Tory Wars, redux

Dennis Churchill

This seems just a misjudged attempt to reinforce the Detoxification project aka: get the BBC Guardian chattering classes on side.
He lives in a bubble made worse by being PM.
This administration won’t run to 2015 and both the Conservatives and LibDems will be hurt by their association.
Getting rid of Cameron would trigger an election with the Conservatives divided and with a new leader. This is giving him confidence to impose his Lib Dem policies---that and his inexperience in any senior management role before becoming leader. They are lucky in having Miliband lead Labour but that is just reducing not eliminating the risk of a Labour revival.
The party made a great mistake electing him.

Yosemite Sam

At first I, like you, could not understand why Cameron was digging his heels in over this debate and vote. As you say, why not let it take its course. But on further reflection, I have come to the conclusion that Cameron has taken the view that, whicheverway the vote goes, it would weaken his position vis-a-vis bargaining with the EU. If the motion had been lost on a free vote (the most likely outcome), then the EU would deduce that there was no support for a hard bargaining stance. On the other hand, if the motion passed then Cameron's position is weakened because the EU will deduce that, irrespective of bargaining, the UK will never be satisfied and Cameron could not meaningfully deliver a bargain.

Vanessa Morriss

I'm not the biggest fan of the EU, but I do recognise we must be part of it.
A referendum would be suicidal in my opinion. Plus do we really need to waste so much money on having one?

Vulture

Whilst I warmly welcome Fraser's reluctant but honest admission that his support for the EU is very much a minority enthusiasm, since an ever increasing majority are against the whole poisonous shambles; and while I also admire his honesty in backing the referendum that Dave so shamefully and stupidly denies us, two points in his post surprise me.

The first is his puzzlement at Cameron's EU-enthusiasm - doesn't he know that the man is a bought and sold Europhile? Has he not heard that Cameron used to wear their despicable servile logo on his cufflinks?

The second surprise is that Fraser shares the delusion that powers can be 'repatriated' from the EU. Its rules specifically forbid his, and there has never been a case of a single power, once lost to Brussels, being won back. It just can't happen.

No Fraser, like virginity, there are no half measures. It's either all in, or all out. You have made your choice. Now let us make ours.

Paul Danon

You write that you "place a huge value on the free movement of goods, services and people" yet I'm sure you know that Norway, for example, experiences just such transactions with the EU through its membership of the EEA and Schengen. Sadly, Europhiles appear (at least I think they do) to miss the sovereignty-point of scepticism.

TrevorsDen

just wake up mr nelson. If cameron had said nothing then we would have had loads of comments saying he was weak and/or ignoring parliament or mown party.

The issue and the problems (if any) come from thick ignorant sad and stupid putting the their prejudices and ignorance before the good of the country. Too many of them are alsom using this issue as a means to undermine everything that most tories stand for and want.
Rather they use this as a trojan horse to turn the tory party into something it is not and never has been.
Of course if they are successful it will lead to a further generation of labour govt.

My argument with Cameron is that he is not being hard enough with these stupid pillocks.

Rex Burr

Regarding trade with Europe, we have the EU ‘Belt’ for support but we also have the GATT ‘Braces’.
Our trousers won’t fall down without the ‘Belt’.

Mr. Bubbles

Serious question Fraser: As I understand it, in order to re-negotiate our membership, any new terms would need to be ratified by ALL member states, not just our own Parliament. How on earth do you expect all 26 member states to support preferential terms solely for Britain? It seems a complete non-starter.

If true, essentially, you're left with the status quo (ever closer union - we have, after all, become even more entwined in the whole thing under the present, supposedly Eurosceptic, Prime Minister), or a simple 'Out'.

oldtimer

On cue the BBC website is reporting:
"UK Prime Minister David Cameron has discussed changes to the European Union's treaty as part of a package to resolve the eurozone debt crisis.

Speaking after European leaders held emergency talks, Mr Cameron said that any change would not be against UK interests.

He gave no details of any changes being considered..."

How nice to hear that any change will not be against UK interests; I would like to hear what those changes are before reaching that conclusion. Would it not be better to have changes that actually are in favour of UK interests?

I think that Cameron has played this issue badly. As a result he now finds himself between the rock (the EU) and a hard place (of a growing bloc of Eurosceptic Conservative MPs).

Will these changes also be waved through by ministers as mere details - or are we going to get the promised referendum on them? No doubt Cameron will be pressed for an answer.

Greenslime

Do you think he is deliberately trying to get himself dumped as leader of the Conservative Party ahead of the next election?

Alex Withey

Public opinion on this has snapped 10-20% against Europe in a matter of months and Con HQ seem not to have realised. Agreeing to hold an In/out referendum by say 2014 latest, after attempting a treaty renegotiation with the EU seems like a thoroughly reasonable approach to me.

Austin Barry

Parliament: the place where democracy goes to die.

Heartless Perry

Why the agonising?

The 'Tory' party IS divided: the 'Conservative' - who try to con everyone,

and the 'Tory' - who try to adhere to principled government.

Take your pick.

Woody

Whilst this whole thing has become the usual dog's dinner, no-one should take their eyes off the back-stabbing Lib Dems and Labour who really would sell this country down the river if they could.
They don't have a patriotic bone in their bodies.
Nevertheless, I truly despair at the mess the conservatives get themselves into on this subject.
To see John Redwood and Malcolm Rifkind arguing it out on the 'BBC' was infuriating. The BBC must have been laughing their socks off - this is an absolute gift for them.

In2minds

"I share Cameron's instincts on Europe....."

Cameron's views on the EU seem to be the same as those of Neil Kinnock! So H2K, how low can a man go?

normanc

Has Cameron 'done the right thing' so far in his negotiations with the EU commission? I'm sure we all remember the 'no budget increase' stance that morphed into '15% over 4 years' into 'who knows how much but let's sweep it under the carpet' which is just one of a series.

Given his record of 'doing the right thing' so far why should we trust him to do any better in the future?

I'd love to stick my head in the sand, ignore all the evidence and say 'Cameron will stand up for Britain and get powers back' but that's taking Panglossian idealism to extremes.

You'd have to be suffering from some kind of delusion to expect anything other than going with the flow from him.

We'll see though, unlike Fraser I'm not paid to be an astute political judge so Cameron may surprise me.

Publius

"It is the result of a petition to parliament..."

A petition scheme that Cameron cooked up himself, allegedly to give a voice to the people and to restore some vestige of dignity to parliament.

Now, however, he has exposed himself as a two-faced deceiver.

Those who gave him the benefit of the doubt after the shameful 'cast iron guarantee' betrayal will not be fooled a second time.

More damaging still for Cameron is that this fiasco confirms everything his critics have said about him from the start.

Robert Christopher

Fraser, You say, on one hand:
"I'm with Cameron on Europe in that I think that Britain's membership of the EU is, on balance, a good thing"

And on the other:
"Right now, the net cost of EU membership (£9bn a year) outweighs the benefits and our membership has no democratic support given that the Lisbon Treaty was passed in defiance of popular opinion by a Prime Minister who broke a manifesto pledge."

So, on balance, it costs too much!

And, over time, will the financial costs dwindle or grow?

And, over time, will the non-financial costs dwindle or grow?

And will the EU become more democratic?

You also say, on one hand:
"I share Cameron's instincts on Europe and – furthermore – I trust him to do the right thing."

and, on the other:
"It's a great shame that the Prime Minister feels the need to shut this debate down."

So what are Cameron's instincts that you share?

We are not getting a balanced discussion of this subject by MPs or in the media, so there has hardly been a debate to close down.

But times are changing!

Gawain

The whole episode is a charade. The presidents, prime ministers and ministers all meet together in private to stitch a deal together and we will all be told what a wonderful success it has all been, whatever the result or the consequences might be six months or six years from now. If it follows the usual EU format everyone and will win, we will be reassured, yet again, that British interests have been protected.

The problem is, we have all seen this story line before and it is untrue. I no longer accept the argument that the benefits outweigh the disadvantages. The structure of the Euro protects German industry by giving them an artificially low exchange rate which inhibits any growth of our own export led industry. Since the French grabbed the Financial regulation Directory, the City is being rapidly and surely strangled by excessive regulation. The social and legal jurisdiction of the EU are having a detrimental affect on our society. It is significant that Ed Miliband is fully aligned with Cameron's approach.

The EU is still moving towards becoming an increasingly undemocratic state. It suits the political nomenklatura and the bureaucracy in Whitehall and Cameron is just treating his electorate like children by pretending otherwise. We are better off out.

Hexhamgeezer

Mr Nelson is suffering from cognitive dissonance or adaptive preference formation.

perdix

The government has provided a facility where the public can petition for debates in parliament. A debate will take place. However, the government has every right to oppose any motion which arises from the debate. Just because a debate is allowed it does not mean that the result is predetermined.

London Calling

Its not about the money, what’s disturbing is all of it, how the United Kingdom was misled as a people, how the European Union was woven into our loss of sovereignty masked by further creeping European integration with laws that would appeal to some to win favor, whilst implemented others that would strengthened more internal control. If some of our leaders, banks and businesses have only their own interests at heart by being swayed by the coffers of the EU, Then all of us in the United Kingdom not only no longer live in a Democracy, our parliament and other European parliaments serve only one EU Master…I do not…I want the referendum that was promised and plans put in place to vote on a referendum…

For your information we will give or have given £12 million to The EU this year, I thought it was £7 million. From the £12 million we will get £3 million back, however the EU control how it is spent in the UK and an EU sign must be openly displayed by those who receive these grants or else will be fined.

A chart accompanies the following on our yearly contribution…

Being a member of the European Union has been a one-way street for Britain. Contributions from Britain to the EU budget have outstripped the benefits received in every single year of membership.
In total since 1979, Britain has paid in about 260 billion (£228 billion). It has received back in benefits just 163 billion (£143 billion). The difference of 97 billion (£85 billion at today’s exchange rate) has been Britain’s subsidy to the European project.

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2052356/EU-referendum-Tory-Patrick-McLoughlin-accused-bully-boy-bid-kill-vote.html#ixzz1bdCVuVOd

London Calling

Sorry…I meant Billion,,,,or was it Trillion…it will be…

See ya

Fraser Nelson - a self certified supporter of mass immigration and membership of the EU.

Roll on Scottish Independence.

Peter Buss

What a truly dreadful threat by that senior backbencher concerning removing David Cameron.Have these idiots (and I use the term advisedly) learnt absolutely nothing from recent history. Not that long ago the Party committed matricide by removing Maggie because she was anti EU and for years the bitterness that followed wrecked the Party. Now the idea is that we commit patricide by removing the lawfully elected Leader of the Party because he's too pro EU !! What an absolute shower these people really are.

TrevorsDen

Mr Bubbles - they would of course agree it if it was just a charade which would be what would happen if labour were in a position to do just that. But the vote would not go in favour of come out or re-negotiate and would shatter the conservative party for no good reason.

The EU needs to be different and thats what all the countries need to agree. The Euro is not the EU and neither would go away if we left the EU. We would be marginally better off if we left. And that is moot.

The clear and pressing danger the UK faces is the return of a Labour govt. Though to be fair if it returned to power tomorrow it would be forced to follow pretty much the same policies as the govt economically and for the NHS.
Its 2 years down the line the mess would begin and of course they would tear up education reforms.

TGF UKIP

Looks like you're just trying to say that this is just another of Heath2's many political misjudgements, Fraser.

There again, though, other than making sure that he recruited a coterie of right on, young media courtiers, it's difficult to think of many judgements he's got right.

Ben WELLS

I may be being unduly cynical, but perhaps Cameron WANTS a big rebellion, possibly even to lose, on Monday.

To paraphrase J Edgar Hoover, the European project can afford to tolerate little Norway "outside the tent, pissing in" or even littler Denmark "inside the tent, pissing out"; but it could not afford to lose a truly big beast like the UK.

Perhaps Cameron just wants to be able to face Sarkozy & Merkel SA & say "Moi, ou le deluge?" / "Ich, oder die Flut?"

Dave B

There is no strategy. Team Cameron's default reaction is panic.

Peter From Maidstone

TrevorsDen, the EU will never be different. I think you know that, which is why it is so reprehensible that you follow the Cameron line so obediently. What is the danger of a Labour Government in the end? How will it be fundamentally different from this one?

ROJ

Read Peter Oborne's "Guilty Men" and reflect upon everything that "wise men" said about why Britain should join the Euro, and why those who opposed that idea were just head-banging little Englanders and extremists. Then look at the arguments now of those who say we need to stay in the EU to have influence to change it, a referendum would be just a distraction, etc etc blah blah. Do you see any difference?

Baron

Ranting about strategy is totally misplaced, the boy does what he wants simply because he can get away with it, the whole charade is nothing but a manifestation of the de-coupling of those in charge, the small clique that runs things, from the governed.

John Clegg

Dear Mr Kennedy,

This household would like you, as a "backbencher" to support the motion tomorrow that calls for a referendum about our future in Europe.

For over 36 years you people have, by a combination of deceit and trickery, denied the British electorate a true vote about Europe. Now the tide is turning strongly against those of you that have consistently denied us our democratic voice, the tide is now unstoppable.

You promised us a simple In-Out Vote in your last Election Manifesto and up until two days ago you were even advertising it on your party web-site. Now is your chance to fulfil your promise or be seen as an untrustworthy hypocrite.

Please don't bother to try and placate us with weak excuses why you won't keep your promise to us, your electorate.

John & Rosanna Clegg

Ross-Shire

John Clegg

I wanted you to see the above e-mail that I sent today to my local MP, (fat chance of him doing the decent thing, I know!) but you should all contact your own MP by e-mail and make your views known.

Sorry to post twice.

daniel maris

Ha-ha...Cameron in deep doo-doo...

Germany wants to renegotiate treaties by Christmas. LOL

Ian Walker

Mr Bubbles: "How on earth do you expect all 26 member states to support preferential terms solely for Britain?"

You put your foot on the hosepipe of cash.

FvH

This is the beginning if the end for Cameron

As Fraser says a very strange strategy for No. 10 to follow

Political suicide

We will see an initial challenge to his leadership this time next year

The weaknesses of the Cameron leadership are too big

He will be gone by 2013

A new genuinely popular leader will call a snap election and will win outright majority against 2 very weak opposition leaders

Scary Biscuits

"I share Cameron's instincts." This is where you're really in a minority, Fraser. People don't trust him anymore. They've compared his actions with his words too often to believe the latter.

I find Oborne's analysis in the Mail more compelling, alas. Cameron's true belief is as a metropolitan Marxist and an active one at that, although he hides it well for poltical convenience. Like Marx, he believes in agressive equality and that state ownership and spending are fundamentally good things. He believes in the universal proletariate, which justifies his fervour for internation aid. He disdains the will of the people and that they most be forced to do what is good for them.

The Remittance Man

To be PM in a coalition requires a statesman. A statesman would have handled the referendum issue differently, possibly in the way laid out by Mr Nelson.

Cameron is not a statesman. He is a second rate career politician who finds himself increasingly out of his depth. People in this postion often resort to authoritarian means to cover up for their weaknesses. When they believe their authority is under threat they resort to dictatorial knee jerk reactions that ultimately do nothing but the exact opposite of what they were intended to do.

alexsandr

Dennis Churchill@October 23rd, 2011 6:32pm Why, if the tories replace Cameron as leader is a general election triggered. We elect MP's and they will continue in this parliament until a motion of no confidence is passed on the government. But the election of a leader is an internal party matter.
How it will work with the coalition agreement, I dont know but I would doubt the continuation of the coalition is dependant upon Cameron being PM. Tho I doubt the limp dems would like someone like Redwood in no 10!

Cynic

"I have defended our EU membership and place a huge value on the free movement of goods, services and people. " But there is no reason why, given our membership of WTO and with a renewed membership of EFTA, we should not continue to enjoy free movement of goods and services. As for free movement of people - we have enough unemployed of our own; we need to train them up rather than import others to do their job. We have sufficient talent in this country - we just need to incentivise its use.

You say, "I'd prefer that Cameron saves Britain's EU membership by repatriating powers, in the way that he indicated to James Forsyth and myself that he would do" Surely you are not so naive as to believe this would be possible? Acquis communautaire means that once the EU has got powers it keeps them. Not only that, do you seriously think that that 26 others would allow us to get what we want? The idea of renegotiation is a complete non-starter. If repatriation of powers is the serious aim, then OUT is the only way to go.