Balls’ blindness
Fraser Nelson 6:52pm
This week has marked something of a watershed in the British economic debate. The story
of the strike on Wednesday was not one of paralysis, but of resilience. There was an 85 per cent turnout in NHS staff; Cumbria council kept every office open as so few staff went on strike; Aussies
landing at Heathrow cleared passport control in record time, due to the large number of volunteers who were qualified with two days' notice.
As I say in my Daily Telegraph column today, the union leaders
went rather quiet afterwards: they misjudged the mood of the country. As has Ed Balls. He is attempting what economists call 'fiscal illusion' – talking about tax cuts and more spending, but
not talking about the real and debilitating effects of debt, as though you can have one without the other. Balls is intelligent and forceful, but blinded by his ideology and bloodlust. His is
a great strategy for the wrong country. It may go down well in Greece, but in Britain the public know we're midway through a massive contraction. Living standards are falling now, and will do so
for some time.
The irony is that Osborne is vulnerable. He promised a growth strategy — where was it? We have the worst inflation in Europe – why not mention it? Because Balls is uninterested in
anything that detracts from his simplistic, incredible narrative: that it's all to do with cuts. Labour is no longer the Workers' Party, no longer interested in the cost of living and other
day-to-day issues. It's almost entirely funded by the unions, who now rely on public sector workers as they once relied on factory workers.
With Labour reduced to being a pressure group for higher state spending, it's less relevant to the debate. As I've argued before, there's not much difference between the parties' fiscal position. But only the Conservatives are talking in a language which resonates with the public mood. Lucky old Osborne.



Previous






JohnPage
December 2nd, 2011 7:40pm Report this commentYour summary focuses on your nicely phrased criticisms of Balls. You were way too kind to Osborne. And you kept referring to "cuts". But as you know the Coalition is actually following the Balls debt strategy!
john miller
December 2nd, 2011 7:46pm Report this commentRight, let me be a bit less emotional.
Ok, Ed, the budgeted expenditure on interest payments on our national debt is a bit higher than what we spend on educating the cheeelddreen.
Now, when you tell me that we need to increase those interest payments, are you telling me we need to spend less on the cheellldren?
Or our Brave Soldiers?
Or our wonderful Doktors and Nurses?
Or do we just borrow more money to pay the interest? Because not even our looney Post-Modern Bankers could possibly recommend that "policy".
So what are we going to spend less on, Ed, because you want to pay more money to the damn capitalist pigs that lend you the money?
REPay
December 2nd, 2011 7:46pm Report this commentThe idea of Labour as the Public Sector party is not a weak position. Nearly a quarter of the population work for the state (including many who erroneously consider themselves to be privately employed such as GP's whose retirements as well as salaries are largely taxpayer funded) and many others are related to them or married to them. I had to listen to a lawyer friend worrying about his wife's teacher's pension...worth the same as his despite him funnelling 25% into his considerable income for years. Add to this the BBC's parti-pris position on the strikes and I think labour are in a good place. The Tories have never successfully made the case stick that Occupy the City should be camped outside Gordon Brown's house or for that matter Ed Balls. In three years time Labour promises of more state spending and blaming the banks and cuts for all our ills will see Balls next Chancellor.
daniel maris
December 2nd, 2011 8:01pm Report this commentReally, you seem to have lost contact with reality.
The government lost the argument, badly. It is evident in the facts of ministers like Francis Maude. They have been trying to say that there is a public sector pensions crisis. They have been caught out in a lie. The burden has been reducing with the porportion of GDP going down. With a 10-15% cut in public sector staff, this trend can only continue.
For a government to lose the argument can be pretty fatal - cross reference the Poll Tax which finished off Thatcher.
Labour are not mentioning inflation I imagine because it is not the thing that is in the forefront of people's minds. What matters now is your job, your child's prospect of getting work.
To a large extent the inflation effects are being hidden because people are retrenching their spending. When people have saved as much as they can then any inflation will certainly become an issue.
Labours problem is not being the voice of public sector unions. To a certain extent people discount that I think. The problem is the economic legacy - what went wrong on their watch. The Tories' case that they are clearing up Labour's mess is a powerful one.
Jeremy
December 2nd, 2011 8:02pm Report this commentSpot on, Fraser.
For me, the most surreal moment of the week came when Ed Balls told George Osborne, across the floor of the House of Commons, that now was the time to increase public expenditure.
The expression 'divorced from reality' hardly begins to account for it.
Widmerpool
December 2nd, 2011 8:10pm Report this comment@Fraser
It's not only the British Public with whom George Osborne's policies resonate, it's also the Chinese! After Osborne's Autumn Statement CCTV reported that the "young men of the UK Govt were quietly getting with cutting the deficit" whilst they have little time for the efforts of the Americans and Euro Zone. The Chinese Sovereign Wealth Fund with over $400 billion to invest have also been very critical of what they see as the bloated welfare state in China!
perdix
December 2nd, 2011 8:21pm Report this comment"Osborne promised a growth strategy.. " He mainly promised a deficit reduction strategy from which could come growth. As the OBR said growth has been limited because the last recession was deeper than believed, the Euro seized up and commodity prices sre unexpectedly high.
TrevorsDen
December 2nd, 2011 8:26pm Report this commentFurthermore the living standards we are supposed to be declining back to were created on the back of an unsustainable housing and borrowing bubble.
When a balloon bursts - are we surprised it shrivels back to its component parts
'Mandy
December 2nd, 2011 8:33pm Report this comment"The story of the strike on Wednesday was not one of paralysis, but of resilience. There was an 85 per cent turnout in NHS staff"
85% turnout by NHS staff on the day of a strike? You mean... They did... They didn't... Not completely clear why you are editor, Fraser.
Tiberius
December 2nd, 2011 8:48pm Report this commentIt is still the case that you make your own luck, Fraser.
Forlornehope
December 2nd, 2011 8:54pm Report this commentInflation is the mathematically inevitable consequence of correcting the overvalued sterling exchange rate. It permits incomes to "adjust" in real terms without headline pay cuts. The alternative is a fixed exchange rate, like the Euro, and none of us would want that, would we?
ButcombeMan
December 2nd, 2011 8:57pm Report this commentThe practical differrences between the Coalition and Labour is surely one mainly of rhetoric but rhetoric matters, both to the Chinese who want to invest here and to the UK voting public. It is about creating confidence in ability.
The two Ed's have this wrong, both are too connected and involved in the BIG BROWN MESS and have not had the wit to create a new agenda for a new and dangerous time.
This week also marked the beginnings of the emergence of overt internal opposition to the two Eds.
It could easily tear Labour apart. Fact is, the chose the brother without brains, the one in the grip of the Trade Unions, it shows.
Kingstonian
December 2nd, 2011 9:00pm Report this commentGood column Fraser - I thought the same when I read it in the Telegraph this morning.
A bit of originality wouldn't go amiss.
Widmerpool
December 2nd, 2011 9:34pm Report this commentSorry a rather significant typo on my last posting I meant the bloated Welfare State in the Eurozone not China!
China got rid of its Iron Rice Bowl{Welfare State} and cut back on its inefficient SOE's{Nationalised Industries] sometime ago. Possibly one of the reasons they have had such good growth?
MarryMeFraser
December 2nd, 2011 9:50pm Report this comment"a pressure group for higher state spending"?
Mr Nelson's application to No. 10 as chief spin doctor.
TrevorsDen
December 2nd, 2011 9:57pm Report this commentWell as for cuts Mr Page - local authorities are facing 25-28% cuts in spending over the next 4 years. Those seem like cuts to me.
'Mandy
December 2nd, 2011 10:23pm Report this commentJust read Taki's weekly input. Obviously gaga and needs a rest. Sad but true. Who has the balls?
daniel maris
December 2nd, 2011 10:56pm Report this commentWidmerpool,
No the Chinese have grown spectacularly because they have a pool of 400 million half-starved dirt poor peasants to draw on, because they make full use of state planning, because they steal intellectual property with no care whatsoever and because they shoot trade unionists in front of their families in order to enforce low wages - NOT because they are pursuing some Thatcherite wet dream for you.
Simon Stephenson.
December 2nd, 2011 11:00pm Report this commentFraser
I wish you wouldn't continue to praise Balls for his intelligence. I expect both Stalin and Hitler were intelligent, and bin Laden too, but as we should all know, an intelligent person with a closed mind is one of the most dangerous threats there can be to a peaceful and prosperous society.
People like Balls need to be hounded out of the political process - not encouraged to stay by being labelled as a positive contributor to it.
Andrew Kennard
December 3rd, 2011 12:24am Report this commentI could not agree with you more; Balls is useless. However to me that was obvious from the start. He has always come over as inarticulate and shifty so I cannot really see why the Labour party ever thought he would be an effective opponent against Osborne. Maybe it was commentators from the right like you praising him for being "forceful and intelligent" which made them think that he might make some headway. I only know him from his very undistinguished performances on television. He must be a million times better face to face to justify your praise of him. He is the gift that keeps giving to the Tory Party. Lucky old Osborne indeed.
MrJones
December 3rd, 2011 12:51am Report this comment"Labour are not mentioning inflation I imagine because it is not the thing that is in the forefront of people's minds."
Yeah it is. Labour aren't mentioning it because they're cushioned and haven't realised yet.
Frank P
December 3rd, 2011 1:08am Report this commentThe headline gives me an opportunity to forward my naughty niece's latest joke. Some may think it's a non sequiteur, but some may not:
>A Mafia Godfather finds out that Guido, his bookkeeper of 20 years, has cheated him out of $10,000,000. Guido is deaf, which is why he got the job in the first place.
The Godfather had assumed that since Guido could not hear anything, he could never testify in court.
When the Godfather goes to confront Guido about his missing $10 million, he takes along his personal lawyer because he knows sign language. The Godfather tells the lawyer,
"Ask him where the money is!"
The lawyer, using sign language, asks Guido, "Where's the money?"
Guido signs back, "I don't know what you are talking about."
The lawyer translates the reply,
"He says he doesn't know what you are talking about."
The Godfather pulls out a pistol, puts it to Guido's head and says, "Tell him it's his last chance; where's the money?"
The lawyer signs to Guido, "He'll kill you if you don't tell him."
Guido trembles and signs back, "OK! You win! The money is in a brown briefcase, buried
behind the shed at my cousin Bruno's house."
The Godfather asks the lawyer, "What did he say?"
The lawyer replies, "He says you don't have the balls to pull the trigger."
Huw Williams
December 3rd, 2011 5:33am Report this commentNever read such twoddle in my life, he must be in a different country
arnoldo87
December 3rd, 2011 7:13am Report this comment@ Polonius
"... an intelligent person with a closed mind is one of the most dangerous threats there can be to a peaceful and prosperous society."
Ah, oh wise one - if only we all had an open mind such as yours.....
Widmerpool
December 3rd, 2011 8:38am Report this comment@Daniel Maris
Have you ever been to China?
At least Clarkson has and they rather like him and Top Gear out there;it earns valuable export revenue for the BCC although I have to admit there are a lot of fake DVD’s s in China!
Judging by your visceral hate of the Lady I sense you have more sympathies with Communism than those in charge in China!
I know I have posted it before but it worth remembering what the Chinese Sovereign Wealth Fund think about the Welfare State in Europe:
“"the chairman of the supervisory board of China Investment Corporation, the country’s sovereign wealth fund, put further distance between China and the eurozone bail-out, saying that Europe’s bloated welfare state meant that people did not work hard enough.
“I think if you look at the troubles which happened in European countries, this is purely because of the accumulated troubles of their worn out welfare societies,” Jin Liqun said in an interview with Al Jazeera television. “I think the labour laws are outdated – the labour laws induce sloth, indolence rather than hard working. The incentive system is totally out of whack.”
Eurozone leaders had been hoping that China would use some of its trade surplus to back the bail-out fund"
IMHO one of the biggest disincentives for Chinese inward investors into the UK are the “outdated labour laws”, as they put it and strikes over public sector pensions will only reinforce this view.
JohnDClare
December 3rd, 2011 9:38am Report this commentMr Nelson must be congratulated - I cannot imagine a more spectacular misinterpretation of the last few days! I could not find a single sentence which did not fly in the face of all the facts.
This article will be a HUGE encouragement to Mr Balls and Labour - if the only response to recent events that the Tories can manage is this kind of flight from reality, the government will not survive much longer!
A wonderful piece of fantasy-thinking which had me laughing out loud - thank you Mr Nelson (you should really go on the stage!)
Simon Stephenson.
December 3rd, 2011 10:21am Report this commentarnoldo87 : 7.13am
I should forget about my mind, if I were you. I'm just a little guy making observations via the media in the hope that a few more people might test the strength of the foundations of their opinions, rather than treat them as solidified for life. I'm not in any sort of position to influence major decisions, so the openness, or otherwise, of my mind is of little importance.
On the other hand, Ed Balls, and others like him, are in a position to make decisions which impact on the lives of others, so I should have thought that the processes by which they make these decisions, and particularly any shortcomings in these processes, is a subject of some importance to us all.
Nicholas
December 3rd, 2011 10:38am Report this commentEd Balls reminds me of a German national socialist from the 1930's and he even looks like one. It doesn't help that his pronunciation of English is so imperfect and irritating.
Labour's hegemony are still New Labour and New Labour is still the party of authoritarian national socialism. They are fascists.
Simon Stephenson.
December 3rd, 2011 12:14pm Report this commentJohnDClare : 9.38am
"I could not find a single sentence which did not fly in the face of all the facts."
Try this one:-
"The story of the strike on Wednesday was not one of paralysis, but of resilience. There was an 85 per cent turnout in NHS staff; Cumbria council kept every office open as so few staff went on strike; Aussies landing at Heathrow cleared passport control in record time, due to the large number of volunteers who were qualified with two days' notice."
Which facts did this "fly in the face of"? Is the 85% NHS turnout claim inaccurate? Is it not true that all the Cumbria council offices were open? Was potential disruption at Heathrow passport control not nipped in the bud?
Surely the reality of the day's strike was that some aspects of it went as the unions hoped, and some aspects didn't. Trying to paint it as either wholly successful or a total failure is to treat the people with whom you are communicating as though they are half-witted.
Hugo Chav
December 3rd, 2011 12:35pm Report this commentBalls and Osborne are bit part players as we become an Undeveloping Nation.
The econo-politico elite who engineered the fiat credit ponzi are now telling us they know how to fix the implosion = QE to Infinity.
This econo-politico elite had phrases to explain their success:
1. Great Moderation - Ben Bernanke.
2. No More Boom and Bust - Gordon Brown.
3. Goldilocks - Banksters.
Now we have the real Goldilocks because Gold is the real deal and the way to protect your purchasing power as money printing becomes even more extreme as the tool to stop the ponzi crashing.
Hugo Chav
December 3rd, 2011 1:07pm Report this commentMay I just add that if the elite keep printing and bailing out the 1% there will be revolution.
Dimoto
December 3rd, 2011 2:28pm Report this comment"He is attempting what economists call 'fiscal illusion' – talking about tax cuts and more spending, but not talking about the real and debilitating effects of debt, as though you can have one without the other. Balls is intelligent and forceful, but blinded by his ideology and bloodlust".
Is that a polite way of saying that Balls is a lying, immoral toe-rag without an honest bone in his body ?
Hexhamgeezer
December 3rd, 2011 3:08pm Report this commentdaniel maris @ 2nd 10:56pm
Indeed, the Chinese are pursuing Balls' wet dream.
Paddy
December 3rd, 2011 3:32pm Report this commentI have never thought Balls intelligent. The same way I never thought Brown was intelligent......and as for Miliband.....well, least said the better.
Would you buy a used car from any of these men.
daniel maris
December 3rd, 2011 4:08pm Report this commentWidmerpool,
Your naivety never ceases to amaze me. You think China is a good friend of the UK offering us friendly advice on how to put our house in order? Pah!
China itself a deeply unhappy place composed of hundreds of millions of dirt poor peasants, colonised people governed by the racist Han, exploited industrial workers, and a corrupt oppressive elite presiding over a police state happily prepared to shoot its own people.
It's got nothing whatsoever to teach us.
Occasional Ostrich
December 3rd, 2011 4:48pm Report this commentSimon Stephenson. 2nd, 11:00pm
"an intelligent person with a closed mind"
I suppose we could make an argument that that is an oxymoron.
Sir Everard Digby
December 3rd, 2011 6:13pm Report this commentDaniel Maris,
We have a large current account deficit with China; I suggest that makes them bankers to us in one way or another -read their comments in that context.
Simon Stephenson.
December 3rd, 2011 7:20pm Report this commentOccasional Ostrich : 4.48pm
You could, but I think you'ld be wrong. Intelligence is not the same as knowledge, education, awareness or understanding. As I hinted earlier, it seems unlikely that Hitler, Stalin or bin Laden would have been able to reach the positions of power that they did if they had not been intelligent.
daniel maris
December 3rd, 2011 8:20pm Report this commentSir Everard Digby,
Yes, the trade deficit just underlines how bonkers we are to trade with them, to export our technology to them, and to enable them to build up their military power. We should be making life difficult for the Communist dictatorship not easy.
Major Plonquer 1
December 4th, 2011 2:54am Report this comment"He is attempting what economists call 'fiscal illusion' ".
Isn't it great that economists even have created a technical definition for 'talking out of his arse'. Maybe they're paid too much?
Simon Stephenson.
December 4th, 2011 8:07am Report this commentdaniel maris : 8.50pm
Yes, but your thinking is a bit long-term to become popular, I fear. Where would we be if the general public had to pay a home-produced price for their clothing and their gadgets? Good grief, they'd no longer have enough credit available to pay for the new carpets, curtains and three-piece suites to complete the half-yearly makeovers of their sitting-rooms. And what about the poor old dog? How's he supposed to feel if family belt-tightening deprives him of his weekly trip to the beautician? And what would the neighbours think if the dog just looked like any other dog?
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