Cameron's strategy is better than it looks

David Phipps 1

A ridiculous argument Mr, Jones.

Cameron's victory will be a pyrrhic one at most.

As for the low percentage who think the EU is a problem, this is only because the politicians have ensured that the subject is never discussed.

I have to ask what you know about 'acquis communitaire' because if you knew anything you would know that renegotiation is not an option and consequently would not be writing as if it were.

Back to school for you, methinks!

Publius

"now is not the right time."

Yes, Jonathan, you keep telling yourself that.

HairyNoddy

Membership of EU itself may not be a major deal for a lot of people, but it is an obstacle to dealing with issues which do anger people, such as the state of the economy and immigration.

Publius

"by the ones they are gaining from the Lib Dems"

Those would be the same Lib Dems who promised a referendum at the last election, and then reneged on their promise, no?

Sorry, Jonathan, you are taking us for idiots.

Grigori

To sum up, your conclusion is that Cameron is ignoring principle and the interests of our nation for short-term poll advantage and good PR. How reassuring.

MJS

Just because only 3% of people name an issue as a priority, it doesn't mean they don't have a view. Otherwise politicians would deal with just one issue at a time (the economy at present) and focus on nothing else, which is a ridiculous concept. Virtually everyone in the country, irrespective of this 3% figure, has a view on membership of the EU and belittling that will not make the issue go away Jonathan!

MilRob

The excuse of "Now is not the time" is disingenuous nonsense. The motion if carried is neither binding on the government nor does it call for it to be carried out until the next parliament ie May 2012 to May 2013.

The electorate believe that he has already offered to attempt to renegotiate (which is seen as an integral part of the motion) and will now see that offer was a hollow lie.

You are wrong. He is allowing the Labour Party to compare him to the divisive Major government. Not clever at all.

Axstane

One cannot win by overcoming those who are on the same side. The expected size of the rebellion is tremendous.

Obviously, with the Labour vote also whipped and the totally hypocritical LibDems reversing their manifesto promise the motion will be defeated but the issue will not go away.

I can still forgive Cameron nonetheless as he has to juggle many balls at the same time but the LibDems deserve total annihilation for their bare-faced affrontery.

Poor spin by the way - only 3% have the EU as their prime concern. My own right now is Sunday lunch - I have 7 guests. Tomorrow I will have another prime concern.

Dennis Churchill

More Spin. He will now need to rely on spin to save face.
The genie is out of the bottle, as far as the public is concerned. The only safe and successful strategy that can, and has been used in the past is construct a “consensus” that the EU is vital for our continued economic wellbeing and only eccentric Right Wingers want us to leave. The BBC is a major player in this spin operation but even they will find it difficult to give so much publicity to Dale Farm and the St.Paul’s protesters and hardly cover the much larger demonstration that will be organised to support this vote.
Cameron should have quietly allowed a free vote so it became a non-story.
Cameron can’t afford to lose the grass roots party which the Notting Hill Set don’t seem to understand. Just because they feel contemptuous of the membership mass defections is the last thing they need. The modern membership doesn’t have the same attitude towards the leadership as they had in the past.
Of course Clegg may have had the last word and he has other priorities.
This is just a stage. The outcome is inevitable as you only have to ask two questions:”is it possible the British electorate will never get a chance for a referendum on the European Union?” and “could Cameron win a leadership election?” to see where we are going.

William Blake's Ghost

Ridiculous arguments once more.

Quoting a journalist from a predominantly Libdem paper is hardly evidence of anything and using that purile argument about the Mori issues index (Environment are just 4% and Constitutional Issues and Devolution just 1%) but that hasn't stopped Cameron pandering to the Roons and Loons on such issues and Tax only rates 4% should we not bother with Osborne's reforms?

Furthermore, it is pathetic to pretend that the EU is not important when the main argument for NOT having a referendum is that the impact could be such as to collapse EU economies with dreadful knock on effects on this country. The argument that the EU is an irrelevence as some defence for not debating it is dead and those now using it are only admitting utter defeat on the issue by doing so.

Quite frankly Europhiliacs are in disarray their utopian dream is in tatters and the sooner we free ourselves from it (just to shut the pathetic whinings of the europhiliacs up) the better! It's over! The EU is a busted flush.

Amanda

You rather sound like a man who would have supported our joining the euro. So, I'll take your current effort in that vein.

Slim Jim

Well, I've never been asked what I think about the EU. It is obvious that politics is getting in the way of democracy ('twas ever thus). As far as I am concerned, the EU is certainly not a solution to our problems, it is actually making them worse. The momentum is building; when the Euro collapses, it will be interesting to hear the Europhiles' arguments. They are like the wee boy with his finger in the dyke. It's only a matter of time...oh, and 'In the EU, but not run by the EU' is such a load of old pish, that even Hague must feel embarrassed saying it!

Dennis Churchill

Axstane
October 23rd, 2011 12:07pm
They are playing up the size of the rebellion in order to spin it as a Cameron Firm Leadership victory.
Nonsense
We need to accept people can’t just be parachuted into national leadership roles without senior experience in some area where they can be tested first.

Frank Sutton

"he understands politics better than his opponents do..."
Ah yes, far better to be a good player of the game of politics than to act on principle.
But how sad that that should be seen as praiseworthy.

Nicholas

I don't think that statistic is especially significant but it does pander to politicians who like to presume what "the public wants".

Looking across the forums the depth of feeling about EU membership is apparent and the parliamentary rebellion clearly reflects that. Rather than the rebels being "out of touch" I believe they better represent the average person in the street's views rather than our political elite who have a track record of manipulating the "public view" for their own ends.

TGF UKIP

Reply to Fraser:

Thanks for the formal confirmation. We can see now why he chimes in so well with the Cameron Spectator.

Hexhamgeezer

The 3% figure is a superb illustration of how the msm and the legions of Jonathan Jones' never explain the link between the EU and ALL of the major issues that people are concerned with.

ALL of our concerns ARE EU issues.

Weasels

Michael

The reason why only 3% are claimed to care is because no one has made clear to them the link between being a member of the EU, immigration and unemployment. High unemployment is a direct result of lack of investment in education and the ease of buying cheap foreign labour.

RCE

This from a man who insisted on a referendum on PR: how many people thought that was "one of the main issues facing Britain today"?

Democracy is only for Libyans and Afghans, it seems.

REPay

It is high time the PM turned whatever political skills he has to winning the argument about the deficit. I am afraid people think it was the bankers alone while Balls/Brown ruined public finances. There continues to be no coherent government narrative about why we are in this predicament. The Occupy the City movement will ensure that government responsibilty (the last one) fades from memory.

Tiberius

Cameron is often criticized for failing to win a majority against the definitively unpopular Brown. Those who hold this view do not specify which voters, and in what number, judged Brown to be definitively unpopular. And they generally ignore the historically monumental swing that was required.

I wonder how many of those critics would come back if Cameron failed to win a majority in 2015, and say he failed again against the useless MiliEd. If he allows Europe to affect his party as it has before, he is in danger come 2015. No one will remember his "principled" stand if he blows it over Europe. They will just call him a failure for messing up the politics.

Propagandists

Correct TGF. Dancona, who is an inside man to the Cameron power at any cost project, set the train in motion with the Spectator. Nelson has just continued it. They are both bought and paid for in cash,favours, acccess and something understood; like the majority of the rest of the media.

Heartless Perry

Cameron's strategy is better than it looks

How ridiculous.

paulo

Anybody concerned about immigration is in effect asking to vote on EU open borders

Anybody concerned about slow business growth is in effect asking for a vote on stifling EU regulations.

Immigration and the economy are #1 and #2 on the list of things that keep people awake at night.

BOTH are EU membership issues.

Anybody trying to spin otherwise is being DISHONEST.

Mr. Bubbles

"The difference here between Cameron and his backbenchers is not one of views, but of strategy. Cameron and his inner circle are all for a "looser relationship" with the rest of Europe."

Ahahahahahahaha, pull the other one.

Paul Danon

Fraser may add his PS, but the 3% is hard to refute. How tragic that British people seem not to care about their nation.

Michel d'Anjou

Has anyone got a copy of the full polling? I'd be interesed in seeing the questions and find out if the "key" question was embedded in a list. Yes Minister and how to get both a yes and a no on the same issue springs to mind.

Dennis Churchill

Paul Danon
October 23rd, 2011 2:32pm
With modern marketing techniques, unlimited taxpayers’ money and a controlled education system feeding into the media it is amazing the opposition is as high as it is.
With the resources that the EU has at its disposal it must be disappointing for them that we are not holding mass rallies in support and sending our personal jewellery to be melted down to bail it out.

Malfleur

Has anyone yet been able to spot the Spectator's resident Conservative?

Mal

If it looks like a bad strategy, sounds like a bad strategy and smells like a bad strategy - then it probably is. Cameron is not challenging the Euro-sceptics, he is merely towing the EU line. He will not come out of this looking stronger. He will look like he is - a puppet.

Rhoda Klapp

Will there be 'another voice' from an articulate eurosceptic? Or is that platform only for those to the left of the Spectator?

London Calling

Cameron's strategy is better than it looks…?

A Three Line Whip? The threat of a block on his own for a ministerial position?, no Promotion in the backroom, and a cut in holiday dates at Christmas ?

Cameron’s Strategy couldn’t look worse…

And its not even binding?...

There’s nothing sceptical about an in/out referendum on the European Union, however there is everything undemocratic about not being allowed to discuss one let alone having one…

Tomorrow has already flushed out the true distraction/s…

London Calling

Cameron's strategy is better than it looks…?

A Three Line Whip? The threat of a block on his own for a ministerial position?, no Promotion in the backroom, and a cut in holiday dates at Christmas ?

Cameron’s Strategy couldn’t look worse…

And its not even binding?...

There’s nothing skeptical about an in/out referendum on the European Union, however there is everything undemocratic about not being allowed to discuss one let alone having one…

Tomorrow has already flushed out the true distraction/s…

Cynic

"Cameron is in fact displaying a great deal of political nous by taking on the hardline Eurosceptics in his party." What you, like many in the isolated Westminster bubble, fail to realise is that Cameron is not just taking on the hardline Eurosceptics in his party, he is also taking on the will of the people. All three parties, at various times, promised a referendum. All three have reneged. All three are set to whip their members to deny the people the promised referendum. Voters want to have their say - in or out (renegotiation is a total non-starter thanks to acquis communautaire). If Cameron is so dead set on keeping us in and feels that the Europsceptics don't represent the mainstream of opinion, why doesn't he put it to the test? A resounding IN vote would prove him right, wouldn't it?

David L

As a long-time eurosceptic I despair at most of the postings above and the antics of the Conservative backbenchers. There is about to be a wholesale recasting of the EU, which will depend on the outcome of the debt bail-outs. That will be the time to make the case for a redrawing of the relationship we, as a non-euro country, have with the eurozone in particular and the EU as a whole. THAT will be the right time for a referendum. Monday's vote is no more than a collective premature ejaculation. And btw when did anything sensible emanate from the Daily Express?

ex-Tory Voter

Tiberius, many people are willing now to desert the Conservatives over this issue. They might have held their noses, despite their misgivings, and voted for Cameron as being "not Brown", but they certainly won't do that again. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. I should be astounded if Cameron could win a victory in 2015.

Of course, being against the EU is not a right-wing issue, despite how it is portrayed in the press. After all, one could hardly accuse Tony Benn of being right-wing, could one? It is an issue which concerns people right across the political spectrum.

oldtimer

You say:
"The difference here between Cameron and his backbenchers is not one of views, but of strategy."

I say:
"That is rubbish."

I S

Wholly agree. Not surprised by 3% showing. The Tories ahve been ripping themselves apart over Europe for over 50 years and Cameron, as leader, is right to assert his authority over the single-issue loons.

Vulture

Just returned from a Sunday lunch chat with my brother-in-law who is both a former Cameron loyalist, used to be a EU fan and is something in the City as well as an inside member of a Tory constituency assn. (Dominic Raab's seat in Surrey).

His opinion, for what its worth, is that the EU is done and busted; that Tory opinion in the grassroots is incandescent with rage at Cameron; that he has handled this issue with monumental incompetence putting G. Brown to shame; that only the opinions of the Lib Dems matter to him ( hence J.Jones's fulsome support); oh, and that he won't be Prime Minister 18 months down the tracks.

Why, when the EU is manifestly self-destructing before our eyes, should we chain ourselves to this corpse any longer?

And why, as many wonder, does Fraser Nelson employ a host of leftie liberals on this supposedly Conservative website, but not a single Tory? (I bet he won't answer this).

fergus pickering

The reason why the public think X is that no-one intelligent like me has ever explained to the lowbrowed morons that Y.

Dennis Churchill

ex-Tory Voter
October 23rd, 2011 4:05pm
I’ll be astounded if there is not a General Election before 2015.

Scary Biscuits

It's not just the LibDems whose poll ratings are in the toilet led by Cameron and Clegg; it's the Tories' too. Labour would win an election based on the current polls. The polls have been so stable for so long now that it appears people have made up their minds. Baring a very unlikely turnaround in the economy, it is therefore now impossible for the Conservatives to win the next election with Cameron, just as it is impossible for the LibDems to hold onto half their current seats with Clegg.

Clever strategy, 'understanding politics' - my arse. Clegg and Cameron understand nothing except other posh boys like themselves. Anything else is wishful thinking.

Chris

This whole debate is based on a lie. The petition has not been signed by 100,000 people. It has been signed by 36,000.

http://epetitions.direct.gov.uk/petitions/356

Not exactly a mass movement of opinion is it?

Herbert Thornton

"He will win the vote, assert his authority over his party and appear strong on the television news."

Really? Would it not be nearer the truth to say that the BBC will do its utmost to make him appear strong on the television news?

normanc

If this is the best, and I daresay even the author would admit he's far from that, that the pro-EU crowd have to offer then the argument is well and truly lost for them.

William Blake's Ghost

A Question for Fraser.

Is it 'de riguer' to have a Libdem for a pet in the Westminster Freakshow this year?

David Price

Hmmm... I think this is a little too glib, if you ask me – it's almost as though this story has been 'placed' by someone in Tory high command.

I think Cameron's whipping this to avoid all-out war with the Lib Dem coalition partners - this is potentially explosive when Eurosceptics use the fact that they've won a parliamentary vote as he rationale to do something now re: leaving the EU. The Lib Dems wouldn't be amused at all and for many it's a make-or-break issue. So Cameron's trying to kick this into the long grass for tactical reasons...

Ironically I do think he's very anti-EU, it's just he's more desperate to maintain the coalition until he's sure he can get re-elected, than he is to leave Europe, right now!

Baron

If we did have an in/out referendum who you reckon would campaign on the out side, ha? The political parties, the unions, the CBI, the BBC? Baron reckons the ins would win, and if they did, it would be as disastrous as it gets, no way out, no escaping the full Monty of the undemocratic construct for generations to come.

The way to tackle the issue is to have a referendum on a new treaty, one that would proclaim all member states to be sovereign, remain sovereign forever, all having the right either to adopt, or to opt our permanently from any decision by any EU institutions. Messy, of course, but then democracy has never been anything but messy, that’s why it has survived.

Clear Memories

So Cameron's strategy is to make himself unelectable?

Smart result.

FvH

Jonathan your analysis is incorrect - Cameron is nothing without the party fully behind him - this is the beginning of the end for him - he was never really loved by the party but this crass grab for headlines sets the grassroots against him - no Tory leader can survive that

Leadership challenge this time next year

Gone by 2013

The Remittance Man

So we are expected to take as proof positive of this author's opinion, the opinion of another journalist paid by the country's most europhile newspaper. Mmmmm? Let's see ....

Nope. Still not convinced.

Cameron has missed a golden opportunty to demonstrate several things.

Firstly he has missed the chance to show that he actually believes in the principles of democracy and the people's right to be heard, as he frequently claims.

Secondly, he has missed the chance to strengthen his negotiating position by reminding the rest of the eu that in Britain a referendum on eu membership can be initiated by public acclaim.

Thirdly he has missed the chance to get a subtle dig in at both Labour and the LibDems for reneging on pre-election promises and for being unwilling to listen to the public.

So all in all Mr Cameron has not scored a success, just a monumental own goal, that could well dog him for the rest of his political career.

Rue de la Loi

If "now is not the right time" could Jonathan please explain why now was the right time for the Lib-Dims until 3 days ago, when their pledge on a referendum mysteriously disappeared from the Lib-Dim website (hat-tip Guido)?

As to the notion that Cameron has it right by not "banging on about Europe", Michael yesterday at 1.12pm nails that: if this is what Cameron really believes then it means he believes that it is no business of HMG to engage with issues such as; immigration, employment policy, energy and regulation of financial services. The idea that the scope of the government's responsibilities should be adjusted to match the current PM's intellect is certaintly original, but has no constitutional basis.

Yam Yam

If the history of the Conservative Party over the last ten years is any guide then "now" never is the time.

Meanwhile, the SS Titanic steams on full ahead into the dark, starry night...