Rick Perry soars in the polls, but for how long?
Jonathan Jones 11:54am
His presidential campaign is just a fortnight old, and already Rick Perry is soaring in
the polls. The three major national surveys conducted since his announcement all give Perry
double-digit leads over previous frontrunner Mitt Romney. He has also, importantly, taken the lead in Iowa and is now
odds on to win both there and in South
Carolina come February.
This is certainly an encouraging position for a new candidate, but history suggests that Perry supporters should temper their optimism with a heavy dose of caution. Until the autumn of 2007, Rudy Giuliani led the Republican field by a similar margin to the one Perry has now. And Hillary Clinton's lead over Obama was even more commanding. Neither went on to win their party's nomination. But a race with a more striking resemblance to the one going on now is that for the 2004 Democratic nomination.
In the summer of 2003, the primaries looked like a close four-way fight between former Vermont Governor Howard Dean, Congressman Dick Gephardt and Senators Joe Lieberman and John Kerry. Lieberman topped the polls in the first half of 2003, but Dean proved a better fundraiser and established himself as the frontrunner by the end of the summer. Then, on 17 September, retired General Wesley Clark declared his candidacy, and immediately leapt to the top of the polls - in very much the same way as Rick Perry has in the last two weeks. Here is how the polls for the 2012 Republican contest looks now:
And here, for comparison, is Gallup's poll of the 2004 Democratic primary in the days following Clark's announcement:
And the result in 2004? Clark won just a single primary - Oklahoma's - and dropped out of the race before Super Tuesday. Dean, Lieberman and Gephardt all fell away and Kerry clinched the nomination well ahead of John Edwards.
None of this is to say that the same fate awaits Rick Perry. After all, there are many important differences between his campaign and Clark's. Whereas Clark suffered from never having run for anything before (and struggled with the media as a result), Perry is an experienced campaigner, having thrice been elected to the Texas statehouse, twice as Agriculture Commissioner, once as Lt Governor and thrice as Governor. Just last year, he easily withstood a strong primary challenge from Senator Kay Bailey Hutchinson. In addition, Clark chose to skip the Iowa caucuses, which proved to be a major error (Clark himself said that "everything would have been different" if he had competed there). Rick Perry will not make that mistake.
But it is possible that Perry's surge will fizzle out, as Clark's did in 2003 and Michele Bachmann's has in recent weeks. So if Perry proves to be this year's Clark, and Romney's a Dean or Lieberman or Clinton or Giuliani, one question arises: who will be the Kerry, the Obama or the McCain?
Previous
Santorum
August 27th, 2011 12:14pm Report this commentDepressing that the only sane candidate is on 2%. What the hell is happening in the US?
Right On
August 27th, 2011 12:38pm Report this commentPerry's not comparable with Clark, Giuliani or Clinton for a variety of reasons (many of which you've mentioned).
The major questions for him don't appears to be his ability on the trail or fundraising, the question is whether he can withstand the firestorm that he's facing from Democrats and from establishment Republicans - who will likely now unite behind Romney.
Unless Chris Christie gets in, or Perry makes a major mistake the nomination is his to lose.
Frank P
August 27th, 2011 12:38pm Report this comment"What the hell is happening in the US?"
The same as everywhere else. The hoi polloi is the shape of the last ass that sat on 'em.
Biggestaspidistra
August 27th, 2011 1:32pm Report this commentCalm down, no one's voted yet.
Augustus
August 27th, 2011 2:14pm Report this commentWho's crashing, and who isn't? I hope Bachmann can pull out of the nose dive, But
she is going to have to go into overdrive to even pull even with Perry.
I S
August 27th, 2011 3:02pm Report this commentInstead of just reporting the football results, I would prefer some informed analysis of the figures. For example, why have Bachmann's figures tumbled in just a few weeks?
Verity
August 27th, 2011 3:27pm Report this commentHe's a three-time Governor of Texas (and once elected Lieutenant Governor). The people of Texas clearly think he is competent to run a government.
He will not say whether he carries his gun while campaigning. I like that.
Charles
August 27th, 2011 4:16pm Report this commentI happened to spend some time in Texas (with Democrats!) last week.
They are worried that Perry will win. The comment they made was that he could probably raise "$500m easily" from Texas alone
porkbelly
August 27th, 2011 11:24pm Report this commentPerry is a formidable campaigner and anyone who can say they have never lost a state-wide election in Texas has probably got the grit to take on the brittle, petulant current occupant of the White House and win.
But while one cannot doubt his ability to campaign, and he has a powerful folksy appeal that will attract a lot of support outside the rarefied salons of Washington and New York, questions are being raised by Republicans about whether he truly understands the issues America faces and what he plans to do about them. They fear he is another professional politician who is interested more in winning for its own sake than in pursuing a deeply-held personal philosophy (er, hello Dave?).
On this front Romney will give him a serious fight, for even though he seems like (and probably is) a well-coiffed corporate robot he has prepared meticulously and will pick Perry apart in the debates if Perry doesn't do his homework or just relies on his cadre of Texas good ol' boys for advice.
As far as the rest - Bachmann, Huntsman, Palin (if she gets in), they are also-rans at this point. The race is coming down to Perry and Romney.
Frederick de Fossard
August 28th, 2011 12:32am Report this commentStill putting my faith in Huntsman.
Santorum
August 28th, 2011 9:32am Report this commentAre his creationist views honestly held or base pandering I wonder? Either way, they demonstrate he isn't fit for office.
Right On
August 28th, 2011 12:19pm Report this comment@ porkbelly
I'd be surprised to see Romney make a major impact against Perry in the debates. Most people thought the same about KBH in the Gubernatorial primary but Perry more than held his own.
I S
August 28th, 2011 1:06pm Report this commentVerity - 'he will not say whether he carries a gun..I like this.'
Given your oft-stated gun fetish, may I suggest Phil Spector as his running mate?
I S
August 28th, 2011 1:10pm Report this commentSantorum - Thanks for exposing his nutjob creationist views. Instead of mundanely interpreting dreary X Factor popularity polls, could the Spectator please attempt to enlighten us similarly about the various candidates?
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