A tale of two cities
David Blackburn 3:03pm
Nicolas Sarkozy is grudgingly admired by French socialists as a political fighter,
capable of thriving even in the most desperate situation. David Cameron is coming to understand what they mean. It is the best of times and the worst of times between Paris and London. Two months
ago, David Cameron and Nicolas Sarkozy assumed the victor’s garlands in Benghazi; today, they met at odds, if not yet in animosity, over the contested logic of ever closer union in
Europe.
Sarkozy appears to have got his wish: the 17 countries of the Eurozone will deepen their economic and political relations in an attempt to save the single currency — and with it, he hopes, France’s economic and political strength on the international stage. It is unclear how integration will work, with Angela Merkel adamant that German taxpayers are protected from the excesses of their feckless neighbours. More precise details will likely emerge after Monday's Franco-German summit; but Sarkozy seems to have preserved France’s seat at Europe’s top table, from which the naysayers are excluded.
Britain’s European seat is much less certain. Earlier in the year, George Osborne hectored the eurozone to follow the remorseless logic of monetary and integrate; the government’s thinking appeared to be that Britain could stand outside mainstream Europe and repatriate certain powers in peace. The government has since realised that it might be permanently exiled from Europe’s economic decision-making unless it become more proactive; it has therefore donned some marigolds and gone back into the mire, first with bilateral talks with Merkel and now with Sarkozy. Today, Cameron insisted that Britain is a ‘big player in the single market’: evidence of the change of emphasis.
But change has come at a cost. David Cameron has forsaken the grand repatriation of powers, having concluded that this is not the moment for confrontation. Instead, as James explained recently, he plans to ‘salami-slice’ concessions from the EU on the Working Time Directive and to protect the financial independence of the City. Above all, he plans to ensure that Britain is not affected by the Eurozone’s fiscal union — a point he made forcefully at the talks today. There are also rumours that Britain desires some oversight over the new-look Eurozone, arguing that this is necessitated by the incestuous economic ties between Europe states; this has some Eurocrats privately asking why Britain doesn’t simply join the single currency and fashion it as the Germans and the French seek to.
Cameron has had some success on the WTD, although there are reports that progress is in jeopardy. He vowed to return to the issue of European competitiveness after the crucial EU summit next Friday and there must be reasonable hope of success now that Sarkozy has pledged to reform the French labour market, which was, of course, a central tenet of his 2007 election campaign.
But there is significant tension between the two countries. Sarkozy has said that European countries should surrender some of their vetoes and grant Brussels some control over their budgets in order to improve the EU's functions and guard against reckless spending. Those expansive proposals would probably require treaty amendments that might trigger the referendum lock in this country. The recent Europe-squabble in parliament suggests that the government wants to avoid a referendum. Perhaps that is why Cameron appears intent on resisting Sarkozy's radical ideas. He remarked that integration and further financial measures could be made without a treaty change.
Plainly, the two leaders' vision of the Europe future differ. This is most apparent over financial regulation. Bagehot, in his Economist column this week, quotes French sources calling it “totally unacceptable” that British banks exist in deregulated competition across La Manche. The Eurozone, France argues, must have oversight of the City and its speculators.
This should be anathema to any British leader; but particularly to Cameron, who has to contend with his mutinous backbenchers. Cameron’s careful policy, on show in Berlin and Paris, may not assuage their concerns. Indeed, dissent was unbridled at a recent party held in honour of Robin Harris, who was once Mrs Thatcher’s adviser. A savage joke about Cameron being resolved only against conviction elicited gleeful cackles from the guests. All in all, it seems very long time since William Hague said that he would ‘not let matters rest’.
Previous
Verity
December 2nd, 2011 3:19pm Report this commentDavid B - "Best of times and the worst of times ...". V good!!
Publius
December 2nd, 2011 3:28pm Report this commentTwo liars meeting to work out how to stitch up the electorate.
Jeremy
December 2nd, 2011 3:34pm Report this commentDavid Blackburn:
'Sarkozy has said that European countries should surrender some of their vetoes and grant Brussels some control over their budgets in order to make the EU work better and guard against reckless spending. Such change might trigger the referendum lock in this country, which Cameron appears intent on avoiding: he remarked today that the necessary changes could be delivered without a treaty change.'
So is Cameron is saying that Britain could surrender its veto (do we still have one?) and control over its own budget to the EU without him having to ask the British people, in a referendum, whether or not they wish to become further absorbed into the European superstate?
jheath
December 2nd, 2011 3:46pm Report this commentSo Cameron supports Sarko's wish for a big bazooka to rescue French banks. And Frau Merkel with Signore Draghi will not give Sarko his wish without taking away French fiscal sovereignty (however it is dressed up) and giving it to a German based institution. Any sign of a UK strategy from the grinning Mr Cameron? No. Dithering like an affable version of Gordon Brown.
Has he noticed the moves to sideline Spain? The muscle flexing of the Dutch, Finns and Danes as guardians of fiscal propriety? Has he even looked for allies for any British cause?
A price for German hegemony over France will be a joint assault on the UK, especially the City.
wrinkled weasel
December 2nd, 2011 3:49pm Report this commentI have no idea if this is an accurate summation of the state of play but it makes my blood run cold. The idea that a Conservative Prime Minister is talking about giving up sovereignty without a referendum is in my opinion, treason.
I am tempted to suggest the Clarkson option, but then somebody might believe me and be offended.
Heartless P.
December 2nd, 2011 3:53pm Report this commentOh how wearisome!
Just get the H2B to produce the obligatory bit of paper and mouth some inanity about 'Peace in our time' and we'll know he's given way yet again.
No surprise there then.
Dave B
December 2nd, 2011 3:56pm Report this commentCameron's playing this brilliantly. Ask for trivial concessions, and be prepared to concede instantly.
JohnOfEnfield
December 2nd, 2011 3:57pm Report this commentCameron's Dad must be turning in his grave:
Panmure Gordon in difficulties and his son unsure about how much to give/take away from Europe.
Where are conviction politicians when you need them?
Heartless P.
December 2nd, 2011 3:57pm Report this commentNo WW! Let us not spare the sensitive tendency. The sooner "they" are taken outside and stood against the wall - the better.
daniel maris
December 2nd, 2011 4:02pm Report this commentYes, it is literally treason. And quite possibly illegal (not that any of our pathetic judiciary would ever declare it so). The FCO lawyers must be working overtime trying to find legal loopholes that will allow surrender of powers without the necessity of a referendum.
The supremacy of Parliament has become some ancient forgotten totem, that people genuflect before occasionally, though without understanding why they do so.
Thus does a nation fall into that long sleep that ends in extinction.
Peter From Maidstone
December 2nd, 2011 4:06pm Report this commentDear Weasel, just to say that I would not be offended were you to make such a suggestion.
David Blackburn
December 2nd, 2011 4:21pm Report this commentJeremy,
Apologies for my loose phrasing, that's not what Cameron is suggesting. I've expanded the paragraph to clarify the point.
Cynic
December 2nd, 2011 4:34pm Report this comment"David Cameron has forsaken the grand repatriation of powers, having concluded that this is not the moment for confrontation" Well, I am surprised.
graeme calver
December 2nd, 2011 4:49pm Report this commentDavid Camerons problem is simply that we are were we are - the euro imploding may seem like a good outcome, but would cast a deep economic shadow that would be in no ones interest. He is taking the only course which is in Britains' interest - help to "fix the euro" if possible, and then take it from there.
Dennis Churchill
December 2nd, 2011 4:58pm Report this commentWhat is really needed is to start with a blank sheet with regard to what is in the UK’s interests.
This is not 1700 0r 1800 let alone 1914.Why do we need to “Influence” continental Europe at all?
We run a massive trade deficit with them so trade seems assured. An ageing and feminised continent is not a military threat to us, or anyone else, so what do we get from paying billions into it and having culturally alien laws and an equally alien political culture imposed on us?
Time for a group of patriotic (strange word not used much in Britain but still common in France)Conservative MPs to tell Cameron they will put country before party and resign the whip unless a cost benefit analyses followed by a referendum on our membership of the EU is agreed.
After all Westminster is only the government of a province of the Franco-German federation, what does it matter what native administration holds power?
TGF UKIP
December 2nd, 2011 5:08pm Report this commentHo, ho, ho! Big problems, EU problems, for Britain's most Europhile leader since Heath1. Merkel and Sarkozy want a much wider treaty change than just the Eurozone and their aim will be to put Heath2 into a position of being apparently prepared to wreck the Eurozone just to protect the City of London. A position which will be vociferously opposed by LibDems, Labour, the Tory Left and all their friends at the Guardian and its broadcast edition. Standby folks for yet another u turn by and humiliation for Heath2. Now if only he hadn't opposed the referendum a few weeks back!
Meanwhile, an equally large dilemma across the Irish Sea where their very praiseworthy efforts to beat off Franco German attempts to encroach on their corporate taxation regime is now under immediate and more serious threat. Would be amazing if there wasn't some nostalgia for the old pound/punt link, for alongside the Krauts us Brits must suddenly seem not so bad after all.
David Dee
December 2nd, 2011 5:46pm Report this commentIt is not difficult to see that our useless,powewless and pantomime Pm is a friend of the middle-aged, overweight, unfit,pantomime and equally useless Jeremy Clarkson. They both are prone to making stupid and outrageous suggestions and then,too late, realising that they have not got any public support (except for the odd moron or two) try to back away from their statement by denying that they had ever said or promised anything of the sort and that they had obviously been misquoted !!!
Verity
December 2nd, 2011 6:04pm Report this commentDennis Churchill asks, "Why do we need to “Influence” continental Europe at all?"
Well, we don't. We have the US and the Commonwealth. Why would we want to hang out with those clapped out, tatty has-beens of Europe? Germany lost two world wars. Why would we want to be their best friend? We've got the Aussies, the Kiwis, the Indians, the Canadians, Singaporeans, Malaysians, Sri Lankans and some African bits and bobs, plus our N European neighbour Norway as a close family friend. Mixing around with Germans always ends in tears. Let's cleave to our own.
(On a side note, can we ditch Pakistan from the Commonwealth?)
Verity
December 2nd, 2011 6:07pm Report this commentPS - Beware David Cameron. He is aiming for the top table in Europe and is willing to ditch his countrymen to get it. The Tories have to ditch him before he ditches us. By tea time today would be good.
Dennis Churchill
December 2nd, 2011 6:37pm Report this commentVerity
December 2nd, 2011 6:04pm
I agree.
My point was that our political class, and the FCO, seem stuck in a past where for half a millennium we have had as our primary foreign policy objective limiting the power of any individual or group of European powers that could threaten us directly or our Empire.
This no longer makes sense. It really is of no consequence to us how the EU develops. Europe will not be a significant world power in the latter 21st century. It is ageing rapidly and its population is crashing. As a military power, well the question only has to be posed to be disposed.
strapworld
December 2nd, 2011 7:00pm Report this commentwrinkled weasel is on the money. Cameron must be tried for treason if the reports are accurate.
Now, let us see if the 'rebels' on the government benches have got the balls to kick ass and consider starting a real conservative party. This is going to get quite interesting
TrevorsDen
December 2nd, 2011 7:21pm Report this comment'whyn do we need an influence on the continent'? We have ALWAYS had an interest in influencing the continent. The thickos as ever expose their thickness.
I beliewve the confusion has been corrected buyt nowhere in the post does it suggest that Cameron is going to give over control of our budget.
We are not in the Euro - and never will be - but anyone who thinks that we cannot be influenced by the Eurozone or the EU (in or out) is living in dreamland.
Verity
December 2nd, 2011 7:43pm Report this commentStrapworld 7:00 p -- "Let's see if the rebels on the Government benches have the balls to kick ass."
And let's see if an anonymous multimillionaire puts a cheque for a million pounds in my mailbox this week.
Verity
December 2nd, 2011 7:51pm Report this commentDennis Churchill ... Yes, quite agree. The British "leadership", if I may so jest, is stuck in the past, and you are correct when you say that Europe is of little consequence to us politically. Our Commonwealth is where our natural roots, and our future, lie.
We've got to get rid of Cameron. He is a toxic little opportunist desperately giving away the family silver for a place at the top table in Brussels.
On balance, and it's a close-run thing, I think he and his dreadful wife and his windfarm tycoon father-in-law are even more toxic than the Blairs.
Cynic
December 2nd, 2011 7:53pm Report this comment@graeme calver "[Cameron] is taking the only course which is in Britains' interest - help to "fix the euro" if possible, and then take it from there." If possible. The problem is, the "solutions" are not solutions at all, they are merely delaying tactics. The euro is inherently flawed because of the differing economies yoked together. Still, we look like having a Franco-German Axis running the eurozone if Sarkomer get their way. Since I still can't see Germany stumping up permanently for the PIIGS with "fiscal union" (which is what we do for Scotland, etc), even this move probably won't fix it properly. It is in Britain's best interest for the euro to be dismantled in as orderly a manner as possible. The pain will be sharp in the short term, but we'll start to thrive afterwards and so will the PIIGS, just as being ejected from the ERM was the start of recovery.
Walter Ellis
December 2nd, 2011 8:57pm Report this commentTo judge from most of the comments on this and similar posts, UKIP should win the next election handsomely. And yet they won't. Why is this? Could it be because an actual – as distinct from a presumed – majority of the British people are perfectly okay with the EU. They no doubt wish that the euro had been better regulated and hope now to see a strong currency emerge. But do they want to say goodbye to their EU passports? I don't think so. An independent Britain? Sure thing. Bring on the empty aircraft carriers!
Dennis Churchill
December 2nd, 2011 10:08pm Report this commentWalter Ellis
December 2nd, 2011 8:57pm
UKIP doesn’t get mass support because centuries of security have made the British electorate complacent about politics and history makes them vote on class/tribal lines.
Modern political parties are marketed in the same way as major brands. Policies are influenced by single issue pressure groups from Animal Rights to Banking, from Man Made Global Warming to the European Union.
The balance of influence has been with the EU for the last 30 years. Unlimited money and almost unlimited patronage has allowed its advocates to buy our political class. Our education establishment had already been taken over by cultural Marxists and so that also helped form the opinions of the opinion formers. Things are changing. The cultural divide between the Anglosphere style politics imposed on continental Europe as part of the post World War 2 settlement has now broken down. The imposition of “Governors” in Italy and Greece and to a lesser extent the appointment ,without a single vote being cast for her, of “our” latest MEP represents too much of a clash of cultures to be sustained.
fergus pickering
December 3rd, 2011 7:47am Report this commentUKIP doesn't get mass support because the mass doesn't think that leaving Europe by next Tuesday is the most important question in politics now. And UKIP has no policies at all except that one. What does UKIP think should be our economic policy? Do they lean towards upping spending (the Balls policy) or towards cutting further (the Osborne policy)? What is their policy on Free Schools? What is their policy on benefits? What is... ?
FvH
December 3rd, 2011 9:35am Report this commentI love the way David B still pathetically clings to the fantasy that anybody really gives a flying f*** what Britain and France think about any of this
Ich bin ein doughnut etc
Dennis Churchill
December 3rd, 2011 10:16am Report this commentfergus pickering
December 3rd, 2011 7:47am
It would not matter as the establishment ensures they are starved of:”The Oxygen of Publicity” likes all political parties that are not part of the consensus.
What real policy differences are there between to ConLabLibs when you strip away the spin? A percentage point or maybe less in terms of debt reduction. Rhetoric on criminal justice and immigration but no real changes.
RocketDog
December 3rd, 2011 11:53am Report this commentRef UKIP. This whole Cultural Marxist inspired dystopia started when a bunch of student activists decided that they wanted to 'smash the establishment' and set about their purpose asymetrically - once it had become apparent that the ballot box probably wasn't going to deliver the brave new world that they all so earnestly desired.
UKIP is the same boot on the other foot. It may probably never take office in a meaningful way, but it can, and will, asymetrically damage the system that has evolved from the core beliefs of our student marxist activists, grown old and fat on soft revolution
Part of the beauty of UKIP is that to a degree it is 'underground' and that its adherents buy what it is not as much as a branded image of what it purports to be. If I was Mr Cameron I would be very careful with them
Dennis Churchill
December 3rd, 2011 12:20pm Report this commentFvH
December 3rd, 2011 9:35am
Yes either some way is found of selling a transfer union to the German electorate or an orderly dismantling of the currency needs to be implemented.
Old world views about “German Domination” are bizarre, there is a great deal of difference between occupying a country and subsidising its lifestyle .A bit like the difference between having a slave and a mistress with very expensive tastes.
FvH
December 3rd, 2011 6:19pm Report this comment@Dennis Churchill - like it !!
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