The coming world oil order

RCE

Oh ho ho. Can't wait to see that one play out.

As Mark Steyn says, if you don't like the US hegemony, then fine; but you'll like what comes next even less.

mongoose

Doesn't China have any shale oil of its own?

Noa.

Thank you for that post James.

I assume that the UK and Europe will remain dependent on Arabian and Russian oil - and gas especially if Huhne has his way.

So the situation would worsen appreciably for the Sino-debtor European nations; an isolationist US would probably stand by in the event of an Iranian hegemony over the Arabian oil fields.

It would be interesting to see a similar analysis of the UK potential for 'tight' oil offered us an opportunity.

daniel maris

More from the Spectator Shale Gas Corporation? LOL

I think oil is going to be pretty irrelevant to energy within 10 years. Why? Four reasons:

1. Toyota's 1000 Km range electric battery for cars (at about 20% of the cost of current batteries).

2. Rossi's E Cat - a cold fusion device which reliable reports suggest is pumping out energy at a 6-1 ratio.

3. The decreasing cost of wind energy.

4. Use of methane production as a way of storing wind energy.

Verity

Mongoose ... China is colonising Africa for a reason. Not because they like African food or fashions.

TrevorsDen

'Toyota's 1000 Km range electric battery for cars (at about 20% of the cost of current batteries).'

Where does all the electricity come from to charge up all our electric cars?

Mike, Brighton

@Daniel Maris
1. Toyota's 1000 Km range electric battery for cars (at about 20% of the cost of current batteries).
> Where will the electricity come from? (H/T TrevorsDen) Presumably Rossi's energy catalayzer (see below)

2. Rossi's E Cat - a cold fusion device which reliable reports suggest is pumping out energy at a 6-1 ratio.
> I also have a perpetual motion engine in my shed and a sure scheme to change lead into gold. Do you want to invest?

3. The decreasing cost of wind energy.
> It's going to have to decrease a hell of a lot and given the need for oil or gas backup (when it's not windy), will never be competitive with gas or nuclear generated electricity.

4. Use of methane production as a way of storing wind energy.
> But methane is a terrible greenhouse gas. Think of all the polar bears you will be killing LOL

oldtimer

The fact that the USA both has abundant energy reserves and the enterprising culture needed to make the most of them is indeed significant. The development of shale gas extraction technology and its use is the latest manifestation of this. It is the reason why Gazprom is so anxious to rubbish the development of shale gas in Europe. It would be bad for Russian business. There are multiple, other vested interests trying to inhibit its development; this is obvious in the UK where the anti-shale gas lobby is well-organised and vocal.

In April 2011 the US Energy Information Administration (part of the US Dept of Energy) published an assessment of what it described as technically recoverable shale gas resources outside the USA.

The UK`s share was only 20tcf (trillion cubic feet) out of a total estimated 5670tcf; the USA added another 862tcf. These estimates excluded whatever other shale gas basins may exist in Russia, Indonesia and the Middle East.

Countries with significant potentially recoverable shale gas resources included China (1275tcf), Argentina (774tcf), South Africa (485tcf), Australia (396tcf), Libya (290tcf), Algeria (230tcf), Brazil (226tcf) and, in Europe, Poland (187tcf) and France (180tcf).

It is obvious that not all these deposits will be developed; it is also equally obvious that there are abundant world supplies of recoverable shale gas that will be developed and that will transform the world`s energy map and energy prices.

In the UK, it is to be expected that the coalition will muff its opportunity for eliminating gas imports.

Axstane

What a truly strange and deluded post Daniel Maris has made here. It casts doubt on his very sanity. I have observed that after some years socialists became deranged due the dichotomy between their political views and the real world observations that they endure. The older they become the more divorced from reality they become.

Back in the real world - South Africa produced oil from shale during WWII and, of course, pioneered the most successful oil-from-coal projects in the world. Large shale oil deposits are found in may countries and generally the larger the area the greater the shale deposits are so huge countries such as Canada, China, Russia Brazil, Australia and South Africa will have shale available as well as low-grade coals.

Noa.

Daniel

Rossi- no news there, Noa's cat too is pumping out energy at a similar ratio.

Justathought

The US could be self sufficient for its energy within the next few years at the rate they are ramping up their production of oil and natural gas. The supplies from friendly adjacent neighbours further adds to their energy security and national security.

China does have enough coal but this is polluting and a drag on their GDP so they have been buying around the world any energy resources that they can. The other issue for China is how to control the routes of its energy supplies. This was a problem for the US but new discoveries and technology at home have resolved this issue.

China's weakness lies to its western autonomous provence Xinjiang which has a Muslim- Uyghur community that seeks independence. Next door is Tibet which is another headache for China. 50% of China's energy will be coming through the disputed "East Turkestan" province originating beyond its borders throughout central Asia. Chin'a relations with its own Muslim community have been poor but yet their energy supplies are mainly passing through muslim countries. Interesting times!

PayDirt

Yergin, is this the guy who always predicts lower oil prices?

Baron

daniel, in less than ten years, we, and everyone else who abandoned coal extraction, will be converting coal to oil as never before, get ready for it, my blogging friend.

daniel maris

Trevors Den -

Wind energy (but also other renewables) are perfect for charging car batteries, especially if you have battery exchangers.

daniel maris

Baron -

I think that within 10 years, we will probably see cold fusion replacing nearly all other forms of power generation. There will be less and less demand for coal and oil.

daniel maris

Noa -

Google on E cat world or E cat news - you'll find plenty is happening. Battle is raging. Rossi is claiming to have sold more E cats. The equipment is due now to be tested by both Bologna and Uppsala Unis - both v. prestigious establishments. The independent engineer who oversaw the 29th October test appears to be connected with NATO.

The more I read into the background (lots of genuine experimentation by Focardi and Levi prior to Rossi coming on the scene) the more I feel it is genuine.

daniel maris

Mike, Brighton -

1. The E cat is based on several experiments which were reproduced at CERN. It isn't a perpetual motion machine. If it was then a nuclear fission reactor would be as well.

2. Teh cost of getting oil and gas out of the ground has been steadily rising. I am confident (as most analysts are) that the cost of wind energy will continue to fall.

3. You really don't understand that wind energy used to manufacture methane from water and air is essentially carbon neutral (i.e.you take the carbon from the carbon dioxide in the air and then it returns to the air when the methane is burnt).

daniel maris

Axstane - The South African oil from coal project was one of the most expensive ways of getting energy into a moving vehicle that anyone could devise. The plant was incredibly polluting as well. If you can't debate in a civilised fashion, why not try a kebab shop in Newcastle on a Saturday night rather than this forum.