The referendum question

Nickle

New treaty - referendum.

Very simple.

However the lying scum in Westminster do not do democracy, they dictate.

Dennis Churchill

This will come down to whether the nationalists within the Conservative parliamentary party are prepared to threaten to bring the government down.
There are more of them than LibDem MPs so by resigning the whip they would remove the coalition’s majority.
The other question is the attitude of the party membership, how will they react to what will be taken as a blatant betrayal?
Conservative MPs need to consider whether it really matters which party or group of parties holds power in Westminster if it is merely a province of a Franco-German controlled federal government.
How the party must regret electing Cameron.

Publius

"the impossible task of a grand repatriation of powers"

Is that your view, Mr Blackburn? If so, then I despise you for it.

Craig Strachan

The euro can only be saved at the price of a federal superstate under German direction. I'd be surprised if Eurosceptics think that's a price worth paying.

TrevorsDen

What the Eurozone proposes to do is their business.
Assuming that other matters that would affect us can be vetoed by those powers still left to us by labour then there should be no need for a referendum.

TrevorsDen

What a load of cobblers Mr Churchill - as if being out of the EU and being in trade disputes with the EU would make any difference.

What the Eurozone want to do is their business. Taxes that might be levied disproportionately on us are our business and we can veto them.

Justathought

The Merkosy option is for a quick treaty amendment sidestepping awkward referenda across the EU. The Euro will only be considered sound money if it is backstopped by the ECB.

The UK will avoid a veto on this amendment on the advice of the advice of the City hoping that a FTT can be postponed, supported by the Bank of England, the US Treasury and the FCO.

The idea that the UK would be instrumental in bringing down the euro and therefore the EU is beyond comprehension.Nor is it likely that MP's here will bring down the government because no referendum. This will be seem by many as a broken promise but for others protecting our interest both here and abroad.

Barbara

The Conservative party are on the brink, their membership is declining, their activists almost gone, they have much to lose if Cameron goes the wrong way or does not get enough repatriation of laws from Brussels. They know it. UKIP is waiting in the wings and it's wing's are flapping loudly. Its memeberships is growing and so to is it's popularity. Cameron as made far to many promises and then broken them, so why should be believe him now? Does he really know what he's up against in Germany, Merkel is a smooth operater, and will protect her country's interests firstly then the euro, and won't care one jot for the UK. Feelings run deeply over there as they do here. France is in deep trouble, their banks need German cash to survive and Sarkozy knows it.
Cameron is playing a dangerous game with this nations freedom; the people don't like it and he may be rewarded with less seats than he as now. Clegg, hopefully, will be sent to Coventry, and his party into oblivion, for their betrayal. Labour, God help us if they were to regain power, with Ed Balls at the helm of the accounts we'd be in deeper trouble than we are now. So, what alternative do we have, we have to go along with Cameron till we get another chance to vote. OR. if the Tory MPs have the bottle to sort Cameron out once and for all, after all none will have any influence if we are drawn into tighter union with the EU, which the country do not want. We will now see if we have more than 81 MPs with some bottle, who put he freedom of this country and it's parliament before political party, some how I don't think the will.

Publius

Clearly word has gone out from Central Office to soften people up for yet another shameful capitulation.

Dennis Churchill

TrevorsDen
December 4th, 2011 4:36pm
Which post are you referring to?

Dennis Churchill

Justathought
December 4th, 2011 4:38pm
This seems a rather short term strategy, even for our political class.
The government and in particular the Conservative party can’t keep running scared of a referendum.
Think about the assumption behind this fear, it is that membership of the European Union has no majority popular support among the British electorate. So how can Britain be both considered a democracy and continue to have so much of its sovereignty subservient to an organisation that is not supported by the electorate?

TomTom

Since there will be bilateral treaties as an overlay through the EuroZone Group Britain will not be involved. Cameron can only get involved with The Six by joining the Euro, but Britain is an even bigger source of instability to the EuroZone than it has at present. Britain won't join and Cameron won't be having a Referendum because Britain is not involved except as a Spectator

daniel maris

Hang on - IDS refers to a MAJOR treaty change. Plenty of wriggle room there: "Don't worry - it's not a major treaty revision - we're just approving a little thing called fiscal union."

boudicca

Barbara
December 4th, 2011 4:52pm

Judging by the Feltham By-Election, you are quite right about CON activists almost gone. There are none to be seen.

UKIP has a well organised and well supported campaign which was ready to go the day the By Election was called. I was out delivering leaflets today and we are getting a very good reception.

Apparently, the local CONservative Association is stunned by our campaign and the impact we are having.

THIS is the future for the CONservative Party nationally if they don't ditch Cameron and change policy on the EU. They will only change when they finally understand that the CONservative Party will NEVER AGAIN win a GE with a majority and may NEVER AGAIN even be the biggest party in a Coalition.

We must support UKIP to make it happen.

Dennis Churchill

daniel maris
December 4th, 2011 5:48pm
The semantics really don’t matter. The European Union is about to be thrown up in the air and the pieces put back together in a very unpredictable shape.
The core issue is the one I referred to above: The lack of a democratic mandate in the UK.
Our political class can’t keep ignoring the elephant in the room by running scared of a referendum the outcome of which they believe will not suit them.
When the values and culture of a political class become so detached from the majority there can only be one outcome.
Let’s just get this nonsense over with and start putting our society back together with laws and a culture that conforms to the values of the majority.

strapworld

boudicca. How much your post reminded me of my week with Ukip at the Hartlepool Bye Election (following Mandleson's resignation). Kilroy Silk stopped the traffic when thousands flooded unto the streets wanting to shake his hand.People greeted us warmly and things looked promising. Ukip did not win. It was then I realised that Ukip had so many good people involved but the leadership was stale and wore blinkers.I left the party shortly afterwards.

I am sorry but Ukip will only start winning Parliamentary seats when conservative MP's join them and make the party electable. That is why the most important post on this is at 3.51pm from Dennis Churchill.

Let us see if those 'rebels' have really got the balls to call Cameron's bluff. It would be good if the Conservative Association in Hague's constituency called him to account and demanded he supported a referendum or face re-selection. Now that would be a front page story I would l o v e to read.

Trevors Den stop waving that white flag please.

TrevorsDen

Mr Churchill I am referring to your hysterical scenarios.

We have nothing to do with the Euro - why should conservatives bring the govt down over it and bring in labour?

TrevorsDen

How can I put it -? Your all stark staring bonkers.

Boudicca

strapworld
December 4th, 2011 6:50pm

Thanks for your response.

I think things have moved on a lot for UKIP since the unfortunate episode of Kilroy-Silk. I don't expect us to win Feltham - although we should beat the LibDims and prevent the CONs from winning the seat.

It will focus the minds of ALL Conservative MPs if UKIP are seen to be having a significant effect on the outcome of elections. There has been a series of local government elections recently where UKIP has narrowly missed winning the seat - Wrotham, Kent and Haselmere, Surrey amongst others. In Mole Valley, we prevented the Tory candidate from winning.

For CONservative MPs, the prospect of losing their seats at the next GE may be enough to trigger a change of heart and put something more robust than jelly in their spines.

But I agree - what is needed is for Conservative MPs to rebel and even better, for some to switch to UKIP.

Mycroft

" THIS is the future for the CONservative Party nationally if they don't ditch Cameron and change policy on the EU. They will only change when they finally understand that the CONservative Party will NEVER AGAIN win a GE with a majority and may NEVER AGAIN even be the biggest party in a Coalition.

We must support UKIP to make it happen. "

This is just like Labour during the Thatcher era: divide the right, and all you will achieve is the return of Labour. And we know what happened the last time they were in government. UKIP will never ever win a seat in the British parliament. (Though I vote for them in European elections.)

Dimoto

Whatever Merkozy hatch, the Eurozone will remain unstable, as southern Europe is forced into penury. The Eurozone is on borrowed time.

However, a few years of tranquility will give us the breathing space to bring the deficit under control and rebuild the economy.

If the Europhobes bring the government down, Labour will be back, and they won't hesitate to approve the "treaty change" together with any other "progressive regulation" the incoming French socialist administration might suggest.
(remember the famous Slovakian "No" to the Lisbon treaty ?)

Of course, the election would be on the subject of "Tory cuts", against a vanishing LibDem rump and a hopelessly split Tory party - stand by for another 10 years of Ballsonomics.

Dennis Churchill

strapworld
December 4th, 2011 6:50pm
Yes, I agree, it will be defections that kick start the process.
What TrevorsDen and other partisan political tribalists ,whether they be Conservatives or Labour, don’t seem to understand, or possibly refuse to accept, is the Westminster parliament and which party controls it ,is not really very relevant to the government of this country any more. Most laws come from the EU and the amount of discretion available to parliament is so limited we might as well ignore it.Judges, not politicians, decide on who can or cannot live in this country. Judges decide on prison conditions. Judges increasingly decide on everything and soon may even decide what can be reported as being said in parliament.
A breakaway group of Conservative MPs with some well known names such as Duncan Smith, Redwood and Cash would give UKIP the credibility to hold at least the balance of power following an election. They would take votes from Labour as well as Conservatives and many local Conservative Associations would simply cross over in mass.

Dennis Churchill

Dimoto
December 4th, 2011 8:01pm
A Labour government would not last half a term.Why? Because Ballsonomics is not that dissimilar from Cleggonomics with regard to the so-called Cuts. The difference is Labour’s paymasters would not allow the reductions.
We are in for a dreadful time regardless of the party in power and the pain will be felt by Labour’s traditional supporters more than the Conservatives.
It does not matter which party is in power and Tribalists need to get used to that. It is Pepsi or Coke.
Look at the change of government in Ireland. That is the future. Vote for whoever you want you will still get the same policies.

Hepworth

@Dennis Churchill "Vote for whoever you want you will still get the same policies".
The most sensible comment on this post. The problem we then have is do we vote at all?
That leaves us in an even worst position.
It seems strange that we're on a mission to grant Democratic rule to the world and yet our voices in our own land are ignored. Weird.

Dimoto

Dennis Churchill:

It's interesting.
A week ago, the prognosis was fairly benign.
Then, Robert Chote (OBR) came out with his latest projections for government budgetting.

Given the appalling state of the Eurozone, Chote came up with some pretty austere projections (although, without assuming a collapse of the Euro).

Of course, our rent-a-quote Bank governor chimed in to pile more gloom upon the gloom, and suddenly everyone is suicidal.

These are PROJECTIONS.
If Merkozy cobble something half credible together, there will be a huge rally and a turnaround in confidence.
Who knows what will happen.

You can be sure of one thing - Chote's projections are most unlikely to be accurate, projections never are.

Mudplugger

New treaty, changed treaty, major changed treaty ? Who cares ?

The referendum we want/need is the simple IN/OUT choice.

Nothing short of that will resolve this pulsating wound. Then, whatever the outcome, we all know what we're dealing with. Game over.

Dennis Churchill

Hepworth
December 4th, 2011 8:53pm
Yes but it all depends on what we mean by “Democratic”.
The version we have in the UK and the wider European Union would not be thought very democratic by our grandparents. They defined it as living in a free country with the freedom to hold and express views the political establishment disapproved of. We have Thought Crimes and accept that there are Politically Correct and Politically Incorrect views and it is legitimate to suppress the latter using the law. We have Family Courts that meet away from public gaze and whose verdicts are not allowed to be reported despite them being able to seize children who can then be adopted against their parents’ wishes.

Heartless P.

Whatever it is that HeathChamberoon thinks he has obtained, - or will obtain, - from Merkozy, he hasn't, - except his own capitulation.

And that may be what the H2B wanted all along.

Dennis Churchill

Dimoto
December 4th, 2011 9:04pm
If the Franco-Germans cobble something together that will just buy us time: and not much. The fact that the Euro is a flawed project is only one, albeit serious, problem we have.
We have constructed a society that is unstable economically and socially and it is because we have both problems we will not easily solve either.
We can’t afford the welfare state we have or state sector the size of the one we have allowed to develop. We have allowed Equal Outcomes to be used as a performance indicator for Equal Opportunities and taken deterrence and punishment out of the criminal justice system.
No, regardless of any rabbits that can be drawn from the Euro Hat the West is in for a rough time. Europe is in for a very rough time and we are up to our necks regardless.

Cynic

"However, the good news for the Cameron is that the crisis appears to have shaken some Eurosceptic resolve, so long as he ensures that British sovereignty is not the price of stabilising the eurozone." What about the electorate? Too much sovereignty has already been lost. We want our country back. We suspected that the referendum lock would merely be a matter of weasel words and they would wriggle out of it. Lib, Lab or Con they are three shades of the same treachery.

Cynic

"UKIP will never ever win a seat in the British parliament. (Though I vote for them in European elections.)" Of course they won't if people take that attitude, Mycroft. If they're worth a vote in the EU parliament, they are definitely worth putting your X against in the British version. If everybody who voted as you do switched to UKIP in a general election, there would be UKIP MPs.

daniel maris

Part of the problem with UKIP is that it is a right wing party rather than a nationalist party. Its policies are kind of Adam Smith Institute, anti-union, sub-Thatcherite. For that reason, I don't think it can deliver on the independence agenda, in the way the SNP does in Scotland.

daniel maris

This is what the COnservatives said in their manifesto:

"We have introduced a Bill in order to amend the 1972 European Communities Act so that any proposed future treaty that transferred areas of power, or competences, would be subject to a referendum on that treaty - a 'referendum lock'. "

No mention of the transfer of powers being from the UK to the EU, on transfer of powers or competences, if we are going to get legalistic about it.

In fact, if we don't have a referendum where is the protection against a subsequent government simply deciding to accept the Euro and the fiscal union? Surely that's the point: we want a referendum that makes it impossible for any UK government to take us into a fiscal union without a further referendum. As far as I can see, we wouldn't have that protection unless we have a referendum. At the very least we need an opt out that requires a subsequent treaty revision to allow us into a fiscal union.

I don't trust the so called sceptic Cameron one inch on this. He is not a Eurosceptic. He is a Eurofan.

Boudicca

Mycroft.

"This is just like Labour during the Thatcher era: divide the right, and all you will achieve is the return of Labour. "
-----------

In the words of Balls "so what." Vote LibLabCON and we get government by the EU. The CONservative Party isn't 'right-wing,' It is a blue-tinged copy of NuLabour; socialist and under the control of the EU.

It makes little difference which branch of the LibLabCON one-party-state is doing the EU's dirty work.

There are no significant differences between the 3 'main parties.' Despite all the sound and fury on the so-called cuts, there is minimal difference between their policies.

Who cares if it is Cameron or Miliplonker bending over to be shafted by Brussels? I don't.

I want my country back and that's what I'm voting and working for.

Hexhamgeezer

Whatever is decided by Merkozy requires a referendum here.

I reject totally the idea (on any grounds)that it is in our interests to help save the Euro (the arrogance that we could!). And only frothing pro-euro swivel-eyed euroloons would entertain the idea.

Admit it dave; you are a weak left of centre
federalist who is happy to shadow whatever the likes Merkozy, barroso or von Rumpy lay at your door while putting on your stern 'I'm a right Erosceptic, Me!' face

Andy Leeds

If UKIP had any oil in their lamps they would not contest UK General Elections or by-elections, but concentrate on EU Elections where they systems gives them huge clout. For UK General Elections they ought to help the Tories and by doing so at a local level they will be able to influence the candidates so you get far more Eurosceptics in the House. You already are getting that. But if UKIP stand in Tory areas all they do is let LibDems or Labour in. And that is not what anyone wants !

Vulture

@Andy Leeds:
If what you say is correct Andy, and UKIP is opening the way to Lab/Lib victory, the solution is in the Tories' hands: adopt UKIP policy on Europe and UKIP will cease to exist.

If they are not willing to do so we shall all know the truth: that the Tory leadership are merely Europhile wolves in sceptic sheep's clothing.

So the logic is inescapable: vote UKIP if you want to force the Tories to change course.

RKing

This will be the question which Cameron will put to the people:-

"We should not want to leave or stay in the EU"

Vote "YES" or "NO"

Then he will have a clear mandate to do whatever he wants!!

Steve Tierney

Speaking as a lifelong Conservative, activist, blogger, fundraiser, campaigner, branch chairman and councillor - If there's ANY sort of treaty change, there must be a referendum. I may be just one footsoldier, but there are many more just like me who feel the same way.

Tiberius

Based on the above, I'd give one piece of advice to UKIP supporters: don't ever get involved in a game of poker.

Paul

Why should we have a referendum on an agreement between the Eurozone members? What would it achieve? Its got nothing to do with us. Whether we vote yes or no they can agree things between themselves if they want. The referendum only happens if there are changes resulting in a transfer of sovereignty.

As for all the Eurosceptic/UKIP eyeswivellers on here, carry on doing your best to destroy the Conservatives. Even if MPs did defect to UKIP the problem for you is that the vast majority of people simply DON'T CARE about Europe. It matters to you but not to 90% of people.

The EU is a club with rules, we obey them as long as we want to be part of the club. If we wanted to trade with the EU we'd have to obey a lot of their regulations anyway, just like Norway does. In foreign affairs and defence we all go our seperate ways anyway, regardless of what the treaty says, and on economics we're out of the Euro.

So what is the problem?

Publius

Tiberius writes:
"don't ever get involved in a game of poker."

I might have been taken in by this variation of "trust us we know what we're doing" once. But I'm afraid that it is yet another tactic that has been used too often.

Would you like to explain what precisely were the poker-playing aspects of the Cast Iron Guarantee? ...Or, indeed, Gordon Brown's promise that there would be no more treaty changes for a generation?

Publius

@Paul (1.28)
"Why should we have a referendum on an agreement between the Eurozone members?" etc.

Did TrevorsDen write your piece for you? There is an astonishing correspondence of tone and overall stupidity.

I suggest you read up on John Redwood's latest piece on this for a quick summary of why it matters and how it affects us. But you can find the answers all over the place if you care to look.

Hexhamgeezer

But Paul (@ 1:28pm) people DO care about Europe, it's just that eurobot stalinists like yourself hide the link between such minor issues as food, work, immigration, health, VAT, etc, and the EU.

Check out the 2009 MEP election results and the party which beat Labour, the LibDems, Greens, and BNP.

Try dishing up some facts to go with the insults you cretin.

Tiberius

Publius: it's a fair question.

The first point is that whether we like it or not, we are engaged with the EU. The Irishman's option of not starting from here is not available.

Brown didn't even know the rules of the game. And it may turn out that Cameron plays his hand badly.

But UKIP doesn't even keep its hand close to its chest. That's the difference.