No more Mr Nice Guy

So Jon Huntsman is dropping out of the US Presidential race today. Apparently a battle with Rick Perry for fifth in South Carolina didn't appeal. Even though he looked like the best bet to beat Obama, Huntsman was never likely to win the Republican nomination. When many Republicans were desperately searching for a more conservative alternative to Mitt Romney, running as the more moderate alternative to Mitt Romney wasn't going to be a winning strategy. This year of all years, you couldn't see a man who had served in the Obama administration as Ambassador to China and who tweeted ‘I believe in evolution and trust scientists on global warming. Call me crazy.’ becoming the Republican nominee. As Obama strategist David Axelrod says, ‘He was simply unwillingly to make the Faustian bargains with the Right that Romney has so willingly made’. In fact, there's been a lot of speculation that Huntsman’s campaign was never about winning in 2012, but preparing the ground for a 2016 or 2020 bid.

Like McCain in 2008, Huntsman put all his efforts into New Hampshire – a wise move, as he was never going to get that far with the very conservative Iowa Republicans. But there was a big flaw in that plan: Romney was also focusing on the New Hampshire primary (although he made a late decision to go for the win in Iowa too) and had been doing so for far longer – ever since his 2008 campaign in fact. Romney already had the state's Republican establishment locked down, and also had far more money to play with. The best Huntsman could hope for was a strong second, and in the end he fell short even of that. Despite a good final week, he could only manage third, six points adrift of Ron Paul. With no real bounce from New Hampshire and no money left, Huntsman’s withdrawal comes as no surprise.

Despite having often sniped at him for flip-flopping, Huntsman’s going to endorse Mitt Romney this afternoon. Already, all of his anti-Romney videos and websites have been taken down. But the real good news for Romney is that most of the five per cent or so of South Carolina Republicans who would’ve voted for Huntsman will likely now back him instead, making him the even stronger favourite there and for the nomination. In fact, poor results for Ricks Perry and Santorum in South Carolina could well see the field narrow to just three candidates – Romney, Paul and Gingrich – by next week.