What didn't happen in 2011
Daniel Korski 3:29pm
In the run-up to every New Year, newspapers and the blogosphere are full of articles
about what happened in the year just gone. 2011 was a particularly eventful year so there will be much to pick from. But what about the things that did not happen, though they were widely expected?
Here are five things that did not take place — though, as the year unfolded, many people would have bet on their occurrence:
1) Algeria's revolution. As one North African dictator after another fell to pro-democracy protesters, everyone expected Algeria to be next. But it wasn't. there are many reasons for this, as Hakeem Debouche and Susi Denison argue in this new report; including the country’s oil wealth, people’s fear of a civil war, and that fact that the Algerian regime is less repressive than those in Tunisia and Egypt.
2) Outright failure in Durban. After the collapse of the Copenhagen climate negotiations, everyone expected any future talks to fail in the same way, with countries disagreeing about how to address climate change. But the 17th meeting since the 1992 talks in Rio de Janeiro actually ended with some sort of agreement. You can argue about how significant it all is, but, on paper at least, there are commitments to draw up a legal framework for climate action by 2015, as well as measures such as a new Green Climate Fund.
3) The orderly return of President Putin. A year ago, most observers expected the Russian prime minster to prepare the ground for a third presidential term by emerging triumphant from the Russian parliamentary elections. But it did not turn out that way, as the ruling party, United Russia, struggled to capture 50 per cent of the vote in a poll widely seen as rigged. Riots are now a weekly occurrence in a state where everyone assumed the population was too scared, after the post-revolutionary 1990s, to protest.
4) The collapse of the Euro. This may, of course, still happen in 2012. But only three months ago — in the face of general political disagreement and ECB inaction — it looked like the Euro had, in the words of George Osborne, only weeks left. And yet it has staggered on.
5) The West wouldn't attack a Muslim country again. Before this year most people — analysts, officials and officers alike — were adamant that West would shy away from military action in a Muslim country, given the experience of Iraq and Afghanistan. But then, facing the risk of mass atrocities, Britain and France led a NATO alliance in support of the Libyan rebels.
There are other things that did not happen in 2011, despite being expected by some: an Israeli strike on Iran; the success of the liberals in Egypt; civil war in Pakistan; German support for Eurobonds, etc, etc. Closer to home, the Coalition did not collapse, either over the AV referendum or Europe. But what are your top non-events?
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and I'll go to bed at noon
December 27th, 2011 4:38pm Report this commentSo... your fifth "thing that didn't happen" is "something not happening". That's a bit too metaphysical for me. Were you stuck at four?
Jupiter
December 27th, 2011 4:47pm Report this commentKorski didn't write a sensible blogpost.
Andy Carpark
December 27th, 2011 4:53pm Report this commentMystic Daniel's non-predictions for 2012
1. Earth to land on moon
2. Nick Clegg to win X-Factor
3. Albania to declare war on China
4. David Cameron to make a stand
5. Anna Nicole Smith become head of the IMF
Austin Barry
December 27th, 2011 5:23pm Report this commentFraser to comment on Neathergate. Perhaps, given the London riots and yesterday's Oxford Street example of vibrant diversity, his previous 'It's a Small World (after all)" complacency is being reconsidered and we can expect a robust article in 2012.
Herbert Thornton
December 27th, 2011 7:04pm Report this comment"United Russia, struggled to capture 50 per cent of the vote in a poll widely seen as rigged."
"Widely seen"? That really means "seen by the bloody-minded leftists who infest so much of British life." They have never forgiven the Russians for decisively rejecting Marxism.
If comparisons are to be made between British and Russian leadership it is a great mistake to cling on to the idea that Cameron, Clegg and Milliband - and their parties - are shining examples of good and wise government.
Putin is certainly, a far more straightforward, decent, honest - and patriotic - man than Cameron.
Cynic
December 27th, 2011 7:47pm Report this commentMy top non-events? Cameron not keeping his promises (other than the one that he would be the heir to Blair). Unsurprising, but bitterly disappointing.
Chris
December 28th, 2011 11:22am Report this commentHerbert Thornton, check in to The Priory. It's for your own good.
Karen
December 28th, 2011 5:06pm Report this commentNice twist to traditional inevitable and boring journalist genre of "what happened the last 12 months".
Herbert Thornton
December 29th, 2011 1:18am Report this commentSome people are asserting that Putin should hold talks with the "opposition".
The Russian "opposition" has much in common with the "occupiers" - as they've been called - who have been camping outside St Paul's.
Putin has very sensibly said that discussions with the opposition would be a waste of time. He is of course quite right. When opposition consists mainly of a ragtag and bobtail collection of disgruntled layabouts, anarchists, Marxists, religious zealots and other evil mischief makers, discussion with them is indeed a waste of time.
It will be in Russia's best interest if Putin is re-elected. It will also be in the best interests of the rest of the world. There are obviously several reasons for this. One of the most important is that Russia under Putin will remain a resolute bulwark against the increasingly bold jihadist frenzy for holy war that is currently simmering in the Islamic world.
colin
December 29th, 2011 7:12am Report this commentDo you seriously believe that the intervention of Britain,France(and the USA)in Libya was was to support a democratic uprising and to prevent mass murder? I cannot believe you are so ill-informed.
RichardH
December 29th, 2011 11:34am Report this commentDemocracy didn't appear in Iraq, despite its population spending 9 years being told at gunpoint it was what they really wanted.
And I'll make the first predictions now for what didn't happen in 2012. Democracy didn't appear by magic in Afghanistan, Libya, Egypt or anywhere else where completely incompatible tribes were previously kept in check with a rod of iron by strong, secular, not western liberal hopey changey-approved rulers.
It's time we realised that democracy works in very few places. It scarcely works here.
Tom Burroughes
December 29th, 2011 3:13pm Report this commentVincent Cable did not resign/get sacked
Cameron did not cave in to the EU ambush
Obama's incompetent attorney general did not resign
Merkel did not support QE by the ECB
China did not fully float its currency
The IPCC did not admit it is wrong on agw
South Africa did not deteriorate; Mugabe did not get kicked out
The BRIC countries did not lose momentum
And the England cricket team did not rest on its laurels
DavidCage
December 30th, 2011 4:40pm Report this commentRegarding any legal framework for climate change legislation; since 2015 will be after the 100 months to doomsday tipping point I assume this will be fully taken into account before signing any commitments to financial support for climate change action.
Remember that tipping point is the glib media speak for positive feedback equation which has a clear cut precursor to this point with a rapid temperature increases even in the presence of no further Co2 increases.
In the presence of the CO2 increases we are actually seeing and the lack of temperatures to match only climate scientists would fail to regard the theory as junk to be ditched as quietly and with as little embarrassment as is possible in the circumstances.
One should not forget that an entire generation has now been recruited selectively with this belief when deciding on the value of peer review.
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