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Saturday, 26th November 2011

How can Cameron protect our interests in Europe in the short term?

Daniel Korski 5:27pm

Chatting to people in Brussels last week, I couldn't help feeling that David Cameron's EU problem is one of timing. The PM will probably be able to piece together a repatriation package that includes measures such as a withdrawal from the over-implemented Working Time Directive and a reduction in the EU budget. But none of this is likely to be enough for his party. Indeed, I suspect the budget won't be finalised until two minutes to midnight during the Lithuanian EU Presidency in 2013.

Add to this the Tobin Tax, where there seems to be little leeway for the British government. Barosso, Merkel and Sarkozy are determined to introduce it, and even a Eurozone-only tax will harm the City. The EC President was quick to dismiss claims he gave David Cameron a choice of renegotiation or the Tobin Tax. But he clearly feels the tax is a political imperative to counter the narrative of the indignados.

Ironically, in time, the UK would probably get all it could ever wish for. With the collapse of the euro now closer than ever before, the EU is going to undergo a profound transformation of the sort I have already blogged about. And while everyone is now hiding behind British demands for renegotiation, many other states will be willing to argue for their own opt-outs when it comes to a future restructuring of the EU. So timing is what matters. Unfortunately, it is not in the PM's favour.

So what to do? First, the UK needs to decide what it really cares about. It faces a real risk of structural isolation for a period between the initial moves to reform and until the EU fundamentally reforms itself (which may happen in small steps through several rounds of treaty changes). Knowing where and when we are prepared to make concessions, and where we really want to advance, will make that time less attritional and more productive.

And then the UK needs to make common cause with European states inside and outside the eurozone. Much goodwill was squandered in eastern Europe during the last decade. The current government needs to repair that, with the PM upping his travel rate to would-be partners. And, after President Gul's visit to London, we might also do more to develop a stronger strategic partnership with Turkey, perhaps with a Royal visit, or by appointing a senior politician as the UK's ambassador.

Finally, the government must start the biggest campaign it has ever funded to stop the Tobin Tax. This tax would cost the UK £billions — so if the government spends £10 million to avoid it it would be cash well-spent. And, what's more, the campaign should be led by a high-level ‘campaign manager’. No ordinary diplomat or treasury official will do.

Perhaps none of this will work, as the timing may simply be wrong. But, with our future economic prospects at stake, it is all certainly worth a shot.

Filed under: Business (137 more articles) , Coalition (1903 more articles) , David Cameron (1737 more articles) , Economy (899 more articles) , Euro (176 more articles) , Europe (708 more articles) , France (222 more articles) , Germany (134 more articles) , International politics (719 more articles) , UK politics (4967 more articles)

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Mr. Bubbles

November 26th, 2011 5:45pm Report this comment

Do we not have a veto over the 'Tobin Tax'? Just say no... simple as that. No need to chuck money at a 'campaign' to stop it. How ludicrous.

Your whole outlook is quite perverse really. We're in a situation where we take the begging bowl to an EU that we're bankrolling just to ask for a few scraps, and you think it's perfectly reasonable! The solution is before your eyes, but you refuse to even countenance it - give us a say, let us vote to leave the whole bloody mess.

Yow Min Lye

November 26th, 2011 5:52pm Report this comment

Am I the only one person regards this whole 'renegotiation' charade as akin to a naive householder pleading with a streetwise burglar in the hope that at least a few treasured heirlooms won't end up in his swagbag.

For goodness sake, Dave, either you want powers back or you dont. In which case, stop asking the EU bigwigs what they will permit Britain to reclaim and start telling them these are what powers you will be taking back. Blunt it may be, but history proves this is the only language that the likes of Sarkozy and Rumpy-Pumpy understand.

What's in it for them? Well, once Britain is unshackled from this corpse called the European Project then they can all go off and make integration and 'ever closer union' to their hearts' content.

Neil McEvoy

November 26th, 2011 5:57pm Report this comment

"Add to this the Tobin Tax, where there seems to be little leeway for the British government. "

Daniel, are you a coward in your personal life? Have you never said "no" to anyone and invited them to do their worst?

adrian drummond

November 26th, 2011 6:01pm Report this comment

"Chatting to people in Brussels last week.."

Daniel, I admire your persistence but you are wasting your time. The euro is almost history. I suggest you start talking to people that matter.. the one's who will have to sort out the mess that is coming our way...

daniel maris

November 26th, 2011 6:04pm Report this comment

Hmmm, not the way I see it.

Do we really think that a currency at the heart of a trading bloc with the biggest or second biggest GDP in the world can't survive? I don't see why.

Cameron won't win on the Tobin Tax.

The repatriation package will be pathetic and retograde. Why should we have to work ridiculously long hours when the world economy is hugely more productive than it was in our parent's day?

Mudplugger

November 26th, 2011 6:10pm Report this comment

The only way Cameron could 'protect out interests in Europe' would be to give us the opportunity to decide whether we should leave it.
Once concluded, his hand is strong either way. If we voted to leave, our interests would become protected in the same way the Swiss protect theirs. If we voted to stay in, God help us (if there is one).

maxsceptic

November 26th, 2011 6:24pm Report this comment

Why does there need to be an expensive campaign to oppose the Tobin Tax?

The governments just needs to say no - and mean it.

(There: I've saved the hard-pressed taxpayer £10 million. I'll gladly accept a 1% fee.)

Tom Gallagher

November 26th, 2011 6:38pm Report this comment

'much goodwill was squandered in Eastern Europe [by Britain] over the last decade..'

Could he be referring to Tony Blair's championing of early entry for weak and vulnerable countries like Romania on condition that they embrace shock therapy, throw open their markets to giant EU firms, and privatise their strategic utilities and industries for bargain basement prices?

No British companies partook of the plunder since we have so few big TNCs left in the manufacturing field. This week the Austrians who along with the Greeks own 60% of the banking sector in Romania, announced that they would be effectively stopping loans. The credit squeeze will hammer the fragile Romanian economy where the Austrians have made eyewatering profits in the last decade.
If Britain wishes to enjoy diplomatic credit in the countries along the Danube, it should champion their interests at the top of the EU in the face of piratical Austrians AND Germans whoseem intent on copying what he Chinese are doing across much of Africa.

Hexhamgeezer

November 26th, 2011 6:40pm Report this comment

Who is this 'we' you refer to Korski?

As for 'until the EU fundamentally reforms itself''; we have been sold this opaque dissembling evasive shite for at least 25 years.

However, your scenario, fallatious as it is, is one that dave accepts wholeheartedly and will use against his own country, namely that the EU and its governors will decide timings and parameters of any discussion on the UK's position. This, as you know is completely false. If we had a PM who had confidence in his own people's abilities as opposed to the likes of Barroso, Ashton, and von Rumpy we would have a lever which would ensure the UK wouldn't be shat on quite so much.

Florence of Arabia

November 26th, 2011 6:44pm Report this comment

Korski asks, with manipulative gravitas, "How can Cameron protect our interests in Europe in the short term?"

I have spotted your deliberate mistake, Korski! He has absolutely no interest in doing so, being more focussed on his own future in the EUSSR after he's kicked out of Downing St...

The headline should have read: "How Can Cameron Protect His Interests (And Future) in Europe?"

He's probably sensing the chill of losing the next election ...

Dennis Churchill

November 26th, 2011 6:46pm Report this comment

The Lords have debated the need for a credible cost benefit analyses of our membership of the EU.
Unlike our political class the economics are all the electorate are interested in. They don’t care about supposed ability to “influence” the direction of the EU or the world for that matter.
The Franco-Germans will have thrown the baby out with the bath water due to their inability to understand the need for win-win outcomes. Like the Versailles Treaty the French just could not resist taking the last drop of blood from the weaker side when De Gaulle’s government negotiated with Heath’s, a situation made worse by further concession over the years.
We need to get out and if they want to trade with us then that is fine, if not, who cares? We run a £30 odd billion a year trade deficit with them putting up duty to the maximum allowed under the WTO and being a bit obstructive should help our balance of payments.
I wonder if they will still pay pensions to Clegg,Patten etc?

Paul Danon

November 26th, 2011 6:55pm Report this comment

Is it that complicated? We want access to continental markets without all the red tape. The campaign-manager to oppose the Tobin-tax should be Dr Cable, business-secretary.

The Last Englishman

November 26th, 2011 6:59pm Report this comment

@ Yow Min Lye

Thank you - I thought it was just me that felt that way...

Heartless Curmudgeon

November 26th, 2011 7:19pm Report this comment

The H2B can best protect our interests by BUGGERING OFF! and letting someone of drive, ability and honour take over.

(Lest this be too strong for the delicate upbringing and refined sensitivities of the Speccy people let me rephrase:

RESIGN YOU HOPELESS LITTLE TWERP! )

strapworld

November 26th, 2011 7:53pm Report this comment

Yow Min Lye, That is what a leader, a true Brit would do, indeed should do. But we cannot depend on the weakest Prime Minister this country has ever had to actually stand UP for the Country.

Korski has been to Euroland again to take orders. He has never explained just what his links with the crazed people over there actually is. He has never denied being on their payroll, so whatever he writes we must take with a massive dose of salt.

Andy Leeds

November 26th, 2011 7:54pm Report this comment

Dave needs to grow a pair and use the 'Veto' to the maximum effect. The French and the Germans only understand blunt language.

Mycroft

November 26th, 2011 7:58pm Report this comment

There does seem to be a real possibility now that the Euro may not survive in its present form; the one certain thing is that nobody knows what is going to happen, and it is not possible to have a definitive British position on anything until it can be known either that the Euro will be preserved or it will not. Though on the Tobin tax we've clearly got to pull out all the stops to impede it.

Rosie

November 26th, 2011 8:28pm Report this comment

The time has well passed for Europe-bashing, and I even wonder whether, given the enormity of the currency problems ahead, even the Tobin tax should be at the top of our issues list.

Britain, with it's huge reliance on the financial community, should be right in there, advising and negotiating, and certainly not sat at the sidelines yelling about big bazookas like an out-of-control red top newspaper.

tankus

November 26th, 2011 8:38pm Report this comment

Its going to implode faster than our dear beloved leaders can react to
...
and it wont be one big bang !...but a series of littles ones going of in unexpected places all over eurodisney , building to an economic cumulus of gibbering havoc......

.....with the political monkeys supposedly in the loop not having a clue which button to push or which way to wobble! .....we have already passed tipping point , the government runs have already started.

Simon Stephenson.

November 26th, 2011 8:39pm Report this comment

"How can Cameron protect our interests in Europe in the short term?"

He can commission an accurate assessment of how much it is reckoned the UK will be able to change the agenda of the federalist and socialist Monnet-men who currently determine what goes on in the EU, and what doesn't. If the conclusion is that we won't significantly be able to change anything, he should put in motion the arrangements for our departure.

If, however, the conclusion is that there is a reasonable chance of the Monnet-men being put back under a stone for the rest of their lives, he should enter discussions with other anti-federalists about how to reconstruct the EU into an apolitical, minimally bureaucratic, mutual assistance organisation of sovereign nation-states.

Cynic

November 26th, 2011 8:46pm Report this comment

"Chatting to people in Brussels last week, I couldn't help feeling that David Cameron's EU problem is one of timing." Whereas, chatting to people when I walk my dogs, when I'm shopping, or in the pub (or just about anywhere where I interact with people in the real world in fact) on a regular basis, I am constantly reminded that Cameron's EU problem is one of denying us a referendum. People are furious. They want a say.

Cynic

November 26th, 2011 8:53pm Report this comment

"The PM will probably be able to piece together a repatriation package that includes measures such as ..." [blah, blah, blah]. No he won't. The only way to repatriate anything is to leave. Those below the line keep telling you about acquis communautaire. Don't you read any of the responses, Daniel? I, for one, am sick of your peddling the nonsense that Cameron can repatriate X,Y or Z. Once the EU has acquired a power, it won't let it go. Let's have a bit of non-fiction for a change.

TomTom

November 26th, 2011 9:17pm Report this comment

Renegotiation will take place as a series of bilateral treaties between key EuroZone members outside the EU Commission so Cameron can go suck wind. There is a new world of variable geometry coming into being; France only wants Britain to help it militarily in attacking Syria; inside the EU it is simply a cow to be milked

Heartless Curmudgeon

November 26th, 2011 9:31pm Report this comment

The best thing the H2B can do is ... GO!!!! and let someone of honour, ability, and drive take over. Anything less betrays him as a loser of the very worst sort, a traitor to Britain's best interests, and a nasty little lickspittle to boot.

Tarka the Rotter

November 26th, 2011 9:52pm Report this comment

"How can Cameron protect our interests in Europe in the short term?" How about resign if favour of a Conservative leader?

Mirtha Tidville

November 26th, 2011 9:55pm Report this comment

I`m afraid all this presupposes that Dave is on our side......Dangerous assumption to make IMO.

Stu

November 26th, 2011 10:48pm Report this comment

Answer seems quite simple to me. No Tobin tax or we withraw from the EUSSR.

TrevorsDen

November 26th, 2011 11:41pm Report this comment

Weakest PM this country has had - ? That is such patent rubbish as to be beyond comment. But you are in good company.

The problems of the Euro will not go away. It is going to be a drag anchor on the EU. Hard to see Europe getting any benefit from a Tobin Tax, especially as we would not be a part of it.

Verity

November 27th, 2011 12:47am Report this comment

Heartless Curmudgeon, Tom Tom and Tarka The Rotter - Hooray! Well said!

Verity

November 27th, 2011 1:17am Report this comment

Mirtha Tidville - Agree.

Trevor's Den, I usually ignore your posts out of boredom, but you apparently don't agree that Cameron is the weakest PM Britain's ever had. OK, name one who was weaker. Blair was equally greedy, but he was smarter and has a stronger personality and he took more trouble to win people over and he most assuredly was not weak.

Unlike most OEs, Blancmange Face does not bother to charm. I think he doesn't know how to be affable and connect with people outside his circle. Viz, he thought he should wear a lounge suit (until someone had the sense to rein him in) to the royal wedding, thinking that "the little people" would be intimidated by his grandeur in a morning suit. He didn't even know (or didn't listen to people who tried to tell him) that Brits on all levels push the boat out for weddings and that the men who don't have morning attire in the closet, rent it. Similarly, his ghastly wife turned up at Westminster Abbey looking as though she was going to meet the girls for lunch at a local brasserie. They're so disconnected that they don't (or didn't .. they do now) know that British women love wearing hats for weddings ... and, something tattooed Samantha doesn't know, we love to see other women wearing pretty hats.

Dave Blancmange is the most disconnected PM we've ever had. And, of course, the Brits weren't stupid enough to vote him into the PM slot. He had to scamper round pulling Clegg off Brown's ankle.

Fernando

November 27th, 2011 9:25am Report this comment

Why the concern over the Tobin Tax? As I understand the position, we can veto any tax in the wider EU. If the members of the eurozone decide to have one applying to banks in their area, why not let them. It would apply to transactions by banks based in the eurozone. London would be impacted if those banks made transactions in London. But the same would apply to any transactions by eurozone banks, anywhere. Wouldn’t this be a major competitive advantage for non-eurozone banks, cementing London’s position as a world financial centre. Or am I misunderstanding the position?

TomTom

November 27th, 2011 10:25am Report this comment

"we can veto any tax in the wider EU."

Does the Lisbon Treaty permit this ? Is QMV not applicable ?

Frank P

November 27th, 2011 10:29am Report this comment

Verity (1.17am)

You could have saved some cartridge ink in your last sentence by placing the full stop after "off" and omitting "Brown's ankle".
:-)

Raymond Burke

November 27th, 2011 12:39pm Report this comment

I do not see much wrong with a directive that limits employees' hours to 48 a week, not when they can volunteer to work longer if they really want to slave all the hours God sends.

Do not tell me that British business cannot afford the luxury of restricting workers to what amounts to a six-day, eight-hour week. Not at a time when business fat cats are awarding themselves mouth-watering salary and bonus increases.

If our leaders want to repatriate some powers from Brussels, they might start by tackling those which have a wide measure of support from voters. I doubt whether rescinding the Working Time Directive falls into that category.

Verity

November 27th, 2011 4:56pm Report this comment

Heartless Curmudgeon and Strapworld - Well said to both!

Verity

November 27th, 2011 4:57pm Report this comment

"How can Cameron protect our interests in Europe in the short term?"

Having a go at writing comedy now, Korski?

Verity

November 27th, 2011 5:11pm Report this comment

"How can Cameron protect our interests in Europe in the short term?"

A one-word answer: Resign.

Verity

November 27th, 2011 5:57pm Report this comment

Heartless Curmudgeon 7:19 pm Sat - Applaud.

Dimoto

November 28th, 2011 12:24am Report this comment

Ha-ha, I had always pictured Verity as this professional lady of 40something (hope that isn't too ungalant), demure, pretty and quite charming, whose secret vice is to "let it all hang out" on the good old web.

This obsession with pretty little hats and "blancmange faces", kinda clinches it !

Cameron has one of those amiable, slightly vacant, aristocratic faces - he bears a passing resemblance to Arthur Wellesley !

The Remittance Man

November 28th, 2011 11:53am Report this comment

@ Dimoto.

In no way at all does Cameron reemble The Duke of Wellington, neither physically nor in temperament.

Verity

November 28th, 2011 2:07pm Report this comment

Frank P - I like the "Brown's ankle" bit. It's mean.

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