Crewe goes bright blue, will Labour now dump Brown?
James Forsyth 3:20am
If on April 29th, when Labour announced the date of the Crewe and Nantwich by-election, you had told people that the Tories would win the seat by 7,860 votes you would have been laughed out of town. This result shows just how much in politics has changed in the last few weeks. The Tories have passed every test they have been presented with, Labour has failed every one. The Tories took the London Mayoralty, made huge gains in the local elections and have now triumphed in this by-election with a 17.6 percent swing.
A few weeks ago, the idea that Gordon Brown would be challenged for the Labour leadership would have sounded as, if not more, absurd as the idea that the Tories would win Crewe and Nantwich with a majority of nearly 8,000. But now it seems possible if not yet probable. The number of Labour MPs who now look almost certain to lose their seat is more than the number needed to trigger a leadership contest.
Labour is now in freefall; it is hard to remember the last good week for the government and the public seem to have taken against Brown with a passion. Brown was hidden in this contest—his image was on everyone but Labour’s leaflets. That, obviously, could not be done in a general.
What will probably save Brown is a combination of the fact that there is no obvious successor and that Labour would look absurd changing leaders again. One also wonders how the public would react to another change in Prime Minister without a general election.
Brown has been Prime Minister for less than a year, but he already looks like he is done. He is out of ideas and facing an electorate who are no longer prepared to give him the benefit of the doubt. The failure of Labour’s negative campaign in Crewe and Nantwich also shows that anti-Tory feeling can no longer be relied upon to save Labour.
This result is a fantastic one for the Conservatives, they won by 19 points, and a diabolical one for Labour. If tonight’s swing was replicated across the country, Labour would be down to 100 seats. That thought will prey on the mind of every Labour MP over the Whitsun Recess. The question is what will they do about it once they return to Westminster.
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Comments
Frank Pulley
May 23rd, 2008 3:45amJohn McDonnell blasted off tonight. Wonder if he will lead a mutiny. Let's hope not and that they will leave Captain 'Queeg' Brown at the helm until he runs HMS NuLab aground; he's already clipped a couple of rock clusters.
Dave B
May 23rd, 2008 4:15amAny chance of the Lisbon Treaty going to a referendum?
Fergus Pickering
May 23rd, 2008 4:58amBringing down a government is SUCH fun. Look at the satue of the Lader. We can pull it down and trample it in the dust. Of course there comes the crunch when we're elected and actually have to do something.Boris gves me hope though. 'Do you envisage a catapult?' THAT's the sort of politician we want. Is Dave up to it?
Kevyn Bodman
May 23rd, 2008 5:03amI don't much care what Labour MPs do about it.
What are the Conservatives going to do about it?
What direction is Cameron going to take?
How does he view his impending Premiership?
Does he want to simply BE Prime Minister? If that's the case I can have no enthusiasm for him.
Or does he want to DO things, and UNDO the policy failures of the last 11 years?
The victory at C&N shows 2 things, people are fed up with NuLab and Brown AND are ready to hear assertive Conservative talking.
Start the election campaigm now, Mr. Cameron.Clarify your policies and get out and about with a series of major speeches.
Let nobody be in any doubt what an incoming Conservative government will do. The time for discussion is NOW. Then when you come back from the Palace one Friday in the not too distant future you can start that very day.
Kevyn Bodman
May 23rd, 2008 5:54am'We don't need little changes;we need gigantic, monumental changes' said Sam Seaborn in a very different context.
Here are some of the changes we need from an incoming Conservative government.And thay should take the lead in the natinal debate now, after that resounding win in C&N.
Let the Labour Party plot and fester, we don't care about their prospects.
The EU:
Clarify your position and give us a vote on the 'reform treaty' at least, on menbership too.
I would like us out of the EU altogether.
Tax/benefits:
Neither of these are working properly.
Simplify and reduce taxes. Make work a much more atractive choice.
Change benefit culture; being on benefits should not be a career option.
End child benefit for ALL children born one year after you take office, but announce it now.
I got this idea off the Guardian comment pages and I think it's a superb one. You lay down a clear indicator that benefit reliance is unacceptable, and you do it without withdrawing benefits from anyone currently in receipt, and you give people time to change their behaviour.
You take a big step towards putting the idea that people are responsible for their own actions back into the public consciousness. And that's an idea that has faded badly.
Education:
'Expect people to do well, and require them to do well,' said Toby Zeigler in another context.
And this is how the most successful platoon sergeants, and Commanding Officers, and teachers and private sector managers, in fact anyone who has to oversee the work of others, best operates.
In Education we have not expected or required enough from pupils,or teachers, for far too long.
'Education is the siver bullet' (Sam Seaborn again.)and it affects the health of our society and our economy for decades to come.
Immigration/social cohesion/multi-culturalism:
This is a very big one and one where,frankly, a lot of politicians are just cowards.
People in the country are worried, both about numbers and about new incoming cultures.
Stop all the immigration we legally can for at least 5 years, then review.
Stop all concessions to incoming groups.
It is absolutely not a racist policy; Kelly Holmes, Monty Panesar and Trevor MacDonald are enough examples that most people are not racists. But do not let Sikhs determine what plays can be produced, do not let Muslims call for holy war against us or our allies.
Come to Britain and fit in and you will be welcome, othewise you won't.
So Mr. Cameron, take the opportunity C&N has given you to start your policy drive now.
Don't just BE Prime Minister, USE the job to DO something.
Water
May 23rd, 2008 6:05am"The failure of Labour’s negative campaign in Crewe and Nantwich also shows that anti-Tory feeling can no longer be relied upon to save Labour" absolutely, the odds are very much stacked against labour. A switch in PM’s would be dubious to say the least, as for the current PM…well.
Water
May 23rd, 2008 6:08amWhat a way to start the day, the good news keeps on coming!
Water
May 23rd, 2008 6:09amWhat a way to start the day, the good news keeps on coming!
Very happy Perry of England. Also British in the sense of formerly Great, and proud of what the result means today.
May 23rd, 2008 7:30amCONGRATULATIONS to all concerned. Well deserved. 10/10 for audacity and application. I’m sure we are all grateful and share your joy.
And thank you Tiberius in an earlier post. Yes indeed, cause for thoroughly refreshing the brain and other parts. I drink to your very good health, and with gratitude for your helpful contributions, and those of others in CH.
And now, to serious matters.
James : clearly you have learned nothing! Shame on you boy. The Noo-Lie-Bore project has left you no further forward has it?
‘Dump’?! ‘Dump’ – the Supreme Leader? Think boy, think. The term is recycle. In an environmentally . . blah blah blah . . .
Go on James, have a bloody good drink, - and Fraser, and Pete and the others.
Paul B
May 23rd, 2008 8:42amBrown is certainly not sustainable.
They sky is gray this morning in North Oxon/S Warwickshire shire, but there is blue sky on the distance...rejoice
john problem
May 23rd, 2008 8:46amBrown should be looking around for the man with the knife. Is it Big Ed? Is it the Milky Bar Kid? Is it the Postman? One begins to feel sorry for him. Well, perhaps not. What we need is Prescott for PM - this po-faced lot we have now should relieve us of their presence, and Prescott would be both interesting and amusing - like Boris. Wouldn't it make a wonderful change?
Chuck Unsworth
May 23rd, 2008 9:13amDump Brown? Brown dump? The imagery is too disgusting for words.
Anyway, Labour have run out of time. Winning the next election becomes even less likely with each passing day. They have no options, really. If they excrete Brown who or what will be a convincing replacement? And if they do not, they will be in the brown stuff anyway.
My guess is that most of them are resigned to their fate and will spend the next eighteen months frantically raising their constituency profiles whilst making as little reference to their party allegiances as possible. The local MP is doing that right now. Almost no mention of the Labour on his website, but an awful lot of guff about local 'ishoos'. He e-mails a weekly newsletter which is also quite revealing as to his lifestyle...
Fergus Pickering
May 23rd, 2008 9:42amPrescott is an ignorant pig and NOT AT ALL like the witty and learned Boris.
TrevorH
May 23rd, 2008 10:07amBodman ...
Its all very well now to wonder what the Tories will do, but the next 6 months will tell us what sort of economy we will inherit. What we want to do is one thing, what we might be able to is another.
Of course the worse thing are maybe the more radical the answers.
Nicholas
May 23rd, 2008 10:19amWonder if Labour will "get the message" and Brown will do another whirlwind TV studio tour to tell the people he understands their pain and is listening. Of course everyone still loves New Labour in their hearts. This is just a protest vote and does not mean people prefer the Tories, who have no substance. Under the last Tory government there were 3 million unemployed, 15% inflation, blah, blah. You know the rest of the mantra. Then no doubt the great re-launch, the mighty fight back. The deja-vu, the stifled yawns.
They are completely delusional. Dunwoody gave an impoverished acceptance speech last night then told the BBC that Labour had held their majority well and only lost because the "Tory voters had come out in force".
The brainless Lib Dem candidate said that despite the Tory majority there was no enthusiasm for voting Conservative in C&N.
Timpson gave a very gracious and considered speech. Listening to him it was quite obvious that the best person won.
The Lone Groover
May 23rd, 2008 10:50amEven GMTV seems to have distanced itself from Broon. Their little montage (this morning) of his 'Premiership' so far - depicting his (alleged) early triumphs through to his recent disasters - showed an over the shoulder shot of a gurning odd-ball affecting a forced grin for the nation's housewives. He is an afflicted man.
Forget the myriad invalid excuses trotted out by Ms. Harman on this morning's Today programme. The main problem (as seen by the electorate) is not one of policy - it is simply with the man Broon.
For how much longer will he be allowed to ride on the wall of death?
Water
May 23rd, 2008 11:52amThe short answer till the next GE.
Water
May 23rd, 2008 12:05pm"What will probably save Brown is a combination of the fact that there is no obvious successor and that Labour would look absurd changing leaders again" or the fact that he won't let go.
Amanda Huggenkiss
May 23rd, 2008 12:48pmI hope Mr Brown develops persecution mania and goes mad in office, like Wilson. That'll make things interesting.
Travis Bickle
May 23rd, 2008 4:30pmAmanda
how will they tell if he's gone mad ot not?
Amanda Huggenkiss
May 23rd, 2008 4:40pmTravis: I dunno. The Internet?
Water
May 23rd, 2008 5:59pmMaybe a litmus test, though I doubt very much that he's ever going to go mad.
Anan
May 23rd, 2008 8:29pmYes, I am back, briefly.
Ahhhhh, well... well... well... What's going on here then? Looks like yet again good ole DaveC and the Crew from the Blue side have proved Fraser's anti-Cameron, treacherous and innane predictions of failure, utterly and irrevocably wrong, yet again. I heard you saying the Conservatives won't be able to win on Question Time last week. At that very second I thought "Wrong again Fraser. How pathetic." Luckily for this country, your wishful thinking doesn't come true.
It's also nice to see more people have figured out how to add paragraphs, etc. to their comments. I must admit though, it did feel good being the only person able to do it.
Until the next ridiculous election prediction from Fraser: Toodlepip all!
Water
May 23rd, 2008 9:17pm"Labour is now in freefall; it is hard to remember the last good week for the government" maybe so, but not for the government to be 19 points, 19 points.
Cogito Ergosum
May 23rd, 2008 9:19pmTo K. Bodman and others like him: one thing that could derail Cameron is the inward-looking complacency of the anti-EU people, who fondly delude themselves that the rest of the world will grant a living to an isolated UK.
Trust the voters, who may not like the EU but are pragmatic about it. They sense that there is something to be avoided in the closed minds of the anti-EU folk; and they showed that in their votes in 2001 and 2005.
Frank Pulley
May 24th, 2008 2:12pmCogito Ergosum.
You ARE, undoubtedly. But what you are, what think and what we think of what you think is debatable, but probably not on a blog that has refined young men as moderators, as some of the bigger bombers would not get under the radar. Do not presume what the 'voters' think. That is not 'thinking', but blind guessing. But you are, yes you defintely are ...
(I'll leave others to finish the last sentence if they wish).
Frank Pulley
May 24th, 2008 2:15pmKofi
"Yes, Im back briefly." Gawd I hope not, haven't you made enough already.