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Tuesday, 29th November 2011

The Autumn Statement: What you need to know

Peter Hoskin and Jonathan Jones 1:58pm

We've been posting some of these charts on Twitter, but here they are, collected, for CoffeeHousers. You can expect more as we mine deeper into the OBR's supplementary document. Do shout out, also, if you spot anything yourself.

1. Weaker growth — except for a very optimistic figure for 2015

2. Higher debt — both in real terms and as percentage of GDP

 

3. Osborne borrowing more than he'd hoped

4. More persistent — and deeper — ILO unemployment

5. The squeeze continues until 2013

Filed under: Debt (191 more articles) , George Osborne (799 more articles) , Growth (182 more articles) , Office for Budget Responsibility (44 more articles) , Pre-Budget Report (45 more articles) , Public finances (753 more articles) , Treasury (226 more articles) , UK politics (5408 more articles) , Unemployment (92 more articles)

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DavidDP

November 29th, 2011 2:10pm Report this comment

Isn't it rther misleading to now include Darling's plan? Just as Osborne's original has been affected by various factors, so would Darling's and it would similarly not be what was forecast.

You may as well compare it to my plan. Similar fantasy figures.

DavidDP

November 29th, 2011 2:12pm Report this comment

But, anyway, the Conservatives now have no hope of winning the next election. There's too much of a squeeze on living standards, the economy won't ever grow fast enough, and the Opposition can as always play fantasy economics to attract votes.

Perhaps the upside is if the Conservatives see that they may throw caution to the wind, but I suspect room to do so in coalition is limited.

That's another lost decade to look forward to under Labour. Oh well.

normanc

November 29th, 2011 2:20pm Report this comment

If there's anything the last five years have taught us it should be that any economic prediction more than 18 months into the future shouldn't be taken too seriously, be it unemployment, growth, inflation, borrowing, whatever.

It's fine to have a plan, and any Chancellor who didn't would be crucified, but the message to be taken from this shouldn't be 'it'll take us to 2016 rather than 2015 to get where we plan to be' but rather 'things are going badly and there's no sign of improvement on the immediate horizon'.

Has anything announced today given rise to a hope that those signs will appear?

oldtimer

November 29th, 2011 2:34pm Report this comment

No light at the end of the tunnel then - debt as %GDP still rising at end of forecast period. And all of this is on the rosy assumption that all is well in the EZ.

whatawaste

November 29th, 2011 2:50pm Report this comment

Investing in infrastructure will undoubtedly create jobs, but will they be filled by Britons?

Under EU rules these projects have to be put out for tender - which will take time - for any European firm to bid for. Our track record for UK firms winning such bids on home soil is pretty abysmal, so I am not optimistic.

Jon Stack

November 29th, 2011 2:58pm Report this comment

My local Chinese takeaway doesn't deliver either.

tom jones

November 29th, 2011 3:39pm Report this comment

Annoys me how the Darling plan is used because surely Labour's plan would've been hit by the Euro crisis too?

Chris lancashire

November 29th, 2011 3:51pm Report this comment

DavidDP: Fear not, the vast majority of people I speak to (and not all by any means Conservative supporters) are fairly depressed about the economy but every one believes Labour got us into this and have no moral right to criticise the current government. Balls-Milliband will have to go before Labour can get into office.

GeoffH

November 29th, 2011 4:07pm Report this comment

"Isn't it rather misleading to now include Darling's plan?"

Not only is it misleading but it's downright dangerous since it gives spurious credibility and comfort to Ball's outpourings.

This is no parallel universe where Darlings' plan was implemented and its projections not only realised but tested against the real world events that have unfolded since May 2010.

A shabby piece of work by Hoskin and Jones.

David L

November 29th, 2011 5:52pm Report this comment

David DP may be right, but when the Election is called, then Labour will be under close scrutiny as to their econonmic plans, and their attitude to the crisis that they played such a major part in causing. My guess is that they will utterly fail to convince.

Frank Leader

November 30th, 2011 8:31am Report this comment

Balls and Miliband are about as genuine as a cheap fake made in Hong Kong.

Steven Farquhar

December 29th, 2011 12:38pm Report this comment

Pull out of the EU, the EEA and negiotiate bilateral free trade agreements with everyone, Britain is a trading nation, it has served us well in the past, the war hungry europeans make us forget Britainnia rules the waves!

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