Osborne sparks the unionists’ fightback

Chris M

Just wait until they hear that they'll get saddled with their fair share of the UK's debt when they leave and see whether they're still keen or not...

Paul Danon

If England leaves the EU, there might be border-guards at Hadrian's wall and restrictions on what work Scots here could do. There could be a citizenship-choice for Scots in England which could then impact their residency-status. I actually want such independence to happen but, unlike with Ireland, the break must be total - no right of abode, no voting in elections.

Baroness Helena Handcart QC

Yes, one way or another, we're headed for the United Federation. What's the problem with that, exactly?

michael

We the Union need a referendum to decide whether an independent Scotland should be allowed to remain within our currency block.
British democracy is not a one way convenience.

TomTom

Scottish banknotes ? This is farcical. Yes it is covered in The Act of Union 1707 but really, Scots are more interested in the colour of English money coming North and Salmond is simply trying to keep the Barnett Formula intact. I bet it will NOT be touched by Osborne even though it is like Greek Bailout Funding for a dodgy banking system after the Darien Scheme and its repeat performance Scottish Bank Bust 2007.

Salmond knows how to yank Osborne's chain and he will get even more cream as England faces spending cuts. I fully expect each MSP to have new suits made with gold thread at taxpayer expense when Osborne gets down to business

Percy

They want to keep Sterling, presumably staying in some sort of monetary Union with the rest of the UK? The Scots Nats whining about independence yet too chicken to really go for it.... pathetic. Well done Dave for well and truely calling their bluff.

Nickle

They could have independence.

1. They take a Barnet formula share of the debt.

2. They leave sterling.

3. If they don't, then the rump vetoes their membership of the EU until they play ball.

Kittler

What is the ideology of Osborne and the Conservatives with opposition to Independence.
Do they favour Dependence?
Hostile to patriotism, national identity or sovereignty?
Are they believers in centralism?
Do they fear the reduction in size and power of their State.
Why are they at one with Miliband and Labour on this?

Chris

Looking at how the government has decided to bully and cajole the Scots you have to assume that its aim is to make sure there is an acrimonious break up of the United Kingdom.

Peter Jackson

Why would there be border guards on Hadrian's Wall, which is a long way from being the border between the two countries?

Alan Douglas

On the other hand, losing all those automatic Labour seats from Westminster might just give us sensible government in England ? Same goes for Wales if they really want to split.

Alan Douglas

George Shepherd

It will be Devo Max for Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales - and what's to stop London, SE England doing the same

Devo Max is a gift for centre right parties as small scale local government will make tax and spend completely transparent

This may start as a debate about Scots vs English but will end as a debate about tax and spend

The Tories may feel they have to go through the motions of pushing the Unionist cause but in time, surely, they will see that Devo Max is an opportunity not a threat

If they don't then new centre right parties/groups will emerge to fill the vacuum

For e.g. Under Devo Max, Scotland will immediately reduce Corporation Tax to 10%

Interesting times!

TrevorsDen

Kittler - the Union is good for Scotland good for England good for Britiain. He is entitled to argue to keep it.

It is an absurd supposition that England would not only allow Scotland to keep the pound but also allow it to print the currency.
England is perfectly entitled to, and indeed must, keep control of its own currency.

Salmond proposing independence and then saying it would still use the pound shows his arrogance but also how shallow his real independence ambitions are.

Kittler

What terrible threat there Nickle.
Vetoed out of the EU.
Help, end up as poor as Norway and Switzerland.

Lonesome Dave

Hamish, there are a lot of proud and patriotic English folk born, bred and living between Hadrian's Wall and the Border who wish to have no part of Scotland.

Black & white are key colours up here but please don't confuse us with pandas!!

Northumberland is a key part of England so let's hear no more 'guards on the Wall' nonsense...

Richard T

"there wouldn’t be border guards on Hadrian’s Wall."

I'd certainly hope not, unless Salmond plans to claim most of Northumberland and substantial chunks of Cumbria and Tyne & Wear.

Pot Head

I bet if Scotland joined the Euro loads of businesses would relocate HQ's there if the SNP are canny with Corporation tax, and who knows what the Euro Zone will look like by 2015/16. Might be looking a lot better than the Sterling zone.

ratzo

Hamish talks of 'assumptions' and 'comfortable certainties' but in fact there has been plenty academic work done over the last decade or so to show that these are fair and reasonable points of view to hold.
Likewise, he claims that the SNP have been 'rocked' by Osborne. Yet, there is no evidence for such a claim, and since the Tories started their attacks this week, SNP membership has been increasing at a rate of between 120 to 160 per day.
And that's from an already high base, and on the back of a landslide victory at the last election.

Dennis Churchill

Paul Danon
January 13th, 2012 9:24am
The custom posts will be north of Hadrian’s Wall which is in England.
The most important aspect of this debate does not seem to be being raised: how does it affect England and the English? We are 80% plus of the population so if some federal settlement happens for Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland the English will start to ask what is in it for them.
Ireland and Scotland were of strategic rather than economic interest to England when it was threatened by continental European powers. An ageing and feminised Europe is no longer a military threat so what does England get from the United Kingdom?

Sean Haffey

I genuinely don't understand the Scottish independence movement. What do they think they will gain?

Phil Q

Why does Alex Salmond think that the EU would let Scotland keep the Pound? Every other country that has joined the EU has had to adopt the Euro. Scotland will have no say over whether this condition is waived or not,it is too small to have any influence in an EU of what would be 28 nations (assuming, of course, that there is an EU to join by 2014)

Rhoda Klapp

This is the level on which the debate is to take place? Fear, uncertainty and doubt about whether the Scots will be able to use the pound (of course they can, but not have a say in interest rates etc) or will get this that or the other benefit or right of EU membership or whatever? And all the squabbles here and elsewhere about detail, or the unsheathing of long-held resentments on both sides?

This debate should be about what the union delivers. For Scotland, for England and for the other consituents. About what it achieved, about what it can do now. A positive case for the union must be made, not just mealy-mouthed yeah-but crap. If it is no longer relevant to have a union, if it delivers nothing, or indeed if the Scottish electorate just want to move on anyway, then reasonable people can work out a way to separate which is in the interests of all parties. That is the crux of the matter. Now we need to know the wishes of the scottish people. As soon as practicable.

But no unilateral devo-max, there is no current provision for that and it would need to be fully described first and passed by westminster, or maybe the English and Welsh could have a vote.

Pettros

As a scot working in London George has my full support in trying to preserve the union.
Although if independance were to occur I assume I would get some kind of dual- citizenship or would I be told to pack my bags?

Robby

Barring a major political screw-up on the part of the Westminster Unionist politicians, a referendum would certainly vote for maintaining the Union. It is imperative that the campaign be handled civilly, as any attempt to belittle the separatist contingent would be counter-productive. On the subject of Sterling versus the Scottish pound, prior to the Euro, Belgium and Luxembourg used the Franc with exchange parity despite different tax on income, services and goods.Personally I believe that the silent majority of Scots would never vote for independence

fifer

Sean

Those in favour think they'll gain a great deal, including but not limited to the ability to opt out of illegal wars started at the behest of a failing foreign president and control over our natural resources.

The current value of the Norway Pension Fund (the sovereign wealth fund they've been stashing oil money in since 1990) is about half a *trillion* US dollars. What's the size of the UK's fund, earned off roughly the same amount of oil? Zero, because of London's 35 year track record of using all the oil money to bribe middle England by pretending they can get something for nothing.

As Kittler says, imagine ending up like Norway or Switzerland. What a terrible end that would be.

As for Dennis' question on how it would affect the English, unfortunately that's entirely irrelevant. Scotland will make its own mind up whether to stay or go - simple as that.

Dennis Churchill

Sean Haffey
January 13th, 2012 10:16am
What did Ireland gain?
What did Serbia gain?
We need to move the debate on to what the English can gain from this. It will have a profound effect on our politics and culture. Imagine if Scotland had been independent 20 years’ ago, think of the way England would be different. Even the journalists on the Spectator seem to have a disproportionate number of Scots’ names. Then we have politics, particularly the Labour party.

Dennis Churchill

fifer
January 13th, 2012 10:49am
You have misunderstood my point about the effect on the English.
I believe it is time to accept Scotland will go its own way and see the advantages for England .England will never be given a vote on independence so this is the best we can hope for.

Axstane

Sean Haffey

What they will gain is their freedom from hated English "domination". What England will gain is no more Scottish Prime Ministers, no more Scottish Chancellors of the Exchequer and no more jumped-up and totally insolvent Scottish banks.

So, as you see, both sides might gain.

As far as the Scots element of our armed forces - they are paid and will still remain as do Jamaicans, Canadians, Nepalese and South Africans all of whom serve alongside English and Irish troops.

The Scots will lose the armed forces bases which also provide a lot of peripheral employment.

They would have to apply to join the UN, the EU, NATO and the Commonwealth and none of those will be granted if UDI takes place so Salmond will reach an accommodation with Cameron or go without.

Ian Walker

If Scotland gets its own currency, will it be called the 'poond' ?

Sorry, couldn't resist. It's all moot anyway - most Scots are sensible and small-c conservative at heart. They won't vote for independence, or even for 'devo max'

Simon Stephenson.

"The key point here is that the SNP has been allowed to get away with arguing its case on a whole range of issues without so much as a query from Westminster for so long that it has managed to convert assumptions into fact. Salmond has claimed so often that Scotland will simply keep the pound and not been challenged over it that it has almost morphed into accepted reality."

It's a bit rich to single out the SNP for criticism in this regard, since the dishonest marketing approach to politics has been practised by every major UK party for at least the last 20 years. In a political environment where deceit and misrepresentation are considered normal, I accept that every serious player will be under irresistable pressure to use them - but as a society we believe it to be beneficial to outlaw commercial fraud, so why don't we take the same approach to politics?

EnglishmanwithScottishwife

Better one great nation than two or more crappy little ones.

Andrew Taylor

I am half Scottish and more than half interested.
If we look at this as a divorce, Mr Salmon and his band of acolytes require that one party has to sit in the corner and remain absolutely silent whilst acusations are thrown and the property is divided. The only role of that (silent) partner is to agree to the outcome without a murmur.
How would the Jocks have felt had the English decided that it was going to secede from the Union, particularly if the response to any input from the Scottish was, 'Shut up! It's nothing to do with you'.
This is a union. It has more than one member and everyone within it has a right to raise their views in the discussion over what is to become of that union. The outcome will be that the Scots will get their vote - but let's ensure now that we don't let the SNP bully everyone else into silence. Let's ensure that others can put their pennyworth into the hat for consideration.
The SNP's approach is obscene - it is deliberately divisive and intended to play to base tribalism. They seek at every turn to drive a wedge between the English and the Scots. One of the key reasons that they want such a long run into the referendum is, I am sure, to create a drip-drip-drip whinge machine which drives the English to distraction. To drag them to the conclusion that 'Good Riddance', is the only answer. To bring us to the, "Will no-one rid me of this turbulent priest?", point of view.
The truth is, I hope, that most Jocks realise that Scotland is stronger within rather than without the Union. There will always be an element whose tribalism does not allow them to see the logic of that and there will always be a group who blames every Scottish ill on the English - fascile, unsophisticated but effective.
Let's hope the tradional attributes of intelligence and calm reasoning wins through.

Barry B

It seems George Osborne's strategy is to ignore the English and threaten the Scots. If the unionists won the referendum in that way, it'd be a very degrading business all round.

Barry B

Is Paul Danon drunk?
What is all this 'impact on residency status' stuff you're talking about? Do you really think that in a mature and educated democracy like England, there are going to be mass forced deportations of residents because of their ethnicity?
Please note that the modern definition of a Scot is someone who lives in Scotland. This means that every one of our English friends and relatives who live among us will also be able to vote in the referndum. And none will be thrown out of the country, whatever the result.

I hope our neighbour next door shows the same decency

Holly ......

Salmond has led the romantic dream of
'independence',leaving out the 'not legally binding' bit of course.

The rug has been soundly pulled from under him and a swift kicking is now on the cards.

Maybe if the wee bod had been a tad more honest/genuine he would not find himself in the same camp as Bozo...Dithering about when, how, what etc.
All quite amusing really.
Being an English bod I couldn't give a T***
either way.

Salmond the 'genius eh?
More like he's just lost control of the whole affair with his shilly shallying game playing.

Holly ......

AND!
Without the independence rubbish Salmond has nothing.

Tankus

Would Scotland be even to make the pre requisites for monetary (euro) union ?,or would it have a black Wednesday of its own in trying ?

The BoE cannot be a lender of last resort to a foreign country , it wont set policy so that Scotland can make the requirements of entry ,so Scotland has to be fully independent before it can join , surely ?

Also with the march austerity euro treaty coming up...... socialist policy's (spend borrow deficit )will be made unlawful or the government will be fined and/or replaced like the Greeks and Italians.....

they want it ...let them have it

Heartless C.

For unionists, it will be a relief that the UK Government is fighting back at last (although this will be mixed with exasperation that it hasn’t happened sooner) . . .

Not only Unionists are exasperated by 'Government' shilly-shallying: many of us here are waiting still for The Bonfire of The QUANGOs, the Cast Iron thingamy-bob, and many other activities that will show this mundane 'Government' - apart from Mr Gove - are actually capable of doing something rather than prating and waiting. (Oh, and the lack-lustre H2B can Relate Publicly as he may, - nothing beats action!!)

Dennis Churchill

The effect on the EU and wider world will also depend on how independence will affect England rather than Scotland.
A EU with Scotland but without England would be very different than with England and without Scotland.
A more nationalistic right wing England is likely in the medium term .The Labour party will be weakened the profile of its English membership being heavily influenced by white collar public sector workers such as teachers. Will this further alienate the manual working class?
In economic terms I doubt anyone will notice until policies drift further apart and this will depend on freeing England from the EU’s regulatory burden.
What would the Westminster parliament have looked like without Scottish MPs after the last election?

Derek Drew

Let's not forget that Salmond and his fellow Rob Roys are only where they are because the Scots wanted to give Labour a kicking and will return to their roots whenever the next opportunity arises.

Dimoto

Any rational Scot who really thinks independence is best for Scotland, should be terrified that his/her future will be controlled by Salmond and co.

Clever parish-pump politician, great snake-oil salesman, but leader of Scotland for (say) 15-20 years ? (think Devalera).

There will be no effective opposition in Scotland for many years post-independence, and Salmond's cheapo brand of jingoism will be enough to keep the votes of the lumpen, socialist inclined mass.

The whole Scottish independnce project, as it currently exists, is entirely Salmond's private project.
Is there any other experienced, weighty Scot giving advice or opinion, or debating with Salmond on the project ? No.

They are sleep-walking into probably, their most important ever national decision.

paulg

Autumn, 2014, is the ideal time, the center remembrance will be well underway, salmonds first mistake.
The labour party must fight to the death to win the referendum, or face national destruction, let's hope it looks like the somme at the end.
A general election in spring2015, should be a walk in the park.
Either result is a good one.for conservatives. A win win

Simon Stephenson.

Andrew Taylor : 11.16am

"... there will always be a group who blames every Scottish ill on the English - fascile, unsophisticated but effective."

There is a sizeable group in every society which is so beholden to the concept of its own infallibility that the blaming of others for all its woes is as automatic as the assumption of credit for all its successes.

"Let's hope the tradional attributes of intelligence and calm reasoning wins through."

Not a snowball's chance in hell, I'm afraid. And why should we expect anything different when the media choice of nine tenths of the population focuses on the reinforcement of prejudice to the exclusion of any open-minded airing of issues?

Dimoto

When the referendum campaign begins, the Labour dirty tricks mob will be out in full force, trying to undermine Salmond 'n Sturgeon (it is a matter of survival for them).

As usual, this is bound to be counter-productive. The Nats will love it.

As for Indy Scotland's 10% corporate income tax - not if they want to join the Euro.

A Scottish Tobin tax could be interesting for Edinburgh though.

Dimoto

Ha-ha, well said Simon Stephenson.

On the Coffee-House, for example, the scapegoat is always "the immigrant".

I suspect Barry B is correct, but it would also be realistic to expect a backlash in both countries with some widespread nasty incidents.
That would be entirely down to irresponsible politicians.

Dennis Churchill

EnglishmanwithScottishwife
January 13th, 2012 11:1
In terms of size England will still be the fourth richest country in Europe and in terms of population one of the largest. Its population is increasing so quickly that Scotland’s 5 million (?) only represents 8% or so of the UK’s which will be back to its present level within a decade unless we stop mass immigration.
Because the Scots are so high profile in our politics and media it is easy to overestimate their population. Just look at the Spectator’s journalists and “our” political class. Then we have Andrew Marr, Andrew Neil, even George Galloway may go home. These will sound as strange talking about English politics as an Irish commentator would.

MajorFrustration

Lets not faff about either in or out. No devomax - thats just a means to cherry pick and leave the dross

Percy

As the SNP has always banged on about independence you'd think they might just be a little bit prepared for what independence might look like but just having watched the risible performance by Nicola Sturgeon on Question Time they are clearly, truely clueless.

Gawain

Who knows what the future will bring ? I suspect that Hamish is right & whatever the outcome Scotland will be a very different place. Given the fact that the are being led by a bunch of romantic fantasists my prediction is that will be an even more uncomfortable and pleasant place than it already is. I see that it has already made one of the pandas sick.

Fatbloke on tour

MF @ 1.39

DevoMax is a fig leaf to hide Wee Eck's fear, no certainty of failure.

The scots do not want independence.
He knows it and so he needs a booby prize.

A couple of years monkeying about with Corporation tax, transferring existing activity north of the border to a neo con economic wet dream of lowering the rate to half the UK rate, not producing any new growth means that he will be stealing bread out of the mouths of poor English children.

Then it will be England / Wales / NI wanting independence from Scotland.

He sees that as job done.

Cynic

We should fight to the death to stop "Devo Max". It'll be Scotland cherry picking the best and getting the English to fund them. I don't mind if the Scots are independent - it means I get my country back, too. I'm looking forward to an end to the West Lothian question and the Barnet formula. You're right there are a lot of issues that need to be sorted out; Scotland's proportion of the national debt, for example, and what to do about the Bank of Scotland and Royal Bank of Scotland. Scotland clearly cannot continue using the pound if they go - the euro has shown clearly what happens without a central Treasury and fiscal policy.

Cynic

@Pot Head "I bet if Scotland joined the Euro loads of businesses would relocate HQ's there if the SNP are canny with Corporation tax..." Considering the EU is heading for closer fiscal union and tax harmonisation I can't see that happening. Ireland's under pressure to raise taxes at the moment, so I don't think it's likely Scotland would be given any special privileges if they joined the euro.

Rhoda Klapp

Dennis, do you really think any Scot at all, never mind the media mafia, will return 'home' after independence?

In2minds

@Gawain - Scotland and the rumpus - "I see that it has already made one of the pandas sick"

Yes but as promised by Salmond it made the other one feel 'proud', so that's OK then.

amanfromMars

The arrogance and ignorance of English Parliamentarians [Postmodern Roundheads] in regard to the Clan Powers of Scotland's Laird Utility and Black Watch Facilities with Special Capabilities, reconfirms itself with such an unnecessary consideration/puny action.

Mac

George Osborne?????????????

Oh my god, are the Coalition being serious. Osborne had to be sneaked in and sneaked out the last time he ventured north of the border.

Fatbloke on tour

How would Scotland be able to raise government debt in the currency of another country?

Currency = UK
Central bank = BoE
Financial Regulation = Sniffy's contraptions.

So Wee Eck would need to raise money to cover the deficit and rollover Scotland's share of the national debt.

Consequently Scotland's debt office would need to sell Sterling bonds to the world. The yield on these bonds would then be heavily dependent on the strength of Sterling / monetary policy of another state / interest rates of this other state.

Would this be a reverse Harlot in a SB stylee?
All the responsibility but none of the power?

Scotland would end up like the flea on the dog.
Potential for irritation but the dog is in charge of where / when / how fast they are going.

Some independence that would be.

William Blakes Ghost

The thing is Salmond is so full of himself that he fails to realise, eventhough it is clearly intended, just exactly how much he has alienated the English. We owe them no favours and certainly should not bow to Salmond's delusional claims of what they are entitled to.

The Scots make up about 8% or so of the population. Thats all the percentage of the national assets they should be entitled to.

Should Scotland vote for independence, the UK Government must remember they no longer represent them and stand up for those who still belong to the UK.

So we should only let what in effect will be a 5th rate Haggis Republic use our currency under the same terms as Greece are allowed to use the Euro and the Scots should not be offered any special consideration regarding immigration, work opportunities and so forth (particularly as I doubt they will be a member of the EU automatically).

And once Scotland have received their just desserts we can celebrate because the discrimination against the English (beyond that perpertrated by Salmond and the SNP) (particularly Southern English) of the West Lothian Question and Barnett will effectively be over.

Then we can start to contemplate the way we address the EU now we will have rid ourselves of their Scottish Europhile friends.

There is a mighty big silver lining for suffering a northern land border and the loss of a nation that despised us.

William Blakes Ghost

Dennis Churchill,

Excluding Scotland from the result, Parliament would have looked like this after the 2010 election.

Conservatives 306
Labour 217
Libdem 46
DUP 8
Other 14

Conservative overall majority of 21.

Hardly sells the Union to Conservatives and other right of centre voters now does it?

Garve

Please don't flame me, but I thought I'd mention:-

Sterling is the currency of the UK.
The Bank of England is (in a roundabout way) owned by the UK.
The UK was formed as a Union of England & Scotland.
For either to leave would mean that Union was dissolved, the UK would no longer exist and there would be two successor states.
Why does either of those states then 'own' Sterling and the Bank of England instead of the other?

James

It is exceedingly unlikely that English consumers would agree to subsidise, by way of ROCS, the wind turbines of an independent Scotland.

Expect the financing of these projects to become difficult until the matter is settled.

Rhoda Klapp

Garve, Bank of England. There's a clue in the name.

ButcombeMan

Garve
The Bank of England is certainly the central bank of the United Kingdom but the Bank was founded in 1694 well before the Union. Should Scotland leave the Union the BofE lives on.

Scottish notes are already very difficult to pass in England, they would get progressively more difficult if full independence looks like happenning.

Worse, any Scottish resident with substantial moveable assets would be very wise to consider moving some assets south of the border should it look as though Salmond is going to get his way.

Salmonds "arc of prosperity" with Scotland as a member was always an illusion. He should have taken more water with it. The Scots have never been able to manage money which is why they worry about it so much. The Scottish debt in the Darien scheme was a key to the Union. Look it up.

Salmond has not understood, that because the UK has bailed out Scottish based Banks (whose demise was encouraged by what looks like an economically illiterate push from Salmond) there will be precious little to
give a newly independent Scotland by way of a divorce settlement.

Salmond is a very slick salesman selling an unspecified product. The Scots will probably come to understand that.

Peter Jackson

Garve,
Nearly right, but it's the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, so it would still exist

Fatbloke on tour

Garve @ 5.24

If Scotland leaves the UK will still exist.
It will be smaller but it will still exist.
Sterling and the BoE are UK constructs.

Garve

Fatbloke on tour

I don't believe the UK would still exist, but put that to one side.

What if Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland all individually vote for independence? Is there still a 'United Kingdom of England' which automatically is the only owner of the currency and the bank?

Rhoda Klapp

I've read quite a few of your comments and thought you were smarter than that. 'The clues in the name'? Is the English Channel owned by England?

Scriblerus

No Garve, the UK is the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, without Scotland it would be the United Kingdom of Britain and Northern Ireland.

Garve

Because you say so Scribierus? Or have you been party to the ConDems post-independence planning meetings?

David Short

How is it that the Spectator, 'managed' by an expat Scot and edited by another one, does not realise that there are already Scottish bank notes, and that Hadrian's wall does not mark the border between Scotland and England. Wallsend is a town in the North East of England.

D. Short

If Scottish independence meant Andrew 'Brillo Pad' Neil being banned from late night BBC programmes we'd all vote for it!

Rhoda Klapp

Garve, the BoE predates the UK by thirteen years. It is therefore an English asset brought to the marriage. {Presumably we can take it back after the divorce.) It is also based in London. Why don't you keep the Bank of Scotland? Even Stevens.

Garve

That's a slightly better argument Rhoda.

Now, suppose we get married, and you've got a bank account with a fiver in it. We make the account a joint one, with my name on it. Then, 300 years later we get divorced with a million pounds in the account. Do you expect to keep it all because you set the account up before the wedding?