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Tuesday, 13th December 2011

Where we are now

Fraser Nelson 8:46am

Reading through the paper's this morning, it's even clearer that we didn't learn much from that marathon Europe debate yesterday. But here are my thoughts, anyway, on where it leaves us:

1) Ed Miliband lacked credibility from the outset. As Malcolm Rifkind put it, he’s had three days to work out whether he’d have signed that Treaty or not — and he still can’t make his mind up. God knows Cameron is vulnerable on this, but he won’t be hurt being attacked for indecision by a man who still cant make any decisions.

2) Clegg’s misjudgment, cont? First, Clegg backed Cameron after the veto. Now, he says he disagrees with Cameron. To stay away from parliament is the worst of all, it looks like cowardice (today’s Mail calls it ‘The Big Sulk’). It looks like a man being led by his party. Or worried about being outflanked by Paddy Ashdown, who seems to have gone into meltdown. Cameron, meanwhile, looked all the more like a conquering hero in the chamber yesterday — not defensive at all. Even questions from Lib Dems like Ming Campbell were supportive. Perhaps Clegg is so embarrassed about calling Britain a ‘pygmy’ on Sunday's Marr show (an error so grave that it requires no elaboration) that he thought it best to keep a low profile. But it looked dreadful.

3) The Lib Dems won’t trigger an election, as they’d probably finish behind UKIP. Cameron did not betray them, he went in with a pre-agreed strategy and dropped his own pledge to argue for repatriation of powers. Sarkozy thwarted that — no point blaming the PM, who acted honourably. The latest projections suggest the Lib Dems would lose two of every three seats held. You can bet they’re in no rush to test that out.

4) Labour MPs had no strategy. You’d think that, by now, Labour would have twigged that Cameron is always vulnerable on detail. Yesterday should have been a forensic cross-examination. Could the Prime Minister explain precisely what was his maximum concession was on the night? Was there an attempt to go down the Protocol 12 Route? What happened to the Sherpas? Aren’t they supposed to do all this in advance? Jack Straw and Beverley Hughes came close to this level of questioning, but most Labour MPs tried to make some political attack — which Cameron effortlessly battled away.

5) We learned nothing. I’d have hoped to have found out more details about what went on that night in Brussels. But we’re still none the wiser. The picture is still being slowly assembled: cock-up? Conspiracy? Is Cameron the Eurosceptic Messiah or a Very Naughty Boy? We should know more by the end of the week, but no thanks to MPs.

6) The Lib Dems best be careful who they call ‘bastards’. Paddy Ashdown said on Sky’s Murnaghan show on Sunday, ‘Major had the courage to stand up to his bastards’. The clear implication was that Cameron didn’t. Lord Ashdown then left a comment on a Coffee House post saying the b-word was, famously, Major’s — but his analogy is still weak. Cameron was not bullied by a minority, but was hemmed in by public opinion, enforced through the October rebellion of the 81 rebels. Most were new MPs who rebelled because they felt duty to their constituents trumped fealty to the coalition. Even Lord Ashdown should realise that just two-in-five Brits agree with our EU membership, just one-in-three think it has benefited us (and that’s the EU’s own data). The ‘bastards’ that Ashdown is referring to are, in this case, the British voters. On Marr, Clegg caricatured the man on the street’s reaction as a desire to ‘stick two fingers up to Brussels’. That’s unworthy of him. It may well be that Lib Dems think the public can’t be trusted to understand an issue as complex as Europe. But it’s dangerous to admit this. Lack of respect is normally mutual.

7) Meanwhile, the Eurozone is still unraveling. Italian bond yields are up to 6.79 per cent as Monti’s technocrats seem to lack the requisite Bunga Bunga. The German government may have to bail out Commerzbank, which itself could be a wobbling domino. Last Thursday was a cynical power grab by the French and Germans, doing nothing to help the debt crisis which is now ongoing.

8) And the EU may start to take out its revenge on Britain. They’re making out as if Cameron wants no regulation on the City — whereas he just wants British regulation (in terms of capital requirements, it’s actually more than Brussels proposes). This has become a power game, and Brussels seems determined to win (see the latest developments). Such antagonism will make it harder to save our EU membership.

9) Does Merkel wants another summit before Christmas? I just heard this last night, and cannot assume that it’s a joke. But Thursday’s deal did nothing to resolve the debt crisis (the IMF thing was a proposal, and one hotly disputed). The Americans are refusing to put any money into it, and the withdrawal of American finance from the European situation is graver than any diplomatic hiccup.

10) Let’s have the next EU Crisis Meeting at the O2 Centre. We should not get used to a series of ‘crisis’ summits — and we should at least vary it by changing the venue and format. Rather than a 7pm dinner in Brussels, the next EU Crisis summit could be at the O2 Centre, headlined by the Glee cast, and you could sell tickets. This may do more to stem the Eurozone debt crisis than anything these EU leaders are capable of agreeing.

Filed under: Coalition (2090 more articles) , Conservatives (2313 more articles) , David Cameron (1912 more articles) , Ed Miliband (698 more articles) , Europe (754 more articles) , Labour (2142 more articles) , Liberal Democrats (1156 more articles) , Nick Clegg (706 more articles) , Parliament (254 more articles) , UK politics (5408 more articles)

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Comments Post comment

Nicholas

December 13th, 2011 9:04am Report this comment

The BBC are still pushing Cameron's Crime and the coalition split this morning - you can almost hear the anticipatory glee from their "impartial" news editorial teams as they work hard to keep the story going. And still not a word about the damning of Blair, Brown and Balls by the FSA.

Not even a pretence anymore. The Tories should go after the BBC ruthlessly and rip them a new one.

telemachus'

December 13th, 2011 9:12am Report this comment

Major had the courage to stand up to his bastards’.
This is the most telling comment
Ultimate weakness

telemachus'

December 13th, 2011 9:18am Report this comment

Worth reading the BBC news site about Downing Street Stupidity
The Tories cannot suppress truth

dorothy wilson

December 13th, 2011 9:26am Report this comment

Barosso is, apparently, currently addressing the EU Parliament and blaming the UK for the failure of the EU to have a plan to save the euro.

Last week I made a post suggesting that the EU powers-that-be were setting the UK up to pay for the euro mess [the Tobin tax]. If they couldn't pull that off we would be blamed for the failure of the euro.

I then queried whether I was being paranoid. It now seems that I was not.

Arthur

December 13th, 2011 9:29am Report this comment

They should have the next EU 'Save the Euro' summit on the pitch at half-time during a Heineken Cup match. That gives them 15 minutes to sort things out before the big men come back and trample all over them. Clearly the economic reality isn't dangerous enough for them, they need the threat of physical danger to focus the mind.

Sarkozy's like a naughty boy looking for someone else to blame. "What happened to your currency, Nicholas?" "A big Anglo-Saxon broke it then ran away." "There there, I'll find him and tell him off." "Thanks Angela..."

Vulture

December 13th, 2011 9:31am Report this comment

If Cameron wants a Conservative Govt he should call a GE as soon as the Xmas festivities are out of the way. Labour are in La-La land; the Lib Dems on the floor and still digging; and the Tories united behind him.

Have just heard Barroso's big speech to the EU's puppet Parliament. He almost exploded with squeaking rage against Britain. Apparently when the Euro goes tits up its all going to be our fault.

An (11) lesson learned from the w/end to add to Fraser's admirable list is the fact that there's so much hatred of Britain boiling in the breasts of our European 'partners'. If for no other reason this is the clincher abt why we do not belong in the EU: they hate our guts with passion. And there was I thinking it was supposed to unite us all in one big happy family - silly me.

@telemachus: I have been brooding overnight on your eminently sensible suggestion yesty that Gordon Brown should be appointed as our Euro envoy-cum-financial advisor to the EU. If we really want to f**k them up big time that's exactly what we should do. Gordo to go to Brussels as our Xmas present to our European friends!

Mycroft

December 13th, 2011 9:32am Report this comment

Excellent post, Mr Nelson. The nly tw clear things about this so far is that Clegg has mishandled this spectacularly (the changes of course, the fatal pygmy remark, the absence from the chamber), totally destroying his reputation among those who were still willing to give him the benefit of the doubt, and that the coverage on the BBC and some other media outlets has not even made a pretence at being unbiased.

Viv Evans

December 13th, 2011 9:38am Report this comment

The more this overblown outrage about Cameron's veto goes on, here and on the continent, the more it becomes clear that the Merkozies and the rest of the lot, MSM included, are playing a shell game.
There is hardly any reporting in the political pages or comments on how this meeting has done nothing to sort out the ever growing Euro crisis.
Cameron and we Brits have been made into a perfect scape goat, and one might ask why our own, home-grown socialists in Parliament and the media prefer to follow the EU propaganda than doing their own investigations.

As for Ashdown and the other has beens like Heseltine, their fulminations simply show that they have no understanding of financial realities. That goes for Clegg as well. Do they not realise that a Euro debacle, which is coming closer every day, will affect us here as well?
Political posturing of the worst kind - but what worked for them twenty years ago doesn't work now. They just don't understand that we, the electorate, are far more clued up than they are.

Andrew Fletcher

December 13th, 2011 9:39am Report this comment

All "sound" Coffee Housers should be completely clear exactly where we are now

The 81 have Cameron exactly where they want him - right in their pocket but he will try to wriggle free - it's fantastic that he can look like he is strong BUT has now lost the ability to stand up to all us "bastards"

We need to keep the pressure on the 81 to push for an In/Out Referendum asap -

We need to let Carswell et al know that we will not allow them to sell out

There is no threat from Labour so long as they keep Ed as leader

This is no time to relax - get along to MP's Surgeries, write to MP's and post on all the relevant forums

The more the Wets squeal and become abusive on these forums the more we know we are winning the argument !!

Magnolia

December 13th, 2011 9:41am Report this comment

I think Nick Clegg is rather a poor politician because he is an egomaniac.He thinks of himself all the time.
Firstly we were treated to knowledge about the generous number of his sexual partners and last Sunday his vision of Britain "standing tall and leading the debate from the centre" was really referring to his vision of how he sees himself in Europe.
It's me, me, me. He must have been a very indulged and petulant little boy.
In contrast, I like to think that an Eton boy can recognise and deal with a set of bullies when he sees them and the noises that are coming out of the EU this morning sound very much like Fascism to me.
The pro-Europeans are letting themselves down very badly as they loose the political consensus that they have taken for granted for so many decades. They stifled debate, set up their BBC propaganda machine in their image and they can't understand why they have lost control of the news management.
They are bad losers and it's disgusting.
I like to think that David Cameron had recurring nightmares about the ERM crisis that he wanted to put to bed forever and that our clever Yorkshire born Foreign Secretary told him just how to do it.

pete-s

December 13th, 2011 9:42am Report this comment

"suppress truth" the BBC does this every day!

TomTom

December 13th, 2011 9:47am Report this comment

Fraser, who cares ? We are sitting on a $2.5 TRILLION time bomb in Europe with the simple fact that either the Banks go BUST or the Countries do. Fred Goodwin shows us how you roll over a "Regulator". The whole System is Over. We are in 1931-Squared.

Clegg is an irrelevance, a footnote. The Scale of the Financial Tsunami that is approaching will make these twits look like bobbing corks. Let's start on an Action Plan before Sarkozy plunges Europe into a 1920s Disaster just to get re-elected. I mean, no Private Sector Bond Haircuts !!! The taxpayer is good for everything and can eat grass !

Jon Stack

December 13th, 2011 9:48am Report this comment

Excellent idea Fraser, and just in time for the pantomime season. Oh such fun to be had: Sarkozy as Widow Twankey perhaps?

Publius

December 13th, 2011 9:51am Report this comment

Looks to me that Brussels has decided to attempt a Greece and Italy on Cameron -- i.e., do their best to bring down the government and replace it with a compliant one more to their liking.

Publius

December 13th, 2011 9:54am Report this comment

As Boris rightly says, what they really hate is that we were right all along about the wretched euro.

disenfranchised

December 13th, 2011 9:59am Report this comment

when the great ashdown appeared on these pages i was somewhat surprised that he didn't receive even a mild spot of ad hominem.
i have to take from that the fact that speccys didn't consider him, or his comment, worthy.
as for the bbc, i asserted for a while on the grauniad that their disgraceful propaganda machine would be in deep shite once the tories were back in power. but obviously the libdims stamped and screamed down any attempts by the tories to do what so desperately needed to be done.
have to say, i didn't think it would ever hate a group of politicians as much as i hated the last lot, and then along came clegg, cable, huhne, etc.
still, they can't have long now, can they?

Mycroft

December 13th, 2011 10:00am Report this comment

"The 81 have Cameron exactly where they want him - right in their pocket but he will try to wriggle free - it's fantastic that he can look like he is strong BUT has now lost the ability to stand up to all us "bastards"

We need to keep the pressure on the 81 to push for an In/Out Referendum asap -"

This precisely what Clegg and his like are saying, and thankfully it's not true; Cameron is not daft enough to wreck the government, the Conservative party, and the Union too, by holding a referendum about leaving the EU at the present time. It would be exceedingly foolish, moreover, to extrapolate from poll figures to the conclusion that a majority would actually vote to leave the EU after considering all the implications. It is essential that any fundamental decisions should be delayed until it is known wheteher the Euro will survive in its present form. If it does not, eveything will be opened up for examination.

Ghengis

December 13th, 2011 10:04am Report this comment

And in our defence Nigel Farage puts it straight as usual "you've decided to be on the Titanic, whilst we're outside on the Loveboat"

DavidDP

December 13th, 2011 10:04am Report this comment

"And the EU may start to take out its revenge on Britain"

On the other hand, the German foreign minister said that he thinks that Britain shoulf be able to get the compromises it was looking for (and at least one German newspaper said that Germany had lost a key ally against fiscal irresponsibility).

In some respects, claiming the EU will have its revenge is pretty much accepting the Europhile claims of UK irrelevancy.

Echo34

December 13th, 2011 10:05am Report this comment

China has now "used their veto" regarding aid for the ailing euro according to Guido.

Are they at risk of becoming isolated?

Nicholas Hallam

December 13th, 2011 10:07am Report this comment

""If this move was intended to prevent bankers and financial corporations of the City from being regulated, that's not going to happen," he told reporters in Brussels."

Olli Rehn, EU Commissioner on Economic and monetary affairs

This is a disgraceful misreading of the situation. Mr Rehn cannot be unaware of the existence of the FSA. Neither, given his position, can he be ignorant of the recommendations on capitalisation in the Vickers Report.

It should hardly need saying that it is not market regulation that concerns the British government, but the use of the powers of the EU regulator ESMA to undermine the profitability of the UK financial sector.

If, as is rumoured, the FTT is now recharacterised as a "user charge" or "fee" instead of a "tax", thereby circumventing the British veto on taxation matters, Cameron may well find himself forced to countenance abandonment of the EU altogether or else suffer a complete humiliation.

Russell

December 13th, 2011 10:11am Report this comment

The bbc should rename the Daily Politics 'The Daily Labour Show' with lord oakshott as their permanent presenter, oakshott also seems to be the bbc choice for newsnight which should be renamed 'labournight.
To complete the bbc 'balanced' reporting, oakshott can also present the Politics show which should be renamed 'Sunday Labour'.

People need to make official complaints to the bbc and their MP, and the No10 website in their millions, insisting the licence fee is removed and the labour corporation forced to become a subscriber channel.

Sky appears to have been infected with the bbc anti cameron disease as well since Friday, but at least people aren't forced by law to pay a fee to them, people can simply withdraw their subscription if they feel sky are being biassed.

In2minds

December 13th, 2011 10:13am Report this comment

Interesting, well I think so, take on the PC language thingy -

Clegg should be 'embarrassed' for using the word ‘pygmy’ but 'Sherpas' is OK.

Axstane

December 13th, 2011 10:17am Report this comment

I suspect we will not need an EU referendum at all. It may well be that that the EU as we have known it will implode within 3 months. We will not need to leave it as it will cease to exist.

At this moment, when the Euro is in real and perhaps terminal crisis we have Prodi, Sarkozy and Merkel spending their time and energies on blaming Cameron and the UK for the Euro crisis!

Since they are obviously unable to think clearly about their problems they will not find any solution and the markets will decide the fate of the Euro.

Chris lancashire

December 13th, 2011 10:20am Report this comment

Whilst all this obsessing goes on with the UK's relations with the EU it hides the real news that the EU singularly failed to solve any part of the Euro problem last week. Merkel and Sarkozy are abysmal leaders for this crisis and Barroso remains the joke he always was. Unfortunately this slowly unravelling catastrophe has the potential to do untold harm to our economy.

And as for the ludicrous Ashdown and past it Heseltine (don't these grandees just love their titles?) the best we can do is totally ignore them.

Swiss Bob

December 13th, 2011 10:22am Report this comment

I'm pretty sure Clegg changed his tune over the weekend after calls from 'friends' in Brussels.

Spineless bugger.

michael

December 13th, 2011 10:24am Report this comment

"Apparently when the Euro goes tits up its all going to be our fault."

That's always been THE Merkozy/Bruxelles political imperative.

Over the years most Eurozoners have been encouraged to think we(UK)(unlike Norway and Switzerland) were not really EU members. The difference between the two (EU/Eurozone) identities deliberately blurred.
-From engineered apathy to expedient hatred is not such a big leap...Bastard banking British won't pay !
It's an easy sell, and for Merkozy, political gold dust.

jules

December 13th, 2011 10:35am Report this comment

Face the facts....The Euro is dead. The EU is yesterday's market. We should be looking to all the emerging market, China, India, South America and reconnecting with Commonwealth markets. The Germans and the French must be made to shore up the Euro - they are the only ones to benefit from it. If it collapses Germany and France would find their currencies revalued and their goods would be priced out of the market. More power to Cameron's elbow, we should be right behind him!

Nicholas Hallam

December 13th, 2011 10:38am Report this comment

"I'm pretty sure Clegg changed his tune over the weekend after calls from 'friends' in Brussels."

Swiss Bob, that wouldn't in any way be connected with the revocable EU pension which other Coffee Housers say that he holds?

johnOfEnfield

December 13th, 2011 10:39am Report this comment

Can we please acknowledge the elephant in the Union? The Euro does not have the institutions of a reserve currency. Germany won't back it, France can't back it and the PIGS shouldn't be in it.

All the rest of the current garbage is irrelevant in the face of this insurmountable problem. The markets are now facing up to this issue and we are merely waiting for a trigger to set off the destruction of the Euro and with it the Eurozone and possibly the EU.

Does anyone disagree with this analysis?

I thought socialism ended in 1991 but it will have its last spasm in 2012.

Pettros

December 13th, 2011 10:40am Report this comment

The BBC is left wing! Shock horror.
Its flippin public sector....of course it is!

Manic Depressive

December 13th, 2011 10:42am Report this comment

Please- lets get our facts right - it was a European Council meeting ! Richard North puts together a sensible portrait of likely events - http://eureferendum.blogspot.com/2011/12/story-so-far.html

Swiss Bob

December 13th, 2011 10:53am Report this comment

Nicholas,

I did read somewhere (here?) that Clegg has no EU pension, that from Downing St after an FOI request.

He's just another dyed in the wool Euro federalist who thinks people are too stupid to be allowed any role in the decision making process i.e. voting.

MajorFrustration

December 13th, 2011 10:55am Report this comment

I do hope the Government(BoE) and our banks are using the time to reduce their exposurer to EU banks. Would hate to find that whilst all this non action is taking place that we are uplifitng our support to the EU etc.

libertarian

December 13th, 2011 10:55am Report this comment

Dear telemachus'

"its worth reading the BBC news website" Er sorry no it isn't why would I want to inflict political propaganda on myself?

Holly ......

December 13th, 2011 11:01am Report this comment

The MSM played up the 81 as a problem for Cameron. Pushed it & pushed it, like they always do. They forgot however, to include the 57% of the British people who agree with the 81 and Cameron.

The MSM will win the Conservatives the next election. They just haven't clicked yet, that pushing the 'Britain is a pygmy' and Miliband's, 'Britain and her people are unable to cope' without the likes of him, line day in, day out is really p****** us off.
However hard the MSM try, Slagging off your own country and the present government will NEVER endear us to Miliband/Balls.

Vulture

December 13th, 2011 11:04am Report this comment

BBC 'news' is leading on Barroso's absurd speech blaming Britain for everything that's going wrong with the Euro.

If the boys from Brussels Broadcasting really think the people of this country are going to believe a Portuguese Maoist squeaker with a face like a case of haemorroids they really are delusional.

No, the really important news is the one highlighted by echo34 (hattip Guido Fawkes): that the Wall Street Journal is reporting that China, having given the EU
debts the once over, has declined to invest to save the Euro. It's doomed, or, as they say in Beijing, 'loomed'.

62 Chinese companies are listed on London stock markets - a whole lot more than Frankfurt or Paris, which explains all the rage and bluster from Merkozy & Barroso.
Now who's 'isolated'?

Tough tittie chaps : looks like your pet project just failed.

jules

December 13th, 2011 11:09am Report this comment

johnofenfield - spot on!

Carlos

December 13th, 2011 11:22am Report this comment

Who can doubt that Clegg's telephone has been red-hot as a result of calls from Brussels, Paris and Berlin? The EU will certainly to destabilise the Coalition; Merkozy et al - as well as the BBC - would just love a Lib-Lab government after the next election

starfish

December 13th, 2011 11:28am Report this comment

I think Chris L has it spot on

While the MSM continues to absorb itself with 'coalition split' stories, the Euro is still in mortal danger and NOTHING HAS BEEN DONE TO SAVE IT!!!!!!!!!!!!

Nicholas Hallam

December 13th, 2011 11:32am Report this comment

Courtesy of the BBC:

"In his speech to MEPs, Mr Barroso said: "As you know, one member state was opposed to amending the Lisbon Treaty.

"The United Kingdom, in exchange for giving its agreement, asked for a specific protocol on financial services which, as presented, was a risk to the integrity of the internal market."

If this is the official EU position, then it is difficult to see how the UK can retain its EU membership without allowing the EU regulators to drive the bulk of UK financial business to venues not affected by the continental hatred of markets.

Echo34

December 13th, 2011 11:52am Report this comment

Vulture,

Rumour is the chinese asked to see the accounts first.

Swiss Bob

December 13th, 2011 12:09pm Report this comment

Andrew Neil from Strasbourg:

I paraphrase but, "The deal is unravelling, Merkel is now saying that another crisis meeting may be required before Christmas".

Cameron has clearly done the right thing though probably for the wrong reason.

Dennis Churchill

December 13th, 2011 12:20pm Report this comment

Swiss Bob
December 13th, 2011 10:22am
Probably from their Pensions department pointing out the small print.

TrevorsDen

December 13th, 2011 12:26pm Report this comment

its absurd to say that 'the 81' have Cameron in thie pocket.

Cameron went to the summit with a simple proviso and France could not wait to refuse it. Germany too.

The EU have walked away from Britain, though it probably suits Cameron to pretend otherwise. The plain fact is that had he agreed to some hurried weasel words then that would have been sidestepped in due course - so Cameron was very wise indeed to say he would not sign up to anything.

The Euro is their problem no and they are miles away from a solution since the EU want the poorest to pay and suffer most. it seems to me that is not going to work and even if some fudge is reached there will be endless problems as they argue and fudge over the inevitable breaches in whatever agreement they sign.

Dennis Churchill

December 13th, 2011 12:28pm Report this comment

The error the Federalists are making can be summed up in the Pygmies remark and that is being Pro-European Union is starting to be the same as Anglophobic. If this is allowed to continue, and the noises from Brussels suggest it will, then the pressure to leave will be irresistible. I wonder if the Franco-Germans have Game Played this. Not only our contribution will be lost but any disruption to trade will impact badly on them as we run such a high deficit.

Tom B

December 13th, 2011 12:29pm Report this comment

One thing I have learned is that once a politician such as David Cameron breaks free of the conventional wisdom, and gives the usual suspects in the media and politics a shock, there is no way back. These people don't forgive or forget. But DC has done the right thing, and for the right reasons.

It may sound petty, but you can tell about a person and a politician by the kind of enemies or critics they have. And DC has started to attract the right sort of critics: the FT (consistently wrong about the euro), the BBC (see previous entry); Guardian (ditto), the European Commission (ditto again).

I am hardly a DC fan, and he needs to do more to convince me that he understands the gravity of what's at stake. But this has been a good start.

We live in interesting times.

David Cockerham

December 13th, 2011 12:33pm Report this comment

Thank you, Rhys, for asking exactly the questions I asked on an earlier Coffee House post (and unlike me getting some responses), and thank you Julian F and Starfish for responding and getting the real debate going in the midst of all the abusive ranting that the Spectator’s superb journalism so regularly and depressingly generates from Coffee House followers.

I find it hard to believe though, Julian F, that the explanation can be the wording of that particular article in the draft treaty as you suggest. If it were so, surely the Government would be screaming it from the rooftops and providing it as a line to take to all their supporters who have been so strikingly unable to answer the question on air or in the press.

My own suspicion is that, despite his denials, Cameron DID make a bid for a very substantial repatriation of an existing EU power, not simply a ‘moderate’ request for protection of the City against new EU powers. In short, he made a bid to overthrow the EXISTING Qualified Majority rule on financial services and replace it with a unanimity rule on those bits of FS policy most crucially important to London, giving the UK a veto on them which it does not currently enjoy (except on new taxes). When that failed he was faced with the choice of coming home with nothing or waving a Chamberlaine-esque piece of paper with the word ‘veto’ on it which was, in reality, pretty meaningless. The interesting question for me now is, did he foresee that this would be the outcome before he went, but thought it was his least bad option, or did he really think he could pull it off and secure the unanimity rule? And what did Clegg think when he approved the negotiating hand?

I’m no lover of Sarkozy, but I’m not sure I buy the notion that he shafted Cameron just for his own political glory and for the glory of France, and to shove the UK to the margins of the EU or out altogether. Why on earth should Merkel have let him do that when she has all the cards and when she wanted a Treaty of the 27 if at all possible? The truth surely is that neither of them could accept the principle of a UK veto over the financial services policies of their proposed fiscal union, which is what Cameron was in effect asking for (the very wording of the treaty article to which you refer, Julian F, is what would have given the UK that veto if Cameron had got his way).

What I find most ludicrous is the repeated assertion by Paddy Ashtown on Newsnight last night that if Clegg had been negotiating instead of Cameron the UK proposal would have been accepted. He cannot seriously believe that, can he?

David Cockerham

December 13th, 2011 12:38pm Report this comment

Thank you, Rhys, for asking on an earlier thread exactly the questions I asked on another Coffee House post (and unlike me getting some responses), and thank you Julian F and Starfish for responding on that thread and getting the real debate going in the midst of all the abusive ranting that the Spectator’s superb journalism so regularly and depressingly generates from Coffee House followers.

I find it hard to believe though, Julian F, that the explanation can be the wording of that particular article in the draft treaty as you suggest. If it were so, surely the Government would be screaming it from the rooftops and providing it as a line to take to all their supporters who have been so strikingly unable to answer the question on air or in the press.

My own suspicion is that, despite his denials, Cameron DID make a bid for a very substantial repatriation of an existing EU power, not simply a ‘moderate’ request for protection of the City against new EU powers. In short, he made a bid to overthrow the EXISTING Qualified Majority rule on financial services and replace it with a unanimity rule on those bits of FS policy most crucially important to London, giving the UK a veto on them which it does not currently enjoy (except on new taxes). When that failed he was faced with the choice of coming home with nothing or waving a Chamberlaine-esque piece of paper with the word ‘veto’ on it which was, in reality, pretty meaningless. The interesting question for me now is, did he foresee that this would be the outcome before he went, but thought it was his least bad option, or did he really think he could pull it off and secure the unanimity rule? And what did Clegg think when he approved the negotiating hand?

I’m no lover of Sarkozy, but I’m not sure I buy the notion that he shafted Cameron just for his own political glory and for the glory of France, and to shove the UK to the margins of the EU or out altogether. Why on earth should Merkel have let him do that when she has all the cards and when she wanted a Treaty of the 27 if at all possible? The truth surely is that neither of them could accept the principle of a UK veto over the financial services policies of their proposed fiscal union, which is what Cameron was in effect asking for (the very wording of the treaty article to which you refer, Julian F, is what would have given the UK that veto if Cameron had got his way).

What I find most ludicrous is the repeated assertion by Paddy Ashtown on Newsnight last night that if Clegg had been negotiating instead of Cameron the UK proposal would have been accepted. He cannot seriously believe that, can he?

General Zod

December 13th, 2011 12:43pm Report this comment

Don't forget, just as in the 90s when we refused to join the Euro, non-EU companies will move from here to the continent or establish there if they're not already here.

Or, in the real world, they will continue to come here because of our reasonably sane labour laws and corporate (not personal) tax regime.

Frank P

December 13th, 2011 12:46pm Report this comment

Where are we now? Being thoroughly buggered by 'Brussels'! That's where we are. As we were before this eruption and will continue to be until a political party arises from the desolated ruins of our once great country that will rescue us from this perpetual pestilence. CAMERON -CALL AN ELECTION – NOW!

And who, may I ask, is paying for this ongoing fucking circus in Cern? I've just been watching the MSM at large colluding in yet another gigantic Euroscam by projecting, via Spielberg Dreamworld computer graphics, the 'possible' presence or 'possible' non-presence (a bit of a get out clause there don’tcha think?) of a 'God Particle'. Apparently whichever way the cookie crumbles it has opened up 'more possibilities for further research' and will not mean the closure of the Hadron Collider? At about £9b a throw, I bet it fucking won't! Am I the only one with con-Cern over this latest mega-piss-take? My arse is more likely to be a God particle than what they are looking for and at the moment it's sticking out so far with frustration at the gullibility (or egregious grifting) of EUSSR governments that you could slice a maxi-pack of chocolate-coated mini-donuts off it. Call the Black Maria and nick the lot of 'em! Btw, my brother, who was a sailor in WW2, one told me about a Bosun called Higgs who sent him to look for the Golden Rivet, when he was in training on his first ship This wouldn’t be the same Bosun Higgs who’s pulling this scam too, would it? As Andy Car Park would ask …. well, just scroll back to line one, sentence two of my comment, or get Andy to show you his placard. Or the Golden Rivet … whatever!

David Cockerham

December 13th, 2011 12:47pm Report this comment

Paddy Ashdown cannot seriously believe, as he repeatedly asserted on Newsnight last night, that if Clegg had played Cameron's hand Merkozy would have given him what they refused Cameron?

SteveS

December 13th, 2011 1:21pm Report this comment

The God particle should be named the 'Cameron' following his miraculous achievements at the European Council meeting, although Nick Clegg will try to claim that if he had been at the summit the God Particle would have been discovered earlier and with greater benefits to the UK as a result.

Heartless P.

December 13th, 2011 1:24pm Report this comment

Way past time that the H2B made a determined effort to clean out the BBC stables of the muck and ordure that, in spite of sweet words BY the H2B, still permeates that wretched place.

wrinkled weasel

December 13th, 2011 1:34pm Report this comment

Did anybody else notice the appalling grocer's apostrophe:"paper's"?

Mycroft

December 13th, 2011 1:38pm Report this comment

"The error the Federalists are making can be summed up in the Pygmies remark and that is being Pro-European Union is starting to be the same as Anglophobic. If this is allowed to continue, and the noises from Brussels suggest it will, then the pressure to leave will be irresistible."

I think the Germans appreciate this and are being more cautious in what they say.

Ashdown's assertion that Sarkozy and Merkel refused the Brtish proposals merely because it was Cameron who was offering them is plainly nonsense. With regard to Merkel at least, it a groteque slander to suppose that she would be so petty, and it is plain in any case that Cameron is a eminently reasonable and civilized to deal wrih (even if he cannot be relied upon always to keel over like a Eurofanatic Lib Dem).

graeme calver

December 13th, 2011 1:43pm Report this comment

Cameron is gaining in stature by the day. He went to Brussels and did what he said he would do. He did not betray the Lib Dems and isn't now - he could quite easily precipitate a GE at this point.
Regarding the criticsm that "the negotiations were mishandled" - I say this : this is not the 12th century of shifting allegiances - this is supposssed to be a democracy. (Except in italy and Greece of course).
The other allegation " we are no longer at the top table of 26 ". To which I say - haven't you been following this - there are only two at the top table, and one of those is only there to make the coffee!
About the BBC : seriously now , beyond a joke. Certainly the Government shouldn't do anything, but the BBC has a duty to all of us enshrined in its' Charter. What has been going on must be in breach of that ? Perhaps this should be settled in the High Court?

Fatbloke on tour

December 13th, 2011 1:50pm Report this comment

Trevor

Dave the Rave played a poor hand very badly.
It was my way or the highway.

The 26 showed him the door and handed him a bus timetable.

He has been used and abused.
He is out of his depth.

Did his political cover for the Poisoned Dwarf over Libya not count for anything?

You know the answer but you will not say anything.

Dave really is the political body double of JM.
That is the first JM, Maggie's toy boy.
Shiny, bright public school type.
Well bred, good manners.
Not up to the job in hand.

Robert

December 13th, 2011 1:59pm Report this comment

Mr Cameron wanted regulations on the banks which were actually more strict than those which Brussels would have demanded.
So you might call it the:
More-strict treaty
geddit?

suit yourself

fergus pickering

December 13th, 2011 2:25pm Report this comment

Fatbloke, did you say that the excellent John Major is a public school type? Did you say that? It's difficult to tell what you do say. Perhaps you meant to say that he's not an oik, like Balls, or a twerp, like the Brothers Millipede

Nicholas Hallam

December 13th, 2011 2:35pm Report this comment

I don't think anybody would be so unkind as to suggest that John Major went to public school. I took it that FBOT was referring to John Moore.

Widmerpool

December 13th, 2011 2:37pm Report this comment

I know I have posted it before but when I read the suggestion that the Chinese were being "isolated" by not backing the Eurobail out I thought of this:
"Also last night, the chairman of the supervisory board of China Investment Corporation, the country’s sovereign wealth fund, put further distance between China and the eurozone bail-out, saying that Europe’s bloated welfare state meant that people did not work hard enough.
“I think if you look at the troubles which happened in European countries, this is purely because of the accumulated troubles of their worn out welfare societies,” Jin Liqun said in an interview with Al Jazeera television. “I think the labour laws are outdated – the labour laws induce sloth, indolence rather than hard working. The incentive system is totally out of whack.”
Eurozone leaders had been hoping that China would use some of its trade surplus to back the bail-out fund"

The guy running the CIC has about $410bn to invest I am sure he is quaking in his shoes about being told off by Captain Barroso and the other goons in Brussels!

whatawaste

December 13th, 2011 2:51pm Report this comment

The extent to which the German government will bail out Commerzbank may well indicate if their reserves are sufficient to bail out the EZ. This is a crucial period, and as indicated above the Chinese are staying well clear of the EZ.

Cynic

December 13th, 2011 2:57pm Report this comment

"It may well be that Lib Dems think the public can’t be trusted to understand an issue as complex as Europe." It isn't just the LibDems. All mainstream parties subscribe to the "we know best" way of thinking and don't trust the electorate. They tell us what they think we want to hear once every five years and then, once elected, do what they intended in the first place. Clegg isn't alone in speaking five languages - I do, too, but I don't have an EU pension riding on my being fully signed up to giving away our national sovereignty. I thought the pygmy reference was an insult to our historical achievements. We were a successful trading nation before the EU was even a twinkle in Monnet's eye. We can be again, if only we can shuck off the dead hand of EU (French-led) dirigisme and over regulation that typifies the EU. Incidentally, new research shows that people are happiest when they feel they "belong" to a country. No wonder the EU apparatchiks are so miserable (look at their faces).

disenfranchised

December 13th, 2011 2:58pm Report this comment

@vulture....

a face like chalfonts (i can't spell hemerrerroids) and "loomed" did it for me! great stuff.
but do you think the EU are now concentrating on spoiling all our christmases? it's the sort of thing they continually have meetings about in brussels' corridors of power. the rooms are always too full up with booze, boom, boom.......

Cynic

December 13th, 2011 3:00pm Report this comment

@telemachus' "Worth reading the BBC news site about Downing Street Stupidity
The Tories cannot suppress truth.
" Promulgated by the Ministry of Truth, presumably. The BBC and truth have long been divorced, I'm afraid.

DavidDP

December 13th, 2011 3:10pm Report this comment

"Trevor

Dave the Rave played a poor hand very badly.
It was my way or the highway.

The 26 showed him the door and handed him a bus timetable.

He has been used and abused.
He is out of his depth.

Did his political cover for the Poisoned Dwarf over Libya not count for anything?"

Anyone have a translation? This is really unintelligable. For a start, who is Trevor?

Tom Pride

December 13th, 2011 3:10pm Report this comment

"And the EU may start to take out its revenge on Britain"

* * * * *
Publius
December 13th, 2011 9:51am
Looks to me that Brussels has decided to attempt a Greece and Italy on Cameron -- i.e., do their best to bring down the government and replace it with a compliant one more to their liking.

* * * * *
Swiss Bob
December 13th, 2011 10:22am
I'm pretty sure Clegg changed his tune over the weekend after calls from 'friends' in Brussels.

* * * * *

If there is fire here rather than just smoke – this is unacceptable hostile interference. The Prime Minister should take the necessary precautions and authorise an appropriate response.

Cynic

December 13th, 2011 3:22pm Report this comment

"And the EU may start to take out its revenge on Britain" If so, do we really want to be in a club that behaves this way? We are virtually the only one that plays by the rules, for heaven's sake! Not only that, it costs us a fortune - some 50bn a day! The more the EUropeans try to marginalise us or "punish" us, the clearer it will become to even the least politically aware of those outside Westminster that we are better off out. Meanwhile, nothing has been done to fix the euro (not that I believe it can be fixed without thinking the unthinkable as far as the EU is concerned, ie letting the PIIGs leave their vanity project). Events, dear boy, events! Meanwhile, Cameron has made a good start. I hope the 81 honorable members will hold his feet to the fire and made sure he can't backtrack.

mattghg

December 13th, 2011 3:26pm Report this comment

It may well be that Lib Dems think the public can’t be trusted to understand an issue as complex as Europe

Yeah, that pretty much appears to be their attitude. Contempt for their eletorates is par for the course with europhiles all over the continent. What was it that that Danish commissioner said about giving the vote to 'women and truck drivers'?

Fatbloke on tour

December 13th, 2011 3:39pm Report this comment

Dippy Dave @ 3.10

Trevor is the fastest spinner in the Nelson family even though his brother is a Adam.

He is also head loon of the SpeccyLand tribe.
Tutored by Brillo but not unfortunately in Economics.
He is also a partisan Tory booster.

Hope that helps.

Nicholas

December 13th, 2011 3:48pm Report this comment

You always know when the socialist collective is rattled because out come their damage control trolls like Fatbloke, feverishly posting nonsense and hoping some of their scripted phrases take root.

So pre-1997 and Campbell.

Nicholas

December 13th, 2011 3:50pm Report this comment

And what are you Fatbloke if not a "partisan Labour booster"? And thus - so?

Or do you really believe that guff the socialist collective has been force feeding the gullible, stupid and unwary for 50+ years is the infallible truth?

Nicholas

December 13th, 2011 3:58pm Report this comment

Especially cuntish is the way that Fatbloke, who hides behind a stupid pseudonym, cannot reply to those who disagree with his rigid Labour mindset without resorting to pejoratives or diminutives of their names. Most socialist trolls play this puerile little trick (watch) believing that it will belittle and intimidate dissent. They are all about coercion, intimidation and conformity. The enemies of freedom and truth.

lescam

December 13th, 2011 4:01pm Report this comment

A period of silence would be more than welcome, from Ashdown, Cable, Huhne, Heseltine, Clarke, Tonge, Clegg and all the other assorted idiots who still believe that Britain's future lies in MergozyLand.

Whatever Cameron's reasons for his actions, he did do the right thing. I still don't trust him an inch, and wouldn't be surprised if he tries to "sell us down the river" at some future date. But for the moment at least, he can be satisfied that the majority of the British public are behind him, in spite of the efforts of the BBC to convince us otherwise.

Chris

December 13th, 2011 4:19pm Report this comment

For a refreshing blast from Nigel Farage at the E Parliament this morning see:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bOgtEBhV4DE&feature=youtu.be

DavidDP

December 13th, 2011 4:19pm Report this comment

"Dippy Dave @ 3.10"

I'm assuming this is meant to be me, given the time stamp. Hard to know though.

"Trevor is the fastest spinner in the Nelson family even though his brother is a Adam.

He is also head loon of the SpeccyLand tribe.
Tutored by Brillo but not unfortunately in Economics.
He is also a partisan Tory booster."

Hmmm.....no. Is English not your first language? If so, well done at least for trying, but I would advise that posting on a debating-style talkboard such as this one is probably not the best thing for you to do until you can grasp the basics of the language in a comprehensible manner.

Hell, I'd find it difficult to post in a similar fashion on the talkboards of say, a Russian newspaper, so don't feel too bad.

All the best and good luck with your language learning.

starfish

December 13th, 2011 5:23pm Report this comment

Fatbloke is a specialist in drive-by spamming

Ignore is the best advice

Dennis Churchill

December 13th, 2011 5:26pm Report this comment

Latest YouGov poll for the Sun give Conservatives 39%, Labour 40% and the Liberal Democrats 10%. Two polls in a row with the lowest Labour lead from YouGov since September.
Seems the veto was a very good political move.
At minus 19, government approval is also at its most positive since May.
The Loss of influence questions really need to have a “do you care?” clause as there seems to be a political class assumption in it.

Halcyondaze

December 13th, 2011 5:36pm Report this comment

Andrew Fletcher at 09.39am - you're bang on the money there Sir! Hear hear.

Russell

December 13th, 2011 5:53pm Report this comment

Just received a reply from the bbc to my complaint about bias regarding their anti Cameron and pro EU stance.
'Blow me down' The bbc say they have presented a fair, balanced view.!!!!!!!!!

We must get an e-petition demanding MP's debate the bias at the bbc and remove their licence fee.

Dimoto

December 13th, 2011 7:14pm Report this comment

1) It is pointless whining about the BBC, it was Cameron (in his wisdom), who appointed Patten - precisely the (utterly) wrong man at precisely the (utterly) wrong time.

2) Forget stories of sinister calls to Clegg from Brussels.
Clegg is a lonely man (who amongst the knife-in-the-back, opportunist LibDem crew is close to Clegg ?)
Ashdown is his long-term mentor and consigliere, "Nicholas, you have disappointed me ...."

3) It is obvious that Olli Rehn knows very little (and cares less) about the UK.
In that, he is like most of the Eurocracy who see these islands as remote, unEuropean, and marginal.
Farage, the performing seal, just confirms their prejudices.

4) In his speech, Barosso said that he offered a compromise covering most of Cameron's requirements, but it was refused.
What was this compromise ?
Who refused it ?
Is Barosso (ahem) romanticising ?

5) It is evident that there is a big difference between the Commission, who want an ECB bailout so that they can get back to their fun 'n games, and Merkozy.
Most of the wailing, gnashing of teeth, and blood-curdling threats are coming from the Commission apparatchiks, in the middle of an existential crisis.
Merkel, and even Sarkozy have mostly kept schtum.

Paddy

December 13th, 2011 7:43pm Report this comment

Nicholas at 3.58: I don't think Fatbloke will understand those words.

If he lived in America he would make a very good cheer-leader. I could just picture him in a ra ra skirt.

Julian F

December 13th, 2011 7:45pm Report this comment

David Cockerham @1233: "I find it hard to believe though, Julian F, that the explanation can be the wording of that particular article in the draft treaty as you suggest. If it were so, surely the Government would be screaming it from the rooftops and providing it as a line to take to all their supporters who have been so strikingly unable to answer the question on air or in the press."

A minor but important correction: the clause in questions (Art 136) is as it stands in the Lisbon Treaty, which was to be amended, not in a new draft treaty. So it already exists.

I, too, have been surprised at the inept handling of this question, though I suspect explanations about Articles of the Lisbon Treaty would cause many voters to switch off or zone out. The Prime Minister summed it up reasonably well yesterday when he explained that, under the French/German proposals, additional measures designed for the Eurozone could be enforced at the level of the "Twenty-Seven" if enshrined in an (existing) Treaty at that level. I suspect he was referring to Art 136.

In other words, the amendments would introduce arrangements for fiscal limits and review designed for the Eurozone Member States but, where appropriate, certain arrangements could be imposed "at the level of the Twenty-Seven" if the amendments were enacted through the existing treaty. A case in point would be the so-called "Tobin Tax".

So, let's build a scenario. The seventeen Eurozone members agree that a "Tobin Tax" is necessary to protect the Euro (I can't see any logic that would lead them to this conclusion, but we are talking about Europe!). Of course, they realise that a Tobin Tax will only work if imposed on all EU Member States. No problem, they say, Art 136(b) allows for maintenance of consistency throughout the Single Market: in other words, if the seventeen want a Tobin Tax, the other ten are going to get it as well. Not fair, the UK says, we are not members of the Euro so why should we have this tax imposed? To maintain consistency across the Single Market, the seventeen reply, and shut up anyway because you have already signed up to a Treaty amendment that allows us to impose this on you and Qualified Majority Voting (QMV) applies. Check-mate. Shouldn't have signed up to the amendment without safeguards, mate!

Archie

December 13th, 2011 8:09pm Report this comment

Cameron has bags of "previous" so I can't help feeling that something happened in Brussels that we haven't been told. If we had a PM with the necessary minerals he would be clobbering the Beeb as we speak, as it is he's fighting a war on four fronts!

David Cockerham

December 13th, 2011 10:06pm Report this comment

Many thanks for the extra detail Julian F. Fascinating. I still think though that if this is the explanation it beggars belief that No. 10 are not putting out briefing about it. Yes, it wouldn't exactly get the tabloids excited, but it would get prominent coverage in the broadsheets. And I'm still far from clear that the 17 can't shaft us in the basis of the existing Treat of Lisbon article even though we haven't signed up to a Treaty of the 27.

HJ

December 14th, 2011 10:38am Report this comment

I'm not sure about this Clegg business.

I don't think that Fraser is correct to say that he now says that he disagrees with Cameron using the veto.

He is saying (largely for the benefit of his party, I suspect) that he is very disappointed about the whole outcome - which is not the same as saying that Cameron got it wrong or that he disagrees with what he did, just that he wishes that the whole outcome could have been different (which might equally mean that he thinks that Sarkozy got it wrong).

What else was he going to say, given his party's sympathies and given that most people have not a clue about the substance of the disagreement over the proposed treaty changes - they are just taking a pro- or anti- EU stance?

Derek Bennett

December 14th, 2011 11:18am Report this comment

Why is everyone saying Cameron vetoed the EU treaty at the EU summit? Take a look at the facts, there was no summit - this was a Council of Ministers meeting - not a summit which is very different. There was no treaty, just a set of proposals should a treaty be put forward.

Cameron may have given a statement of intent, but other than that he has not done anything. We are still bound to give all EU laws priority because of the 1972 European Communities Act, we are still regulated and governed by the EU and we are still handing over £50 million a day to the EU despite us needing this money ourselves. Please get the fact right, we are still up to our necks in the mire of the EU's making.

Anonymous

December 14th, 2011 11:33am Report this comment

Slapdash proofreading - paper's?!?!

Clanger62

December 14th, 2011 12:18pm Report this comment

I don't worry about the BBC any more. I always watch Press TV or Russia Today for unbiased and objective news covrerage.

Fluffy Ostrich

December 14th, 2011 1:59pm Report this comment

"Paper's", Fraser? Really?

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