The Obama-Romney electoral map
Jonathan Jones 12:15pm
Of course, Mitt Romney hasn't secured the Republican nomination yet. But now that the bookies have him odds on at 1/9, it's definitely worth thinking about how he'd shape up against Barack
Obama. Does he have much of a chance? Well, yes, actually. The head-to-head
polls so far point to a close fight between Obama and Romney. And Obama's approval ratings and GDP growth forecasts — better predictors of the result at this stage — also point to a very tight election. It's
shaping up to be one of those elections where the key to victory is not the national popular vote, but the Electoral College. It'll be winning each individual state, and its electoral votes, that
matters. 270 is the target.
The map above — which I produced at 270towin.com based on recent polls and previous results — shows the states likely to be carried by Obama (blue) and Romney (red) if the national vote is as close as it looks now. Of course it's just a rough guide: it's not unfeasible, for instance, that Obama could win the red-shaded state of Indiana (which he carried in '08). And, of course, not all of the unshaded states are equal: Obama is much more likely to win Michigan (which has voted Democrat since 1992) than South Carolina (which hasn't since 1976). But if the election is close, the outcome will probably be decided by some combination of those 11 unshaded states. These are the 2012 swing states.
On the face of it, this looks like advantage Obama. The blue states above give a total of 217 electoral votes, compared to 171 from the red states. This means Obama needs just 53 of the swing states' 150 electoral votes to reach that magic 270, while Romney needs 99. Obama could achieve that with any three of the four largest states — Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Michigan — while Romney would have to carry at least six states to win.
These are the sorts of calculations that determine a campaign's strategy: where to concentrate ads, candidate appearances and organisation. A couple of weeks ago, Obama's campaign manager Jim Messina presented a video laying out five possible ‘paths’ to the nomination, such as the ‘South Path’ which relies on winning North Carolina and Virginia and the ‘Midwest Path’ whereby Obama takes Ohio and Iowa. Unlike my map, though, Messina starts with the assumption that Obama carries every state John Kerry won in 2004. But that's by no means certain, with polls showing Romney ahead in New Hampshire and Obama looking vulnerable in Pennsylvania and Michigan. Game on, as they say.
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RMH
January 12th, 2012 12:33pm Report this commentWay too early to say really, but the whole game is as you say "270" or bust.
Florida and Ohio being the two key states.
Allan
January 12th, 2012 3:07pm Report this commentHere is an interactive version of Mr. Jones' 2012 map. Use it as a starting point to create your own prediction for the election.
http://bit.ly/zhFmNI
Note the 'Road to 270' feature below the map, which lets you see each possible combination to reach 270 electoral votes given the map that is currently displayed.
Tariq
January 12th, 2012 3:39pm Report this commentThe Deep South has been reliably Republican since Goldwater, but will it automatically vote for a GOP candidate who isn't Protestant?
Augustus
January 12th, 2012 4:30pm Report this commentThe grass roots Republicans who Mitt Romney will need to win the election will not be enthusiastic. Remember that Romney could not even beat John McCain for the 2008 nomination, and McCain couldn't even beat Obama. He's worse than a retread. But the sorriest fact of all is that his competition is even worse. America could potentially rise again, but it won't be the politicians who do it. The people will have to do so themselves, under much better leadership than they're getting.
David Lindsay
January 12th, 2012 4:33pm Report this commentA startling outbreak of economic populism among those seeking to stop Mitt Romney. The Democrats absorbed most of the old Northeastern Republicans, making themselves financially dependent on holding to a combination of liberal social policies and the economic policies favored by, because favoring, big business.
Whereas the Republicans absorbed most of the old Southern Democrats, making themselves electorally dependent on holding to social conservatism. That ought also to have made them electorally dependent on holding to economic populism. Somehow, though, it never did.
Until now.
The impending Romney nomination makes it look as if the GOP has reverted to being the party of big business social liberalism, with what used to be called liberal interventionism thrown in, but of nothing else.
That is nowhere near a large enough constituency to carry the Electoral College, or to win or keep control of either House of Congress. But, especially if accompanied by at least lip service to conservative social principles and to international nonintervention, economic populism is. That is the rising Republican challenge to the Democrats. Their answer should be that their economic populism is integrated with, not lip service to, but the reality of conservative social policies and international nonintervention.
There is no conceivable policy reason for the supporters of any other Republican candidate to vote for Mitt Romney. Let them be given at least some policy reason to vote for Barack Obama. And even more to vote for the Democratic nominee in 2016. That said, if this trend leads the GOP to nominate an economically populist, socially conservative noninterventionist in 2016 or 2020, then, at least in the absence of such a Democratic nominee, the Republicans would have provided us with our candidate, whom we should then do everything in power to elect.
SR
January 12th, 2012 5:18pm Report this commentRomney has Utah? What a surprise..
David Ragsdale
January 12th, 2012 5:51pm Report this commentWhy are South Carolina and Arizona not shaded red? I doubt very much that these states which went solidly red in 2008 have suddenly fallen for Obama.
No this map looks like it was taken right out of the press releases of the Obama re-elect.
Try again
Garry
January 12th, 2012 6:14pm Report this commentThe electoral college an albatross on our electoral process? Would we be better off without it?
jrc
January 14th, 2012 3:02am Report this commentRomney will not win and mark my word...Hillary wants to be president in 2016 and she will join the ticket as TIME magazine is predicting..if this happens game over.Joining the ticket it jumps starts her bid for 2016 and the election is a blowout..If not Romney has a chance ,but Obama is the favorite...as bad as things are Obama still leads Romney slightly ..just shows how weak Romney is
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