Will Israel bomb a near-nuclear Iran in 2012?

Mirtha Tidville

The Israelis will weigh everything carefully and above all assess the actual threat.After that they will take whatever action is needed to protect the state of Israel and its people whatever the rest of the world may think. Fortune favours the brave.

Forlornehope

And what would the outcome of such a strike actually be? Perhaps it would delay and Iranian bomb by a year or two; it might also delay real reform in Iran by a couple of decades. What would Iran do in retaliation, close Hormuz, fire off long range rockets at Israel (the Israelis had better be confident that "Iron Dome" really works)? There are a lot of costs there and very little on the benefit side and whatever Bibi is, he's no testosterone filled nutter.

strapworld

Do not rule out the Chinese moving firt.

Firt

And why should the Chinese move me?

Julian F

strapworld: You raise an interesting point. Could 2012 see the emergence of a US-Israel-Russia-China axis against Islamic fundamentalism, I wonder? The world is moving in something like this general direction...

Rani

why should we bother to attack Iran? they have erected constructions of conventional missiles around Israel that would exterminate it in a matter of days, they have no need for the more vulgar nuclear bomb which is more likely to demolish Islamic (and Shia) monuments in the Holy Land. even if Kahana would rise from the dead and decides to nuclear bomb Iran for no apparent reason they wouldn't need to resort to nuclear weapons. sorry guys the nuclear Iranian bomb is not for us…

Rani

Forlornehope@ Iron Dome (which does work) is designated to work against short range missiles and mortar shells, for the long term heavy stuff Israel has developed The Arrow Missiles which were only tried out virtually.

Patriccia Shaw

The balance of power dictates that Iran needs the Bomb. Obama understands that and will block any thoughts of Netanyahu to target the Persians. Yesterday you lauded the Islamist. The fact that all around Israel Islamists are in the ascendency means that the Israelites will not dare provoke. Hamas and Hezbollah are ready with their rockets and the Egyptian military are itching to give themselves a cause to take over domestically.

In short Daniel you are wide of the mark today

Julian F

Patriccia Shaw: The history of Israel from its inception illustrates that the Israelis are not easily intimidated and are quite prepared to act unilaterally. I don't think they'll be waiting for Obama to endorse the military plans that may be deemed necessary for their survival. In any case, I'm not sure your point about the balance of power would resonate in Washington.

starfish

Julian F - I agree

Mr Korski

1. Israel has a far better understanding of the scope and progress of Irabian nuclear amibitions than certainly you, and probably most other nations, have

2. Israel has proven that in defending against an existential threat, she will not wait until 'just after the last possible moment', which seems to be most western governments' practice

3. No nation has a veto on this - and why should they unless they are prepared to guarantee her security? Would you trust Obama to do so?

4. Low level disruption is probably all that is necessary at the moment

Hexhamgeezer

DK. You are making the assumption that this time the Israelis intend to do a return trip. This time it is worth sacrificing a plane or two with the pilots being picked up and returned. I don't doubt that arrangements have already been made.

Verity

Firt - Genuine LoL.

Austin Barry

If Iran turns to glass, who cares?

victor jara 67

The existential threat narrative is a myth. It is all about the balance of power. If Iran gets a weapon the balances of power fundementally shifts away from Pax Americana. This cannot be allowed as it would eventually lead Israel to make concessions on territory to the Palestinians and threatens their military domination of the region.

Sure Iran going Nuclear is destablising among the Sunni Arab states but why can't the west stand up to Israel and get them to put their undeclared nuclear warheads on the negotiating table. There is no evidence that mutually Assured destruction does not apply to the Mullahs as it does with North Korea etc. Why not no nukes at all in the M East?
As I am sure the zionists will quote the MEMRI interpretation from 2005 (Wipe Israel of the map) quote. Instead of him predicting the "zionist entity" will dissapear from the pages of history much like the old Soviet Union. Somewhat different.
MEMRI is not a neutral body . It is run by ex Mossad and translates only the most extreme quotes from arabic and Farsi but the gullable US public swallow the propoganda from the warmongers among their political elite much like Saddam, Iraq and WMD. The US is in decline and there is no mood for war apart from the Israeli first neo-cons. Under Obama at least Israel will not get US backing for a strike.

Noa.

So, in short, possible eventualities may result in the cancellation of my planned rail journey to Aleppo and Tehran.

Thanks for the heads up. I'll pack more Kevlar, Factor 5000 sun block and re-check the A BTA and raise the life cover premium level.

AY

Americans are out of Iraq, Gilad Shalit is repatriated, all three layers of anti-missile defense are in operation in Israel, there is confusion in Hamas and Hezbolla because of Syrian disorder, and new round of effecive sanctions on Iranian oil industry is introduced.
That is very convenient time to do crucial corrections.
At least one should expect preventive activity of IDF in Gaza/West Bank, and probably in Lebanon/parts of Syria.
Iranian ballisitc missile and navy bases might also be hit, but maybe not (only) by Israel. There won't be chance to lose any pilots or soldiers, anyway. Technology is quite ripe to raze whole (Iranian, etc.) long-range capabilities remotely, anonymously, and in minutes. One of the incentive to act BTW - to test the technology.

Oh and certainly the alliance of the West, Israel, Russia and Japan/South Korea/China against the barbarian rest, is very natural thing. For which Iran is likely to be the first test case.

Doctor Wankenstein

I hope Israel or the USA or both backed with UK intelligence do bomb Iran because I can't wait to see it on the tele.

anyfool

Doctor Wankenstein
Dont take all of the sofa move over a bit

anyfool

Doctor Wankenstein
Do you think they could set it to music, "1812 overture will do" or make it the opening ceremony for the London Drug Runners Festival this summer

Stu

Pity Iran and blame Israel, can't quite work that one out Daniel. Israeli pilots destroying the capabilty of a rogue muslim state to deploy or sell weapons of mass desruction. I will cheer the Israelis on. In fact we should back them with our own military in the event of an attack.

paulg

The Iranians are all talk its the way the Farsi language comes across in English.

The Persians havnt invaded anyone for 2000 yrs,whilst the bad lads who have kicked their door in over the centuries are not anyone you would want to invite to a party.No wonder they have an aversion to war.

With a hydra cut off its heads and you'll be just left with a rump.

victor jara 67

In addition to my last post Obama dispatched Leon Panatta to Jerusalem last month to seek assurance from Bibi that Israel would not attack Iran unilaterly. He did not get it. Despite this it is too risky for Israel to attack on its own.

john mackie

The Iranian government is moving closer to having the requisite capabilities, and can reasonably be expected to take the final steps towards nuclearisation.
_________________________________

Got any evidence for that?
(didn't think do).

bullshit

TomTom

"The Iranian government is moving closer to having the requisite capabilities, and can reasonably be expected to take the final steps towards nuclearisation. "

Just why did The Shah stop his nuclear programme ? And South Korea ? And South Africa ? And Brazil and Argentina ?

daniel maris

One thing to watch out for if Iran finally tests its nuclear weapon - the Ayatollah has declared in a Fatwa such weapons to be illegitimate.

From Wikipedia:

"On ideological grounds, a public and categorical religious decree (fatwa) against the development, production, stockpiling and use of nuclear weapons has been issued by the supreme leader of the Islamic Republic Ali Khamenei along with other clerics"

So really this is a very clear demonstration of Taqiyyah: conscious deception of your enemies.

Noa.

Daniel Maris @ 6.38pm

Thank you for that information and insight.

Verity

Daniel Maris - Precisely. Taqqya and kitman. And anyone who would believe a word out uttered by an ayatollah's is either complicit or a dangerous moron.

I somehow intuit that David Cameron will be ostentatiously putting his faith in the ayatollah's words.

Lee Broad

Recently Strategic Affairs Minister Moshe Yaalon, in some very direct language, stated that Iran must choose between having a nuclear bomb and survival. He might have been reacting to a corollary dilemma: whether Israel allows Iran to have a bomb or Israel survives. Iran's avowed foreign policy is to wipe Israel off the map. With nuclear weapons and a large conventional army to complement the armed forces of the original five Arab countries that invaded Israel in 1948, Iran would represent the tipping point militarily. My novel, The Masada Protocol, envisions such a scenario and I (like most Israelis, I presume) would prefer for it to remain fictional.
Lee Broad
Author, The Masada Protocol

John Edwards

I am in favour of taking action against Iran providing that exactly the same action is taken to remove Israel's stockpile of nuclear weapons

Archie

In bygone days,I always thought that Israel was competent, not to say infallible; but Mossad has screwed up substantially recently, so one wonders about the outcome of any healthy skirmish....................and Firt, the Chinese appear to be buying everything in sight these days, so you might be an obvious choice!