The wisdom of Eurosceptic crowds

Dave B

"This gap is, in my opinion, wider than can be sustained in a democracy like Britain. A realignment is now overdue."

The only way this has manifested itself is in falling turnout.

http://www.ukpolitical.info/Turnout45.htm

The Canadian conservatives managed to turn those stay-at-home-voters into supporters. UKIP hasn't done that yet.

http://www.theweek.co.uk/25907/stephen-harper-should-be-tory-icon

Vulture

Zoe Williams question/comment to you Fraser isn't 'very good'. It's just 'very arrogant' and perfectly illustrates the great truth that popular opinion is often wiser than the herd mentality of the Westminster bubble.

The fact that an increasing proportion of people are anti-EU while the bubble sticks stubbornly to its wrong-headed madness really does not matter. The bubble will burst when the EU does - and that won't be too long now.

Edward Sutherland

What you might have also pointed out, Fraser, is that it is the elites that benefit massively from organisations like the EU. Think of political nonentities like Ashton and Rompuy provided with expensive lifestyles and benefits for peddling the elites' views on Europe. Think of the Kinnocks and the tens of thousands of euros in salaries, pensions and perks that they're picking up despite their earlier visceral opposition to the EEC. Look at Blair, reported yesterday defending his wicked immigration policies, but he of course insulates himself and his family from the consequences with town houses in Connaught Square, a country estate in the Chilterns and a jet-setting life. No wonder the great majority of people are sick to death of the treachery and hypocrisy of the EU-supporting elites.

Dennis Churchill

I tend to agree with the “Bubble” theory.
Each generation of the so-called “Elite” forms a consensus which following generations disagree with.Slavery,the God given right of kings,colonialism,fascism,communism etc etc.There is a conformity to fashion and the fear of being consider outside this supposed Elite’s culture.
I also agree with free movement of people and trade but it does not require a common government just trade agreements and the presumption that someone from identified countries can live in another country while it is deemed not to be contrary to the interests of the host country.
There is now a momentum, at least in England, which can’t really be stopped, for a much looser relationship with the EU.
The mechanism is Article 50 of the Lisbon treaty which allows a country to leave and enter a trade agreement. The incentive, for the rest of the EU, is the £30 odd billion a year trade deficit we run with them.

Number 7

Great post Fraser, I don't often agree with you and still don't as regards the EU. On this occassion you seem to have identified the problem that the Westminster village has with the electorate. I forget who made the comment about changing the electorate (and can't be bothered reseaching it) but it would appear the quote needs to be reversed.

In many cases ( e.g. The EU and Global Warming ) The "Village" seems to think it can "nudge" the electorate into an alternative view! This is not democraticy in the way I and many others understand it.

A message from the Proles:-

Try using your ears instead if just your voices because we have had enough.

Pot Head

As Rod Liddle said in the Sunday Times if Joe Public had his way Britain would be a cross between Saudia Arabia & N Korea and Mrs Nelson would be one way Easy Jet flight to Stockholm.

Reed

"Does the bouncer's opinion count for as much as the barrister's? "

It seems to at a general election, why not in a referendum. I hear this argument quite often : that it's too complex an issue to leave it to the plebs. How many of us, who vote in our own elections, have read all the detail in all of the parties' manifestos? Perhaps we should not have elections here either : democracy is too important to be left to the ignorant man in the street. Leave it to the political elite to decide who our masters will be.

...and politicians often make pious statements about how troubling it is that ordinary people seem to feel increasingly detached from the political process. If politicians don't trust the people, why should the people trust politicians?

Doppelganger

I think it is patronising in the extreme and more importantly simply wrong to assume the political and media classes are better placed to judge whether the EU is or is not our interests or not. You only have to take a look at their backgrounds, qualifications, experience, and decisions they make to prove that point.

Matthew

Well said Fraser. A couple of recent trends have made this even more true: wider education plus the internet mean that the relative gap between the expertise of the average Jo and the self-styled elites on everything has narrowed; also the quality of person attracted to work within the media and political elites has fallen as these careers have become less attractive.

John Richardson

E. Sutherland.

Perfectly true.

Further, can you imagine holding down a job as Editor of a MSM publication whilst telling the truth about the mass immigration programe?

What do you think Mr Nelson Sir?

Mr Nelson........?

Steve

I'm afraid you're obviously part of the elite Frasier as only an elitist would write such a vague, platitudinous article.

Tarka the Rotter

I would just like to be asked, that's all, and not have others decide what's best...

Walter Ellis

Euroscepticism is rarely born out of knowledge or cool consideration of the facts. It is almost always – as in your case, Fraser – a "gut reaction". You feel in your water that Britain and Europe are not a good fit. In this respect, you are like most nineteenth century politicians, and journalists, who saw Europe principally as a threat and a battleground and much preferred the "sensible" and "antural" option of invading other countries and adding them to the Empire – a direct consequence of which is today's high levels of immigration from former colonies.

Those who point to the current failure of the Euro do so with pleasure, albeit tinged with concern. But when the EU was the Common Market, there were almost as many sceptics, both in Parliament and in the media. Long before the Euro became an issue, generations of Tories complained about this treaty or that. Wherever we happened to be was always a step too far.

As it happens, I don't think that the EU, including the Euro, figures highly on the "to do" list of a majority of ordinary Britons. Conversely, nearly all of the hundreds of thousands of UK citizens who live and work on the Continent, favour the single currency. They are anxious about the events of the last two years and hope desperately that order will soon be restored. But they do not consider the IDEA of a common currency to be anything other than good sense.

Do most Brits really care that much about "ever closer union"? I doubt it. They care about jobs and the economy, health and education, and house prices, all of which have been singularly mismanaged by a succession of British governments over the last 50 years.

Richard Calhoun

Unless the EU is willing to shed itself of its political ambition and concentrate on the business of trade only they are finished,
The British voter has seen through all their profligacy and waste !!

The Last Englishman

The vast majority of UK voters do not want to see 'Treason's Spangled Banner' fluttering over the House of Commons. It seems UKIP's breakthrough moment is nearer than I imagined...

Fraser Nelson

Vulture, I do think Zoe's question was very good - it certainly got me thinking, and enough to inspire this blog. I disagree with her, but she did cut to the heart of the matter very quickly.

MarryMeFraser

My question is in which camp does Fleet Street fall into? Are you part of the Elite or the rest of us mere mortals? Too often I am seeing hacks writing as the voice of the 'Elite', helping them sell their wares to us the 'uninformed' public.

anthony scholefield

'in favour of free movement of persons' you need to define this. Do you mean anyone from the EU can settle in another country ? But who pays for all the infrastructure and capital he requires,assuming he is without any meaningful capital? It is natives of the receiving country.

john miller

I'm sorry?

You ask why there is a consensus for the EU in Westminster?

646 people look at Neil and Glynis and think "Wow!"

Yes, you too can be a numb-brain or merely the wife of a numb-brain and end up a millionaire.

JohnBUK

Might I suggest the "elite" have been more wrong than right in the last few decades?
Immigration
Multiculturalism
Education
EU
Climate Change
et al.
In all these cases the elite deliberately shut down discussion by playing various "cards" ie disparaging the messenger and not the message.
If the answer is so obvious then the argument will stand on it's own feet, in none of these cases has argument been encouraged.

rosie g.

Your analysis of antagonism to Europe is a wee bit cerebral.

You only have to look at our UK meeja to see that those of us who would like a measured approach have no chance.

You have the Mail and the Express in raucous opposition to anything five feet away from Dover. You have the Telegraph, and you have the Times and the Sun which are operating a Murdoch's Last Stand/Get Out Now campaign.

You can hardly blame the folk down the Dog & Duck for thinking that life would be more peaceful if we just left those pesky Europeans to get on with it - without us.

jon dee

Your excellent post is so well-timed.

Perhaps what some commentators and politicians really mean, is whether the " general punter " is intelligent enough to assess the current value of our EU membership. Certainly the impression given by the political elite, the EU bureaucracy, many in the media but particularly the BBC, is that public opinion is unwelcome and misinformed.

Many, including myself, were misled when we voted for entry to the Common Market, which despite it's benefits, was aimed at absorbing us into a new pseudo socialist superstate, with all the usual trappings and excesses of central control.

My Euroscepticism has developed slowly yet surely over the years, as the private sector became strangled by EU red tape and regulation.

The European Single Currency was always a disaster waiting to happen, though we " punters " who warned of this at the time, were roundly insulted and smeared, along with many courageous politicians and pundits who were labelled and libelled so casually. Peter Oborne's brilliant " Guilty Men " is a worthwhile read for those with short memories.

Yet once again, some of the same so-called experts are mounting the barricades against the Eurosceptics.

There seems indeed to be a substantial gap " between those who run the country and those who live in it ". Let those who ignore this do so at their political peril.

The admirable concepts of the Common Market and the retention of peaceful foreign policy aims were, and remain attractive. A Federal State of Europe with all that that would entail is not desireable for many. To once again use the charges of Xenophobes, Little Englanders and worse failed before, and will do so again.

Yes, a realignment is now overdue.

Doppelganger

I do not think the general punter does not give much thought to the EU, but if he/she did, I am sure it would result in even more euro-scepticism.

Tiberius

Number 7: I think you're referring to Bertolt Brecht.

Rhoda Klapp

When I was a kid almost everybody left school at 15/16. That does not mean that was when they finished their education. They were educated in the school of life. Only people who have been to university think that only there can you learn between 18 and 21. In fact, you learn wherever you are, and you never stop.

Good post Feraser, you are beginning to get it.

Dennis Churchill

Elite is a very relative term. Would many members of our political and media classes be among the elite if they had not had the advantages they did?
Would Cameron be MP if he had been brought up on a Middlesbrough council estate? Were the Milibands considered Elite in Haverstock Comprehensive? What if their father had been a carpenter rather than a leading historian? Would Toynbee have been such a media star if she had been born in Dale Farm to a Traveller family?
These people are not really exceptional: alone elite.

Minnie Ovens

"perhaps the general punter is Eurosceptic because they don't give it much thought. Is an opinion born of study and analysis superior to a gut reaction?"

Not a very bright remark and certainly not born of study and superior analysis by yourself, Mr Fraser.
It just might be that the "ordinary punter" who lives in the real world gives far more deep, realistic thought to the question of whether the EC is a good thing than an few persons sitting in their ivory cloisters in Westminster and Whitehall.
They might also have a sense of history, having seen what a hegemony does to Europe. Look at the Romanoffs, Hohenzollerns, Hapsburgs and what happened to them and their peoples; look at what Versailles wrought upon Europe and specifically Germany.
They also might dislike breathtaking lying from politicians who acclaim an EEC which they then turn into an EC, with all our money being given to it for no return when they are going hungry.
Last not least, they might have far more trust in the morals, standards and viewpoints of their parents and grandparents who fought two world wars to save the country from Europeans.
Certainly they have little respect or trust for a bunch of self serving, greedy, shallow trough slurpers who have little interest in what the country needs long term.
After all, look at the damage they have done to the country over the past thirty years.

Widget

One danoconnor in a recent Telegraph comment on a blog wrote this:

What are the rules ?
Whatever they decide .

What can they do ?
Whatever they want .

To whom do they answer ?
To none but themselves .

How much can they spend ?
As much as they like .

Unaccountable , irremovable , dictatorial .
The euro crisis is their Reichstag fire .

Never let a crisis go to waste .
The EU is an organised crime syndicate .

We must be fast approaching that time we were all hoping could be avoided if at all possible .
We will end up with civil insurrection as the only option .

This succinctly sums up the whole EU problem - it was never about free trade & free movement, but about an all-encompassing superstate, brought in by lies & subterfuge, and which at heart is fundamentally undemocratic.

Alan Douglas

Fraser, you want to remain in the COMMON MARKET, which is what I and many others agreed to stay in way back in 1970 odd.

But can you please tell me what benefit to trading in a Common Market there is in locking a trader up for selling bananas to willing customers in pounds rather than kg ? Or how making decisions voter-proof helps trade ? (ie no elections to throw the scoundrels out if that is what they turn out to be) ?

At CM levels I voted for it, at "You will be locked up for insulting Rumpy-Pumpy" levels, I will fight against it.

WHERE is that old-fashioned concept of ruling with "the consent of the people" in the EU ?

Alan Douglas

Number 7

@Tiberius

Thanks

Mark M

I'd be interested to know how often the 'uneducated' are often proved right with their gut instinct.

After all, it took until 1992 for the learned geniuses at the Roman Catholic church to pardon Galileo for being right. Being an expert doesn't make you right, it's kind of reassuring to know the great unwashed understand that too.

TGF UKIP

Notwithstanding UKIP screwing your party up in May 2010 and likely to cause them very considerable embarrassment if there is a by election in a Tory seat in the coming months, I notice that you very carefully maintain Spectator policy of never, ever mentioning them.

Currently I would guess they can't believe their luck as Heath2 more than lives up to his One Continent credentials.

Norman Dee

Are you in favour of the EU in theory or principle ?, and if so does that mean that you are therefore happy with the enormous amount of corruption including that being practised now with the basically illegal, by their own laws,rescue packages being bandied around for failed states like Greece. Especially as these measures are not being taken to rescue Greece but to rescue the blind EU leaders who refuse to fail until it all blows up around them. You are then also happy with the huge amount of money that they waste and are happy with them increasing the budget yet again despite the current economic situation. The failure to produce a set of balanced accounts for 16 years also doesn't trouble you.
Or is the EU like communism, it sounds wonderful on paper but impossible to actually enact.

Noa.

An interesting and thoughtful analysis Fraser.

But how odd for the EU to produce a 'Trust' Graph. Odd too that the young appear to dislike the EU more than the more mature. No breakdown by country either.
As a matter of interest is there any further breakdown by nationality? As your previous analysis shows, support for the EU tends to be greatest in those hick countries like Roumania benefiting most from the EUs' largesse in dispensing German and UK contributions. Eurosceptism is almost as strong in Germany as it is in the UK. Both educated countries where the taxpayers know when they are being treated as milch cows.
Michael Portillo It Comparin

I'm obviously just thick

I have lived in Luxembourg, Belgium, Germany and the UK, have 2 masters degrees and 2 decades of professional working life.Throughout that time I have often seen the EU's machinery of power at first hand, know many of the 'elite' and have thought deeply about the effect of EU membership on the UK.

I would sign tomorrow the decree for the UK to leave the EU. I would further propose that Scotland leave the UK; all its politicians and commentators can go home to weave policies of EU suprastate membership and concomitant mass immigration north of the border.

wrinkled weasel

"the vast disconnect over Europe between the political elite and the masses"

It is ironic that us Eurosceptics have a lot in common with the sandal wearing smellies outside St Paul's.

Neither the Eurosceptics or the anti-capitalists or whatever they are, much like being ruled by people whose activities are above democracy.

But this is of no consequence. There is an agenda in Europe and this agenda is being followed regardless: If a country votes no, the country is asked to vote again until it gets it right (Ireland). Greece has defaulted on its debts, but for the purposes of the game and Credit Default Swaps being triggered, it has not defaulted. The British people have declared a preference for a referendum on the EU but we will not be allowed one in case the answer is again the wrong answer.

All in all we are fecked and there is nothing we can do.

Eurosceptic

"[P]erhaps the general punter is Eurosceptic because they don't give it much thought. Is an opinion born of study and analysis superior to a gut reaction?" I was Head of European Studies (the text books were very coy about ever closer union), speak five languages, have two first degrees, two masters degrees and an Institute of Linguists language qualification that is a degree equivalent. I'm still a Eurosceptic.

Nicholas

" . . . who saw Europe principally as a threat and a battleground and much preferred the "sensible" and "antural" option of invading other countries and adding them to the Empire – a direct consequence of which is today's high levels of immigration from former colonies."

Hmm. Is that really true? Or is it just a cosy, left wing view of the past designed to shape our present and our future in a particular way?

Hexhamgeezer

There is not 'a link between lack of education and Euroscepticism' but an indisputable link between a lack of education about the EU and Europhilia.

It is indisputable that increasing one's education on matters EU leads inevitably, if one is a democrat and/or an economist, to what is called Euroscepticism.

Those Eurobarometer statistics merely confirm that the longer one is 'in education' the less one is capable of engaging in the real world and one's only recourse is a career funded by EU institutions or 'public service' or a mindset formatted by EU sympathisers.

Ruby Duck

Well it's a "trust" graph, not an "in favour of graph", and as it happens, the EU is not trusted by a majority of those educated beyond the age of 20.

Dare we assume that the "still studying" group includes 12 yr olds ?

Boudicca

The average Brit may not be wonderfully clever, but they are savvy enough to know when they have
a) been lied to
and
b) taken for a ride
c) patronised

Our political elite have systematically lied to us over the EU. We were promised a Common Market with no loss of Sovereignty. We have been rammed into a political union, with massive loss of independence, and at every Treaty stage we have been lied to about the consequences of that Treaty.

We are contributing a massive sum of money; Blair handed back half of our rebate yet the CAP was never reformed and now, whilst we are cutting spending here the EU demands and gets more.

Our politicians don't represent US; they represent their Party Leader. Our system of Representative Democracy breaks down when our MPs don't represent our views and that is what has happened over the EU. Voter turnout has declined as our ability to run our own country has declined. We have our political elite to thank for that and no amount of trying to 'engage' with the public will work until we leave the political union with the EU and return to a Trade Only agreement.

To keep the pressure up, vote UKIP.

oldtimer

The EUrocracy is Animal Farm incarnate, run by pigs with their snouts in the trough. The UK would be better off out.

Matthew J

Where does leadership come in to this 'wisdom of the crowds' idea? The elite in charge of a country should also be its leaders. They should be able to argue and persuade a nation to change its collective opinion about something - or push it in a certain direction. Take slavery or the death penalty, both stopped in the face of public opinion but were good things. The problem with the EU is that politicians have stopped talking about it other than in the most simplistic terms. Where are its defenders now? Why aren't they setting out details arguments for it now? It's the lack of explanation and reason that is a problem as much as the actions of the elite. If political leaders want to be Europhiles, but the rest of the country is vaguely Eurosceptic, then they need to explain what they are doing rather than arrogantly dismissing the majority.

dorothy wilson

So eurosceptics are unthinking and uneducated are they?

Well, I've had a long-term connection with an international programme including a spell as European President. In 2008 our programme celebrated its 60th birthday together with the 50th anniversary of our annual European meetings. Those meetings are organised on a voluntary basis by our members in whichever country is acting as host in a particular year.

In the course of attending those meetings I have made friends across the continent, met politicians and ordinary people, been the chief guest at a reception given by the German President, walked round farms, climbed mountains, visited factories and much more besides. I regularly read the English language version of Der Spiegel. Just last week I was in Switzerland where I watched a political debate on German TV during which Helmut Kohl tried to blame the UK for the problems within the euro. He conveniently failed to mention his own part in overlooking warnings about Greece even before the single currency went "live".

Accordingly, it is difficult to see how I could be described as someone who does not understand Europe and the euro. Indeed it is because of the understanding I have that I am a very profound eurosceptic.

And it is totally incorrect to pretend euroscepticism is a British disease. This year our European meeting was in Finland. One evening one of the Finns came up to me and said: "We've just had a very profound discussion in the men's sauna [as good a place as any!] and do you know what we agreed? That the EU is just like the Soviet Union and one day it will collapse in just the same way."

Ian Walker

Personally, I am all for free trade and free movement. If fact, I'm even in favour of political union and (eventually) monetary union.

The problem I have is the institution of the EU itself. It's corrupt, bloated and unaccountable. And everyone knows it, but does nothing about it, which amplifies and perpetuates both the actuality and the perception.

Our politicians always tell us that the best way to achieve reform is from the inside. But then the reform never comes. And there is an alternative - set up a rival institution, and code fairness, equality and openness into it from the start.

Minnie Ovens

dorothy wilson
October 31st, 2011 10:29am

With regard to your comment about the Finn's attitude, a friend of mine has just returned from vacation where he had discussions on Europe with both Finns and Germans.
The Finns hated the EC with a passion whilst the Germans were becoming very concerned at Merkel's and her cohort's usage of their money for the EC.
It seems she is now painted into a corner since she will be out of office if she uses up more German money saving France again.
I must say it is ironic that the French have played the Germans like a violin for many years, concentrating on their guilt to extract more and more for themselves.
It's been an expensive joke on the Germans, although the exchange rate has really helped them.
No longer.

RocketDog

Fraser
To paraphrase Zoe's argument. You must be thick not to want the EU. Said nicely, but much the same thing. It is the same old argument and sooner or later I expect that we will all be sent for 're-education'

The simple fact of the matter is that the people of the country do not like the EU because we have to live with its ramifications. Those luxuriating in the Wesminster bubble are isolated from the worst of it and positioned to benefit from its esoteric promise

Iain

an excellent piece. When ministers are about to take a decision (in any sphere) which clearly has little or no public support over time, they must ask themselves whom they think they are representing? If the answer is, not the public, not the electorate, but another state, or a group like banks or arms dealers, they should change policy or resign. Alas, there are many policies just now which would not pass that test. As Fraser acknowledges, the public in aggregate are usually right.

RocketDog

Minnie Ovens
Was it Bismarck who said ' the nimble French rider on the heavy German horse?' Someone like that. About a century ago

dorothy wilson

Minnie: At our European meeting a couple of years ago one of our German members came up to me and said: "I'll come and spend my retirement in England if you promise to keep the pound."

As far as the comment from my Finnish friend is concerned, the group in the sauna would have been a multi-national one.

However, as you point out, Merkel seems to have found herself between the devil and the deep blue sea.

For an interesting in-depth analysis of the euro mess it is worth going to Der Spiegel On-line/Europe and then an article posted on 10/7/2011 [date given in the American style] headed "The Ticking Time Bomb - What Options Are Left for the Common Currency".

That article actually contains the 3rd and 4th part of the analysis but there are links to the 1st and 2nd parts. Together they make an interesting read!

Simon Stephenson.

Just a reminder, Fraser, that Surowiecki referred to "The Wisdom of Crowds" (*) as relating to diverse collections of independently-minded individuals. British public opinion is most certainly not generated by independently-minded individuals - the vast majority of people form their opinions from what they consider they're expected to believe - so any attempt to suggest that it represents collective wisdom is fanciful.

*
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds

John Bowman

"Is an opinion born of study and analysis superior to a gut reaction?"

This assumes these opinionated souls are capable of study and analysis or indeed take the time to study and analyse.

I offer a few examples as evidence that either or both are unwise assumptions to make:

- wind power and solar - given UK climate (lack of consistent sunshine and wind) and abundant evidence from UK and other Countries with more experience - showing the inefficiency of this either in providing current or reducing CO2 emissions, it still remains the core of UK future energy policy.

- the euro, it was and still is the studied opinion of the majority of our opinionated betters, that the UK would be better off in the eurozone than outside. (True the shrill pro voices have fallen quiet due to unforeseen,to them, circumstances.)

- NHS, despite "reformation" by every government since 1950, and extraordinary quantities of cash hurled at it for 13 years by its creator and guardian angel, it has never worked and never will, yet the political elite still believe it is the best we can do.

- spending "cuts", despite every evidence to the contrary, that there are no actual cuts just a reduction in the budgeted increases in future years, and clear figures showing actual spending is up on previous years, and actual figures showing the budget deficit and national debt increasing, "studied" opinion and analysis still insists the Government is reducing spending.

And finally. Democracy is about the needs and wishes of the majority as expressed by them, not a few dictating to everyone what they think is "right" and imposing it regardless.

That has another name.

Hexhamgeezer

Fraser,

This seems the ideal time and place to explain why you are in favour of EU membership. Others can then explain why they are against.

Deal?

nottheboss

Oh, happy day - the day I first stumbled across the Spectator due to a link in a comment on a DT article today. And, that excellent Spectator article on today's euro project mess led me to this even better article. I had come to the same conclusion myself on the elites/masses issue, but you just can't beat the educated Brits when it comes down to articulating their thoughts, even when they're extolling the virtues of the less educated. The most unusual aspect of the article is that the author was able to see the value of mass opinion even when it does not coincide with his own opinion. In America, there is less respect for the opinions of elites, and that is particularly the case in the South, where I live.