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Sunday, 15th January 2012

Miliband beats Miliband in the polls

Jonathan Jones 4:25pm

Ed Miliband's poll ratings are going from bad to disastrous at the moment. Last week his YouGov approval rating dropped to its worst ever, with just 20 per cent of respondents saying he's doing a good job, and 66 per cent saying he's doing a bad one. And today they slip even further. Again 20 per cent say he's doing ‘well’, but now 69 per cent say ‘badly’:

And, most worryingly for the Labour leader, the number of Labour voters giving him the thumbs down (49 per cent) now outnumbers those giving him the thumps up (46 per cent). That's compared to the 95 per cent of Tories who think Cameron's doing well, and the 72 per cent of Lib Dems for Clegg.

YouGov also try to find out whether it's Miliband's policies or his personality that are putting voters off. The answer seems to be ‘both’, but more personality than policies. In total, 70 per cent say he ‘does not look or sound like a possible Prime Minister’, while 11 per cent say he does. Meanwhile, 47 per cent say ‘his policies are wrong’, against 34 per cent who think ‘he has the right policies’. Labour voters are, naturally, more approving of his policies (75 per cent think he has the right ones), but still 70 per cent of them think he lacks prime ministerial qualities.

But who would people prefer as Labour leader? Ominously for Miliband, it's his brother who comes out clearly on top. Asked who'd make the best Labour leader, 21 per cent say the David Miliband, including 34 per cent of Labour supporters. He's followed by Alistair Darling (9 per cent), then Eds Miliband (7) and Balls (6). Interestingly, Yvette Cooper — the bookies' favourite to take the reins — gets just 4 per cent (and 5 per cent among Labour voters), although that's likely due to her being less well known than the others.

Which is to say, David Miliband may have lost out in the poll that counted a year-and-a-half ago — but he's exerting indirect pressure on his brother via the opinion polls now.

Filed under: Alistair Darling (197 more articles) , David Miliband (215 more articles) , Ed Balls (366 more articles) , Ed Miliband (698 more articles) , Labour (2142 more articles) , Polls (286 more articles) , UK politics (5408 more articles) , Yvette Cooper (46 more articles)

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David Lindsay

January 15th, 2012 4:44pm Report this comment

This morning, in post-liturgical conversation with an old friend who is PhD (Cantab), has Radio Four on all day, and so on, I found that he had no idea that Labour had won five by-election since Ed Miliband became Leader. The Blairite media's campaign of disinformation is having its desired effect, as these ratings demonstrate.

Mirtha Tidville

January 15th, 2012 5:01pm Report this comment

I wouldnt take this poll too seriously..it says that 95% of Tories think Cameron is doing a good job....

Jeremy

January 15th, 2012 5:11pm Report this comment

Jonathan Jones:

"...David Miliband..."

Just what the country needs - a Blairite glove puppet for the Americans.

Chris

January 15th, 2012 5:41pm Report this comment

Whilst I hate to feed the trolling of Mr (I presume he has no PhD) Lindsay, Labour's by-election victories are not that big a news. Governments tend not to win them, and the by-elections champions of recent years, the Lib Dems, are no in government.
Plus the locations were hardly in fertile grounds for the Tories or Lib Dems. Indeed they, apart from Inverclyde, were all Labour holds.
Such things are hardly sweeping indications of the strength of Miliband's Labour leadership.

DavidDP

January 15th, 2012 5:55pm Report this comment

The media, and probably your Cantab PhD friend, is able to understand that by-election victories in incredibly safe seats on very low turnouts are nothing to write home about.

tom jones

January 15th, 2012 6:06pm Report this comment

You can clearly "tell" when you look at leaders of parties whether or not they'll end up being PM and Ed doesn't have the "look." Cameron, Thatcher, Blair - they all had "it." Major didn't, but then he was never put to the public as a newbie. He already had time in office to prove himself. Since the 70s the only PM who didn't have "the look" was Major.

lloydj

January 15th, 2012 6:08pm Report this comment

And yesterday his 'friend' does a repositioning act to move to the centre ground for the next election (not a general election the leadership election!)

Holly ......

January 15th, 2012 6:39pm Report this comment

Coop. 5% among Labour voters, 4% everyone else, because she's 'less well known'???
Give us out here some credit FGS.
She's well known & despised,like her other half.....Mr Ed of Balls.
Also,knowing MilliD will never be PM either it's easy to safely 'favour' him.

jebediah

January 15th, 2012 6:48pm Report this comment

Yes Labour have held five seats. Bravo. A triumph. Ed's a genius. The poll ratings must be faked. After all how often do opposition parties hold onto their own seats mid-term?

Denial once more.

Axstane

January 15th, 2012 7:02pm Report this comment

That being the Miliband who condoned American torture and rendition and who allowed Baroness Upton to become the EU High Representative?

Wight Tory

January 15th, 2012 7:12pm Report this comment

The trouble for David is, that in unseating Ed, he'll be accused of the same thing as Ed currently gets....

So my guess, M's Balls will be the next leader

Magnolia

January 15th, 2012 8:05pm Report this comment

Ed was all over the place on Andrew Marr this morning.
When AM asked him about Lord Glasman's criticisms he actually said "Look, this is part of the gig of being the leader of the opposition, you get criticism and advise".
Sunday morning, a lot of oldies watching. If he's PM will that be a gig too? I thought a gig was a rock concert or a term used by it's star?!
He said that he was proud of using city money to put into the welfare state despite also taking credit for the phrase 'crony capitalism' even though DC was talking about making fat cat salaries transparent and increasing workers co-ops back in 2010.
He said 'tough times' and 'the next Labour government' and 'let me make this point' several times but the one that always gets me very cross is when he talks about 'this country' and out it came again when he said "I'm very clear about where we want to take this country". Yuk.

Julian F

January 15th, 2012 8:11pm Report this comment

David Lindsay - five by-elections in seats that were already held by Labour.

Mudplugger

January 15th, 2012 9:51pm Report this comment

Ed Miliband is already past the point of no return - the whole political reportage scene will now continue leaping on any opportunity to emphasise the bleeding obvious - Ed ain't PM material.

The issue for the Labour Party is whether it really wants to win the next election, or would rather sit it out and let the others take the vast amounts of flak inevitable over the next 5+ years.

We will officially know that answer to that if they dump Ed or cling on to him.

David Lindsay

January 15th, 2012 10:05pm Report this comment

Mirtha Tidville and Jeremy, but of course: Cameron's pet pollster, for a Murdoch paper.

Dennis Churchill

January 15th, 2012 10:40pm Report this comment

tom jones
January 15th, 2012 6:06pm
Yes I think you are right.
Politics is now marketed and political parties are brands. The leader has to look right as he or she is fundamental to the image.
Labour will have more problems with this than the other parties due to the nature of their membership and the involvement of the Trade Unions.

daniel maris

January 15th, 2012 11:14pm Report this comment

I agree Ed M. is failing badly in leading the Labour Party. And as Alan Johnson, with him it's much more about style than substance.

He doesn't seem the sort of guy who would tolerate a Thatcher style makeover - voice tuition and all the rest of it, but that is really what he needs if he wants to survive.

I don't think he looks serious enough in his face. There is far too much mobility - too much of the intellectual's enjoyment of argumentation. It comes across as somewhat juvenile I think.

And then the black suits, paradoxically send a rather gloomy message I think, that you are not going to have a good time with this guy...that he's not going to lead you to a good place.

He needs:

Glasses.

Strict control over his facial movements and vocal delivery (look at how hard Cameron strives to control his facial expressions).

He needs voice tuition, so his delivery is more straightforward and the vowels aren't tumbled-dried in his mouth.

He needs to wear a wider range of suits - or perhaps jackets and slacks.

More colourful ties.

David Lindsay

January 15th, 2012 11:15pm Report this comment

An 8.5 per cent swing from the Tories at the last one, after the euro non-veto, in eaxctly the sort of seat the failure to win which cost the Heir to Blair an overall majority.

Honestly, you people should be working for the BBC.

Peter From Maidstone

January 16th, 2012 8:59am Report this comment

David Lindsay, on a low turnout any sort of swing is meaningless. Why would Conservative voters turn out to vote in a solid Labour seat? I wouldn't. That isn't a swing. The story is that even Labour voters couldn't be bothered to vote.

Fergus Pickering

January 16th, 2012 9:41am Report this comment

Denis Churchill, the leader has ALWAYS had to look right. Macmillan looked much better than Butler. Douglas-Home, no fool, suffered from the way he looked. Foot looked unhinged. Kinnock looks the mouthy twit he is. The only Prime Minister of the last century who didn't look Prime Ministerial was Attlee.

Tankus

January 16th, 2012 10:11am Report this comment

meanwhile ...over on the telegraph comments
"David Lindsay has already set up this "new party" and said it was certain to stand in every seat in the UK at any election after 2009. The real number was, er, zero and it attracted no members apart from D Lindsay. The fantasist ran away in terror from running in his own home town. His idea of campaigning was to send an email in a false name to hundreds of journalists begging them to pay attention to D Lindsay. They ignored apart from The Times which exposed his stupidity. His fantasies of being a big player are laughed at by Durham students as he got sacked from this blog for faking his CV and pretending to be an academic" Martin Miller....
Not the same person ....one would hope

Dennis Churchill

January 16th, 2012 10:35am Report this comment

Fergus Pickering
January 16th, 2012 9:41am
Much more important now.
Miliband is too ‘foreign’ looking to be marketed as someone who identifies with the majority of the electorate and understands their concerns.
It would be interesting to see a breakdown of Labour party membership and compare it to the general population; I suspect they are much less ‘typical’ than Conservative party members who themselves will not be a typical cross section of the electorate.

libertarian

January 16th, 2012 10:37am Report this comment

What is the point of these polls, why ask the public and Labour voters its nothing to do with them.

Ed M was elected by the Unions for the Unions, the Unions pay for the Labour party. So why not just ask the Unions if they are happy?Simple really

Sir Everard Digby

January 16th, 2012 11:56am Report this comment

David Lindsay,

Examine the facts.

Since 1983 the Conservatives have won only one seat from Labour in a by -election; that was possibly a protest vote over
expenses claims

So the trend continues - what of it? It does not suggest anything good for Milliband(E)as it did not for Michael Foot or Neil Kinnock.

Nor does it warrant a conspiracy theory.

starfish

January 16th, 2012 12:37pm Report this comment

The Blairite media's campaign of disinformation is having its desired effect, as these ratings demonstrate

Really?

The BBC shouts every 'win' (actually a 'hold') from the rooftops and takes every opportunity to boost Dead Ed

I think even they are starting to lose faith after the train wreck of an interview on R4 last week

If Dead Ed was interviewed with half the vindictiveness and hyperbole reserved for Tory ministers or the PM he would be buried

Cynic

January 16th, 2012 1:12pm Report this comment

"Yvette Cooper — the bookies' favourite to take the reins — gets just 4 per cent (and 5 per cent among Labour voters), although that's likely due to her being less well known than the others." Do you take us for ill-informed bumpkins? Yvette Balls has had more than enough exposure, thank you.

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