Iowa's losers
Jonathan Jones 1:30pm
Back in September, Rick Perry was the betting favourite to win both the Iowa caucus and the Republican nomination. Instead, he scored just 10 per cent of the vote last night, leaving him down in
fifth place. This disappointing result may well be the final nail in the coffin of Perry's campaign, and last night he certainly sounded like a candidate at the end of the line:
Although Perry's debate performances have been poor, they have provided some of the most entertaining moments of the race so far, whether goading Mitt Romney on illegal immigrants or forgetting which agencies he wants to abolish.'With the voters' decision tonight in Iowa, I've decided to return to Texas, assess the results of tonight's caucus, determine whether there is a path forward for myself in this race... With a little prayer and a little reflection, I'm going to decide the best path forward.'
Michele Bachmann also had a disastrous night, finishing last of the six candidates contesting Iowa. Bachmann says she'll carry on, but in reality her hopes were pinned on a strong showing in Iowa and she fell well short. Expect her to stay in for the next few debates but drop out after the South Carolina primary on 21 January.
If and when these candidates drop out, it'll help Santorum as the new 'Anyone but Romney' candidate. But he's on just 6 per cent in the national polls and currently lacks the money and organisation to mount a serious challenge to Romney. He will get a bump from these results, and can expect to pick up many of Bachmann, Perry and Gingrich's supporters, but it's unlikely to be enough for him to keep up with Romney through the early primaries. And, as James says, he'll now be subject to the same level of scrutiny that burst the Cain and Gingrich bubbles.
Incredibly, Romney now looks like the presumptive nominee despite having the support of just one-in-four Republicans. He already looks certain to win the New Hampshire primary next week, and is set to receive an extra boost today in the form of an endorsement from 2008 nominee John McCain.
Update: It seems Michele Bachmann might not make it to South Carolina after all. She's called a press conference for this afternoon, and the National Journal quotes a source saying that she 'doesn’t see a way forward in her campaign for the
GOP nomination for president'.
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AlanL
January 4th, 2012 2:01pm Report this commentPsephological point:
You cannot assert that Romney has the support of just one in four Republicans, as that isn't what was being asked. Iowans were saying which ONE they supported MOST.
If voters could vote for as many as they supported (in some form), then we would indeed know how many would support him.
Many of those who preferred someone else may be happy to support him - and I bet quite a few would vote for him in the General Election.
Vulture
January 4th, 2012 2:03pm Report this commentGood ole John McCain : he knows a loser when he sees one...after all, he beat Romney in 2008, then went on to lose to Barry O. in the final.
So how come the man McCain beat then has a hope in hell of beating Barry now?
Answer: he hasn't. The GOP have shot themselves in the head by picking the Mor(m)on that nobody wants.
Bill Rees
January 4th, 2012 3:10pm Report this commentVulture, McCain fought a terrible campaign.
For all his faults, I don't think Romney will. And Obama isn't as strong a candidate in 2012 as he was in 2008.
Tariq
January 4th, 2012 3:36pm Report this commentLast year senator Kay Bailey Hutchinson challenged Perry for the Texas gubernatorial nomination. She lost, but I wonder if that challenge, in which she was endorsed by George H.W. Bush, Dick Cheney and other prominent Republicans, fatally weakened Perry in this fight?
Percy
January 4th, 2012 3:44pm Report this commentHow many more posts do the Coffee House bloggers think we're going to need on this. We've had four already, surely a few more wouldn't go amiss?
Gerry Hassan
January 4th, 2012 3:55pm Report this commentI know The Spectator loves the US or their version of a stereotype: the Reaganite, go-getting, gun hussling state hating good ol' US minus liberals and pinkos.
But four out of five articles in one day on the Republican Iowa caucas. Kind of revealing guys of how you see the world. Maybe have a think about that and how it portrays you to everyone else.
Sean O'Hare
January 4th, 2012 4:04pm Report this commentShhh! Don't mention Ron Paul - Ooops I just did!
mattghg
January 4th, 2012 5:27pm Report this comment@Sean O'Hare, I was waiting for that!
Sir Graphus
January 4th, 2012 6:02pm Report this commentIt's OK, Sean O'Hare, nobody noticed; I think you got away with it.
David Bouvier
January 4th, 2012 9:47pm Report this commentVulture - is it too obvious to point out that McCain-Romney was a primary amoung republican voters, wheras the general election will require a plurality of all voters.
Different questions. Different answers.
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