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Monday, 28th November 2011

The reasons for Angela Merkel's popularity

Daniel Korski 5:19pm

The British government is becoming ever more gloomy about the prospects for the euro, believing that Angela Merkel will not do what she has to if the single currency is to survive: namely, let the ECB intervene massively in the markets. Whether it's because of Germany’s inflation-scarred history, or the hope that market pressure will force reforms in many European states, the Chancellor is holding back. And, it seems, she is getting more and more popular by sticking to her policy.
 
Mrs Merkel’s popularity is, indeed, related to her handling of the Eurocrisis. In Germany she is seen as having shown the kind of leadership people want, and the recent CDU party conference cemented her status. 

But there is more the Merkel's bounce than that. Just consider the latest poll numbers. Merkel's CDU/CSU are hovering around 31 per cent in Forsa surveys, while the centre-left SPD are at 27 per cent. The Greens are polling at 16 per cent, while the Free Democrats (FDP) are on 3 percent — below the 5 percent threshold needed for seats in parliament. And this is key. It means there is little chance of the CDU/CSU-FDP coalition holding power beyond 2013. The most likely outcome would be a grand coalition of CDU/CSU-SPD, with a CDU/CSU-Greens coalition the second most likely result. 

So German politics is moving leftwards — and the Chancellor has followed. She moved to close Germany’s 17 nuclear power plants — which generate one-quarter of the country’s electricity — by 2022, following the partial nuclear meltdown at the Fukushima Daiichi plant in Japan. Against opposition in her own party, she has decided to end military conscription. And, finally, the CDU has committed to implementing the minimum wage. 

These left-wing policies are not only putting her in a strong position for after the next election, but are also making her more popular. Her stance on the euro is only part of the story.

Filed under: Angela Merkel (91 more articles) , Elections (284 more articles) , Eurozone (100 more articles) , Germany (146 more articles)

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Dennis Churchill

November 28th, 2011 5:45pm Report this comment

The key to her success is something Cameron should consider, she is seen by the German electorate as putting their interests first. Our political class on the contrary are seen as treating the British electorate as just another group with no more right to expect preferential treatment than any other group.
Throwing open our borders and hosing money in foreign aid being examples of this mindset.

Verity

November 28th, 2011 6:02pm Report this comment

You missed the last two words out of your headline, Korski (assume Speccie hacks have to write their own headlines). It should read "Angela Merkel popularity in Germany".

TomTom

November 28th, 2011 6:11pm Report this comment

And E.On is suing the German Government for Billions. BUBA is attacking the Government for total failure to practise what it preaches and CUT Spending and the German Deficit. German Banks are insolvent; Deutsche Bank alone = 84% German GDP but has huge liabilities in PIIGS as does Allianz SE which is why Pauol Achleitner is moving from Allianz to be Vors AR of Deutsche Bank AG.

You really must start to move beyond the superficial. polling is bunkum. People are fed up of squeezed real incomes after 10 years in Germany and ever increasing taxes. German Economic Growth is split 43% State; 27% Workers; 30% Capitalists

Dave B

November 28th, 2011 6:11pm Report this comment

Letting the ECB use Germany's chequebook would not solve the Euro's problems. It would just give Germany a new problem.

http://conservativehome.blogs.com/platform/2011/11/from-rogerhelmermep-cameron-is-asking-germany-to-bankrupt-itself-in-a-futile-attempt-to-sustain-an-u.html

disenfranchised

November 28th, 2011 6:24pm Report this comment

perhaps she "will not do what she has to" because it would break the EU's own boy scout club rules. though we've seen that their cherished rules are only there for the breaking, rules is rules, baby.

blimey daniel, why do i feel so bad about myself when i comment on any of your stuff? maybe it's because i spent a lot of time in luxembourg, and saw the EEC and it's personnel up close and personal.

i said then, all those years ago, that it was a bad, bad thing, and what do you know, nothing they've said or done since has made me alter that conviction in any way.....

strapworld

November 28th, 2011 7:08pm Report this comment

Absolutely correct, Mr Churchill. Cameron cannot be expected or relied upon to stand up for this Country. The man bows down to Mrs Merkel and that odious little frenchman. Goodness this country has had its fill of odious French leaders who treat us with such disrespect yet have relied upon us so much.

Perhaps Father Christmas will provide Cameron with some balls and a backbone?

London Calling

November 28th, 2011 7:17pm Report this comment

When Angela Merkel claimed recently that the euro crisis could destabilise peace within Europe, I assumed she meant a war in Europe. A war of words maybe, social unrest most definitely, however until reading this post, I have read almost everywhere else that Angela Merkel is unpopular in Germany, her sudden rise to populism therefore must stem from her reluctance to entrench Germany further into the euro abyss, thus diverting pressure on the IMF, of which David Cameron assured us recently that the UK contribution would not be bailing out further countries in the Eurozone. This in itself is the distraction, not the solution and If the UK were take the same stance as Germany, the UK would have withdrawn from the EU already, based on UK financial debt and responsibilities…of which no doubt UK citizens would support also and would also prove very popular…

Ray Morris

November 28th, 2011 7:54pm Report this comment

Just think 'eh all that time waiting desperately to get rid of Brown and we finish up with this...who would have believed it.
Now we are waiting all this time to get rid of this plonker..but where from here? That is the question, is this the beginning of the rise of the the more extreme party's.
UKIP doesn't come under that heading I know but a lot of votes going their way when crosses on paper are next up for grabs.
I'm certainly not voting mainstream ever again they just just treat us as fodder.

Cynic

November 28th, 2011 8:26pm Report this comment

"The British government is becoming ever more gloomy about the prospects for the euro, believing that Angela Merkel will not do what she has to if the single currency is to survive: namely, let the ECB intervene massively in the markets." Anybody with half a brain can see that the euro is doomed. It could never have worked from the very beginning, but breaking the rules and dithering instead of making decisions definitely made matters worse. When are we going to get our referendum?

GC

November 28th, 2011 8:27pm Report this comment

She's going to go down in history as the woman who killed the euro and led Europe into a 10 year depression unless she changes fast. Germans need to be educated as an exporter nation they will be killed if the euro breaks up. A new DM would probably revalue c40%? 50%? Instantly put half of Germanys exporters out of business and create massive unemployment and social unrest. The fact Germans are being kept in the dark about this is a crime. We will all suffer the consequences too. It will be a re run of the 1930's - and we all know what that led to in Europe.

GC

November 28th, 2011 8:31pm Report this comment

Note to all of the posters/readers of an anti EU mindset who thinks the euro break up or indeed an EU break up is a good thing. If it happens we, yes, us in the UK will be exposed to market forces so violent it will make any post war depression seem mild. Ask anyone old enough or read what life was like in the 1930's. Because its about to be re run if indeed Merkel gets her way. It will be catastrophic. Your life savings will be wiped out, you wont have a job, you'll have no prospect of one and many many people will be destitute for a generation. trust me

Hexhamgeezer

November 28th, 2011 10:46pm Report this comment

It is not 'her policy' it is being forced on her but she is willing to accept to stay in power.

exile on euro street

November 29th, 2011 11:19am Report this comment

DK - a little perspective, please. This isn't popularity, it's damage limitation. The SPD were in disarray before and after the election 2 years ago and still they are 4% up on their result, while the CDU/CSU are 3% down. The FDP have imploded so she's flailing around looking for another partner come 2013. The nuclear shutdown was a knee-jerk reaction which will do her no good come the next election as people will want to know where the electricity is coming from and how much it will now cost. She's the least worst option, but popularity isn't the right word.

TomTom

November 29th, 2011 11:40am Report this comment

"Deutschland mutiert zur Blockflötendemokratie"

You see Mr Korski, Merkel is accused of running a Block Party as in the GDR, a government unlike any in postwar Federal German history, one without any principles but simply incorporating all parties into one Block Party with no dissent

Cogito Ergosum

November 29th, 2011 12:16pm Report this comment

Frau Merkel once used the political slogan, "Politik ohne Lüge": politics without lies. Let us hope her policies succeed.

hamburger

November 29th, 2011 1:40pm Report this comment

Blockflöte means recorder TomTom, the article in Die Welt refers to the observation that political parties all sound alike. Nothing to do with blocking I am afraid.

TomTom

November 29th, 2011 3:25pm Report this comment

Read the article not the headline....

TomTom

November 29th, 2011 3:37pm Report this comment

Hamburger, you may care to read the article and the sub-heading - "Eine formal aufgespaltene Einheitspartei regiert "

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