Brown leads Labour to a historic low--new poll has Lab 23, Con 47, Lib Dems 18
James Forsyth 8:57am
The headlines figures in today’s YouGov poll are disastrous for Brown, the historical comparisons are humiliating—even under Michael Foot the Labour party never sank this low in the polls, but what should really worry Brown about this poll is that he and Labour now trail Cameron and the Tories on every question.
Downing Street has been spinning the line that the recent election results have been so bad for Labour as they have been referendums on the government. The thinking goes that things will improve for Labour at the general election as it will be a choice between Labour and the Tories. This new poll, though, offers no evidence for this theory. Indeed, on a forced choice between a Labour government under Brown and a Tory one led by Cameron, Tory support rises to 54 percent. The Tories have a 17 point lead on economic competence and Cameron a 22 point advantage on who would be the best PM. In these circumstances, framing the election as a choice between a Labour government and a Conservative one will do little, if anything, to improve Labour’s standing.
Jittery Labour MPs will want to pay particular attention to the news that only 8 percent of voters—and 14 percent of Labour supporters—think that it would harm Labour’s chances at the next election if they got rid of Brown while 32 percent—and 40 percent of Labour ones—say it would improve them. Brown’s personal rating is now minus 60 which is the worst ever recorded for any Prime Minister. As Anthony Wells notes, even at the nadir of his fortunes John Major was just above this mark. To adapt the song, thing keep getting worse for Brown.
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Water
May 30th, 2008 9:29am Report this commentGood news!
Max
May 30th, 2008 9:56am Report this commentWhat is it that stops the government from hearing the message? With all the PR expertise at their finger tips, why don't they understand what the electorate want them to do?
They have two years. Arguably if they came into the office on Monday and started putting things right they could still win another election.
Fascinating to watch.
Max
Theerrorlog.blogspot.com
Paul Williams
May 30th, 2008 10:08am Report this commentStrange that although most of the online media is carrying this story, the BBC website isn't (at time of writing) nor is Ceefax.
I remember when Major got slightly better polls than Brown at the moment they were still headline news on BBC...hmmm must be some reason for the omission, I wonder what it is...?
richard j
May 30th, 2008 10:19am Report this commentPerhaps he should go back to refusing to wear black or white tie?
David C
May 30th, 2008 10:22am Report this commentIf the trends continue then Labour and the LibDems will be approaching parity in 6 - 8 weeks.
I cannot see how Labour could allow this possibility to arise.
The logical move is to get rid of Brown immediately and pray that the party can capitalise on any upward momentum.
If the Lib Dems and Labour do reach the same polling levels, what is to stop support haemorrhaging to the party which has the more progressive policies and better represents the lower paid?
Nick Kaplan
May 30th, 2008 10:57am Report this commentDavid C, please refer to Lib Dem policies as more ‘left-wing’ rather than ‘more progressive’, such policies rarely achieve anything that could be termed progress.
Austin Barry
May 30th, 2008 11:06am Report this commentNow showing to your left: one stuffed, monocular, Caledonian former Great Beast. Suitable for use as a novelty hat-stand in a baronial Highland Hotel catering to the charabanc trade, or, automated, as the guide to the charisma-free zone at Planet Westminster. Low maintenance, but keep away from mobile phones and muzzle in the presence of junior staff. Can we start at 10 pence?
Nick Kaplan
May 30th, 2008 11:07am Report this commentPaul; there is some coverage of this on the BBC website, it’s hidden away on the politics page at the end of a short clip entitled “Terror concessions planned.” I suspect that they’ve put it up there so they can’t be accused of not covering it, but the lengths they’ve gone to hide it typifies the bias of the BBC.
David C
May 30th, 2008 12:09pm Report this commentNick
I use the term 'progressive' in its 'newspeak', essentially pejorative form.
:)
Water
May 30th, 2008 12:39pm Report this commentConsidering the local elections just took place a while ago this is no major surprise. Though the importance of a swing in Lib dem support increasingly becomes a factor. It will be interesting to see what Brown can do to coax cleggian voters.
Dave
May 30th, 2008 12:53pm Report this commentBrown is the best PM Labour can manage!
Martin Alexander
May 30th, 2008 1:00pm Report this commentNick Kaplan...Try as I might I cannot find any reference to the YouGov poll anywhere on the BBC website...As a result I have fired off a complaint...This Nulab bias infuriates me. Martin
Progressive Perry
May 30th, 2008 1:09pm Report this commentCome now ladies and gents, in the topsy-turvy world of the socialist paradise of Noo-Boring-Liars, everything is capable of deconstruction and re assembly into preferred symmetry.
Therefore, be still. Calm your restless excitement. Look on this as a Triumph. Black (is that word politically incorrect yet?) really is white. ‘Failure’ is SUCCESS! Only warped perception could fail to recognise an all-time low as an All Time High. Did you not read the word ‘LEAD’ in the title of James’ piece?
Progressive people know this. Do try and keep up please!
[oh, btw, tractor production has crept up this month too.]
Nick Kaplan
May 30th, 2008 1:11pm Report this commentMartin; here’s the link to the video which mentions it http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7426968.stm (watch until the very end). I’m glad you complained (not that they will do anything) it’s disgracefully hidden away.
Progressive Perry explains to those of sluggish or wayward nature :
May 30th, 2008 1:18pm Report this commentBy way of explanation, note the words LEADS and HISTORIC in the title. By careful manipulation you will produce HISTORIC LEAD.
[Ask Al Ja Beeba for further enlightening takes on this subject]
David C
May 30th, 2008 1:24pm Report this commentMartin
they have moved the reference to "also in the news" -Brown telephones voters at home. Last two paragraphs.
Paul L
May 30th, 2008 1:33pm Report this commentThe BBC has the poll story in its "what the papers say" section. A very Brownian approach i.e acknowledging the flame but not actually touching it.
Progressive Perry (3rd bite) :
May 30th, 2008 2:52pm Report this commentThe Beloved Leader may conveniently be associated with other ‘firsts’ or Leads of course. For instance : fuel and grocery prices, national debt, bureaucrats in sinecures, GCSE results, - make your own list if you are so inclined. I cannot think of one area of life that the Glorious and Supreme Leader has not, in some way, at some time, touched, - or at least meddled with, or caused to be affected in some way.
There now. That’s power. Let’s join as Brothers and Sisters with the Progressive po-faced Socialist-Champagne-Toffs in drinking to the Ultimate Being.
Oscar
May 30th, 2008 3:05pm Report this commentMartin Alexander - I was infuriated to hear on R4s Feedback yet more eulogies (from BBC staff) for their own news website, which Roger Bolton described as an invaluable resource to understand contemporary politics - recommending it to students. Terrible news for anyone interested in academic impartiality and of course for impartiality in general. It's a very sophisticated political propaganda service - not a news service.
Singularity
May 30th, 2008 3:19pm Report this commentIdentical coverage of critical reports and research on government policies appear on BBC Ceefax and ITV Teletext. Guess which one *always* has a rebuttal at the end such as "The Government said its policies provided 'value for money'"? Quite funny when you spot it.
Progressive Perry, with apologies for words in Big Letters
May 30th, 2008 3:35pm Report this commentAnd - thank you, Oscar – something MUST be done about it. A commitment MUST be made to put this work in hand at the earliest opportunity. It’s all so Orwellian. [or will this risk the wrath of the Al Ja Beeba elite?]
David Lindsay
May 30th, 2008 4:33pm Report this commentYes, but how would a Cameron Government actually be any different?
Be warned, all you journos who don't like Brown because he's a swot and who want Tony Nice But Dim back instead. Cameron might not be in quite the "PhD, QC and nomination for a safe seat all by the time he was 30" league, but you'll still have to wait for Osborne before you have another truly Blair-like Prime Minister without so much as the lights on, never mind anybody at home.
Martin Alexander
May 30th, 2008 5:32pm Report this commentDavid C..Nick..Paul L..Oscar...Found the reference to the YouGov poll...Gives a new meaning to the saying 'burying bad news'...Martin
Hysteria
May 30th, 2008 6:31pm Report this commentdamned if I can find it - use the BBC search engine for "YouGov poll" and the top hit is a link to one dated 13 December 2002 !!!!
RW
May 30th, 2008 7:02pm Report this commentI had a phone call this morning, which went something like this:
"Good morning, Comrade Citizen! Supreme Leader speaking! I'm glad to have this opportunity of reassuring you that the treacherous subversive AntiGov "opinion" poll featured by the running dogs of the pro-Cameronista media this morning is no more than gossip and tittletattle. You will not find this subversive nonsense being given credence by the Brown-Ballsite Broadcasting Corporation, which has accepted my instructions that the figures are entirely fictitious and any coverage of them could prejudice continued public funding.
It is clear to me that the people love me and want me to be their Saviour, the Great Helmsman who will steer them through the turbulent Sea of Economic Despond to the peaceful Blue Lagoon of universal prosperity and fairness for all. Did you like that bit? Comrade Carter made me learn it by heart. He is brilliantly redefining my vision in language which the grateful proletariat can repeat daily in their schools, home and factories.
Comrade Citizen, I trust this telephone call has not been intrusive. As Supreme Leader I have already been up for several hours, working tirelessly for the greater good of Mother Britain, and naturally I assumed you were too. Oh, you weren't? CLICK. "
I think that's what he said but was so surprised to get a personal call from such an important national figure, and so befuddled by sleepiness at 3.00am, that I might not have got all the details right. Of course it could have been a spoof.
Nick Kaplan
May 30th, 2008 7:33pm Report this commentThe link that I put up earlier regarding the one and only (and pathetically brief and well hidden) mention of the You Gov poll has now been removed from the BBC website to be replaced with a personal attack on Harold MacMillan. Further evidence of a BBC agenda....
Palpitating Perry
May 30th, 2008 8:53pm Report this commentOh RW – sounds genuine to me and I swoon with delight at your story, so vivid, I could have been there. I’m sure we’re all sick with excitement and envy at the thought of what it must have been like for you, and how you felt afterwards.
Respectfully suggest you rest quietly this evening.
Nick Kaplan
May 30th, 2008 10:31pm Report this commentRW; Brilliant and genius!
floatingvoter
May 30th, 2008 10:32pm Report this commentThe yougov poll was on radio 4 this morning. The BBC clearly are biased but even they have to accept when people are not happy with things though there is a feeling when listening, watching or reading that they are being forced to reflect a changing landscape. I very much doubt though the Tories would win such a landslide as suggested by the poll.
The government will almost certainly borrow to give us tax cuts before these 2 years are out
Andrew Zalotocky
May 30th, 2008 11:51pm Report this commentAt this rate Labour will soon be polling at or below the level of the Liberal Democrats. Is that going to be the trigger for a revolt by desparate MPs determined to force Brown out at all costs?
JimBob
May 31st, 2008 9:03pm Report this commentPoor old Gordon couldn't have happened to a nicer chap. Bring on milipede
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