The government's Sarkozy problem (and other euro dilemmas)

Julian F

"The economic costs would be considerable — possibly 10 percent of Britain’s GDP "

Where does that figure come from, please Daniel?

toco

Sarko should have looked at his history books and seen the last little French corporal who had the temerity to upset the British came rather a cropper at Waterloo and ended his days is disgrace well outside the EU.Sarko is yesterday's man and his stature will diminish even further as this story unfolds.

Rhoda Klapp

Take a step back, Daniel. Consider that the people in this country might not want what Sir Humphrey wants. Maybe we don't give toss for imaginary influence or the power to shape events in the eurozone.
Maybe we don't want to pool the stupidity of our pols and diplomats with Europe, because we can be just as stupid on our own, with a chance we may once in a while get something in our own interest.

And as for the centre of european decision-making, you are having a laugh, aren't you?

percy

I support david cameron at least he has the botttle to stand up for BRITAIN.Clegg is soon backtracking on what he said the other day. Why O Why cannot these polaticians back each other, if for occassionally only.They seem to frightened to give the public a referendum, perhaps they know what the outcome would be. Two world wars were fought for freedom so come on MPs back the prime minister.

Neil McEvoy

Why is "marginalisation" so bad? The eurozone is going down, come what may. I'd rather be on the margins of that or any other disaster than in the middle it. There's certainly no point in us acceding to Merkozy's demands to throw good money after bad while chasing businesses to Singapore.

Mudplugger

Remind us, Daniel, what colour is the sky on the planet where you live ?

Dr Alf Oldman

I totally endorse this analysis. Sarkozy has been grand-standing in a big way, trying to leverage his re-election & deflect financial markets from focussing on France. Time will tell whether the fiscal compact is successful but Prime Minister Cameron was right to "No"

Dennis Churchill

The surprise that Cameron did not behave like a governor of a Franco-German Provence reminds me of the story told about Wellington when he was Prime Minister. After his first cabinet meeting he expressed surprise saying:”I gave them their orders and they tried to discuss them!”
Continental Europe has reverted to its political default position after shedding the culture imposed by the Anglo-Americans after World War 2.
They will do something to “punish” Britain which will give the Conservatives an excuse to call an election with a referendum pledge.
Not only do we need an official cost benefit analyses of our membership but the Franco-Germans should crack the numbers.Net contributors and run a £34 billion trade deficit.

Wire Donkey

Daniel Korski's commentary has many contradictions and shows that he understands the EU just as little as David Cameron does and Korski shouldn't write about it just as DC shouldn't represent us at EU summits.

Heartless (Romantic) Curmudgeon

Excellent, - let Britain muddy the waters, and whilst doing so, withdraw.

If possible Britain should also set up smoke pots (bit before your time Danny) and generally zoom about with smoke, flares, drones and anything to baffle the foe.

This is a time for setting many records straight Danny, yours among them.

TomTom

Can we please cancel the St Malo Agreement ? We should shed a tear for the Bundesbank also, forced to treble its contribution to the IMF to circumvent the German Bundestag.

Sarkozy is now free of constitutional restraint, maybe Marine Le Pen can bring order into this chaos ?

Dobbin

When the euro collapses the City of London wil get the blame; that is inevitable and there is no point in worrying about it. The danger is that we will now make all sorts of concessions, trying to make up for past intransigence and show what good Europeans we are.

MelFie

Cameron's veto wasn't because of "British interests", he vetoed just out of spite! You could tell by the way he's been smirking while vetoing!
I hope the British spongers will now take the next step and leave the EU!
We don't need you lot, go sponge elsewhere!

Widmerpool

@ Daniel Interesting stuff, good in parts!

Dave and his Merry Men[not only just the real Boneheaded Backbenchers] need to work out a strategy for dealing with Sarko in particular and the others in general.

Maybe Dave should consult the old Chinese General's "Art of Strategy" book in particular the bit about knowing your opponent's weaknesses.

IMHO in the case of Sarko they are:
1. France loosing triple A rating status
2. He might get kicked out in May? next year when the French have come to terms what it really means to have things run from Brussels and Germany.
3. As David Smith points out in the ST France is now 10% less competitive than Germany which means Sarko has to adopt some radical labour and working practices reforms. This will go down like a cup of cold sick with some if not most French Workers
3. How will corporate governance work in Brussels with the gang of 26, will they be able to use existing Euro institutions. Now Dave has wielded his veto they can be no doubt he can use it again.
4. Most importantly the Euro may still collapse.

If I were Sarko I would be very worried and I hope "Flashman" plays to Sarko's weaknesses in the next few months

Axstane

Sarkozy is manoeuvring to try to save his own position.

The other Eurozone countries are distressed that they will not be able to get new billions from us when it is their turn to be propped up.

There is a limit to what Germany and the Netherlands can put into the pot and even Denmark, although governed now by Mrs. Kinnock Jnr, is outside the Eurozone.

Downtown

It is time Britain realised that the EU does not need to define our success or failure - unless we let it. There is a big world out there and it is time we started getting more involved in it, instead of the current surfeit of internal European-style navel-gazing. All this talk of lost influence "around the table", and the bizarre logic seems to be that to keep this supposed influence we had to agree to everything the other big two in the EU wanted. What sort of influence is that? Traditional relationships vis-a-vis Britain, Germany and France seem to be reasserting themselves more strongly.

We should remind ourselves we have things that other EU nations do not - such as still-substantial influence throughout the world as a consequence of having been an imperial power. We need to get up on our hind legs and stop being so cringeful.

The French and the Germans single-mindedly pursue their own national interest (often at Britain's expense), why don't we? What is there to apologise for in this case?

Bravo to David Cameron, it is about time.

Nicholas

Dwarf on left with hooked nose (in French accent): "That's the way to do it! That's the way to do it."

Tall Old Etonian: "Bog off you short-arsed frog".

Widmerpool

Dennis Churchill
Agreed the numbers should crunched ASAP to show the net cost to UK plc of being in or out!
In this age of super computers which can crunch vast quantities of data and analyse multiple "what ifs" it must be possible. The Board of a real PLC would be negligent if they did'nt do, so get on with it Dave get George and Danny crunching the numbers and show us the results!

strapworld

Surely, Dennis Churchill, all the conservatives have to do is call an election with the stated promise to leave the EU as soon as possible, to restart our long trading partnership with the Commonwealth and the rest of the world. Put up the signs that BRITAIN IS OPEN FOR BUSINESS. I think that would see off the Labour and Liberal Democrats and end the need for the Ukip, English Democrats etc.

Viv Evans

Diplomats, politicians and political journalists may well have analysed this to death by now.
Sadly, you forgot to mention the analysts who really matter, those in global businesses and stock Market analysts.

They don't give a toss about veto or Merkozy, they look at what this summit means in regard to solving the Euro crisis.
And they will find that it means sweet Fanny Adams.

Once the markets open tomorrow, the wailings of the LibDems, Labour and the BBC in general will be seen for what they are: hot air by financially uneducated idiots.

Woody

No-one ever seems to mention we are part of a commonwealth and the Queen is Head of State of over 50 countries.

I believe are trade with India has increased considerably since David Cameron's visit earlier this year. This is the way to go surely.

I see Vince Cable has spoilt my Christmas and is not resigning - no surprise there. I do believe this man is a real drag anchor on business in this country and has allegedly been implementing many EU directives that are deliberately hindering businesses in this country.

Perhaps someone knows more about this than I do?

Nicholas Hallam

I am hoping that the Germans have the courage of their own convictions and impose the Financial Transactions Tax on their new empire. It will be fun to watch their financial markets migrate to London.

Dimoto

Ironic to hear the whining, emanating from Ireland this morning: "Britain, isolated in Europe is not in the Irish interest" etc etc

The country which, eyes-wide-open voted for a treaty with the express aim of "harmonising away" Ireland's cherished low corporate income tax rates, is apparently now worried that the UK won't be around to fight their corner (and hold their hand).

Likewise Sweden, with first-hand experience of the stupidity and destructiveness of a unilateral Tobin tax, nevertheless, kept very quiet - frightened to provoke "the wrath of Sarkozy".

It is almost understandable that Merkel and Sarkozy treat the smaller countries with such contempt, they probably feel that these complacent and timorous "provinces" don't deserve to be treated as independent entities.
Almost.

disenfranchised

10% of britain's GDP, my arse!
lad, you take a lot of stick from speccys, and frankly, it's all fully deserved.
you are a complete, 21 carat, unadulterated EU wallah......

t l mann

In my view, if it comes to a choice between being an isolated minor world player up against a European superstate led by France/Germany, the UK will (behind the scenes) make sure the euro fails and we get back to dealing and trading with nation states.

It's war by another name

Friends from Down Under

We applaud Cameron's stand against those aggressive foreign dictators. Europe is the past, Asia is the future.The UK should seek new and friendly business partners. Whether you like it or not, your financial sector had to be protected. It should never fall to the revenue benefit of Franco-German masters.It would be masochistic madness to allow Europe to get their hands on London - the world's biggest financial centre that delivers huge exponential employment and treasury revenue. Well done Cameron, and long live the UK --- break the dowdy EU shackles and go forward in dignity and pride.

M Davies

Maybe Mr John Redwood MP can enlighten Daniel:

Spare us the fibs about the EU and the Euro

1. If the UK makes a stand or declines to support the Merkel plan, we could lose the 10% of our National Income based on exports to the EU.

Response: Whatever happens at summits, Germany will still want to sell us cars and France will still want to sell us wine. The UK will still be selling products and services in the EU, under existing EU rules and WTO controls. That does not change, whatever we do or say on the architecture of the EU and Euro.

Cynic

"If The French leader pushes to exclude Britain further, he can trigger the debate in Britain." Allez-y, Sarko, mon brave!

Publius

@Widmerpool
"Agreed the numbers should crunched ASAP to show the net cost to UK plc of being in or out!"

It would be an empty exercise in spin and deception. Besides, what price do you set on our liberty?

Publius

@Viv Evans
"Once the markets open tomorrow, the wailings of the LibDems, Labour and the BBC in general will be seen for what they are: hot air by financially uneducated idiots."

Absolutely. The hysteria of the past two days is an irrelevant side-show.

ex-Tory Voter

@strapworld "Surely, Dennis Churchill, all the conservatives have to do is call an election with the stated promise to leave the EU as soon as possible, to restart our long trading partnership with the Commonwealth and the rest of the world." Ah, but could we trust them, strapworld? There's the rub. I'd love to be able to vote Conservative again, but I'm very wary. It isn't only Greeks bearing gifts of which one should beware.

Dennis Churchill

Widmerpool
December 11th, 2011 6:00pm
Of course the Treasury has modelled it a number of times and all political leaders know what the results are. That is why they have never been published.
strapworld
December 11th, 2011 6:04pm
But without the Cost Benefit analyses we would be subject to the “Trillion British Jobs...” “150% of our trade...” type sound bites.
When did you last hear someone counter these with the fact we run a trade deficit with the rest of the EU or pay well over the world price for food because of the CAP?
The British electorate will want to hear about money. They are not interested in Europe’s destiny. Even if they were they would not be told it is to be an ageing and declining area virtually being subject to siege by a growing North African population while their ponsi based welfare systems break down.

mattghg

MelFire, what have you been smoking? Spongers??? The UK's NET annual contribution to the EU budget is £10 BILLION!

Dimoto

It is interesting that, according to eye-witnesses, whilst Sarkozy was refusing to negotiate with Cameron, "Merkel sat silently, sphinx-like".

I don't think she has a clue about the "new treaty", she is just trying to limit German liabilities and give some "strict punishment" to the club Med delinquents.

Sarkozy reluctantly agreed to Merkel's agenda, but only if she would allow him to punish the City with a Tobin tax, and do away with such anomalies as low corporate taxes in Ireland.

I can almost here Sarkozy telling Merkel: "Cher Angela, leave the talking to me, I'll deal with Cameron".

starfish

Every time someone asks me to define 'groupthink', I think of Mr Korski and the other 'EU journos and commentators'

It is really possible to exist outside the Euro

Fatbloke on tour

DK

At least you are consistent, you are never able to see the wood for the trees.

The whole 26 - 1 construct is so Heath Robinson that it really does shoe Dave the Rave's negotiating powers in their full majesty.

That the French Dwarf and the German Cleavage wouldn't even discuss a fig leaf shows how far his stock and the stock of the country have fallen in the 18 months he has been calling the shots.

Three years ago when the Euro zone was in trouble they invited GB in to help them sort out their banks and their financial malaise.

Now we have another Euro crisis this times with the Sovereigns to the fore and Dave the Rave is shown the door even though he has brought his toy fire engine.

Sums it all up.

GB could hold his own in company and people were willing to listen to him. They might not agree with him and they might not like him but they were willing to let him have the floor because he knew the issues, knew TH gravity of the situation and they knew he had the answer or at least part of it.

Dave is the guest everyone wants rid off but politeness stops them from chucking him out until he goes just a little bit too far - a fart at the buffet table perhaps - and he is lobbed out on his ear with nobody offering to get him his jacket.

He is to statesmanship what NC - 1940 - was to the defence of Norway.
Completely out of his depth, playing to the gallery and about to sink without trace.

Billhab

Threaten to withold membership fees in the worst case. We are the the second largest nett contributor I believe. There is real leverage in cash.

London Liberal

@Dennis Churchill--would Japanese car firms,foreign banks etc view Britain leaving the EU with equanimity? I dont think so.

Russell

The press,tv,labour,LibDems and all pro EU and eurozone supporters keep up the ridiculous idea that the UK is 'Isolated'from the other eu members!!!!

The UK is in exactly the same position as each of the 27 members of the EU, i.e. 1 amongst 26 other viewpoints and interests.

The 17 eurozone countries and any of the other 9 countries who wish to join the euro are in a club of up to 26, each with their own views and interests following Mr Camerons decision not to allow the EU treaty to be used for such a club.

The UK thank God isn't in the eurozone club, so cannort be isolated on EU matters that only involve eurozone countries.

If eurozone countries attempt to do anything which is blatantly against the UK, the UK can and hopefully will immediately hold a referendum, explaining the situation to the electorate and get to withdraw from the EU.
France, Germany and many other eurozone countries would suffer by losing exports to the UK and the EU would lose £9billion net contribution to the EU budget.
All EU workers in the UK could be repatriated (I don't think Poland etc. would like that too much)

Who is exactly Isolated??

Don't believe a word from these pro EU spinners, it is they that are selfishly looking after their own interests at the expense of the whole EU.

Bring on the endgames asap.

Mirtha |Tidville

@fatbloke on tour

Many thanks, I needed a good laugh tonight and you have admirably provided the tonic...Do keep posting. Chin Chin

Verityred

Yoo hoo Fatbloke, up you pop to spread your feeble poison.

Still good for entertainment value, that must be some consolation for you, if not for those who hold your leash at Labour HQ!

Fatbloke on tour

Slapper @ 9.04

At the moment what do you have left?
Dave the Rave has spat in the punch bowl.
How long will it be before the Tories give him the boot.
Just not up to the job.

WIlliam Blakes Ghost

Someone take out the Eurotrash please.....

Dennis Churchill

London Liberal
December 11th, 2011 8:28pm
Why not? The same was said of the Euro.Dyson said if we didn’t join he would relocate. He did to Asia!
The car plants will stay as long as our employment regulations make it profitable. Outside the EU the Franco-Germans would need to consider if losing the £34 billion or so trade deficit we run with them is worth raising duty to the 3% or so allowed under WTO treaties.
The same with banks.
It no longer really matters where these are geographically just how they interlink globally.
But you really need to get out of the mid-20th century mindset that lumps countries together in big blocks because there are geographically close. A lot of this is because historically there was always a military threat that no longer applies in Europe.
The greatest threat, and one that cannot be avoided, is the demographics. They are now set. The welfare systems will not implode overnight and neither will the economies but start to run down decade by decade. This is really an experimental society that has been constructed in Europe. No human society has ever had the proportion of elderly as will occur in the next two decades let alone a generous welfare system based on current taxation of the decreasing workforce.

libertarian

Dear MelFie,

Thanks for that, happy to oblidge . Please let us know where you'd like the 1.3 million "European" benefit claimants sent back to and please feel free to send a BACS transfer for the £28 billion you owe us before you close down the European banking system.

Best of luck

Verityred

Yoo hoo Fatbloke, got under your paper thin skin yet again.

How I wish you were better sport. Still, always fun to have your slavish Labour stooge presence aboard.

Ps: your hero 'GB' couldn't find hid own arse with both his stumpy little hands. Back to the drawing board. You may go.

Nickle

Sarkozy knows the game is up. They are about to be downgraded, and with that downgrade, the ability to do any bailout goes.

After all, if they can't solve a small problem like a bankrupt Greece, they can't solve the big problems.

At the end of the day, it all comes back to politicians.

Tomorrow you will find out just how good a regulator Gordon Brown was.

Nickle

A lot of this is because historically there was always a military threat that no longer applies in Europe.

============

Quite right.

So when someone says it will result in war, the obvious question to ask, is who will start it?

When they can't answer, you know that they are probably the prime candidate.

disenfranchised

@dennis churchill.....

"the greatest threat and one that cannot be avoided is the demographics".

yes, demographics plus the other little factor with which mark steyn's "america alone" successfully frightened me to death.....

Dennis Churchill

Nickle
December 11th, 2011 9:40pm
Which is another reason why the 300 years of not allowing a European power to dominate the continent and Loss of World Influence is so out dated.
Europe is a rapidly ageing and declining area which will never threaten anyone militarily again. As for Influence...Influence what? The end of democracy in Greece and Italy? A successful way to put a currency union together? Financial accountability? Putting together Ponsi welfare systems? A practical energy strategy?
The only thing the Continental European political class can teach the world is how to live the High Life on public funds.

J Ramage-Hayes

The answer to the Sarkozy problem is Francois Hollande.Only five months to the second round of Presidential elections.

Hexhamgeezer

Wot Rhoda Klapp sez @ 4:12pm

This whole business for Mr Korski, Cameron, Nelson Et C is an intellectual exercise in creative self-abuse.

They have no real interest in what this mind wank has on the folk who do, create and think. This stuff is merely surfing the back end of the wave.

ButcombeMan

Serious question.

What is the point of Daniel Korski? Being here that is.

His analysis offers nothing new. He seems to understand very little about the UK and the EU/UK relationship. He writes regularly about the EU yet most commentators here disparage him.

I am utterly baffled as to why he is here.

fergus pickering

I hope our navy still has some little gunboats sinking portuguese trawlers for the use of. Melfie, you are ignorant or stupid or, most probably, both.

Maddy1

Did the French agro subsidy die at Quatre Bras as well?

Widmerpool

Dennis Churchill

Why if the numbers have been crunched can't some public spirited Treasury official[a contradiction in terms perhaps!] leak them to the Telegraph as some much other public interest information has been over the last couple of years? Then we can see the real cost to UK plc of our being in or out!

disenfranchised

@melfie....

and may i add to fergus pickering's appropriate comments as to your mental capabilities by saying that as the second biggest contributor to EU coffers your sponger comment fully reflects those capabilities.
may i further say that as the second biggest contributor to EU coffers, the EU needs britain far more than britain needs the EU.
get it now?

Dennis Churchill

Widmerpool
December 12th, 2011 7:15am
Remember the way Migration Watch was treated? All the information was available and the government knew Migration Watch’s figures were more accurate but kept denying it.
Civitas done a study :“A Cost Too Far” a few years’ back but the situation has got worse since then.
In economic terms we don’t benefit, although some sectors do, in fact with a massive trade deficit, being a net contributor and CAP it costs us a great deal. That is why EU pensioners such as Clegg will fight against any suggested cost benefit analyses.
In political terms since the Eurozone we gain little and as it changes into the Franco-German union we have nothing to gain as we would just be like Italy: a large province, rather than Greece, a small province.

Ghengis

Meanwhile - Those of you moaning that we are left unheard in EU circles need only to google Nigel Farage on utube to observe one politician expressing a British opinion.

Richard of Moscow

Korski's drivel aside, the upper echelons of the Conservative party obviously needs to decide when we should leave the EU, and must at the same time pretend to be "committed" to the EU when in the presence of Lib Dems, the BBC, the US, the FT and all the other hysterical socialist types.
If we leave it too late, they'll look like the French at the end of WWII, when all the jackboot-lickers pretended they were in the resistance all that time.

Archie

I have yet to be persuaded, Mr. Korski, why on earth we should be manacled to that glorified bordello across the channel!

Val Smith

They in Europe cannot live without any dictatorship or a dictator. The Pope, Louis XIV the Great, Napoleon Bonaparte, Hitler, they were all European. Nowadays they create a new 'collective' dictator called Merkozy. They instinctively wish to live under a new 'collective' dictatorship called the European Commission... Britain's destiny is to stay aside the crazy continent geographically and politically in order to rescue old Europe when the things there have gone too bad.

Verityred

Poor old Lindsay, how will he defend fellow geek and serial loser Ed this week?

See previous post folks, he pops up for a disastrous foray into the world of unscripted (ie not cut from his stagnant blog) comment with a desperate little squeal and then gets a slapping. A bit like Ed.

Verityred

Poor old Lindsay, how will he defend fellow geek and serial loser Ed this week?

See previous post folks, he pops up for a disastrous foray into the world of unscripted (ie not cut from his stagnant blog) comment with a desperate little squeal and then gets a slapping. A bit like Ed.