Will Carter get Brown?
James Forsyth 11:55am
Gordon Brown has survived the first 30 hours after Crewe and Nantwich. In public, the cabinet has remained supportive and even among backbenchers those prepared to openly call for leadership contest are few and far between. Behind the scenes, though, things are different—just look at the string of anonymous quotes in today’s papers. But no one is yet prepared to be, in Martin Kettle’s phrase, ‘Labour’s Geoffrey Howe.’
One man to watch in all this is Stephen Carter, the man that Brown hired to create and market ‘new Gordon.’ If Carter were to walk it would be taken as proof that Brown is incapable of change and that Labour has no chance of winning the next election. As one friend of Coffee House, a particularly astute Tory, pointed out to me yesterday, Carter going would—in terms of impact—be equivalent to a cabinet minister resigning.
There are a couple of reasons why Carter might walk. First, he was strongly opposed to the toff-baiting elements of the Crewe and Nantwich campaign but was overruled. If Brown doesn’t start listening to his advice, he might decide that he’s had enough of trying to save the Brownites from themselves. The second reason is more cynical: Carter might conclude that being associated with a government that gets routed could be detrimental to his future earnings potential. It has always been thought that Carter would go back into the private sector at some point; his stint as the Prime Minister’s chief strategist would make him a trophy hire able to dictate his own terms. But if Brown takes Labour down to a defeat equivalent to the Tory one in 1997, then everyone in Downing Street will be tainted by this failure. There’s hardly like to be much competition among private sector firms to hire Brown’s chief strategist in these circumstances.
Unlike most people who work for Brown, Carter does not feel a sense of tribal loyalty to the Labour party so is less likely to be concerned about what quitting might do to the party’s prospects. On top of this, he did not really know Brown before taking the job so is unlikely to feel particularly constrained by ties of friendship. Back in March, one Labour insider was quoted as saying about Carter “He will give it his all for six months. If it doesn't work out, he'll go back to the PR world."
If Carter goes, expect those he brought to Number 10 to follow him out the door. In the Brown bunker, the rule might be last in, first out.
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Comments
Perry
May 24th, 2008 2:12pmBut surely, by extension, isn’t the task much larger than that portrayed here?
As we have before noted in these columns, taking on such work subsumes the woes and welfare of the entire coterie. And, as such, the entire tormented and deluded collective mind of Noo-Lie-Bore inevitably is linked and at-one with that of the Supreme Leader.
The situation is indeed grim. And requires the most delicate and skilful management. Not one for the squeamish and faint hearted, or those without resolve.
Therefore, and assuming that the Carter man is not without self-interest, this could be his chance to break new ground, make a real name for himself, as rescuer, nay magician, of lost causes. Future earnings would be his for the asking.
Frank Pulley
May 24th, 2008 2:24pmInteresting analysis, James. It illustrates just how superficial politics has now become - but still as pernicious nonetheless as that other apprently superficial phenomenon: skin cancer!
John
May 24th, 2008 5:08pmPerry, do you genuinely think that Carter could possibly save this tumbling edifice? If so, how exactly?
But I suspect your tongue was firmly in your cheek.
kinglear
May 24th, 2008 5:32pmCarter has no chance, not because he isn't good, but because the Great British Public no longer believes or wants PR, especially from Brown. So nothing he does could make any difference - in fact it could actually work against success.
So the really really smart move would be somewhow to get Brown out, when Carter could retire with grace and say well, I never really had the chance to make it work.
But I suspect he'll just leave quite soon.
Perry
May 24th, 2008 5:40pmJohn – I suspect you may be right.
Perry
May 24th, 2008 5:59pmBUT . . . this thread has prompted me to read and re-read Fraser’s header of March 5. Several phrases now seem odd, even surreal :
. . . Amazingly, Gordon is slowly letting go. . . .
. . . The PM is building an increasingly professional team in No. 10 — and, more importantly, learning to trust it . . . .
OK, then. Let's lie back and watch this miracle continue.
EyeSee
May 24th, 2008 6:57pmYou know that the biggest problem facing the United Kingdom is that shown up in this item. Politics today is ONLY about the political parties, their fights for power and the idiots who put themselves forward as above others. Their self important preening goes on while the country rots through ignorance and neglet. The problem with the society of the nation today comes from the top. It's not as the old unbelievably stupid lefties think, that the monarchy is the root of all evil, but the corrupt, incompetent types in government. And this process has come to it's logical conclusion with the money grubbing nonentities that staff New Labour. Brown was a useless Chancellor for the same reason Blair was a useless PM; neither care a jot for the role, just the money and power. The first reform we need is to rid parliament of party based politics, it is inherently anti-democratic. But of course, this is pointless unless we free ourselves from the shackles of the totalitarian regime epitomised by the EU. The Age of the Elites must be ended, and soon.
Chuck Unsworth
May 24th, 2008 7:40pm@ Perry
"OK, then. Let's lie back..."
Isn't it the lying that's the problem?
Perry
May 24th, 2008 10:20pmChuck Unsworth – thank you. Yes, I agree with your sentiment. Stupid, vapid, grandiose, otiose, politicos are an expected part of the course I suppose. But I find the recursive (lying) the most perplexing problem of all. It is not only dangerous, it never ends, and to me, carries Orwellian overtones.
Or perhaps, more charitably, it should be seen as deluded waffle. Either way, it is of no benefit to the country as a whole.
Ian C
May 25th, 2008 1:23pmI can't see any point in Carter staying - it's not rescuable and he probaly agree the job when GB was up (July to Sept last year).