Will New Labour survive a general election defeat?
James Forsyth 3:38pm
Let’s assume that, as currently seems likely, the Labour party loses the next election by a fairly substantial margin. The question then is does Labour conclude that the best route back to power is trying to knock the Tories off the centre ground or tacking to the left.
As Matt notes, the temptation for a party after a heavy defeat is always to return to its ideological comfort zone—to imagine that a dose of the old religion will win back the public rather than just re-energising the faithful. Indeed, already the vast majority of prescriptions for how Brown can get back on track involve a significant shift leftward, a let Labour be Labour strategy. (Two honourable exceptions to this are Denis MacShane’s Telegraph piece urging the government to cut tax and spending and the article by Benjamin Wegg-Prosser, the former Mandelson and Blair staffer, in this week’s magazine.)
If Labour do decide to cast off the shackles of New Labour then that is good news for the Tories as I suspect that the public is not crying out for reheated socialism. It’s also why that the next leader of the party—if Brown makes it through to the election—is unlikely to come from the Blairite wing of the party. The 14 to 1 on Jon Cruddas looks increasingly attractive.
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Comments
Alex R
May 29th, 2008 4:25pmJust out of interest, who would you staff the shadow cabinet with if Cruddas were to win?
Is there enough of a sensible left wing of the party there to do so?
David C
May 29th, 2008 4:27pmOld Labour took 16 years to die and it could never scrape together more than two dog-eared terms. By any lights, nu-Labour is actually a roaring success.
But Labour has a capacity for self-destruction that is the envy of suicide bombers planet-wide, so when they depart the wrack that is my country I don't expect them to wheel out a redesigned, freshly polished bandwagon called nu-Labour II after a couple of years.
Take that as a 'No'.
Chris Clark
May 29th, 2008 4:28pm"the temptation for a party after a heavy defeat is always to return to its ideological comfort zone"
I would say that the REALITY of a heavy defeat is a return to the ideological comfort zone. When you have just lost 100-150 MPs, the likelyhood is that those remaining will be from the Labour heartlands and, accordingly, be of a more old labour persuasion. The PPL will return to its old ways before any mention of comeback strategy is even mentioned.
The same goes (and went) for the Tory party.
Water
May 29th, 2008 4:29pmHelping the Labour party isn’t something high on the list of agendas for most Spec readers I’m sure. This is something they will have to figure out for themselves if they're to be worthy of the electorates grace.
David Lindsay
May 29th, 2008 4:44pmIt depends what you mean. New Labour would be alive and well in the Downing Street of David Cameron and George Osborne. That's what they are for.
Nicholas
May 29th, 2008 5:43pmI don't think New Labour's cloaking device will work a second time and their real agenda belongs to another time and another place (East Germany, circa 1960).
The Tetonic plates of politics are already moving and a poster over at Guido's place made an interesting observation about the redundancy of Labour in post-industrial Britain and the potential for a return to Regency & Victorian Whig vs Tory politics. I should like to see a LibDem vs Tory dynamic with Labour relegated to the barmy, minority party they deserve to be, but de-toxifying the public services, schools, local government and police of the horrible Labour contamination is going to be difficult.
Come on, David. Give it a rest. Got the message. Don't believe it.
Verity
May 29th, 2008 6:57pm6:57 p.m. Second time of submitting: I agree with David Lindsay! I see the sun's over the yard arm. I need a little bracer.
Nick Kaplan
May 29th, 2008 7:01pmAlex R; I think the answer to your question must be no, on account of “sensible left-wing” being an oxymoron.
Pete F
May 29th, 2008 7:17pmAs heavy defeat stares nuLiar in the face, now would be a good time for them to introduce proportional representation of some sort; it could be the only way they'll have any sort of voice after 2010
CCTV
May 29th, 2008 7:28pmBen W-P comes from a long line of Labour Party saviours with his grandfather being a candidate for Mosley's BUF in the East End.
Now if only Mosley had beaten MacDonald at the party conference then it would not be haunted bu its demons and Mosley could have been a democrat with distinction
Jennie
May 29th, 2008 8:37pmThe differences between the doomed Major government and Brown's shaky one are that, in the first case, both interest rates and unemployment were sky-high, not to mention sleaze scandal after scandal. Whereas, in the second, none of these obtain. Excepting any further disasters for Brown, Labour's popularity could recover enough for them to win the next GE - just.
Ian C
May 29th, 2008 8:39pmNicholas - It seems to me that your envisaged outcome is the likely consequence of any big defeat for a party whose raison d'etre has substantially been overtaken by achieving the limits of their political influence over the past 100 years. Social democracy has run its course and the centre has been moving right since Blair took over the party.
ciaran austin
May 29th, 2008 9:49pmCCTV is less than honest.
That Wegg Prosser fell out with Mosely, married a Jewish woman and became one of Britain's leading anti-fascists.
In any case what the hell does his grandfather, long dead, have to do with his views?
Fergus Pickering
May 29th, 2008 11:38pmThe difference between Major's government and Brown's is that Major's government bequeathed to its successor an economy in such good shape that Broon had to do precisely nothing whereas.... As for sleaze I should have thought with Cherie and Prescott and Levy and all they are about equal as far as that goes. It is true that Broon does not suck the toes of model girls. Would that...
Nicholas
May 30th, 2008 12:04amJennie, Labour have had plenty of sleaze scandals, and some much worse than the Major era (leading government figures arrested by the police, etc.) it's just that they are more brass-necked and arrogant in carrying on regardless.
Excepting any further disasters for Brown is a slim hope given that he has been the architect of most of them.
And as for Labour's recovering popularity I think it is their unpopularity which is likely to deepen. The most fascinating thing has been the inability or unwillingness of Labour supporters to recognise the hard truth. Everything and everyone is to blame but Brown and Labour we continue to hear.
10/10 for perseverance, 0/10 for substance. Time they were gone.