Uncertainty reigns over Europe

Vulture

In contrast to James Chapman, Pete, you seem to regard the impending unravelling of the Euro project as a disaster, whereas in reality it is not only the least bad, but the best thing that can happen, both for Greece and for the rest of us.

Better, surely to have a painful ending than pain without end.

My only fear is that the Eurocrats will find a way to stop Greece fulfilling her necessary destiny and postponing the inevitable.

And, as an aficionado of the military coup I say : bring it on. Let the good tanks roll.

It's only a pity that we can't have one here.

2trueblue

Irresponsible to allow Greece to join the euro. They did not meet the criterior but the Germans and French were desperate to 'grow' the area.

Dave B

This is really a bank bailout, not a Greece bailout anyway. Let the shareholders take the hit.

Salopian

2trueblue - well yes I guess we've all come to that conclusion (a zillion years ago) but that fact doesn't take us much further does it?

I'm not so pessimistic about the referendum in Greece - PROVIDED
1- the Greek Government survives that long
2- Merkel and Sarko keep very very quiet and don't stoke the flames and accept the notion that the populace has a right to a view (not so easy for those two given the way they stuffed the Irish referendum on Lisbon)
3- The Greek government spells out the consequences for Greeceof a NO vote. (no point in talking about the consequences for the Eurozone - the Greeks couldn't give an olive for that).

The last of these provisos is doable - but is Papa the right man to do it?
3-

Rhoda Klapp

Seems to me it is the German people who need a referendum on this one. They are the ones who will be paying.

Nicholas Hallam

It's always dangerous for politicians to give the people a say. It is possible though that the Greek people have grasped what their politicians have clearly failed to do - namely, that Greece has no future in the Eurozone.

Publius

Looks like Papandreou isn't going to survive his confidence vote.

Robert Eve

We should be cheering the Greek PM to the roof tops.

Herbert Thornton

Rhoda Klapp - I hope you're right, but with Cameron in charge in Britain, I fear you may be mistaken.

Publius

I suspect there is a concerted effort going on behind the scenes on the part of the Eurocrats to deny the Greeks their vote. They will bring Papandreou down. The Anschluss is almost complete.

Ed P

Herbert T - the problem is that Cameron is NOT in charge in Britain - like other countries bound up in this Euro-nightmare, he (& we) have no real powers to make decisions any more. It's rather wonderful that Greece, the seat of democracy, is proposing a truly democratic move which frightens the unelected, unaccountable Euro-Fuehrers.

Austin Barry

The wartime German occupation of Greece led, in part, to the destruction of the country's economy and infrastructure and the great winter famine of 1941-42 when an estimated 300,000 people died in greater Athens alone.

At the risk of cutting off their noses etc. this may be the long awaited payback time for the Greeks, a perfect opportunity to undermine the whole misconceived, undemocratic Germanic edifice of the Eurozone.

As the old Roman historian Tacitus put it: “Gratitude is a burden, revenge a pleasure.”

Justathought

The Greek PM can't lose here. This call for a referendum comes closely on the heels of the Greeks receipt of latest installment of the EU bailout. He will regain some credibility with the voters and at the same time throws the opposition into disarray. Off course this also blind-sides his EU colleagues who had not considered this scenario.

We were told last week that the reason for the 3 line whip was that we didn't want to stir up trouble during negotiations over the bailout which looks a bit silly now.

It seems that the Greek PM has set a precedent.

Let's face it Greece is in default no matter how you dice and slice it and it looks like the bondholder's haircut will be 100% triggering all sorts of mayhem around the globe.

The Chinese will not want to be seen bailing out over paid public sector workers who retire at 50 and and EU welfare claimants who receive more in a week than millions of Chinese receive in a year. Still no harm in the communist putting out a few soothing statements and underscores their new status.

Hexhamgeezer

Surely it's referenda as they will get the result wrong 1st time round.

Liz Brown

I'm wiping the tears of laughter from my face..........the outrage of our unelected leaders is wonderful to behold. How dare papendreou promise to hold a referendum that hasn't been agreed with the all powerful that they can neither control nor overlook. I am sure that they are striving to find all sorts of arguments as to why he shouldn't.
Whatever happens, catastrophe beckons but it really is all too funny..........

Nickle

1. The Greeks are up Shit Creek.

2. I'm a poet and don't know it.

What I also find funny is the statement from EU leaders that the Greeks carry on cutting spending. Yep, that's the plan. They plan on cutting spending on debt payments.

Axstane

Sometimes it is best to declare bankruptcy and start all over again. Greece is clearly unable to meet its loan agreements and has no assets worth a damn, no mineral resources, no oil. The country is bankrupt and no amount of scheming by the French, Germans and EU Commissioners will alter the fact.

Obviously it will be a long hard way back for the Greeks and no doubt we shall see the cycle of Communists followed by Colonels and we in the UK must resolve to keep out of their affairs and to encourage Turkey to keep out as well.

Banks will go down and every country in Europe and many elsewhere will suffer before this massive correction stabilises. Perhaps, just perhaps, it may teach politicians and bankers not to play fantasy football with nations, national finances and investors money.

Nobody should take joy from this, the ruination of the EU and the Euro but like the end of every Empire the world goes on, painfully changed but hopefully.

In my own lifetime I have seen the end of the British Empire and those of Japan, Russia, Italy, Germany, France, Belgium, Portugal and Holland. Earth Abides.

oldtimer

This referendum is a welcome and necessary development. Papandreou found himself between a rock and a hard place; this was his only means of escape, short of resigning. I await with interest to hear the Brussels propaganda on this referendum. Chances of a disorderly default must now have increased.

Verity

Vulture - Endorse every word.

john gerard

The Greek people must vote no. Just as the Irish and Portuguese should have told them to "shove it" with their bailouts. The best thing that can happen for Greece is that it leaves the Euro, defaults, and starts again with the Drachma. The Euro cannot survive in the format it is currently in. It's a joke. Get rid of all the southern Euro nations and other basket cases, and then you'd have a currency worth going long with, and the Chinese would think it worth investing in. As it is now, the Chinese are NOT going to invest anything other than nominal amounts (if at all) until they see how this shakes out.

Mirtha Tidville

I would truely have paid almost anything to see the look on the faces of Sarko/Merkel and especially our Maoist friend Comrade Barroso when this little bomb was dropped.....

Papa is clearly no fool and realises that returning to the Drachma is the only real option, longterm, for his country and his people. This way being the only way to achieve it. I wish him the very best of luck.

David L

The game's well and truly afoot now. And the cat's among the pigeons. And the aordure's just hit the fan. Lord knows how this is going to play out; but talk of military coups seems to me to be fanciful. The Greek army would be signng its own death warrant if it were to walk in and try to take over this mess. Either Papandreou hopes to screw more dosh out of his Eurozone "partners", or he has guessed that the majority of his people will reluctantly accept the austerity package rather than the risk of total collapse. If the EU tries to bully the Greeks into supporting the package, the result will be a very loud "no". In the meantime, beware the Greeks bearing gilts!

Vulture

It is now clear that the Eurocrats have moved smartish to cut the strings of their puppet Papandreou who dared to revolt against their edict and pulled the rug from under his Govt which will collapse this very day.
So forget the referendum, folks.
Europe's democracy has just officially died in the land that gave it birth.

Not that this will save the Euro. Next stop for the Euro hearse: Italy. You ain't seen nothing yet, folks.

Russell

Wouldn't it be a kick in the teeth for Labour if Cameron called for a referendum when the EU asks for increased contributions from the UK and Germany and France (I think all the other EU countries are net beneficiaries).
The LibDems would have to support this in view of all their policy statements over the last 3 years.

Perhaps the EU (mainly France) would then allow the UK to change anything it wants in our terms of membership.
The EU depends on the UK for their exports and for the funding of the EU.

dorothy wilson

This crystalises the dichomony at the heart of the EU in general and the euro in particular: the measures necessary for them to survive are simply unacceptable to the people.

In essence, the choice is between safeguarding democracy or saving the single currency. Unfortunately, whichever way the decision goes the result will herald a great deal of pain and a period of great danger.

Cynic

"[T]here is still something alarming about his announcement, last night, of a national referendum on Greece's bailout" What's alarming about giving people a say in what happens to them? There's too much of this "shut up and take it because we know best" attitude in politics today.

David Lindsay

Back to where it all began. And this time, women can vote, while there are no slaves to disenfranchise. Christianity overthrew a greater civilisation, says Boris Johnson, a recently extracted Ottoman aristocrat who has publicly recited the Shahada in Arabic. Actually, Christianity did not overthrow Hellenism at all.

Unless, as in Ireland, they are constitutionally obliged to have them, governments only ever call referendums when they know that they will get the answer that they want, or at least an answer that they can live with (Harold Wilson and Europe, Jim Callaghan and devolution).

Although there were other things going on, losing a referendum on changing the composition of the revising chamber and the powers of regional councils was enough to bring down even General de Gaulle.

I think that we all know what the result of this one is going to be. And so does the Greek Government. The question is what happens after that. Especially in Germany.

Herbert Thornton

Russell (November 1st, 3:40pm)

"Wouldn't it be a kick in the teeth for Labour if Cameron called for a referendum when the EU asks for increased contributions from the UK and Germany and France....."

Yes, it would look - on the surface - like a kick in the teeth. And not just for for Labour but for most of the rest of British MPs too. But it would be only a very gentle and simulated kick, because even if he did "call" for a referendum nobody could believe that he really meant it.

And even if he then did actually call one it would be a pseudo referendum. It would be a poll that was deceitful, meaningless, and certainly not intended to be acted on unless Cameron agreed with its result. I suggest a new word for it - a Camerendum.

It would be the laugh of the year too. In a sick sort of way.

Would the EU (mainly France) then allow the UK to change anything it wants in our terms of membership? What? With Cameron making the demands? That would need Maggie Thatcher.

David Lindsay

Herbert Thornton, would that be the Maggie Thatcher who signed the Single European Act?

Herbert Thornton

David Lindsay (Nov 1st 6:26pm) -

Yes it would. The same Maggie Thatcher who demanded and got the huge European rebate Tony Blair later threw away.

Baron

Well, it’s an EU hell if the Zorbas say yes, a Drachma hell if the say no, we haven’t been here before, nothing in the past remotely compares to a partial demolition of a currency if the answer’s negative.

Weird as it may seem, Baron reckons that if the referendum goes ahead, the Greeks will plump for the affirmative on the EU package, if they go for the sovereign Drachma, they’ll starve more than if they kept the Euro, in the former case, they themselves will have to provide, in the latter, it's also the Germans who'll chip in.

Herbert Thornton

David Lindsay (Nov. 1st 6:26pm) -

Also I suggest you refer back to Margaret Thatcher's Bruges Speech of September 20th 1988.

Dimoto

Good move by Pappa, he can't really lose.

1) He dips out (loses power), as the democratic hero, thus preserving his dynasty's prestige.

or
2) He wins backing, strengthening his hand for austerity at home, and playing hardball with the Merkel witch.

or
3) The house of cards comes down, Papa says the "Greek people have spoken" (blaming them for default and rebuilding from scratch).

As for Pete Hoskins' fancy on China, fresh back from Beijing, I can tell you that there is a growing resentment amongst the (aware) citizenry, and within the government at the hideous thought of China bunging their very hard-earned savings at the Euro-farrago.
At the very least the Chinese would insist on "very adequate" recompense, which includes a whole raft of euro-market opening measures.

Clear Memories

Well, the Greek leader has called for a referendum rather than accept what the Krauts have tried to stuff down his throat. And the Brussels Stalinists are outraged! The thought of ‘ordinary’ people having a say! How dare he?

Well, he dares, because he had to sack the Generals in a (possibly) vain attempt to stop the Army taking over.

So that’s what we’ve come to. The EU was sold to Europe as a means to ensure 1914-18 and 39-45 were never again repeated. All the fine words have led us to a virtual economic collapse across the region, Greece facing a coup d’etat, Italy and Spain about to collapse and the Germans, yet again, shouting the odds whilst the French cower in the corner wating for someone to save the day.

Well, fuck ‘em. We’ve saved Europe twice in the last hundred years. Let the arseholes scrap amongst themselves, leave us out of it this time. We have the Commonwealth, when the black one is kicked out of the White House, we can renew that friendship (and not until), the Canadians are set to become very oil-rich, we are set to become very gas-rich (all the greenies can frack off), India is still a mate and China has forgiven us for the opium wars (since we gave them honkers back).

So we’re well set to face the world, we don’t need that shithole across the channel that is Europe, we can and should stand on our own two feet. So, come on Cameron, show some Greek guts and give us our referendum – I might even come back and vote!