Perry slumps, Cain surges
Jonathan Jones 5:41pmJust over six weeks into his Presidential campaign, the sheen is coming off Rick Perry. Having entered the race as the favourite, he quickly established a double-digit lead over the rest of the Republican field. But now, especially after the candidates' latest debate last week, the momentum has shifted.
Here, to illustrate Perry's fall, is yesterday's Fox News poll, compared to their previous one,
conducted a month ago:
As you can see, the drop in support for Perry has not led to much of an increase for his main rival, Mitt Romney. Instead, the biggest beneficiary has been Herman Cain, who has leapt from 6 per cent a month ago to 17 per cent now. That puts him in third place, just two points behind Perry and six behind Romney. Both of the other polls conducted since the last debate (by CNN and YouGov) also show big gains for Cain.
I said back in May that Cain's debate performances might allow him to rise out of the lower tier of candidates, and that seems to be happening now. Just look at the reaction he got for his "999" tax plan in last week's debate:
Cain is exploiting the opening that has presented itself in recent weeks. But it remains to be seen if his surge will prove more durable than Perry's or Bachmann's. It will be a key factor in determining who takes on Obama next year.
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Augustus
September 29th, 2011 8:36pm Report this commentIs the GOP going to once again bring to the dance a moderate who can win the general election like Mitt Romney, or are they going to go with a true conservative who can make a case to the American people that the time for meandering down the road to socialism and fascism is over? Although a moderate like Romney might put on the brakes, the reality is that what the United States needs is a full stop and a return to a constitutional government. Let community organizations run social programs, let states and parents manage education, let citizens focus on creating wealth and prosperity as they pursue Life, Liberty and Happiness, while the government focuses on securing the borders and providing for national defense.
If the GOP is going to be victorious it will have to field a candidate who clearly articulates a different path and who will be able to stand up against the media’s full support of Barack Obama. Perhaps things have shifted and Herman Cain is the one. But however things go for Cain, the central message should be lower taxes, less regulation and basically getting government out of the way so that people can live their lives. The government that takes the oath in January 2013 might indeed be the government Americans deserve, and if so, let’s hope the GOP gives them a candidate to lead that government that they can be proud of as well.
porkbelly
September 29th, 2011 8:59pm Report this commentJournos tend to get too excited over these sorts of ephemeral short-term polls - yes, Cain is a great speaker but he has no political experience whatsoever. The U.S. already tried electing the well-spoken, inspiring but inexperienced candidate - it hasn't worked out so well, has it? Cain might wind up as a Cabinet appointee but as the candidate for the Presidency? Unlikely. After the flutters of infatuation with Cain or the figures who hover alluringly just out of reach (Christie, Daniels, Ryan etc.) I think you will see the Republicans picking between Perry and Romney. Perry, in particular, is going to learn from his mistakes and show the competitive edge that has won him three Texas governorships; my money is on him to win it.
Jez
September 29th, 2011 10:56pm Report this commentI like Cain. I hope he does it.
He doesn't b*llshit and seems sincere.
He'll tackle Obama head on and not be constrained of effected by any liberal mud-slinging, if or when they attempt the race card.
Arthur
September 30th, 2011 10:26am Report this commentCain has got 'Vice President' written all over him.
Verity
September 30th, 2011 3:53pm Report this commentTime for Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal to step forward. He not only cleaned up decades of corruption in the state ... having declined to join the old boys' club ... but has made it into such an attractive business environment, companies are pouring in.
He's nice looking, articulate and funny. He has a beautiful wife and two good looking children. He's of Indian (sub-continent) origin, so he's articulate and funny, and his mother was a nuclear physicist in India.
What the hell are the Reps waiting for????
cg
September 30th, 2011 4:03pm Report this commentFirst Palin was the big hope of certain Coffee Housers. Then it was Bachmann, then, Perry. Each one has let them down. Hardly surprising, as all three come over as uneducated idiots. Looks like Christie might have to come to their rescue, but he has some dangerous opinions so far as the true believers are concerned.
Huntsman would be the best but in today's disgrace of a GOP he has no chance.
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