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Friday, 23rd May 2008

If this swing was replicated nationwide at the next election, Labour would be down to 100 MPs

James Forsyth 3:06am

John Curtice has just crunched the numbers for the BBC and found that if this swing happened across the country at the next election, there would be 497 Tory MPs and only 100 Labour ones. Clearly, this isn't going to happen. But it will concentrate the minds of Labour backbenchers.

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Frank

May 23rd, 2008 8:28am Report this comment

That would be 100 too many!

salieri

May 23rd, 2008 8:34am Report this comment

WERE

John R

May 23rd, 2008 8:42am Report this comment

It won't happen, but Labour down to about 120 to 130 MPs is possible and I think quite likely.

Aidan

May 23rd, 2008 9:36am Report this comment

I remember David Alton winning the Liverpool Edge Hill by-election for the Liberals (as they then were) by a landslide in the 70s. The swing was so massive that, if repeated at a general election, the Liberals would have won almost every seat in Great Britain, and the Ulster Unionists would have been the Opposition.

Nicholas

May 23rd, 2008 10:21am Report this comment

I long to see a parliament with no Labour MPs in it.

John

May 23rd, 2008 10:48am Report this comment

Err, yes, Aidan, but that's hardly comparing like with like. The Libs were not the second largest party, and they had not had a PM in several generations, and they had not just inflicting a catastrophic local election defeat on the government, and they had not just won the London mayoralty.

Tiberius

May 23rd, 2008 10:51am Report this comment

Simon Hughes aired that view quite convincingly on QT last night, Nicholas. Imagine a country with a 100 less hand-wringers on the back benches.

Edward Atkin

May 23rd, 2008 11:06am Report this comment

And how many of those left would represent English consituencies ?

Chingford Man

May 23rd, 2008 2:06pm Report this comment

If the turn-out was 58pc, and the Tories won just under 50pc of that, by my poor maths that means that the Tories won the support of just 29pc of the electorate, after a high profile campaign and the spectacle of an imploding Labour Party. Am I the only person who thinks that the Tory result was not quite as fantastic as it is being painted?

PD Oxford

May 23rd, 2008 3:18pm Report this comment

An excellent entry that sums up Labour's stupidity is here at labourhome. Well worth a read:

http://www.labourhome.org/comments/2008/5/23/12754/6149/23#23

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