What to expect in New Hampshire

Tonight's New Hampshire primary is very unlikely to provide the sort of razor-thin margin we saw in Iowa last week. Mitt Romney looks assured of a comfortable win – Nate Silver's poll-based model (above) gives him a 98 per cent chance of victory. If one of the others did somehow beat him, it'd be the biggest upset of any modern US primary. The only real questions are just how comfortable it'll be (20 points? 30? or just 10?), and who will come second.

The polls suggest the battle for runner-up will be between Ron Paul and Jon Huntsman. Paul is the favourite to take it, but the momentum of the past few days has been with Huntsman. Santorum and Gingrich look to be within striking distance, but theirs will more likely be a fight for fourth.

In the end, though, not much about the Republican race is likely to change tonight, with Romney further cementing his position as presumptive nominee. Paul might manage a similar share of the vote to the 21 per cent he managed in Iowa, but he doesn't have much strength in the states beyond. Huntsman may garner some headlines, especially if he finishes second, but he's focused all his efforts on New Hampshire and is languishing on just 1 per cent in Gallup's national tracking poll. As for Santorum and Gingrich, their aim is to challenge Romney in South Carolina next week, and whichever of them performs most strongly (or, perhaps, least poorly) tonight will probably be in best shape to do so.

And then there's Rick Perry, who decided to soldier on even after his lacklustre fifth place in Iowa. He won't be troubling the top five in New Hampshire, though, as he's on just 1 per cent in the polls there – he might even finish behind little-known candidate Buddy Roemer. Perry's campaigning in South Carolina instead, which will probably be the last hurrah of his 2012 campaign.