The odds on ministers losing their seats

Andrew Zalotocky

It's now possible to imagine some plausible scenarios in which Labour could lose far more than just the next election. For example, imagine if:

(1) Brown doesn't step down before the general election and Labour MPs don't force him out, if only because they have no confidence in any of the alternatives.

(2) The economy does not improve before the election and the Conservatives do not make any major mistakes.

(3) The unions force Labour to include their wish-list in its manifesto, as the price of saving the party from insolvency.

(4) The Lib Dems aggressively target Labour seats, portraying themselves as the only credible opposition to the Conservatives.

(5) Labour's remaining supporters are too demoralised to mount an effective election campaign.

(6) The Conservatives win the election, with Labour finishing third behind the Lib Dems. Cameron and Clegg hail a new era. Brown finally resigns as Labour leader.

(7) Old Labour leftists backed by the unions defeat the remaining centrists in the struggle to control the party's future direction.

(8) Most of the centrists leave to form a new SDP, and Labour returns to its roots as a socialist party dominated by the trade unions.

Mike, Brighton

Which one will provide the "Portillo Moment" of the 2010 election.
I'm thinking Alistair Darling - the sitting Chancellor (assuming he hasn't been sacked). Delicious!
Ruth Kelly, John Hutton and Jacqui Smith look very vulnerable. Maybe even Straw and Denham.
A night of many champagne bottles popping awaits all being well!

Mike, Brighton

Andrew Zalotocky, your scenario is quite possible except (6). It is again possible that the LibDums will overtake Labour as % share of the vote. But the electoral system is so biased against them and pro-Labour that it is virtually impossible for the LibDums to have more MPs than Labour, so Labour will still be the Opposition.

Elf

Why not Gordon? Think Balfour 1906.

DW

The greatest pleasure, or Portillo moment, for me would be to see Brown lose his own seat. I wonder how secure he really is...after all the seat next door went, albeit it in a by election. And sometimes fact is stranger than fiction. I live in hope. A bit surprised the odds are 500-1 - thought they'd be a bit lower than that.

TGF UKIP

This is a bit of a swizz. You are clearly being used by Wm Hill's PR people to give them some free publicity.

I wanted to place some bets so I've just been looking exhaustively through their many websites and none currently provide political betting.

Mind you Ladbrokes, with whom I already have an account, are very little better. For months the only political bets they've been offering are on the US Presidential Election.

My £100 is burning a hole in my pocket so any Coffee Housers have any suggestions on which bookie I should give my money to?

James Forsyth

TGF, We actually asked Hills for the odds as we thought they'd be interesting so their site might not be up-to-date. As ever, James

TGF UKIP

Thanks for the response, James, much appreciated. I'll keep checking their sites.

Max Kaye

I'd put a tenner on Brown losing his seat: strange things happen to accursed people.

Tiberius

Be "up for Blears".

It will be a life-changing experience.

TGF UKIP

James, it's not a task for anyone with a heart condition but after spending well over three quarters of an hour on the Hills website and on the telephone I've managed to open an account and place my bets at a considerable cost to my blood pressure.

These odds are not, however, in their systems and, I was informed, political bets are normally only taken in office hours.

In the end I think they only took my bets because I was so hacked off with all the frigging about.

There was, however, an amusing side note which indicates just how little most people care or are even aware of politics or anything to do with politics. The young man at the call centre, and his team leader, were very unclear as to the meaning of the phrase "losing his seat." He was also unaware that any of these people were Cabinet Ministers (I don't even think he knew what a Cabinet Minister was) and asked the priceless question "are these people Labour or Tories or a mixture.)

In the end, though, I consider my £100 to have been well invested and I may well have another nibble at these odds tomorrow.

DW

TGF - Do tell! What are your bets?

TGF UKIP

DW, no big secret - £20 each on Darling, Straw, Denham, Purnell and Hoon. Wheat in the bin!

JimBob

The NHS thing about patients being refused care could really blow up so I think Johnson is a good flutter at 60-1

Nicholas

Straw is worth a punt. Like to see him out of politics and out of my life.

Tiberius

I think, TGF, that should your ship come in, we should see some acknowledgement from you that never, in the field of electoral conflict, was so much owed by so many punters to one Tory leader.

Praguetory

I think you have stumbled on some value.

Ed Balls 66 - 1. A widely disliked Labourite being parachuted into a solid lower-middle class seat. I'd put money on at 5 to 1

Ellwood

Ed Balls has to be favourite to be the next Portillo.

Labour finished 4th in his seat on May 1st!

occasional ranter

Ed Balls is a more than worthy successor to Portillo. No-one has been more sheltered by Brown, and no-one would be more shocked when the voters finally bite him hard.

Minekiller

It will be rough for Balls being at home washing the dishes while Yvette goes to erhem...'work'as one of the about 65-80 Labour MPs in opposition (if that) after the next election.

Given the incompetence of these people and a review of the CVs, I can't see them being able to get real jobs.

My money is on..among others, Kelly, Balls, Straw and Smith