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Thursday, 22nd May 2008

Are the Tories in landslide mode?

Peter Hoskin 11:03am

We've just uploaded the content from the latest magazine on to the website, and I'd suggest you read Fraser's politics column ahead of the results from Crewe and Nantwich tonight.  In it, Fraser writes of how the Tories are unofficially shifting to a "landslide strategy".  They now regard a whole host of marginal seats as "in the bag", so party resources, cash and effort are being diverted to those seats which were considered "unwinnable" before Cameron took charge.  Crewe's something of a pilot for this approach, so the result is of extreme importance to Cameron & Co.  What do CoffeeHousers make of the strategy?  Is it a masterstroke?  Or a risk too far?  As always, have your say in the comments section.

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Comments

Patrick, London

May 22nd, 2008 11:52am

It makes sense. The most marginal seats will surely swing enough (unless Labour get returned with a presposterous new landlside) and allocating resources there will add nothing. Resources should go to wherever the new battle ground now lies. That probably means the seats in the 60 to 120 most marginal range. This sounds like simple good management to me.

Tiberius

May 22nd, 2008 11:58am

We do appear to be passed the tipping point where New Labour supporters realize that the cake Blair said you could have and eat is full of air (somewhat hot) and not jam. So face-to-face engagement with voters in the marginals is a good strategy because Cameron and Co have a message and a delivery which the voters can at least find refreshing compared to the tractor production figures. As Donald Rumsfeld found out too late, there is no substitute for boots on the ground. Masterstroke? - well it's not rocket science. Risky? - surely we're past the stage when voters are twice as unlikely to vote Tory if one dares to walk up their garden path. We saw the effects in the NoW poll last autumn of this approach, and it scared Brown off calling an election. Yet voters who do not receive the attention of those in the marginals must not be taken for granted. But with Tory grassroot support seemingly highly mobilized, and Lord Ashcroft providing the finance, there should be adequate resources to attend to everyone come the GE.

Michael St George

May 22nd, 2008 12:08pm

At the moment, definitely a risk too far. It would be excessively hubristic to interpret the local election results and the (hopefully) great result at C&N as a voters' positive committment to the Cameroon project, rather than just the (entirely justified) desire to give the Comrade Chairman McBroon a bloody nose.

Dave needs to articulate more than he has done so far why you should vote for the Tories, rather than against Grasping Gordon. The speech a couple of dyas ago was a welcome development, but there's a way to go yet to differentiate the proposition on offer from what we have now.

The electorate will punish an arrogance which assumes (or can be portrayed as assuming - remember NuLab will stoop to anything) that all we have to do is turn up.

The prize within grasp is huge - not only for Conservatives, but more importantly for our country. Not yet the right time to take it as a given.

Travis Bickle

May 22nd, 2008 12:42pm

Whilst I would very much welcome a Conservative Government I rather hope that it is not by the sort of landslide that allowed Blair's government to bypass proper parliamentary scrutiny and procedure.

And I agree with Michael St George that the last thing the party should appear now is over confident and arrogant.

Danvers Baillieu

May 22nd, 2008 1:07pm

From a campaigning point of view it is probably a huge mistake. I was an Conservative student activist in Bristol West in 1997, where the party was so complacent, that the sitting candidate, William Waldegrave, was sent around the country to campaign for other candidates - including those with safe seats, such as John Bercow. There seemed to be no overall strategy as to where the activists should campaign - it was down to what they wanted to do, or where we had good council candidates. Some days I was in Bristol West, others I was off with Ed Vaizey in the unwinnable Bristol East.

My Labour counterparts on the other hand were heavily engaged in a target seat campaign and were being shipped out of Bristol every day to Swindon and other nearby target seats.

About a week or two before the election, I realised something was up as all my Labour friends were suddenly pulled back to campaign in Bristol West for the Labour candidate.

A landslide campaign is all well and good if it fits with what the opposition are doing. Otherwise, you risk the scenario where Labour are protecting marginals and the Tories don't put enough into them and fail to win the "landslide" targets.

Tina

May 22nd, 2008 1:38pm

A risk too far, never take any seat for granted. It is about having a highly effective get out the vote operation and fighting to the very very end for every last vote.

Mike, Brighton

May 22nd, 2008 2:32pm

I kinda agree with Travis.
If the Tories get a landslide, I hope Cameron takes the opportunity to re-shape society with the massive mandate and goodwill he would have.
Unlike Blair who similarly had a massive mandate and goodwill in '97 but frankly did nothing other than worry about scaring the horses and putting the next election in jeopardy for Labour.

I think the landslide strategy is a risk. We will have to fight for every seat and every vote. Labour to their credit will not give up like we did in '97

narcissa

May 22nd, 2008 4:05pm

Even in an "unwinnable" seat I think we owe it to fellow conservatives to show our faces, if only to reassure them that they are not alone.

Huw Thornton

May 22nd, 2008 4:08pm

I agree that it's a risky move at present. There should be a longer period of an 18-20% lead before the marginals that are the present target can be taken for granted. If the election strategy is based on the assumption that Labour cannot revive, it could prove costly.

David Lindsay

May 22nd, 2008 4:57pm

Oh, get a grip!

They might win, but it would make absolutely no political difference if they did. In any case, there are two years to go yet. And that's before even mentioning the constituency map. Landslide, indeed!

Why do you care which of these identical parties wins a General Election? Why?

Frank Pulley

May 22nd, 2008 8:47pm

Remember Neil Kinnock and his "Yeah Alright! (repeated)" accompanied by a punch into the air. It did for him. Any sort of gloating by prospective governments before the votes are in is ill advised. Even in C & N tonight. Wait and see and even if the Conservatives win, a bit of decorum is advisable. There are still two years of ups and down in front of us.

Alex

May 22nd, 2008 9:18pm

David Lindsay - your devils advocate comments have worn a little thin.

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