A green-light for HS2 — but the coalition's political instincts should tell it to stop
Matthew Sinclair 8:20pm
Earlier today, the Government announced that it is still planning to go ahead with a new
high-speed rail line that will reach Birmingham by 2026, and then be connected to Manchester and Leeds. And it's doing so in the face of widespread scepticism among the public and business leaders.
When we at the TPA commissioned YouGov to test public support for different cuts in public spending, 48 per cent of the public supported cutting the project against just 34 per cent opposed. While organisations like the CBI back high-speed rail, the Institute of Directors (IoD) actually asked their members and found that 38 per cent thought HS2 would represent poor value for money, against 30 per cent who thought it would represent good value. And more of them prioritise improvements to the motorway network, the local road network, existing intercity rail, commuter rail and local services like the London Underground above high-speed rail.
Is it really wise to go ahead with an investment of this scale when the public is so unconvinced? After all, ministers need to back the scheme not just today but through years of painful austerity before construction even starts. The debate over whether HS2 goes ahead isn’t done yet.
Almost everyone seems to acknowledge that the business case is weak. Looking at the original case for the line, our research found it was based on a number of implausible assumptions. And the updated business case released for the consultation was little better. So those backing the line have retreated to the idea that this is all about capacity, and the high speed is just a kind of pleasant side-effect. But Chris Stokes, an experienced rail executive, has set out a plan to massively increase capacity on the route with incremental measures that don’t have the huge all-or-nothing cost of HS2. Network Rail has argued incremental improvements would cause disruption on the existing network, but entirely rebuilding Euston will be at least as disruptive.
And if capacity was the big issue, surely we would focus on where the trains are the most overcrowded? Tim Leunig of the London School of Economics has written today that even ‘if the number of people coming into Euston doubles, and even if all of those extra are on services with no seats, and even if we add no more capacity, Euston would still be less overcrowded than services to London Bridge or Waterloo.’
It will be particularly hard to stand by this scheme because the Government still hasn’t been honest about either the consequences, or the cost. Ministers are still putting the cost at £32 billion, well over £1,000 for every family in Britain, But that is under plans that would see major towns like Coventry and Stoke-on-Trent getting slower and less frequent services; fares going up by 27 per cent above inflation; huge pressure on the London Underground connections at Euston, which Boris Johnson has said would be impossible to sustain without ‘Crossrail 2’; and significant impacts on the local environment along the route, where there will be pressure to drive the route underground. Again, Boris Johnson is saying that large parts of the route in London should be a tunnel.
Ministers promise that none of this will come to pass; that the fresh capacity will mean some new golden age, with competition driving down fares, and ample room for new services to towns on the existing route. But their business plan includes, for example, £5.4 billion in savings from reductions to existing services and the revenue from an ongoing rise in fares. If instead they are subsidising new routes — which will make a lot less commercial sense with the Birmingham traffic on the new line — and fares aren’t rising, then the cost to taxpayers will be a lot higher. Chris Stokes produced a rough estimate for the TPA that it could increase from £17.1 billion to £45.5 billion.
Napoleon rallied his troops at Waterloo by telling them that the approaching Prussians were actually French reinforcements. That kind of optimistic deception can work for a while but it
doesn’t last. At some point reality kicks it, and panic with it. In the case of HS2, it would be better for the government to quit kidding the public, and produce a proper comparison between
high-speed rail and its strategic alternatives. We need a full account of the costs and of the consequences. So forget today's green-light — this project needs to be put on hold.
Matthew Sinclair is director of the Taxpayers' Alliance.
Previous
Ed P
January 10th, 2012 8:52pm Report this commentWhy is this misjudged project taxpayer-funded? If it's worthwhile, private industry would raise capital for it. It's just another vanity project for politicians - we get rid of the worst spendthrifts in recent history and then another lot come along to piss tax revenues away.
RCE
January 10th, 2012 8:56pm Report this commentAnd all for 40 minutes off the journey time. Sheer lunacy.
Faceless Bureaucrat
January 10th, 2012 9:24pm Report this commentWhy did the Government not consider The Bow Group's alternative option?
Purpleline
January 10th, 2012 9:26pm Report this commentIf the coalition really wanted to be radical and put the UK back on the World stage, it would start negotiatinf with Canada, Denmark and Iceland to construct a tunnel under the North Atlantic. UK - Iceland- Greenland then on to Nova Scotia.
With a pipeline project to bring Canadian Tar sands crude to the UK. The pipeline could be linked or separate from the above project.
We must look west this would be good for Ireland as well and would create a trade link direct route with one of our close commonwealth daughters.
telemachus'
January 10th, 2012 9:36pm Report this commentMost Brits cannot afford to even get on a train these days. Now they have stolen what little benefits are allocated to the poor and deprived of our cities, why not invest in cheap travel for the bulk of the population to let them escape from misery from time to time, instead of throwing more amd more resources to pamper the city classes.
Michel d'Anjou
January 10th, 2012 9:47pm Report this commentJust for the record the IoD dosen't poll its members only those that have put themselves forward to be polled. The member has to take the initiative, so results are probably not representative of the membership as a whole. That said, I suspect the membership as a whole would reject this project as not good use of taxpayers money.
Kestrel Sprite
January 10th, 2012 10:20pm Report this commentIf HS2 was such a brilliant idea some entrepreneurs would have built it already. Instead of being a brilliant idea however, it is just a money pit that will soak up billions in construction and yet further billions in unending subsidies because rail is no longer a cost-effective transportation medium.
2trueblue
January 10th, 2012 10:25pm Report this commentWhat exiting things will one do with the extra 20mins saved by travelling on this new train?
Russell
January 10th, 2012 10:50pm Report this commentGreat to see a government without Balls with them if you follow me.
Time to think ahead 20 to 50 years and what people will want then.
Dan Stocks
January 10th, 2012 10:58pm Report this commentWhy is it that you can build a massively expensive rail line through beautiful countryside and that's 'sustainable' and trendy, but you can't build a new 2 mile runway at a busy airport because it's an ecological disaster? Also how long will it take for the wonderful project to cost £100 billion because it was the 'wrong sort of rock' in the tunnels?
perdix
January 10th, 2012 11:08pm Report this commentThis article and some of the comments on here explains why this country is so backward and lacking in faith in itself.
Simon
January 10th, 2012 11:19pm Report this commentI have not really been following this, but it does seem an awful lot of money to spend in straitened times. What puzzles me, though, is rebuilding Euston. Is HS2 really going to be unconnected to the high-speed cross-Channel route?
Faceless Bureaucrat
January 10th, 2012 11:19pm Report this commentAnd of course, the contract to build this White Elephant will definitely go to a UK company - won't it?...
In2minds
January 10th, 2012 11:28pm Report this commentHS2 goes ahead because it's an EU project and Dave loves the EU.
Cynic
January 10th, 2012 11:32pm Report this commentThis will be yet another vanity project (more like an EU directive, in fact) that will be massively over budget and provide next to no improvement. Not Value For Money in any way, shape or form. If you're going to plough that much money into infrastructure, let it provide something much better than shaving a few minutes off the journey time between London and Birmingham, which will be lost at either end and which will come at the cost of ruining some lovely countryside.
David Lindsay
January 11th, 2012 12:13am Report this commentToday is a great day for those who cherish the traditional British rural environment, for which railways were invented but which nothing has damaged more than the colossally expensive expansion of the road network, and for those who believe in harnessing the power of the State in the service of economic, social and cultural goods, including business. Or, as we are otherwise known, conservatives. Historically, Tories. Including the Tories who were crucial to the foundation and development of the Labour Movement.
As it took shape, Labour adapted itself both to Radical Liberalism and to populist Toryism, depending on the pre-existing culture at least of its target electorate. Both were very open to central and local government action in the service of their communities.
Did I say that business was an economic, social and cultural good properly served by State action? Oh, yes, indeed. Privatisation, globalisation, deregulation and demutualisation have turned out, in the most spectacular fashion, to have been anything but fiscally responsible. The same is true of a generation of scorn for full employment, leading to the massively increased benefit dependency of the 1980s and the institutionalisation of that mass indolence down to the present day.
But all of that has suffered a blow today. Let that blow be the first of many.
Fergus Pickering
January 11th, 2012 1:41am Report this commentSimon, my dear chap, do you know where Euston and Saint Pancras are? The walk from one to the other is all of five minutes.
Fergus Pickering
January 11th, 2012 1:45am Report this commentEvery new railway anywhere was fiercely opposed in its day, mostly by rich people. I think this is a lovely idea, stirring really. And of course it is not just to Birmingham as any fule no.
Boudicca
January 11th, 2012 7:56am Report this commentWell Cameron's had his war - in Libya. Now he wants his massive publicly-funded memorial built, nevermind that the economics of the scheme don't add up and we are up to our eyeballs in debt already.
HS2 will be a massive white elephant - a scar across the face of England - and for what. To appease the EU: it is part of the Trans National European Transport network. The Commissars want it and what the Commissars want, they get from LibLabCON.
Heartless Curmudgeon
January 11th, 2012 9:03am Report this commentThe most terrifying sight in the Military? An officer with a map.
The most terrifying sight in Civvy Street? The H2B trying to please the EUSSR with a vanity plan for HS2.
BS Crawford
January 11th, 2012 9:20am Report this commentIf there was that much demand for fast travel from London to The Midlands, Manchester, and beyond there would be scheduled airlines slaying each other to fly those routes. I don't think that the demand is there for the fast travel: the airlines don't operate from the London airports to Birmingham, although there are some services to manchester and Newcastle, as well as the Northern British airports of Glasgow and Edinburgh. If money could be made doing it you can bet your last pound the Ryan Air and Mr O'Leary would be doing it.
Rhoda Klapp
January 11th, 2012 9:22am Report this commentThis thing is going to take as long as the entire 19th century construction of the railway network by men with shovels and wheelbarrows. Why? That network was built with private money (yes, bribery and arm-twisting too) and provided a new dimension in transport.
This one provides no new dimension. It reuires massive subsidy, for ever, to compete with roads and tax-shackled air. It makes no commercial sense. I won't bother with the environmental nimby stance, it is the money which is the crucial issue, and this is a waste of it. The supporters are of two kinds. Those who like trians, and while I can't argue with that, I don't see why I have to pay for it, and those who stand to dip their snouts in the trough. For the main motivation here is the attraction of a pile of money. Money for lawyers, money for project planners, money for councils, your money, my money, all there for the taking. If it overruns, why there's even more money (is that why these things always overrrun?). Bad. Wrong.
TomTom
January 11th, 2012 9:22am Report this commentIt is a TENS Project favoured by Jacques Delors that has now arrived in the UK much like the Stuttgart21 Protests against its building there, people will learn that EU Projects are unstoppable.
As for build-out to Leeds or Manchester, that is a joke because the object is to link Southern England to the EU rather than The North. It is just like those joke Eurostar trains that used to sit in Doncaster once the great dream of a Northern link to Eurotunnel died.
This is an EU Project to bind Southern England to Northern France asnd has no relevance to Northern England which will probably join an Independent Scotland
Simon
January 11th, 2012 10:27am Report this commentFergus, I know very well where both Euston and St. Pancras stations are. A five minute walk between stations does not make for a high speed rail network!
perdix
January 11th, 2012 10:42am Report this commentShow me a link to any article/document which says this is an EU inspired project.
Publius
January 11th, 2012 10:53am Report this commentFergus Pickering writes:
"Simon, my dear chap, do you know where Euston and Saint Pancras are? The walk from one to the other is all of five minutes."
Fergus, are you sure you're not confusing St Pancras and Kings Cross? That indeed is about a five minute walk -- with all the tunnels, walks and guided paths.
But Euston to St Pancras is nearer a 15 minute brisk walk.
Dimoto
January 11th, 2012 4:21pm Report this commentIt isn't an EU project, it's the strange child of coalition greenery with the impossibility of expanding Heathrow.
I'm pretty neutral (it could spawn a London - Brum corridor, perhaps that's what the antis fear), but the estuary airport and the Severn barrage should have priority.
Both could be done with private funding and both would create real wealth.
Robert Christopher
January 11th, 2012 4:59pm Report this commentBoondoggle!
Jon Stack
January 11th, 2012 10:35pm Report this commentThe railway equivalent of the near deserted M6 toll.
Back to top