Renegotiation reality

TomTom

Cameron will be fired when City funders react to the Tobin Tax. Read Der Spiegel - Camerons Berlin-Besuch
Deutschlands Dominanz, Britanniens Angst

Cameron is seen as a Visiting Spiv from an island of Spivs - Flash Harry Kingdom

salieri

"a choice between staying in an EU that reforms.... or to pull out entirely.."

A specious dilemma in both respects.

First, what evidence is there that there is any prospect whatever of 'reform'?

Second, why does the EU nomenklatura always speak in all-or-nothing terms?

These are rhetorical questions: the answers are obvious.

Dave B

They did not want to help nice Mr Major. He just stuck to his guns.

There was a post Maastrict photo of the EU heads of government, where Mr Major was clearly isolated from the group.

Andy H

It amazes me that we always start these conversations from the point of view that we will renegotiate things back, which gives the sense that the natural right is that these things are for the EU to decide, and these are exceptions.

This one fact only goes to show that the mind set of these professional politicians is completely wrong.

If only they had achieved something else in life, other then being a SPAD, then maybe we would approach this in the right way.

If they went with the view that these items of sovereign decision making were the rights of the British then at least this would be a good starting point.

In short, it is about time we had some patriotic representatives for a change.

Sean Haffey

My wife and I have been married not quite as long as Britain has been in the EU.

When we disagree on something we don't threaten a divorce unless we get our way. We talk to each other and find something we can both settle for.

It's absurd to assume that Britain's relationship with the EU must be binary. Negotiation is always an option - and generally a better option than meekily accepting the status quo or leaving.

Vulture

Moving in the rarefied bubble of think tanks and briefings from EU officials that you do, DK, you are certainly as unaware as they are of the reality outside that cosy little world.

The EU is sinking! The iceberg has hit and its every man for the lifeboats. Next year sees the anniversary of the sinking of the Titanic. A wholly appropriate metaphor for the EU's fate.

Your boys (and girl) are holed below the waterline and what Dave says or does is of absolutely no consequence. The ship is going down and will take him with it.

Gawain

I agree with this, the EU is too inflexible to react to the world as it actually is, Cameron is likely to be dissappointed and we are better off out.

Y Rhyfelwr Dewr

Cameron has already run up so many expectations that I doubt a niggardly little repatriation will be satisfactory.

After the disappointment of his cast-iron guarantee (how he must regret writing those words!), his manifesto commitments to repatriate substantial powers, his subsequent opt-ins into wide areas of Euro legislation, his participation in the Euro bail-outs, his refusal to exploit first-class opportunities for childishly naive ideals, his ham-fisted attempt to shut down the referendum debate -- these are all such sins in the Eurosceptic book that he will have to drag some pretty big rabbits out of the Euro hat to earn their forgiveness.

Achieving little and then boasting about it could be counter-productive. As with the budget negotiations last year (when he manifestly failed to win a 0% increase, but returned home declaring "a triumph"), any effort at publicising a minuscule success is likely to be seen as pathetic.

dorothy wilson

"The disagreement between Germany and Britain could soon turn into a personal issue between Merkel and Cameron, when the latter heads to Berlin for consultations with the chancellor. And Merkel has clear demands for the UK: She wants London to refrain from blocking the planned reform of the EU treaties and to go along with the financial transaction tax."

Quote from an article on Der Spiegel Online.

James

"When we disagree on something we don't threaten a divorce unless we get our way. We talk to each other and find something we can both settle for."

Can I assume that you both had a say in whether or not to get married?

Personally, I don't recall ever being asked if I wanted to stay in this loveless marriage of inconvenience - much like millions of other Britons, I reckon.

Peter From Maidstone

Sean, membership of the EU is not like a marriage at all. And if your wife treated you as the EU treats its members then few would criticise you for seeking a divorce.

Why is negotiation a better option when there is no prospect at all of achieving what our national sovereignty demands?

Would you have negotiated with Hitler and found something that you could both settle for? The invasion of the Sudetenland perhaps? The Anschluss? Is the invasion of Poland really such a big deal?

Ian Walker

The EU is 17 wolves and 10 sheep voting over dinner. Then ignoring the result of the vote.

Sean Haffey

Peter from Maidstone:

There's a lot about the EU that needs fixing. I could make a list; so could you; so could probably everyone reading this blog. And if we had a look at those lists we could probably quite easily come up with a short list of high priority items. And if we did that, we'd have a basis for negotiation.

Now, I'm not seeing anyone do that. If we have not engaged in negotiations about what really matters to the UK, then I can't agree that they are futile.

For example, I'd like to see commitment to the EU getting its accounts signed off by auditors. I think it's 17 years on the trot that the auditors have refused to sign them. Are we negotiating about that?

Occasional Ostrich

Dave B 17th, 9:45am

"There was a post Maastrict photo ..."

Knickers!

A photo is a fraction of a second in time. Photographers take tens, nay hundreds, at every photocall, and then picture editors select the ones that reflect the thrust of the associated stories. A hundredth of a second later you could have a photo showing "Mr. Major's close engagement with other European leaders".

Chris

@sean haffey
"For example, I'd like to see commitment to the EU getting its accounts signed off by auditors. I think it's 17 years on the trot that the auditors have refused to sign them. Are we negotiating about that?"

This isn't actually true (like the famous imaginary 100,000 petitioners). Why base your opinions on made up pseudo facts?

Here's the link http://ec.europa.eu/commission_2010-2014/semeta/headlines/news/2010/11/20101109_en.htm

Meanwhile - ask yourself why the British government has never, in any way shape or form, had its accounts audited.

graham

We signed up to the EEC - a pretty basic trading network not this monster of an organisation, the EU is today. The EU is in a mess & will never change. I doubt that our departure will dent our exports to EU members & in any event we should look to the East & the US for our exports. We should pull out of the EU asap.

MArk

seeing as the eurocrate are so terrified of referenda, perhaps the way to get what you want is rather than negotiate for *some* repatriation with no stick to back it up, tell them that we want X Y Z, or it's an in/out referendum.

Your call.

Paul Danon

The acquis communautaire prevents repatriation. Denmark, Latvia and Lithuania are in the ERM and, so, de facto euro-countries. Any treaty which repatriated power to us would be vetoed. If the 17 try to make treaties without us, we can challenge their actions legally. We can veto any treaty which makes things even worse. However, article 50 is the way forward.

Sean Haffey

Chris

I was sure I was right, but can't find a source to support the claim. Thanks for the correction.

The bigger point remains: I'd like to see active negotiation to address things we aren't happy about

EC

Nigel Farage's response to David Cameron's Mansion House Speech

A Tale of Two Treaties:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jWwrZwVTTgk

We can opt out of Rome/Libson treaty but still keep our EEA Free Trade deal - save money and get our country back. Is there a downside?

Sui Juris

"...ask yourself why the British government has never, in any way shape or form, had its accounts audited"

I think that's probably an exaggeration: there are plenty of equivalent procedures, though no audit, in the strict sense, I agree.

The reason is pretty obvious - it's because our elected representatives have complete control over taxation, and if they disapprove of how the government spends it, or don't like the government for any other reason, our elected representatives can throw out the government. The same is not so true with the EU.

As for repatriating powers, we should also start with financial ones. Stop signing the cheques.

If our contributions to the EU's finances are really so little regarded as Daniel Korski implies, then we would at least have the money back. If, as I suspect, the power of the purse retains its influence (wherever authority technically lies, in reality the money is needed) then we have a lever to get the repatriations we would rather have.

Vague noises about witholding money, like vague noises about wanting repatriations, will not do. European leaders, like British eurosceptics, give little credibility to vaguely eurosceptic British leaders any more. A credible threat is what is needed. Delay the next EU budget payment by a day or so - and if they really don't care, delay it indefinitely.

Salopian

'Poland wants to join the Euro" ? Does it? It may well have done so in the past. But now? Poland's economy is a success story: are they really likely to want to get involved the current mess?

As for the Nordic countries - they may well not want to sup with Cameron at the sceptics table - but neither are they showing any support for the possibility of a Euro Caucus running the Eu.

Cameron's problem is the club of Gang of 80. Without them he would be able to meet Merkel on a much less strident footing with commensurately greater chance of success.

If the gang too dim to see this (and heaven knows there's some rreal turkeys amongst them then he has to face them down.

What can they do? Make a lot of noise - but would they rock the government? Would thy really risk an early election? Do they really believe that the Tories would get back in - especailly before the boundary are changed? Turkeys they are and turkeys don't for Christmas.

So cool the rhetoric Dave and you may get what you want.

Publius

"the biggest being a choice between staying in an EU that reforms but not as quickly or as dramatically as parts of the Tory party wants; or to pull out entirely from the EU."

No, DK, this is not the choice, and it is a dishonest piece of rhetoric for you to suggest it is.

The only reform on offer is ever-closer union to towards the superstate. The only change is that this must now be speeded up, even at the cost of democratic legitimacy.

And what his now obvious is that such a course is the last throw of a crazed gambler's dice.

Once again "progress" is being forced upon us without clear thought and without proper regard to the inevitable consequences.

Michael

I note that the Telegraph reports this morning the 'shock' resignation of the IMF's European Boss. One assumes that his new French Mistress has attempted to force him to do more to save La Belle France, and he's having none of it.

michael

Renegotiate repatriate reinterpret refashion.
...What powers exactly?
...Huh, as I thought, yet more Esperanto.

Dennis Churchill

I’m having a lot of problems posting. Is there a block on anything with: “Credible and official Cost Benefit Analyses”?

Dennis Churchill

What we need, and what we have always lacked, is an official and creditable cost benefit analyses of our membership.
Other than the ideologues the general public are only interested in the bottom line.
Politicians don’t negotiate like businessmen aiming to get to a win win but rather a Versailles situation of grinding one side down. These deals don’t hold, which is why businessmen don’t go in for them. The UK gave too much away and has continued to do so.
The EU is changing into a Franco-German dominated federation. This will never suit the UK who culturally and politically differ much more than other European nations with the culture of these two countries.
Get it over with. A cost benefit analyses followed by a referendum on our continued membership is the only sensible way forward. I’m sure the EU would continue to pay the pensions of the Britons already receiving them.

Dimoto

I wouldn't expect Cameron to get much in the way of opt-outs, I hope he concentrates on the important areas, which are nearly all economic/social - and not the token claptrap agenda of the headbangers.

It is fascinating how the German media portray Britain - such hostility, and for why ?
I guess the German psychology can't handle our forever disruptive/subversive style, perhaps that's why their democracy has such fragile and shallow roots.

The German press tends to be supportive and respectful of their government, even when they have differences, and hubristic cheer-leading for their "all conquering economy", tends to dominate.
They seem very pleased with themselves.

By contrast, our media is scurillous in the extreme, anti-authority, relentlessly spreading fear, loathing, and pessimism.
Any misrepresentation or self-deprecation, as long as it further damages public confidence, is seized on - and how Labour have learned to exploit this.

I have worked in European companies where the managers of the Brit operations take a perverse relish in mocking, tricking, and subverting the mainstream strategy of the company.
After a while, the Brit operations were just considered a bunch of cowboys and gradually excluded from all decision making and discussions.

Something similar seems to have happened in the EU.

Cameron and Osborne should forget the megaphone jeering and unwanted advice to Merkozy, and negotiate rationally, reasonably and quietly.

It is our national interest at stake, and the German-French condominium can inflict heavy damage on our prospects.

Wily Trout

Presumably both Merkel and Sarkozy understand that Cameron has to bluster to appease his own national audience. They have to do it themselves.

nonny mouse

>>Forget the money that the UK pays into the EU.

Quite the opposite. I say we should follow the money.

As Redwood said, the CAP/industrial/regional budgets make up two thirds of our EU contribution. It is hard to justify our membership of the CAP (+fisheries) because we pay more. Regional policy should belong to the Eurozone, not EU-27. If we got those back we could hand back our rebate and Europe would get something they have wanted for decades.

I think that Clegg is the biggest obstacle to meaningful repatriation anyway. He accepts the line that we need a 'rebalancing' of powers.

I suspect that might include some social chapter red tape, which Clegg could justify to his party on economic grounds - i.e. it creates jobs.

I think that there could be a deal to be done.

Some social chapter + some budget savings by leaving expensive programs would be a sellable deal for Cameron. Some Tories won't be happy without leaving but the majority will accept something along these lines.

I would add in a return of vetos in some areas to prevent the Euro-17 forcing policies on EU-27 countries.

JohnPage

Daniel has missed the point that the feasibility of Cameron's proposal (entirely impractical, of course) is wholly irrelevant to his purpose, which is political.

The aim of the speech was to wrap himself in the "eurosceptic" flag, to say to the sceptics, "look, I am one of you".

It is all sound and fury signifying nothing, and sceptics will know that.

Y Rhyfelwr Dewr

Chris @ 10.40:"ask yourself why the British government has never, in any way shape or form, had its accounts audited."

It does -- annually.

And it is absolutely true that the EU's accounts have not been signed off in seventeen years, although the EU is at least sufficiently embarrassed that it is trying to do something about it -- even if that amounts to nothing more than tortuous efforts to explain how it black is white and the auditors' condemnation actually constitutes approval.

Never the less, there is no getting around the auditors' conclusion that the EU's 2010 accounts are -- and I am quoting them here -- "still affected by material error"; "supervisory and control systems are partially effective"; "Agriculture and Natural Resources and Cohesion, Energy and Transport are materially affected by error".

http://www.taxpayersalliance.com/eu/2011/11/eus-accounts-signed.html

Do you not think that you owe an apology to that other commenter that you criticised for not getting his facts straight?

General Zod

TomTom, unlike you, I speak German (there is no way you could have read the article and posted such rubbish). The article says nothing of the sort.

The final paragraph:

"Cameron ist dennoch in der schwierigeren Position. Er kann ihr den Wunsch kaum abschlagen, weil Großbritannien ein Interesse an einer funktionierenden Euro-Zone hat. Die Frage ist, ob Merkel ihm auch entgegenkommt - etwa durch einen Verzicht auf die Finanztransaktionssteuer."

"Cameron is, however, in the more difficult position. He can hardly deny her wishes, given that Britain has an interest in maintaining a functioning Eurozone. The question is whether Merkel will for her part accommodate him - perhaps by giving up the financial transactions tax."

Jonathan Woolf

It is good to see a Eurofanatic finally admit that the hoary old myth "if we are in it we can influence it", which has been used for decades to justify remaining in, and becoming a Brussels colony, is rubbish.

I agree with Daniel. There is no EU third way available because the EU won't change to suit us. In fact, the EU elite is now trying to put the finishing touches to full political union. We might regret it, but the question is starkly binary. In or out.
Remain a colony of a continent in demographic and economic decline, which is wilfully condemning itself to depression and German tutelage, or free ourselves politically and economically and get back out in the big wide world on our own two feet.

D. Singh

Sir

Now that the elected Greek and Italian prime ministers have been replaced by eurocrats – signalling the beginning of the end of democracies in the EU – the number of people who need to leave the EU has multiplied overnight: the British; the Jews and practising Christians.

Thucydides

Chris correctly points out that it is inaccurate to say that the EU's accounts have not been signed off, but then makes the bizarre claim that the British government has never had its accounts audited.

William Blakes Ghost

So once again the line from German led Europe and its quisling stooges is 'My way or the highway'. Its seems Germany and its stooges never really changed. How often has it been Germany's attitude over the last 150 years?

So its looks like we've got a long trek in front of us down that highway otherwise it will be 'Deutschland Deutschland, uber alles' all the way and over the centrueis we have expended too much blood and treasure to ever let that happen.....

Publius

@Denis Churchill
"...the general public are only interested in the bottom line."

Somewhat philistine, if I may say so. Should we also subject liberty to a cost-benefit analysis? Is all human dignity reducible to price?

Publius

@General Zod
""Cameron is, however, in the more difficult position. He can hardly deny her wishes, given that Britain has an interest in maintaining a functioning Eurozone. The question is whether Merkel will for her part accommodate him - perhaps by giving up the financial transactions tax."

A classic. So Germany demands something of us. Then if it agrees to give up on that demand, that is interpreted as a concession.

Alas, I wouldn't put it past Cameron to spin this tripe as a concession/victory/triumph.

teledu

What's Cameron to do? How can he resolve this dilemma?
Well, why the @@@k doesn't he let the people decide? Have a referendum. Democracy - give it a try.

Hexhamgeezer

The worst opening 3 sentences I've seen.

Are you using a randomcut'n'pastethinktanknebulogenerator?

Sean O'Hare

@Chris November 17th 2011 10:40am

Would they be the same auditors who gave European banks a clean bill of health not so long ago?

Ghengis

Mr Korski and his ilk recommend maintaining a market for British exports (alleged 30%) in spite of the fact of its shrinkage due to the fact of the purchasers becoming bankrupt. Not a recommended business practice.

London Calling

Its way pass the point of being accused of being sceptical…the facts speak for themselves…whatever the UK does, it must do so quietly, rewards for solutions only exposes your possible options allowing the opposition to counteract…

In the words of Lord Judge to the EU/ECHR two days ago…Don’t push your luck…

Lord Chief Justice 'fears EU may stop our judges defying Strasbourg'

Read more:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2062029/Lord-Chief-Justice-tells-ECHR-dont-push-luck-new-rights-showdown.html#ixzz1dz7jRYmD

London Calling

PS

I thought Cameron’s Australian accent was quite good…made me laugh…:)

London Calling

PPS

Comments do not appear automatically…

TomTom

The German press is having a good laugh at Cameron and posting some very amusing photos of him with captions about German Dominance and British Anxiety

Heartless P.

The government says it can get everything it wants – … – but the reality is different

Thus we glimpse the phantasmic Bliarist cum EUSSR world that the H2B inhabits, separated from sense or reality.

What a ghastly little accumulation to nominally lead this once great land.

Cynic

"In his speech at the Lord Mayor's Banquet, the Prime Minister argued that he could both change Britain's relationship with the EU but remain inside the 27-member bloc." Meanwhile back in the real world, we know he's delusional. Thanks to acquis communautaire there is no chance we'll repatriate any powers. In addition, we are one against twenty-six to push through any reforms. They want our money and our markets but they don't want us to have any say. The only way to save the UK is to pull out of the EU and re-establish a trade agreement, which the Lisbon Treaty allows us to do.

Cynic

I think, Dimoto, that you have just pointed out the essential fact that the British are not European in culture or attitude. They don't understand us and we are not like them - and I say this from the perspective of having many European friends of different nationalities and speaking several European languages.

Ruby Duck

@TomTom 6:01 pm

I expect there were a fair few laughs in Germany about Chamberlain in 1938, too.

terence patrick hewett

As a German colleague of mine said to me when the Berlin Wall came down:

"third time lucky limey, third time lucky"