paymasters - your work is done.
Purpleline
July 30th, 2011 11:30am Report this commentThis is a political argument the simple fact is the 'Debt Ceiling' is a self imposed credit limit that no longer makes sense, it should be abolished and replaced with a mechanism linking growth to spending & the economic cycle.No more spending at the top of the cycle Mr. Brown/Balls/Millybandwagon.
The real nuclear option for Obama, and would probably lead to his assassination is to get to grips with the Military expenditure budget.
The UK & US have entered Afghanistan & Iraq to rid terrorists of a safe haven & give freedom to the people and both have paid a heavy price, this price should not be borne by the UK/US alone, as the World benefits.
Therefore, I propose a UN rule that states all countries must contribute, if not in weapons and manpower then with money, peacekeepers. There should be no free lunch for China, India Russia & Brazil.
They should contribute if we are to have a global economy then they must pay for the benefit and a free Iraq should pay by granting Oil rights to the US/UK up to 3 trillion dollars.
The same with Libya, to create a new friendly prosperous state the new recognised rebels need to pay for our military intervention. The move this week by Hague was really more important than people have realised, as a government in waiting and once full support from the majority of nations is received at the UK that new authority can ask Nato to bring in ground troops to end the impasse quickly.
Finally the UK government must come clean now about Global Warming, that is its not a science based certainty and the expendiutre will cause the West to be bankrupted, they must state that it was supported because they did not want Russia gaining fantastic wealth and transfer of wealth from the West to the Middle East.
To save the West AMerica along with the UK must now eject the Saudi Royal families, the Qatari's and ensure Crude prices come back under our control.
If that means taking Iran and Venezuela out so be it. Control of Oil and VAT being introduced in the US then the West and US will be great again.
Hopelessly Romantic but Heartless Perry
July 30th, 2011 12:08pm Report this commentSurely a few Obama-esque sound bites and gesticulations would do the trick?
People fall for that, as they do/did for the H2B and his Hero.
Augustus
July 30th, 2011 1:34pm Report this commentIt should be noted that the debt ceiling is not the problem. Raising it solves the duplicity of US Treasury behaviour but doesn’t resolve the fact that they are caught in a debt death spiral that will result in the collapse of the dollar, producing hyperinflation and the likely collapse of the government. US Congress must accomplish three things to put the United States on a path to financial responsibility: (1) cut current spending, (2) restrict future spending, and (3) fix the budget process. I.e. Congress should proceed with an orderly change of course in federal spending.
TomTom
July 30th, 2011 1:38pm Report this comment"'Debt Ceiling' is a self imposed credit limit that no longer makes sense, it should be abolished and replaced with a mechanism linking growth to spending & the economic cycle"
Self-important Twaddle. The US has no prospect of ever repaying its borrowings and servicing the debt is the immediate problem without Obama creating more Spending entitlements in election year.
It would be nice if Purpleline focused on European military spending now that the Turkish Military Command has resigned with Turkish units poised to invade Syria.
Is Europe ready to pay for more Defence and less Welfare ? So far it has had a free ride on US deficits yet failed to balance its own books inside Europe. Is Europe ready to cut Welfare States down to affordable levels so Not Working results in hunger and real poverty sufficient to discourage Affluent Indolence ?
TomTom
July 30th, 2011 1:52pm Report this commentMaybe Obama should rub his eyes at the disaster the EU is unleashing in Turkey. Erdogan has 25% senior Officer Corps in jail including 42 Generals arrested without charge by Special Prosecutors using Secret Witnesses and Special Police Units loyal to Erdogan.
He has the press under control and the opposition silenced. Just where is Erdogan dragging Turkey with the EU as his stooge to undo Turkey's swecular constitution and Ataturk's legacy ?
That is a big bill for Europe to pay when NATO implodes - the US will walk away and leave the Euros to talk with Putin about dealing with Turkey
Hopelessly Romantic but Heartless Perry (addendum to above)
July 30th, 2011 2:29pm Report this commentPlease add between ‘Obama-esque’ and ‘sound bites’ the word ‘platitudinous’
Baron
July 30th, 2011 3:00pm Report this commentTomTom has the right measure of it, both on the budget, the overlap with Europe as well as on the Turkish delight event.
the resignation of the top brass of the Army, Navy, the Air Force in Turkey was the top item on Aljazeera yesterday, it didn’t register on the BBC’s radar at all, instead the BBC’s leading news stories on my top google page still are: top Lybia rebel ‘shot by Islamist militia’ (the story’s broke two days ago), HMRC sorry for ‘poor performance’, guests arrive for Zara’s wedding.
comforting to see the BBC's up to speed with objective reporting of news, someone should also tell Charles Moore who blamed recently the Sun, the NoW for (I quote) “going out of the way in recent years to give their readers far too little information to form political judgments”. But then, he doesn't pay his TV license, can get away with it, he cannot compare.
Ricky
July 30th, 2011 5:49pm Report this commentBaron
From across the Pond we no longer trust your BBC. I understand their news is always days behind because political commissars have to check the content carefully before it goes out to the proles.
I note they have been running a series on the Life of Mohammad. Any chance of one on Christ? Or Buddha? Or Moses? Nope. It took one of your independents to actually portray Jews outside of the Holocaust (the BBCs favourite topic about Jews).
They were late in covering the Arab Spring because there were no BBC journalists there. They are all domiciled in the pleasant bars, hotels and restaurants of Israel where they report on every little incident, including man bites dog. Like all ungrateful guests, they trash Israel hourly.
You are crazy people for paying for this socialist hate fest.
ndm
July 30th, 2011 6:24pm Report this commentObama should have said he would invoke his 14th Amendment right as President to ensure that "the validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized by law, including debts incurred for payment of pensions and bounties for services in suppressing insurrection or rebellion, shall not be questioned." We are witnessing a rebellion by an increasingly Stalinist minority party - and that is precisely what this clause in the constitution was intended to prevent.
As to the election - that is always going to be about JOBS,
London Calling
July 30th, 2011 6:38pm Report this commentRicky
From across the Pond I no longer trust your version of democracy, politics or insulated thinking. Cross over further ponds and you will discover Japanese Banks think of the USA as donkeys fighting elephants throwing up dust clouds that will engulf us all.
Time to know thyself me thinks_______?
“Over seven decades, the consequences of prolonged, unquestioning British support for whatever Washington does have often been disastrous.
Since 2001, we have been dragged into the front line of a war on terror which has served only as a recruiting sergeant for jihadists from all parts of Islam. ‘There are few countries more given to the glorification of violence,’ Andrew Alexander concludes.
‘The American folk hero is the swaggering gunman. Let loose in the wider world, he is a threat to peace. It is our duty to warn him off this course, not trail along in his wake.’
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2020000/Is-America-greatest-threat-world-peace--Forget-Russia-Forget-Iran--In-brilliantly-provocative-new-book-Mails-legendary-columnist-Andrew-Alexander-poses-extraordinary-question.html#ixzz1Tbs7KmBw
Fairy Liquid
July 30th, 2011 6:39pm Report this commentAnagram for "President Barack Hussein Obama":
A Democrat speaks inane rubbish
ndm
July 30th, 2011 6:58pm Report this commentRicky writes:
-- From across the Pond we no longer trust your BBC. I understand their news is always days behind because political commissars have to check the content carefully before it goes out to the proles.
I suspect what Ricky really means is that those of us who get our news from the Fox Propaganda channel have absolutely no idea of what's going on. It's not a long skip from the News of the Screws to getting screwed by Fox News.
steveal
July 30th, 2011 9:23pm Report this comment"he US credit rating will be downgraded anyway, from AAA to AA. It would be yet another shock to the international system..."
You have a strange definition of 'shock'.
It's been trailed for WEEKS (and it's boring).
Robert of Ottawa
July 30th, 2011 11:30pm Report this commentOnce again I am obliged to make a correction. The US of A federal government will not go "into default" on debts on August 2nd if the debt limit is not raised.
Only when payments become due that this organisation cannot meet, will they be in default. They can juggle money, even print it (as they have been doing in industrial quantities) to meet that particular obligation.
The "default" scare is an Obama tactic to get higher taxes.
TomTom
July 31st, 2011 11:37am Report this comment"Obama should have said he would invoke his 14th Amendment right as President to ensure that "the validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized by law, including debts incurred for payment of pensions and bounties for services in suppressing insurrection or rebellion, shall not be questioned."
GREAT ! Let him set that against Article 1 Section 8 of the US Constitution
Freddie The Capitalist
July 31st, 2011 2:08pm Report this commentOn the face of it the Americans have reached their self-imposed borrowing limits so need to find a way of paying for their increased defecit or increasing their overdraft limit. Now, when you own the world's largest piggy bank you would normally think you could easily decide that it's costing too much so you'll pull in the spending and maybe borrow some more to cover the short term before your cuts reduce the overdraft. However, it's not so easy when politicians own the keys to the bank. Not because they want to make sure the math of reducing the overdraft stacks up, more because they want to use this as a way of ensuring they can win the election in the next year or so. The Republicans want to make sure the American public hasn't forgotten about this come the next election so will only offer a solution that brings the world to crisis point again before the next election and they can point the finger at the Democrats. Interesting, given the Republicans racked up the debt in the first place by invading everywhere that has oil and cutting taxes at the same time. I would probably sit on the Republican fence on most arguments, but this time enough is enough.
So good luck to Obama. Sort'em out fella!
http://t0startagain.blogspot.com/
Richard of Moscow
July 31st, 2011 4:00pm Report this commentRicky:
we no longer trust your BBC. ..
I note they have been running a series on the Life of Mohammad. Any chance of one on Christ? Or Buddha? Or Moses? Nope.
------
I'm told the BBC did, in fact, broadcast a life of Jesus - it was narrated by the same Moslem currently chronicling the life of Muhammed, and (I shit thee not) the extras for the scenes in first-century Palestine were speaking Arabic.
lauriemacdonellsanchez
July 31st, 2011 4:01pm Report this commentThe article's title is all wrong-Obama himself precipitated the debt crisis because the 1st task in a Marxist takeover is to ruin the economy. He is NOT inept, he's doing exactly what he set out to do in effecting his "CHANGE" agenda. The only political crisis he worries about is displeasing his behind-the-scenes task masters or being outed before he finishes the job. What Obama didn't expect was not continuing to get the usual free pass from his fellow travelers in the completely compromised US mainstream media, with the exception of gadfly Fox News. But Fox News's Ailes has managed to prevail despite the dirty tactics & billions of the Obama-Soros machine. The uncomfortable scrutiny & resultant backlash by American voters in 2010 necessitated the fallback tactic of the sudden florescence of the Murdoch-World News hacking-blagging scandal in the UK. The idea was to drown out the voice of the US's Fox News in the backwash, aided & abetted by Holder's totally compromised US Justice Dept. Incredibly, Fox News has become one of the last bastions of truth in America's desperate struggle to survive. Strangely, this may be the moment in history that will define Mr. Murdoch as a champion of serious investigative journalism & elevate him above the tabloid fray.
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