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Tuesday, 20th December 2011

Ron Paul now favourite to win in Iowa

Jonathan Jones 5:09pm

Hardly anyone would've predicted it just a few weeks ago, but libertarian congressman Ron Paul now looks most likely to win the Iowa caucuses, with just a fortnight to go. Two new polls show Paul leading Mitt Romney, as Newt Gingrich collapses to third – or even fourth – place. According to Nate Silver's projections (based on the polls and historical results), Paul now has a 52 per cent chance of winning, compared to Romney's 28 per cent chance, Gingrich's 8 per cent and Rick Perry's 7 per cent.

Paul has taken the lead largely thanks to a sharp decline in Gingrich's poll numbers. Nationally, his lead over Romney has dropped from 14 points to just 2 in less than two weeks, according to Gallup. In Iowa, he's fallen from 22 per cent (and the lead) last week to 14 per cent (third place) this week, according to PPP, and even more dramatically – from first on 27 per cent to fourth on 13 per cent – according to InsiderAdvantage. Nate Silver's projections now have him roughly tying Perry for third on caucus day. If Gingrich loses out to Perry and comes fourth, it would likely end his chances of the nomination. Meanwhile, a decent third place (or better) for Perry may allow the Texas Governor to claim something of a 'Comeback Kid' label, as Bill Clinton's second place in New Hampshire did in 1992.

While Romney will of course be hoping for victory in Iowa (he would almost certainly follow it up with a win in New Hampshire and therefore have the nomination within reach), he would probably not be too unhappy to see Paul win. Paul's strength in Iowa is not matched nationally – he's polling at around 12 per cent even after a small bump – and he's unlikely to be Romney's main challenger for the nomination. Whereas Gingrich could follow up a win in Iowa with victories in South Carolina and Florida, Paul would be much less likely to do so. This means that a strong New Hampshire win should be enough for Romney to neutralise Paul, just as McCain did to Huckabee in 2008.

But will Paul actually turn these poll leads into victory in Iowa? It seems his chances may largely rely on getting non-Republicans – Democrats and Independents – to turn out for him. Neil Stevens notes that Paul's lead in the PPP poll is largely due to his strength among non-Republicans, and suggests that PPP has over-sampled them. On the face of it, this looks to be the case: non-Republicans made up 14 per cent of 2008 caucus-goers, but make up 25 per cent of PPP's respondents. However, as PPP's Tom Jensen points out in response, in 2008 Iowans had to choose between voting in the Republican caucus and the hotly-contested Democratic one, whereas this time 'all the action is on the Republican side'. Indeed, around 23 per cent of voters in the 2008 Democratic caucus were non-Democrats, so PPP's assumptions do not seem wildly fantastic. However, one has to wonder whether Ron Paul would be able to spark as much enthusiasm among Independents as Barack Obama did last time.

Filed under: GOP (309 more articles) , Iowa (9 more articles) , Mitt Romney (58 more articles) , Newt Gingrich (47 more articles) , Polls (254 more articles) , Primaries (40 more articles) , Republicans (98 more articles) , Rick Perry (47 more articles) , Ron Paul (27 more articles) , US politics (285 more articles)

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Comments Post comment

Sean O'Jare

December 20th, 2011 5:23pm Report this comment

If Paul wins the presidency we can look forward to a very different and very much better USA. Bring it on!

Koakona

December 20th, 2011 5:23pm Report this comment

Ron Paul is the only candidate who sparks any interest for me, if he fails in America I would like to see him over here. I do not care if he is a yank he speaks bags and bags of sense.

James

December 20th, 2011 5:28pm Report this comment

Best Christmas present... EVER!

Oli Dobbs

December 20th, 2011 5:37pm Report this comment

I think you've got you're facts wrong here. Ron Paul is actually winning in the New Hampshire and South Carolina polls at the moment...

Jackson Baer

December 20th, 2011 5:43pm Report this comment

Ron Paul will win Iowa and then either win New Hampshire or come in a very close second to Romney. Either way, he has a legitimate chance to win the Republican nomination. What will the Republicans do? They can’t stand Paul because of his foreign policy.

RON PAUL 2012

http://www.whatthehellbook.com/the-book/

wrinkled weasel

December 20th, 2011 5:45pm Report this comment

With two candidates hogging two first names and another affecting to be a member of the Salamandridae, and another a cross between some woolen gloves and a some Southern England bog country I cannot help but suspect that the GOP is not taking this seriously.

Better go for the present incumbent's ploy of adopting a faux Irish surname and a first name that cannot be shortened to one overly familiar syllable.

David Lindsay

December 20th, 2011 6:01pm Report this comment

It now looks quite possible that Iowa really is going to pick that pro-life gynaecologist and obstetrician, Ron Paul, with his opposition to bailouts, to wars, and to the erosion of constitutional checks and balances. Making that the Republican platform for Obama to match and exceed. Bring it on.

With no Democratic contest this year, everyone who believes in any one or more of those causes should be registered as a Republican in this cycle, in order to vote for Paul and force Obama fully into line with those views. By no means only in Iowa. But starting there.

Heartless P.

December 20th, 2011 6:05pm Report this comment

He seems to be authentic, - genuine, honest, with fine credentials - and if so, has little hope of success, - however much some of us may wish him to take Office.

Deb

December 20th, 2011 6:40pm Report this comment

Well, if I were a gambling person, I wouldn't get my information from the main stream media! How many times do they have to be totally wrong before everyone understands how little they know? You should practice writing "President Paul!"

Vulture

December 20th, 2011 6:44pm Report this comment

I was wondering who that pic reminded me of: then it came to me. Sir Iam McKellan in about a decade.

Paul is way, way, way too old.

His foreign policy seems to consist of trading in the Stars and Stripes for a white flag.

However appallingly it has been used in the opening years of this century, American power is our only defence against Muslim madness and the continuing totalitarian threats from China and Russia.

And however badly the state has spent, the answer is not to do away witbh it entirely.

Having said that, I can see why the old fella is riding high on his zimmer frame. The rest of the GoP field is woeful to the point of idiocy. Obama will coast home at this rate. God help us all.

escapedRoger

December 20th, 2011 6:46pm Report this comment

Dr.Ron Paul makes sense, but he could never get to the White House, the military industrial complex would have him shot first.Perhaps his son may run one day.

TGF UKIP

December 20th, 2011 6:52pm Report this comment

Yeah, and based on similarly timed polls, our resident LibDem was probably rock certain that his party were going to win upwards of a hundred seats in May 2010.

ROB SHEFFIELD

December 20th, 2011 6:53pm Report this comment

He'll never win the GOP nomination- he's a kook who does not think Iran is a threat and believes that of you don't have medical insurance "your mates and charities will pay your 50,000 dollar treatment costs rather than let you die”!

He only resonates with a certain type of faux-intellectual (mainly male; mainly urban; mainly in 30's and 40's) who seem to think using the word 'libertarian' conveys on them some kind of trendy kudos.

However an utterly impractical platform for running a large 21st century economy and a modern state. Obama would beat him by 10 points tomorrow let alone after beating him up over a 6 month campaign.

This time though he might run as a third party candidate if he fails (again) to get the nomination. As might Palin (but not Nader).

Rhoda Klapp

December 20th, 2011 7:00pm Report this comment

I observe that it only needs Jonathan Jones to mention a candidate as a contender for that candidate to tumble from the ratings/ And now it has got to Ron Paul. I expect him to drop like a rock.

Old Slaughter

December 20th, 2011 7:05pm Report this comment

His childish and ideological foreign policy would be catastrophic.

norman

December 20th, 2011 7:08pm Report this comment

I wish we had someone comparable to Dr No here in the UK rather than the nodding donkey lobby fodder we are currently blessed with.

theydontknowhat

December 20th, 2011 7:27pm Report this comment

It would be fantastic but it won't happen because he doesn't pander to the powerbase in the US. If the media can't finish him off then a convenient medical problem will.

Augustus

December 20th, 2011 8:10pm Report this comment

Ron Paul is largely inconsequential.

victor jara 67

December 20th, 2011 8:39pm Report this comment

Ron Paul AIPAC and Bibi's nightmare. watch the Israel lobby go into overdrive.

Rob

December 20th, 2011 8:50pm Report this comment

Only Dr Paul can save America from the western European social economic model/catastrophe that is Keynesian economics.

David Lindsay

December 20th, 2011 9:53pm Report this comment

Good to see the usual suspects having kittens.

No, of course Iran is not a threat to America. Or to Britain, for that matter. Never mind blather about imaginary threats from Russia, or China, or even, for pity's sake, North Korea.

Paul is patriotic for America the real place, not for some America as an idea propagated by the likes of Christopher Hitchens.

The nomination of Paul might at last prompt Obama to say these self-evident things out loud, dispensing with the Clintons and their entourage in the process. Bring it on.

zipp

December 20th, 2011 11:10pm Report this comment

You war-mongerers seem to think that Ron Paul wants to do away with the military - he doesn't. What he wants to do is turn us from policemen into a friendly, DEFENSIVE nation with freedoms ranging from personal to economic. I don't understand how peace and freedom aren't popular ideas and how you could be so stupid as to not see the problems with our current budget and endless wars.

JT

December 20th, 2011 11:11pm Report this comment

Ron Paul , last chance this nation has, whether the neoconned zionists like it or not :)

Terry

December 20th, 2011 11:25pm Report this comment

i want to see this man presidenst far to long has there been errosion of rights and the falre of common sense

Patrick

December 20th, 2011 11:28pm Report this comment

Whoever posted he only resonates with male 30-40 somethings is certainly out of touch with their knowledge on the GOP primary.

What a lot of people in our country (USA) fail to recognize with Ron Paul is that he will not make these 'loony' changes overnight. First, you need congressional approval for these changes, and second, he's not that dumb to make radical black/white changes without adjustment periods to ensure the smooth transition to his policies. So, yes, he did allude to the fact that he would like a sick man who's dying to receive charity. But this is after stripping down the current insurance and medical systems we have in place to cheapen the cost of healthcare.

A lot of Democrats prefer to bash Ron Paul in this manner when they fully understand, or conveniently forget, how our congress is necessary to approve these changes. It's their knee-jerk reaction to their underlying fear of a serious threat to Obama. They will laugh it off like it's no big deal, but they are easy to read, like a primary school's book.

One thing that is interesting is the topic of corruption in Washington DC. Ron Paul does not receive funding for his campaigns from corporate lobbyists. Guess who does? Everyone else, that's right. Our elected officials have changed their mindsets over the past century from representing the public opinion to making sure they are reelected. They need funding from corporate lobbyists and will repay the favors once they are in office. It's disgusting and has destroyed our country. Obama received funding from Wall St. I wonder why he never cracked down on those regulations and gave ridiculous bailouts?

What it comes down to is a vote on corruption. Do you want it? Then vote against Ron Paul. If you oppose it, then vote for him.

Paulie

December 21st, 2011 12:16am Report this comment

Considering he came second in the Ames Straw Poll a few months back and was only 200 odd votes from winning the thing, I don't see how this is unexpected? Paul was always going to finish top 2 or 3 in Iowa

Frank P

December 21st, 2011 12:59am Report this comment

Augustus
December 20th, 2011 8:10pm

"Ron Paul is largely inconsequential".

Quite agree; he has a dewdrops chances in Hades. Romney is a shoo in for the GOP. Whether that is a good thing remains to be seen. I fear another four years of O. Particularly in view of what is happening in The House at the moment.

Jas Dal

December 21st, 2011 3:24am Report this comment

The truth will set you free. The man who speaks the truth will be attacked. The messenger is here and the people are responding to the truth. And now the lies begin, the character-assassination. Not this time.

This time the people are waking up. This time their numbers are growing and approaching the tipping point. This time the desperate corporate fear-mongerers of the US press will be overcome by the truth.

And the truth will set the US free.

porkbelly

December 21st, 2011 3:42am Report this comment

Ron Paul is an anti-Semite crank and conspiracy theorist with no more chance of winning the Republican nomination than Hugo Chavez. Don't waste our time with this sort of nonsense.

Jeff B.

December 21st, 2011 8:21am Report this comment

Porkbelly.... or whatever your name is... you are dead wrong. If you were here, talking to American citizens, not reading conglomerate media, you would see that a vast majority of Americans want Ron Paul. Our polling systems take into account people with land lines. Cell phones are largely on the do not call list. 60% of all Americans under the age of 35 no longer have land lines. Ron Paul derives more than half of his support from those under the age of 30. These facts are readily available on the web. I suggest you begin doing research like a good red coat or perhaps keep your political idiocies to your own political system.

Dogzzz

December 21st, 2011 8:30am Report this comment

Ron Paul is the only candidate who is consistent, honest, has a multi-decade long record of voting with the constitution and never against it. He does not accept money from corporations or vested interests. He is not anti-Semitic at all, in fact he is a Zionist and as a true Zionist believes that Israel should exist and stand on it's own two feet, self reliant and independent.

The reason the media and the GOP hierarchy do not like him is because he is opposed to corporatism and corporate welfare.

Ron Paul is the only candidate in the race who predicted the crash and the consequences of it, and he is the only one with a solution that is not "Let's borrow our way out of debt, only so slowly we can pretend that borrowing is coming down"

He is the only candidate who is opposed to war for war's sake, wants to stop bullying the world, but increase trade and friendship with all other countries.

I wish we had a 'Ron Paul' in this country.

Mike

December 21st, 2011 1:39pm Report this comment

I am convinced that Ron Paul will save the world. Greetings from Pittsburgh, PA

Tyler Thulin

December 21st, 2011 5:54pm Report this comment

No, one really doesn't have to wonder. Comparing Ron Paul to Obama is like comparing reality to Hollywood. Ron Paul actually has integrity, and you can be certain that when you vote for him, you will get what you expect from him. He's never compromised his beliefs to make himself more popular, and his voting record proves that. He also doesn't have to have other people write his speeches or read a tele-prompt in order to sound intelligent, and he's a real MD. Don't listen to the RNC or the media! Vote for Ron Paul and reclaim the Republican party!

Triumph

December 21st, 2011 7:21pm Report this comment

If this crank gets in America may find trouble brewing outside its closed doors 1930's style.

Muso254

December 21st, 2011 7:24pm Report this comment

Ron Paul is honoured to serve his country. His ilk are in very short supply across western politics. He would make a fine President.

daniel maris

December 21st, 2011 10:44pm Report this comment

I knew Mr. Magoo would one day make his mark in politics...

JP

December 22nd, 2011 2:47pm Report this comment

I truly hope America votes in Ron Paul.. all the way to the top. And reading the comments on nearly every news story, it looks like he is going to do it.

The polls for the other states were taken ages ago, with all the Ron Paul hype going on, I'm guessing those polls have gone up in Pauls favour.

I think the Americans can actually pull this off. Bless them, they are teetering on hell.

Adrian Peirson

December 24th, 2011 2:35am Report this comment

President Ron Paul,
if you want to know what he stands for, just go to youtube and click on a few videos.

Mike (england)

December 25th, 2011 7:09pm Report this comment

I really hope that Dr. Paul can win this time, Obviously i dont support all his polices but i do firmly belive that the USA will be a much better country when it is run once again by its people instead of bankers, the movie and music industries and isreal, the bonus of seeing the end of dmca, protectip, sopa and the "patriot" act would be a wonderful sign of America once again becoming the land of the free and more importantly would see an end to America interfering with the laws and affairs of other countries.

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