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Tuesday, 29th November 2011

On the road to break-up?

Peter Hoskin 11:38am

Before we plunge into the Autumn Statement, we really ought to mention the poison cloud hanging over Brussels today. European finance ministers, including George Osborne, are meeting there later — and it's certainly not going to be good for their collective health. Klaus Regling, the head of the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), is expected to tell them that there's basically no chance of them boosting the bailout fund to €1 trillion in the near future, as was promised at the end of last month. Back then, David Cameron urged eurozone leaders to bring a ‘big bazooka’ to the fight. They have barely managed a cap gun.

This is far from surprising. Even when the expansion of the fund to €1 trillion was first announced, it had a whiff of fantasy about it. It wasn't a solid achievement, you see, but a target — and meeting that target depended heavily upon the goodwill of the Chinese, and other eastern countries, in buying up European debt. They haven't stumped up, so the fund is still languishing some distance short of €1 trillion mark. Many economists reckon that, even if the mark were reached, it still wouldn't be enough to keep Italy afloat, let alone limit any spillage across the rest of Europe.

So what now? The finance ministers will today tweak how the EFSF operates, to make it easier for it to raise and deliver cash. They will also, no doubt, keep extending the begging bowl towards Beijing. But they will also know that they need to rustle up some alternatives. Hence the pressure being exerted on Germany to allow the ECB to take a more active role in buying up European bonds; pressure that Berlin is, so far, resisting. Little wonder that more and more observers are predicting a break-up for the euro.

Filed under: Debt (191 more articles) , Economy (1023 more articles) , Euro (190 more articles) , Europe (754 more articles) , European Central Bank (6 more articles) , European Union (163 more articles) , Eurozone (100 more articles) , George Osborne (799 more articles) , Germany (146 more articles)

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telemachus'

November 29th, 2011 11:58am Report this comment

Perhap if we had Gordon at the helm a solution would have been found

David L

November 29th, 2011 12:04pm Report this comment

Cards on the table time yet? I had thought that Germany was either using brinkmanship to make the eurozone countries comply with basic fiscal discipline, or would eventually cave in under pressure from the USA, France and others to save the workd from the consequences of a euro collapse.

It now seems that Mrs Merkel's her own lady, and is quite prepared to jettison the PIIGS cuntries and refound the euro within a smaller core.

The question then becomes: whether the resultant flurry of panic can be controlled, as people in the non-core countries see the value of their savings reduced to junk. Could be a lively Christmas.

wrinkled weasel

November 29th, 2011 12:24pm Report this comment

It is an established tactic of despots and tyrants to "fight to the last drop of blood" whilst keeping a 737 on the runway with its engines running.

Confronted by the truth, doled out recently by Nigel Farage, I discerned that Van Rumpuy and co were checking their pension schemes as Farage delivered a coruscating philippic.

Commentators suggest that the delay in the fall of the Euro is mostly now down to the need to get a plan in place to cope with it.

The bugger in all this is again the despot's other characteristic of hanging on when the generals tell him that the game is up.

The mechanisms, beloved of the unelected Eurocrats are still being examined in private. They hinge on forms of words and recondite voting mechanisms and their propensity for gerrymandering. Their hope is that they can continue to somehow bypass that inconvenient need to allow the people to vote on any Treaty change. Failing this they will simply wait until the vote is the "right" answer.

Desperation is the name of the game and so far I have not seen any evidence that any of these gentlemen will do the decent thing and retire to a discreet hotel with a Smith and Wesson and a bottle of Brandy.

toco

November 29th, 2011 12:27pm Report this comment

The Eurozone is a naive fantasy-how can one expect to throw a toxic mix of cultures and behaviours together and discover Nirvana.The quicker Germany accepts the inevitable and dismantles this dangerous EU project the better.

Frank P

November 29th, 2011 12:28pm Report this comment

For a moment I though your headline referred to the CH Wall, which seems to be crumbling under a tsunami of criticism about the erratic software response to posts. Perhaps if Fraser could manage to get that forum right, we would be able take him more seriously when reading his recent posts about putting to rights the Tory Party, the Eurostates and the World at large. Charity begins at home Mr Editor.

Patricia Shaw

November 29th, 2011 12:33pm Report this comment

Eurozone extremely useful for George Osborne who starts his statement by blaming it for our woes. Haha.

wrinkled weasel

November 29th, 2011 12:55pm Report this comment

Frank P I second that. I could not post at all on the Wall yesterday. It should also be moderated for twaddle or it will end up like Guido.

Ghengis

November 29th, 2011 2:15pm Report this comment

FrankP: The description the eu presented by toco, might well be applied to CH wall

Patricia Shaw

November 29th, 2011 2:44pm Report this comment

A boycot of products made in China would make for a sobering Christmas but might send a message to Beijing.

starfish

November 29th, 2011 2:51pm Report this comment

"Eurozone extremely useful for George Osborne who starts his statement by blaming it for our woes. Haha"

Presumably you would prefer to ignore it then?

Given that Osborne's plans was based on a whole load of assumptions that are now being revised the wrong way (from his perspective) it is hardly surprising that his plans need to change

Strangely when facts change in the EU or there is clear evidence to the contrary they ignore them and press on regardless

John Moss

November 29th, 2011 2:52pm Report this comment

Did Italy just pay 7.8% on ten year bonds?

TomTom

November 29th, 2011 3:24pm Report this comment

"The quicker Germany accepts the inevitable and dismantles this dangerous EU project the better."

It is a French project. Every EU Bureaucrat MUST speak French not German.

Verity

November 29th, 2011 3:51pm Report this comment

Patrickster Shah & Co --- Why should we "send a message to Beijing" when they are powering forward as successful capitalists?

Perhaps if Britain stopped rewarding failure ... as in draining the coffers of taxpayers to give money and housing to the failures, , grants for the chimera of "climate change" and aid to Africa, the richest continent on the globe, and worked damned hard, we might be able to compete with China.

fergus pickering

November 29th, 2011 4:30pm Report this comment

And who is going to boycott cheap tellies and the like? Not me, guv. Tell you what, I'll boycott chinese whispers.

Simon Stephenson.

November 29th, 2011 4:53pm Report this comment

telemachus : 11.58am

"Perhap if we had Gordon at the helm a solution would have been found"

Gordon's only "solution" is for there to be a withdrawal of personal and individual freedoms, so that the course of everyone's daily activity - how they live their lives, what they do and what they don't do - is determined by the bureaucratic and political state. Gordon's poodles, the two Eds, have only this same "solution" on offer.

This type of political arrangement was given a widespread test-run across the world during the 20th century, and with zero exceptions, was shown to be a miserable and depressing failure.

Hexhamgeezer

November 29th, 2011 5:10pm Report this comment

With the toxic crap associated with US sub-prime never fully laid bare added to the shedloads of euros lent to the likes of Greece, one wonders if there is a single bank in Europe which could qualify as genuinely solvent.

NickW

November 30th, 2011 2:57pm Report this comment

Europe cut its own throat.

The EFSF charter makes it inviolate from any action by individuals or Governments should there be defaults, losses or fraud. Would you invest on that basis?

In addition to that stupidity, the EU has also deliberately removed any investor protection provided by credit default swaps, with its insistence that haircuts on Greek debt were to be "voluntary".

Add in the contempt for democracy shown by Van Rompuy and the flagrant disregard of European treaties and you can understand why investors are running away from the EFSF and all European Bonds.

Trust, credibility, and respect for the law have all gone, and that is why there is a buyer's strike for European debt.

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