Tsar Putin III defines himself
Daniel Korski 4:23pm
Vladimir Putin, in the manner of a modern day Tsar, has launched a series of initiatives
to mark his march back to the Kremlin. His most eye-catching proposal is to form a Eurasian Union, a Moscow-controlled EU for the post-Soviet space. Writing in Today’s Times (£), Russia’s strongman explains the benefits: a union would aid greater economic integration in the
region and it would place a regional bloc on the other side of the negotiating table from the European Union.
But, what are Putin’s real aims, beyond laying out an agenda for his presidential term? Steps could be taken to integrate the post-Soviet region; but, without domestic reforms in Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan and so on, the benefits of further economic integration will probably be minor. It is already relatively easy for workers to travel in and out of Russia, which has used migration, especially from Central Asia, to check demographic decline.
The first thing to note is that nothing of this is, in fact, new. Vladimir Putin has sought to develop a single economic space in the post-Soviet region for more than 12 years. Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Belarus have resisted Putin for political reasons, fearing domination by Russia. Attempts to forge a simple customs union in the past were frustrated by the bureaucratic incompetence and endemic corruption that characterises Russia and Central Asian today. None of this has changed and an ambitious EU-like project remains a remote possibility, which Putin must realise.
Of course, this may just be a case of Putin trying to eclipse Dmitry Medvedev. The current Russian president has made WTO membership for Russia a key plank of his presidency, which would be undermined by Putin’s Eurasian Union.
That’s the domestic side; then there is a regional part. Putin’s proposal, though unrealistic, is a useful diplomatic initiative to counter central Asia’s growing reliance on China and bring Ukraine to heel. As Russia expert Ben Judah notes: “If you join Putin’s bloc you don’t have to worry about becoming a central Asian Zambia” – that is, become over-reliant on China. A third possible aim concerns Europe. Russia wants to claim that it represents more than itself when it argues with the EU over market access issues. As such, it would play to the EU’s desire to have links with other regional blocs, even when they didn’t exist.
Whatever motivates Putin, it is worth noting how keen Putin is to define his return to presidential power in contrast to the supposedly pro-Western and Europhile instincts of Medvedev.
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Faceless Bureaucrat
October 6th, 2011 4:58pm Report this commentSo, Soviet Union - Rebooted...
Just as our Army, Navy and Air Force are cut to the bone. Déjà Vu anyone?...
FB
Hexhamgeezer
October 6th, 2011 5:27pm Report this commentBlimey Mr K! An analysis I can agree with (I must have forgot the angry pills today)
Putin's Eurasian proposal sounds like his Big Idea for his next stay in office. It presents him as a mature and forward looking statesman to his near abroad, his domestic audience and the wider world. The fact that it won't get off the ground doesn't really matter as it's failure will be down to others.
His real project will be to continue to recover or acquire new privileges and power for the generation of would be nomenklatura who lost out in the Yeltsin years.
As you suggest, endemic corruption will prevent the country from developing quickly (or maturing as a nation state for that matter). Putin himself is probably uncorruptable but as a KGB man he understands all to well its usefulness in creating a Soviet Union Lite.
TomTom
October 6th, 2011 6:07pm Report this commentPutin is in position before the US has candidates. He knows he has to defend Russian interests in the Middle East and put the erratic Erdogan in his place so Russia can bring Iran to heel and dominate Central Asia. With Europe imploding he needs to define Russia as The Power to work with Germany and prevent the bandit states overwhelming Stability and Order.
The US has taken a holiday from being a mainstream player in the region and rightly or wrongly is perceived as a fading star encouraging pipsquaks like Erdogan to think Turkey can dictate to Germany and Israel, Syria and the former Ottoman states, which brings Russia's historical desire to bring Turkey to heel to the fore.
Putin is in place: and the Western political system is besotted with trivia and unable to deal with geopolitical and economic change
porkbelly
October 6th, 2011 7:56pm Report this commentPutin is far from "incorruptible" - do a Google search for the enormous Saddam-style palace he is building for himself near Sochi. That plus his recent plastic surgery show that his reign is less likely to resemble that of Peter the Great and more likely to resemble that of Brezhnev, with the thievery and inertia of the great Russian bureaucracy ensuring that his imperial ambitions go nowhere.
Baron
October 7th, 2011 8:43am Report this commentthe guy will run Russia again, hence is batting for Russia, what's so unusual about it, should he, like our boy, go for saving the world?
Wily Trout
October 7th, 2011 12:27pm Report this commentBureaucratic incompetence and endemic corruption... just like the EU then.
Norman Dee
October 7th, 2011 4:17pm Report this commentLike the EU it will probably want an army and a police force as well, now let's see where can we base that ? Isn't just very coincidental that Russia already has the biggest army and police force in the region so they will do. Lets see what happens in this union when little Geotgia breaks the rules or is late in paying.
Rupert
October 9th, 2011 11:08am Report this commentChrist almighty, they just never learn from history. Russia and the Ukraine carried the rest of the Soviet Union just as Germany and France carry the weaker nations in Europe. Mr Putin Russia has everything inside it's own borders to ensure long term prosperity.
Yam Yam
October 12th, 2011 1:40pm Report this commentEurasian Union; Greater East Asian Co-Prosperity Sphere; European Union.
The outcome is usually the same. The centre grabs control and resources at the expense of the nation states that have been subsumed.
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