Owen Paterson: A referendum on the EU is inevitable
James Forsyth 2:34pm
It is becoming increasingly clear what the Conservative party expects of its Prime
Minister. If he is going to agree to 17 eurozone countries pushing ahead with the Franco-German plan for fiscal union, he needs to secure a new deal for Britain in exchange.
Just what this new deal should look like is a matter of intense debate in Conservative circles. If France and Germany turn the eurozone into a ‘fiscal union’, what does that mean for
Britain’s standing in the European Union? At the weekend, Iain Duncan Smith suggested that the nature of the EU would change so much that a referendum would be necessary. No. 10 quickly ruled
that out. Cameron confided to Cabinet colleagues on Monday that he feared another referendum would bring down the coalition. But by Tuesday night, he was pledging to veto any treaty that did not
contain safeguards for the City of London.
Many ministers are inclined to go to ground as soon as they hear Europe mentioned. But when I meet Owen Paterson, the Northern Ireland Secretary and one of the few representatives of the Tory right
in the Cabinet, he has plenty to say. He starts by talking about Northern Ireland but pretty soon we turn to the EU.
‘There is no question, if they effectively create a new country, that is absolutely their right to do so. It does run counter, of course, to 300 years of British foreign policy in trying to
avoid that happening. But if that is the way out of the conundrum on the euro, I think we have to respect that. But they have to respect the fact that it will create a brand-new relationship for
us,’ he says in a matter-of-fact manner from across the breakfast table.
Paterson is refreshingly free of the pomposity that grabs so many Eurosceptics when the subject of Europe comes up. But his message is clear. He warns that the EU17 would become ‘a new and
very powerful country which can dominate us’. His concern is that a fiscally united eurozone will spend as a bloc, tax as a bloc — and, when it comes to European summits, vote as a
bloc. As he points out, thanks to the Lisbon Treaty, the eurozone bloc will be big enough to gets its own way on all issues that are governed by qualified majority voting.
‘It is wholly unacceptable to have a new bloc in which we would be permanently outvoted,’ Paterson says. Like Cameron, he is particularly concerned about what this might do to the City
of London, a financial district without equal anywhere else in Europe. ‘Bluntly, they may well go ahead and in effect create a new country, with very central control of taxation and transfer
of funds to weaker areas. But if they want to go ahead and form their new country, we want to get the power to run our country back.’
Such language is all the more striking from Paterson because this Cambridge history graduate is the very opposite of the Little Englander. He is fluent in French and German and his idea of fun is
spending the summer holidays racing across Mongolia on horseback with his wife. He represents the new Eurosceptic mainstream of the Conservative party — and is not embarrassed about it.
‘We have got to get away from this caricature that it is boring Tories banging on about Europe. This affects every single person whether they are in Enniskillen, Edinburgh or Eccleshall. It
is not Europe, it is our daily government.’ The EU, he says, ‘affects every single activity from the moment we get up in the morning to the time we go to bed at night’. The phrase
‘banging on about Europe’ was, of course, popularised by David Cameron himself.
Yet it would be wrong to cast Paterson as a rebel. Throughout our interview, almost every point is buttressed by his belief that he is at one with the Prime Minister. ‘David Cameron said
change brings opportunities,’ he says. ‘This is an opportunity to begin to refashion the EU, so it better serves the nation’s interests and the opportunity in Britain’s case
for powers to ebb back instead of flow away. I entirely agree with the Prime Minister — this is a great opportunity.’ There are at least half a dozen such references.
For Paterson, this is as much about economic recovery as sovereignty. His experience as managing director of the British Leather Company in the 1990s and his Shropshire-born-and-bred common sense
— at one point in the interview he refers to ‘metropolitan smartypants’ — explains a very practical Euroscepticism.
‘Hardly a Cabinet meeting goes past when an issue isn’t raised where we are being stopped by some form of European regulation,’ he observes. He also isn’t confident that EU
rules are fairly applied. ‘I have constituents who are enormous egg producers, they have invested £25 million in making their cages compliant [with new EU regulations] by January. They
know perfectly well that a significant number of their competitors across the continent are going to be illegal. But there is no proposal to bring those people to heel. So if we can’t even
control the market on the egg industry, how are we going to trust them on financial derivatives when we are going to be in a minority?’
So what will happen next? Despite Paterson’s protestations, it is far from certain that Cameron will use this moment to bring powers back to Britain. At the moment the Prime Minister is
simply pledging that he’ll demand ‘safeguards’ for the City of London at this week’s European Council meeting. He appears unwilling to obstruct anything that might be seen
as a solution to the eurozone crisis. He is also in coalition with the most pro-European party in British politics. How does Paterson see the conflict?
‘I am not sure the Liberal Democrats are quite as homogenous as everyone makes out,’ he says. ‘They are great supporters of localism and I would have thought having more decisions
made locally would be something they would go along with.’ Intriguingly, he suggests that the coalition could survive an EU referendum that pitted the two partners against each other.
‘We went through an AV referendum which was completely binary — the Conservative party said it was black and the Liberals said it was white. We couldn’t have been more opposed to
each other. There were a few ups and downs. But the coalition survived.’
Unlike the Prime Minister, Paterson does not accept the logic that a treaty change to create even closer union between the eurozone countries would not affect the balance of power between
Westminster and Brussels. ‘If there was a major fundamental change in our relationship, emerging from the creation of a new bloc which would be effectively a new country from which we were
excluded, then I think inevitably there would be huge pressure for a referendum.’
When I push him on whether a referendum would be required, he replies: ‘I think there will have to be one, yes, because I think the pressure would build up. This isn’t going to happen
immediately because these negotiations are going to take some months. But I think down the road that is inevitable. ‘
Again, all of this is said with approving references to Mr Cameron’s speeches. Paterson argues that now is the moment for the Prime Minister ‘to pursue his aims which have been very
publicly declared’. Addressing the EU would, he argues, be a way to make Britain more competitive.
Regulation, he says, is not just a headache but the thief of time. ‘Government can wreck a business by confiscating its money by taxation. But confiscating its time is absolutely critical
too, and I think, sadly, not enough people in government have tried to run a small business. Time that small businesses devote to regulation is time they are not ringing up a customer, not looking
at the product or visiting a supplier. And that I think that is not understood.’ He doesn’t say by whom.
When I ask him if he thinks Cameron will deliver on Europe, he replies, ‘Yes because he has made it completely clear in public and in private that he does understand this.’ He believes
that ‘at least 80 to 90 per cent’ of the Tory party want some form of renegotiation. Citing among other things the recent Commons rebellion by 81 Conservative MPs on the EU referendum
motion, he observes that ‘the mood has really changed and has definitely hardened up and has to be respected’.
If Cameron does not appreciate this new reality, then he could be about to enter the most dangerous period of his premiership.
Previous
Dave B
December 7th, 2011 2:52pm Report this commentMr Patterson's point about time is a very important one.
Craig Strachan
December 7th, 2011 3:00pm Report this commentOwen Paterson: " It does run counter, of course, to 300 years of British foreign policy in trying to avoid that happening"
Yes, the 300 years were about trying to prevent any single power from dominating the continent. And for the past 100-plus years, the particular single power in question has been Germany. So an EU superstate under German supervision would be, um, a bit of a setback.
Matt
December 7th, 2011 3:01pm Report this commentLike many Spectator Readers, I voted for a Common Market,nothing else. We must repatriate powers, establish a relationship with Europe akin to Norway. The other option is to leave.We must have a referendum. Whatever the talking that is going on, inevitably, the Euro is going to ,at the worst, disintegrate. The social upheavals and the inevitable rise in Nationalism is not a future to relish. We need to stand aside from this
Vulture
December 7th, 2011 3:03pm Report this commentThe sooner the Tories get rid of the useless and treacherous Dave and make this man their leader, the sooner will they clean up electorally and begin the business of reclaiming the country after decades of dereliction.
Suddenly it seems as if Christmas has come a little early. If you tell me he wants to restore capital punishment and is Nick Ridley's son-in-law into the bargain, James, I swear I'll believe in Santa again.
C'mon you Tories, what are you waiting for? Drop the dead donkey Dave now!
PayDirt
December 7th, 2011 3:13pm Report this commentSo why risk a referendum if the writing is on the wall, just renegotiate the UK out of any Treaty that replaces existin; don't bother to ask the man in the street, just do it.
Halcyondaze
December 7th, 2011 3:14pm Report this commentOh Forsyth how transparent you are! "Refreshingly free from the pomposity that grabs so many Eurosceptics". But of course no mention of the utter contempt that exudes from the Europhile traitors - of which Cameron is one - who conspire to silence the British people while they deconstruct our country! And WHY did Number 10 quickly rule out IDS's suggestion of a referendum? What sheer arrogance! What gives Cameron the right to break his promises and the Lib/Lab/Con the right to ignore the will of the people and spit on our democracy? This will not go away Cameron.
telemachus'
December 7th, 2011 3:22pm Report this commentBollock Paterson
Dave will wriggle out of referendum AND treaty changes for the UK
We will be in the glorious outer group
Bill Brinsmead
December 7th, 2011 3:23pm Report this commentBlimey, this tosh by young Mr Forsyth suggests he is impressed to the point of being smitten.
Hexhamgeezer
December 7th, 2011 3:31pm Report this comment'the very opposite of the Little Englander'
'pomposity that grabs so many eurosceptics'
This is the sort of Goebellsian shite you would expect in the Guardian.
So its only eurostalinists like clegg that can speak languages is it? And, of course, you couldn't accuse eurobot europhiles of pomposity as they disregard referenda or remove elected governments with impunity could you?
Please stop abusing the word 'logic' btw
CiF? Lets call this SiF (Spectator is Fd)
TrevorsDen
December 7th, 2011 3:31pm Report this comment'if' ... the reality is they are not going to create a new country. Loony tories like Patterson are getting worked up - 'new country'.... don't you think Ireland Spain Portugal etc might have a bit of interest in that?
They are in a currency union already and now they are being asked to actually behave as if they are. Thats not a new country. Will Ireland join the army of the 'new country'.
The Euro already exists, the notion that we should suddenly decide to leave the EU as a belated result is pathetic. The Euro countries have already lost their fiscal sovereignty when they joined the Euro.
The issue is that this new arrangement bundles things in it that at not in our interest. Cameron can and should stop that.
If this 'new country' is somehow bad for us in the EU then how bad would it be for us out of it?
TrevorsDen
December 7th, 2011 3:38pm Report this commentBTW if we were out of the EU and still wanted some sort of trading status then Mr Patterson's constituents would still have to comply with their cage sizes and other single market rules.
dunderheid
December 7th, 2011 3:47pm Report this commentWhat the hell is a point of referendum on this?
Either we vote yes and get dominated by the inner bloc of EU17 or vote no and leave the EU and errr...get dominated by the EU of 27.
Jeremy
December 7th, 2011 3:48pm Report this commentJames,
A cartoon as good as the one at the top of your post is, deserves to be on the front cover of the magazine.
Andrew Fletcher
December 7th, 2011 3:49pm Report this commentTory Wars 2
This time the Wets will lose
Cameron will not escape the anger of the party
He will be fatally damaged by this euro sell out
He will be forced out before the next GE - he won't be missed - too much talk the talk not enough walk the walk - all lovely speeches and firm hand gestures - not enough action
Now is the time to do it because Labour are unelecteable so long as Ed Red is leader
Stalking horse in 2012 - gone in 2013
Dennis Churchill
December 7th, 2011 3:49pm Report this commentYou only have to rephrase the question as: “will the British people never get a referendum on their contuied membership of the EU despite a sizable proportion being against that membership?” to see how contrary to our political culture and unsustainable the present position is.
As for 300 years of policy dedicated to preventing the emergence of a European Superpower, that was when there was a military threat. Europe is an ageing continent. Within a generation a third or more of the major European powers’ populations will be over 65.This is not the type of society that is a military threat to anyone.
Rhoda Klapp
December 7th, 2011 3:49pm Report this commentTD, still running that tired argument which has been demolished so many times?
michael
December 7th, 2011 3:51pm Report this comment17 nations dominated by one .... how long before democracy breaks out again.
Dennis Churchill
December 7th, 2011 3:53pm Report this commentTrevorsDen
December 7th, 2011 3:38pm
Why would they? Surely they wish to sell eggs to us?
We run a trade deficit with the rest of the EU if they wish to continue to sell to us then they need to conform to our regulations. If eggs become a problem I’m sure we can come up with some interesting regulations for their egg producers.
The Oncoming Storm
December 7th, 2011 3:56pm Report this commentYou're wasting your time with this lot Trev, most of them probably think Van Rompuy is the Anti-Christ!
They've completely forgotten the lesson of 2001 when the Tories ran on a staunchly Eurosceptic manifesto and got their arses handed to them on a plate!
THE VOTERS DON'T CARE ABOUT EUROPE!!!
DavidDP
December 7th, 2011 3:59pm Report this commentI'd hazard a guess that some people are concerned about the relationship with France, Germany et al going ahead if, when they are on their knees looking for help up, the response of the UK is to kick them in the balls and push them over.
It has its short term attractions, but long term is rather damaging to UK interests.
Fred Forsythe-notthe
December 7th, 2011 4:07pm Report this commentI am afraid that Cameron is an EU Trojan Horse and no friend of Britain. His role is to give hope but not substance. His is a delaying task to keep us below the level of rebellion until it is too late.
He desperately needs to be removed and I think that Tory Mps are at last beginning to realise it.
michael
December 7th, 2011 4:12pm Report this commentif Mr Paterson's constituents wanted to export into a new 'Uber Alles' I'm sure that they would choose regulatory compliance. However free to compete head on on the home and wider fronts they are much less likely to find business stolen by those who merely preach regulatory compliance within their own rigged marketplace.
Robert Eve
December 7th, 2011 4:13pm Report this commentSurely if the 17 become one country they will only get one vote. The 10 members outside the eurozone will then have a majority.
Simples!!
strapworld
December 7th, 2011 4:32pm Report this commentPlease do not overlook the official position of Mr Patterson. Then consider that the majority party of that province wants a referendum, indeed asked that very question at PMQ's. So Cameron would give him leave to take on such an attitude to placate the Ulster Unionist MP's.
It is time to consider that we have a gang of fork tongued shysters in this cabinet!
There is no way that we will get a referendum unless and until the Conservative Party wake up and kick Cameron into the long grass.
Boudicca
December 7th, 2011 4:32pm Report this comment"Such language is all the more striking from Paterson because this Cambridge history graduate is the very opposite of the Little Englander"
-------------
WHEN will you so-called journalists get it into your thick skulls that just because you don't want your country governed by the EU it doesn't make you a xenophobe.
Most EU-refusniks are WHOLE WORLDERS. We know enough history and are experienced enough to know that the UK's future prosperity doesn't lie within the bankrupt, protectionist EU - it lies in the whole world, particularly the Anglosphere and the emerging economies.
Churchill, when he proposed a European Union, did not want the UK in it. He said
"We have our own dream and our own task.
We are with Europe, but not of it.
We are linked but not combined.
We are interested and associated but not absorbed."
He also said that if it came to a choice between Europe and the open seas (ie the whole world) the British people would always choose the open seas.
Churchill said what EU-refusniks believe - we do not belong in the EU.
DavidDP
December 7th, 2011 4:47pm Report this comment"Surely if the 17 become one country they will only get one vote. The 10 members outside the eurozone will then have a majority.
Simples!!"
Unfortunately, under the priniples of the extension of QMV agreed by the traitor Thatcher, the vote would still be weighted to reflect the size of the bloc.
David Lindsay
December 7th, 2011 4:47pm Report this commentA starving freelance has exactly 600 words on how the fiscal union of the Eurozone is not our concern, and with or without it Labour could use the parliamentary process to take back British sovereignty from the EU without needing either a referendum or the never-ending negotiations necessary for withdrawal – davidaslindsay@hotmail.com
Mycroft
December 7th, 2011 5:28pm Report this comment"the creation of a new bloc which would be effectively a new country from which we were excluded"
What sort of logic is that? We have never been excluded (in the passive), we have excluded ourselves by not joining the Euro. Rightly in my view, but that is a simple matter of cause and effect, if the Eurozone countries want to create a superstate, there's not a damn thing we can do about it. Beyond having a referendum perhaps to enable the British people to tell the Eurozone countries that they don't care for their Eurostate! And what precisely would that achieve?
TGF UKIP
December 7th, 2011 6:28pm Report this commentThe great thing about present days is that more and more Tories are beginning, at long last, to face up to the reality that is One Nation, One Continent Cameron.
Rhoda Klapp
December 7th, 2011 6:30pm Report this commentThere's gonna be no treaty. The plans amount to a political impossibility, while not delivering a solution to the economic problems. There is no economic solution which leaves the euro intact, which the euro elite finds unacceptable. In fact nobody has a working plan. If they had one, anything which leaves the UK outside with a bunch of minnows who are nearly all officially signed up to join the euro in the future will incontrovertibly put us in a very changed position. We would need to decide whether that position was tenable. We are never going to be onboard with the project of ever-closer union and an eventual united Europe.
Rhoda Klapp
December 7th, 2011 6:32pm Report this commentWe are only in it to thwart that outcome in favour of a broader shallower union. If the latter becomes impossible, we don't need to be in it any more. Time to present that as a policy aim. Let the opposition tie themselves to the ever-closer union if they dare. Time to outline what leaving would bring, or maybe what deal we can get as a semi-detached member. "At the heart of Europe" is no longer on the table, if it ever was.
Rhoda Klapp
December 7th, 2011 6:33pm Report this commentMy last two would not post in one bit. I found that using single quotes, apostrophes, was the problem. With double quotes it worked.
Andrew Fletcher
December 7th, 2011 6:48pm Report this commentTory right wing groups – No Turning Back Group, 92 Group and Cornerstone – meeting now in Edward Leigh's office to put pressure on PM on EU
Tory Wars 2 - this time the Wets Lose !!
David Parker
December 7th, 2011 6:53pm Report this commentI have always held Owen Paterson in high regard, indeed I would not rule him out as a potential future leader of the Conservative party. But, in calling for, or even supporting an EU referendum per se, one needs to be very careful about what one wishes for.
A referendum to approve or disapprove of the outcome of any renegotiations with the EU, whilst we still remain a member of that organisation would do more harm than good, for the simple fact that we cannot trust any of the political elite ( including senior civil servants) most of whom are intrinsically europhile, even to tell the truth, let alone to put the pros and cons clearly and fairly to the voting public.
I was sorry to hear Owen Paterson even mentioning the conword of "repatriation" of powers, when the only honest description for this is the "resumption" of all our previous independent sovereign powers, followed by completely new trade and mutual support agreements, enforceable by way of intergovernmental accords.
It may well be that such new intergovernmental agreements will be between the UK and one or more future European block or trading groups, such as those between EFTA countries and the current EU, but the difference between that and our current membership of the EU would be that individual elements of those agreements could be renegotiated according to changing circumstances.
Cogito Ergosum
December 7th, 2011 7:03pm Report this commentFor an amusing American view of Europe, see this recent article in The Onion.
www.theonion.com/articles/secretary-of-agriculture-attends-diplomatic-meetin,26822/
Dimoto
December 7th, 2011 7:03pm Report this commentThe insistence on a Tobin tax and "harmonisation" of corporate income tax, are both French obsessions - competition is "disloyal" in the mind of the French elite.
Maybe that's why the Germans are now so pessimistic about completing a deal.
Merkel and Cameron seemed to have reached an understanding, before Sarko again put his little boot in.
Dennis Churchill
December 7th, 2011 8:07pm Report this commentRhoda Klapp
December 7th, 2011 6:32pm
Yes, but you must also ask yourself what the USA’s interests are as we are in many ways their proxy in the EU.
Agents of Influence did (and do) not only work for our ‘opponents’ but also what are normally considered our allies.
TGF UKIP
December 7th, 2011 8:08pm Report this commentCouldn't agree more with David Parker. Any referendum ceded by CleggCameron in the near future will inevitably be designed to obscure and obviate the basic issue and to take EU membership off the UK table for another 36 years.
With these two in Downing Street this is a very dangerous time for the British nation state.
ex-Tory Voter
December 7th, 2011 8:15pm Report this commentI find it very strange that Owen Paterson (who happens to be my MP) thinks that a referendum on the EU is inevitable yet he voted against allowing us to have one when it was debated in Parliament. Hypocrisy or what? That little bit of treachery won't be forgotten, I can assure you.
Noa
December 7th, 2011 8:43pm Report this commentEssential reading for an informed and impartial judgement on the EU debate:-
*ttp://www.taxpayersalliance.com/termsofendearment.pdf
Verity
December 7th, 2011 9:50pm Report this commentBoudicca for PM! If Nigel gets the PM slot, Boudicca for Foreign Minister!
Barbara
December 7th, 2011 9:53pm Report this commentSarlozy and Merkel are cosy, yet, the former goes to the polls shortly, what if he's thrown out which it looks likely? France won't become a satilite state of Germany after their history, just as we won't be dictated to either. Memories are robust things. Cameron knows 89% of the country want a referendum, it's doing him and his prestige more damage by denying us one than he knows. The Conservatives fear losing the next election, but by Milibands performamce and front bench he should have no fears. Clegg is almost laughed off the tv screens each time he appears, and his party is so low in the polls he'll have to do a lot to regain popularity. As for Cameron's choices over in the EU, well nows the time to show some mettle, if he fails, he won't be forgiven by the people or his own party. Waffle won't do, something on the table, or walking away will do, and that's the best option, walking away, and bringing the 15 billion in EU payments with him. That should make them surrender if nothing else does. That's what I'd so, tell em straight, take it or we'll leave it. Nothing like old Black Country straight talking and saying like it is.
The Memsahib
December 7th, 2011 10:07pm Report this commentTGF UKIP - D'acuerdo.
Dimoto, wait until Marine Le Pen strides into the fray as President!
Kevin
December 7th, 2011 10:28pm Report this comment"Such language is all the more striking from Paterson because this Cambridge history graduate is the very opposite of the Little Englander. He is fluent in French and German and his idea of fun is spending the summer holidays racing across Mongolia on horseback with his wife."
This is not serious journalism.
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