A defining moment

AH

I think it is defining as you say but I wonder if the Union that will be most impacted is our own: The United Kingdom. As the Tory euroscpetics hold greater sway in Westminster so to will the nationalists in Scotland. The SNP want much closer ties with Europe. Cameron's hand bag waving has made an independent Scotland more likely.

Heartless P.

Steady, ... STEADY with the wording. The H2B is no more BOLD than a man with a gun to his head, - though I rather think it was the guns behind him from the increasingly bold dissenters that did the trick.

PS. And spare a thought for all the BBC wallahs and the EUSSR jobsworths who sense a nice little earner gradually fading away.

PPS Merv resisted printing more funny money? Wow!

normanc

Can someone explain how we can achieve 'looser union' without opting out of any treaties?

I fully understand that we've, for the moment, put the brakes on 'closer union' but I can't get my head around the first part without a referendum, which has already been ruled out.

Going by that Cameron loyalist quote the plan seems to be that we let the new 23 power bloc instigate enough harmful, to us, policies that eventually we'll have no choice but to call a referendum?

That's so completely wrong headed on so many levels it hardly merits comment.

If that is the plan, why not just split the coalition now and have a referendum rather than wait til untold damage is done to our economy?

Maybe they want to up the support for a referendum from the 85% it currently stands at!

Manic Depressive

Without being one to rush to judge and being a party pooper I would recommend you hold your fire before stating unequivocally that and I quote ' Cameron's bold decision to veto will come to define him as a leader '. Early days sir, final outcomes matter not initial position taking! Call me cynical, but quite frankly I have every reason to be!

The Oncoming Storm

Hammer, nail and head James. This deal doesn't address the findental problems in the Euro, watch the markets pull it apart in the coming days resulting in another emergency summit in the New Year.

wmcht

The eurozone exchange rates were fixed 12 years ago. Since then thr relative costs have diverged by approximately 30% in some instances. To try and maintain the euro will inevitably lead to an internal recession in Italy, Spain etc and the effects will be similar to those in the 30's of remaining attached to the gold standard unless the rich countries make massive transfers year on year. I think this is unlikely and therefore the only solution, however painful, is to organise the orderly break up of the euro.

TGF UKIP

Far better off now outa rather than just outer.

Vulture

You are confused, James. (I know - it must have been a long night).

In one paragraph you admit that Dave had no choice but to veto this naked Merkozy power grab.

In the next you call his veto 'bold'. How can it be bold if he had no choice?

In truth, he was halfway up the gangplank when he noticed the name of the ship he was boarding on a lifebelt. It was 'TITANIC'. He then executed a swift u-turn.

What interests me is the attitude of those Coffee Housers like Maggie and Telemachus who up till yesty were defending Dave to the hilt when he looked as though he would play the Quisling/Vichy part. Yet today they are spitting tacks at him.

Funny that. They clearly prefer foreign Fascist rule.

Tiberius

I quite agree with your first paragraph, James. Merkel and Sarkozy can keep on pounding their chosen path to keep the eurozone together, but they will not beat the markets in the end. Britain has to be prepared to deal with events outside Merkozy's control.

As for Cameron's reflexive critics, many of them aren't singing any more. A few (on Fraser's blog below) are trying to sing the old song with a descant, no doubt brought on in anticipation of Christmas.

However, the fact remains Cameron still has a lot to do to get himself and the country through this crisis.

Nickle

Markozy need someone else to blame for political reasons.

Rhoda Klapp

Well, disregarding any sycophantic tendency inherent in a planted story, it is time to realise as fact something which has been coming on for some time. The UK being out of the euro was always seen on the continent as a pemporary glitch. Only we and Denmark had tn opt-out and the other non-euro countries were obliged to join. Europhiles knew for a stone cold fact that the currency was destined for success, would replace the dollar, would lead on to broad sunlit uplands, and that the UK would be bound, someday, to see sense and join. They nearly got their way with the traitor Blair, thwarted by Brown for reasons which juuuuust might have been more personal than patriotic. There was no need to set aside provisions for a non-euro group, the euro would encompass the whole EU soon enough. Now that position is untenable. There has to be provision for non-euro members. Now the EZ stance is to consider that need unimportant. The EZ is the EU, the outside group does not matter. For the UK, it is the most important thing. We will never join. It can't be sold to the electorate, even if some of the usual suspects think it might be slipped back onto the agenda someday. So we need a formalisation of our status. We need a relationship with the EU institutions, the single market, the regulations, which will deliver some degree of permanence. That is what we ought to be debating. We cannot be at the heart of europe outside of the euro group. We need a new deal. This is an opportunity, provided one agrees with the train of thought I've presented. If you disagree, tell me where I'm wrong. The terms of the euro debate in the UK have changed, but our media (the BBC! Blimey!) have yet to catch up, they frame it in the same old tribal way as they did in the 60s. The politicians too, aligned according to the old world order, going through the motions like a repertory company panto in a grim seaside resort on a wet january evening. Obsolete, irrelevant. Time for a new start.

Rhoda Klapp

Oh, if he had no choice, how was it a bold decision? Just asking. Except he did not ACTUALLY veto anything.

ROJ

I am delighted that Cameron used the veto but it is a mistake to imagine that he was being bold in the slightest degree. We cannot tell what he was thinking, but we can guess that he knew that if he had not used that veto he would have been politically dead. Getting a treaty through the commons would have been a minor issue, compared to hanging on to the leadership of his party.

PayDirt

If people are really worried about the UK playing Canada to America’s United States as in the upcoming mighty US-of-Europe, perhaps we should foster closer relations with the Scandanavian countries, not forgetting the counterweight to Franco-German hegemony that Russia might afford.

Maggie

What Cameron is saying is "We're not all in it together". In a time of crisis a Conservative Britain will duck out and leave its allies to face the music alone. The French version of Dunkirk is that the cowardly British scarpered at the first sign of trouble. Well the cowardly British have just done it again.

TGF Euros

Back to the major years - incoherent policy on Europe that benefits or satisfies no-one. Best have an in/out referendum on being part of the EU and sort this issue which has been a cancer on UK politics for a generation once and for all.

Jim Gard

Are we entering a new Napoleonic "Continental System" era! Will the proles accept budget cuts imposed by the Germany's or will there be riots and civil was! I really hope not.

Rocknroll

Dave you are the man!! can you imagine what a snivelling coward like Gordon Brown would have done in these circumstances? Yes that's right, he would have capitulated and then lied to the British people and Parliament as to his reasons. Also, a message to Nick Robinson of the Biased Broadcasting Company who said this would never happen: **** you!

Julian F

Let's not obfuscate on this matter. The EU proposals would have placed an unbearable strain on the single biggest sector of the British economy. Cameron could have quailed before the bullies and placated the BBC but British citizens would have been the ultimate losers. He took a brave stance on a matter of vital national interest and he is to be congratulated fulsomely for it. He has shown true leadership mettle at the point when it matters. Well done.

Pot Head

A weakned city would surley have helped Camerons expressed desire to "rebalance" our economy away from an over reliance on financial services.

MagicAldo

Correct. We all know how this is going to end. Why can't we just get on with it? The UK out of the EU - the Eurozone turned into the USE.

Dennis Churchill

Yes he can run with this image and win.
The polls at the weekend will decide. If his rating starts to improve in the next few weeks then we will have an election sooner than anyone would have thought a year ago.
The EU will be the defining issue and one that is deadly for Labour (the Lib Dems will be destroyed as a parliamentary force) it is one of the few that would persuade people to change lifelong voting patterns.
Even the BBC needs to take care; too much pro-EU propaganda, which often comes over as anti-British, or Anglophobic, could further undermine support for the poll tax/licence fee.
A sensible Conservative government ,with a comfortable majority ,should deal with it anyway as it is cancerous to our national interest in a number of ways.

kinglear

.. and will endear him to the majority of the Tory party and swathes of the country as well

Mycroft

This confirms that Cameron has been playing this well; in particular by not making any excessive demands. If they were not even willing to discuss the modest guarantees that he asked for, how would there have been any possibility of getting anywhere on demands for repatriation of powers? Now we have to wait and see whether any agreements that they can scape together will save the Euro, and take it from there. If they do save the Euro, the UK will be in a more awkward situation than if they do not. Opponents of European federalism have to hope for the failure of the Euro, however unpleasant the short-term consequences may be for us.

David B

The question it how many other countries will join us. There are already 3 others who did not sign, how many others will back out when they get home.

Salopian

It IS the defining moment for Cameron. It is also a defining moment for the LibDems. This morning one of the most "coalitionsceptic" MPs (Ming) came out in full support of the move. No if or buts - it was the RIGHT thing to do.
It seems most likely that Merkel and Sarkpzy miscalculated - they just didn't believe that Cameron would/ could do it. They thought that, at the last moment Clegg would call Cameron and say "don't do it, we shan't back this".
So today Merkel and Sarkozy face a total mess. They have to find a way of managing a completely new "concordat" They have to create to a mechanism for control of the financial affairs of all Euro members, if necessary to override the wishes of democratically elected governments.
And they have to persuade the people of those countries it's worth it because this will create the growth needed for recovery.

Does anyone in Europe really believe that. Do the Germans believe it, do the Swedes really want to join this club? And what about the Poles and the other Hungarians and Chechs.

20 years ago they broke free of the all pervading Comecon: it stultified their development, the social structures, their relations with the rest of the world.

"How" they might reasonably ask " will these proposed controls differ from those exercised by Comecon"

"Will they bring greater prosperity, growth" how ?

Cameron may be alone now - but 6 months down the line it will be different as non members of the Euro realise what they are about to lose and how little they will gain.

And don;t forget that Sarko will probably be gone and Merkel will be facing a German populace which realises that the only outcome of the project will be an impoverished Germany

toco

If we told Germany to stop manufacturing Mercedes Benz cars or the French to stop making croissants one can just imagine the reaction.They are jealous of our leading position in financial markets and have behaved like spoilt brats.The Euro cannot survive with so many very different cultures between the member countries and indeed within the self same countries themselves.

Havena Clew

This, by some great distance, is the best thing this incumbent PM has done so far. Let's hope this moment does define him and the future of this country.

Jannie Geldenhuys

The UK's position in the EU is now untenable. It will be 23 (or maybe even 26) v 1 in all EU negotiation from here on in.

We either have to get out entirely (which seems to me almost impossible and would quite probably be ruinous to the UK), get everyone to agree we should be in the EEA and reverse out of the full EU or fold in to the EU (euro and all) lock stock and barrel.

Our predicamne is grim. But it is the result of over 50 years of failed European policy. We are truly paying for the error of not being in the ECSC from the very start, whereby we could have influenced it in a very different direction.

But the French have little to crow about. It is no exaggeration to say that Sarkozy is now as to Merkel as Petain was to Hitler - i.e. a suboprdinate puppet.

JohnOfEnfield

The mind boggles at what Gordon B-ruin would have done in this situation.

Julian F

Rhoda Klapp: "Oh, if he had no choice, how was it a bold decision? Just asking. Except he did not ACTUALLY veto anything."

What are you on about? He vetoed a new treaty which would have incorporated fiscal union and Euro-regulation of the City. Even Sarkozy admits that much. And "had no choice" is a figure of speech indicating that to sign up would have been damaging to the UK. He did have a choice in that he could have signed away control over our single most important econopmic sector. But he didn't. He vetoed the plans.

rex

This is not playing well on the Continent

Der Spiegel is running a story titled Auf Wiedersehen, England—google translates fairly well. Title says it all anyway

And it has poll which finds the 61 percent of a 2,500 vote sample believe Britain should leave the EU

Details below.
Sollten die Briten die EU verlassen?
Großbritannien schert bei der Lösung der Schuldenkrise aus der europäischen Gemeinschaft aus. Sollten die Briten die Europäische Union ganz verlassen?

Ja, die Dauerblockierer verhindern die europäische Integration 1564 61,65%
Ja, die ganze europäische Idee hat keine Zukunft 286 11,27%
Nein, die Europäische Union braucht das starke Mitglied 282 11,12%
Nein, das wäre der Anfang vom Ende der europäischen Gemeinschaft 286 11,27%
Das ist mir egal 119 4,69%
Gesamtbeteiligung 2537

Andrew Fletcher

This Halfway House cannot stand

We have to campaign to get right out now- otherwise we are f*****d

My concern is that Dave Cam thinks this neither in nor out position is acceptable in itself

mongoose

Within all the squawking hubbub of European commentators concerning perfidious Albion there a little chirrup from Finland about the need to preserve unanimity voting within the Eurozone+. They won't be steamrollered, and they have sisu.

Rhoda Klapp

Julian F, he did not veto in the sense that it did not come to that sort of vote. A figurative veto possibly, not an actual one.

As for 'had no choice' I was merely pointing out a logical inconsistency in James' piece. One minute he has no choice, the next it is a bold move. That's what you get when you paraphrase a briefing and try to relate it to reality, I suppose.

alexsandr

if we do leave, then they will lose our contributions. That could start the whole house of cards collapsing as the EC commission runs out of money.

so the Eurozone countries will have to make a bigger contribution to the EC as well as create a new EURO secretariate to manage the new controls. Cant see that being popular, can you?

General Zod

Salopian, Sarko is indeed likely to be gone, but will be replaced by the colourless eurofederalist, Francois Hollande. If Merkel goes it will be in favour of whichever pygmy ends up as the SPD's Kanzlerkandidat.

It's difficult to see any improvement coming out of the removal of Merkozy.

ButcombeMan

Cameron is only a leader because he was forced out of his dugout with a gun at his back.

simon

the UK has a glittering future out of the Eurozone; EFTA, NAFTA, Commonwealth, NATO, Security Council. She will become more important and attractive not only in Europe but the world.

Salopian

Rhoda. Well, try this. Thinking of the interests of the Economy "he had no choice" but to say NO. But to say NO was a "Bold Move" when thinking of domestic politics.

As for your earlier post. Your "train of thought" is on the right tracks it just needs a strong enough engine to pull it. The coalition could and might yet deliver it (see my earlier post (11.50am).

But I don't buy the idea of breaking the coalition to bring about an election leading to a Tory government which would leads to sunny uplands.

The election would be about the Economy not Europe. Hands up those who are confident that the Tories would get an outright majority - and what if they didn't? Remember it'd be fought on the old boundaries with a built in Labour majority.

This is the real world guys. There's no hurry! 6 months down the line and Europe will look very very different; there's a good chance that we'll get even more than we ask for

John Edwards

This demonstrates just how skewed British politics is towards protecting the perceived interests of the financial elite and the City. The first commenter made a very good point about how this will be seen in Scotland. The same could be said for other parts of the UK particularly those most hit by recession.

Salopian

General Zod - You're probably right. But remember the chronology. Merkel could be without Sarko within 6 months. The whole "Conconcordat" only has traction because of the Merkel Sarlko Axis.

If you take Sarko out and replace him with a nonentity apparatchik you end up with Angela Merkel in complete control- at precisely the time that the whole shebang is being negotiated.

Who is going to moderate her demands? who s going to ensure that German ἡγεμονία does not run out of control?

Julian F

Rhoda Klapp: Fair enough, I see your points. It perhaps wasn't a technical veto but it was an expression of intent to use that option which, de facto, is the same thing. To be fair to the man, it must have been pretty tough in there, with shrill Euro-bullies banging on about how a veto would destroy the Euro. What I can't understand is why the non-Euro countries should be part of a treaty to support those that were foolish enough to enter the currency union in the first place. And the Merkozy idea of creating effectively a three-tier Europe (Euro-bloc, Euro-bloc plus and the sensible ones) is confusing and unnecessary. Cameron was right to keep his cool and not be steamrollered into an accord that would have been overkill and politically rather than economically motivated. For the first time in a long time, I feel proud of one of our politicians.

Axstane

Maggie @11.09. The French version of history glorifies Napoleon as an idealist who sought to bring peace to Europe. He was a power-mad glory hunter.

Vulture and Perry - give it a break please. Your lives must be very dull when your sole preoccupation is to denigrate Cameron daily.

All of those who glefully forecast a complete surrender to the Franco-German aims of a Pan-European Empire might now profitably take a view of the real world. If you seek culprits then look at the creators of the Euro and reflect that Gordon Brown did one correct thing in 13 years.

Then think what would have happened if Ed Miliband was our PM yesterday.

Especially the Kippers here - most of you actually - remember the old saw "My enemy's enemy is my friend" and decide who is the enemy.

Good day to you all.

Rhoda Klapp

Saliopian:. Your "train of thought" is on the right tracks it just needs a strong enough engine to pull it.

Touche.

Maggie

simon 12.43pm The organisations you suggest the UK concentrates on all now know that when the going gets tough the UK runs away with its tail between its legs. They also know that the UK behaves like a spoilt teenager if it doesn't get its own way on everything.

Frank P

Frank P

Interesting reading on this thread, which does cover a wide variety of opinion; it's obviously all in the eye of the beholder. With all this glittering prose, wit and polemical sparkle I think I'll just put on my shades and lie down and think about it, though I'm still asking the question, which hasn't yet been answered, where are Soros and other such manipulators in all this? Cui bono? Sure as hell the pols are not making the decisions, despite this mixture of praise, condemnation and fence-sitting bloviation. Where's the f*****g money?? It travels at the speed of light, to and fro, fro and to. Once they get this Hadron Collider working it will travel even faster than that - and rest assured the ilk of Soros have already booked a ride on that nifty particle with their pots of gold.

Pity Charles Dodgson isn't still around, he could write a sequel to Jabberwocky. And just think what Eric Blair could have made of all of this? Or perhaps he did it already! He just miscalculated the year - a little premature.

Frank P

For those that haven't, it's worth reading Merkel's pedigree, I know Wiki is perhaps not the most reliable source, but unless someone can give me a better round-up, it will do for me, for now. Some interesting roots there. Are you thinking what I'm thinking? Hmmmnn.

starfish

@ rex

"This is not playing well on the Continent

Der Spiegel is running a story titled Auf Wiedersehen, England—google translates fairly well. Title says it all anyway

And it has poll which finds the 61 percent of a 2,500 vote sample believe Britain should leave the EU"

probably about the same % as in the UK!!!

Just as a matter of interest did the poll point out that rather unusually in the EU the UK is a net contributor, and whether its view might therefore influence their's given that the Germans will have to bankroll the latest political solution?

They do not seem to realise that it is their inheritance Merkozy is about to spend in the casino economies of southern Europe

Nicholas Porter

@Salopian. You may be partially right that any snap election would have the economy as its major decisive factor. One musn't ignore Europe tough, because if a large proportion of that 7% now allegedly supporting UKIP now suddenly reverted to a 'genuinely' euro-sceptic party, that would be more than enough to compensate. DC may have had various pieces of hardware pointed at his kidneys, but the resulting outcome may prove to be a brilliant, if unintended coup politique.

Cynic

"Britain is now on a path to ever looser union with Europe." Can't come soon enough or be loose enough, to be honest! The Common Market was a good idea. The USE will be a disaster and we should have no part of it.

Marcher Baron

@rex - I'd have voted to kick us out, too. Let them go to hell in a handcart on their own!

@Maggie - that's the French version of Dunkirk. The truth is, they'd already decided to surrender when Churchill tried to stiffen their sinews. According to the French, the British were absent from le Jour J (D Day). Funny how my friends who still bear the scars (mental and physical) of the campaign and the bodies buried in French cemeteries belie that version. I have to say, the British soldiers' graves are honoured on 11th November like everybody else's, so not everybody buys into the "official" version.

David Ossitt

Some very well thought out posts but unless I have missed it no one has mentioned what I believe will be the eventual outcome for the Euro-zone.

It might eventually collapse in its entirety, or much more probable in my opinion a number of countries will be forcibly ejected starting with Grease and a number who still want to join (mad) will be told that their applications to join are refused.

We live in exciting times.

David Ossitt

testing.

jontini

It might be worth listening again to Churchill, who in 1946 saw a "United States of Europe" as necessary. Listen here: http://www.cvce.eu/viewer/-/content/5da812de-3a20-4e2a-9cc1-7e0f90c8f97b/en;jsessionid=D8F331568BDAAD2A2060C2E7B12B7972
Of course, perhaps he didn't mean Britain to be part of it, in which case his vision may yet be realised.